The MLB Ace is Becoming an Endangered Species

[Vanimal46]

Ryan Isaac from the Ringer, who spent 10 years in baseball operations departments, wrote a fantastic article about the disappearance of an Ace starting pitcher.

Some interesting nuggets from the article:

- Baseball’s starting pitching club had already grown crowded and diluted over the past three years, averaging nearly 300 unique starting pitchers per season, but with instability further creeping into the upper crust, that club has begun opening its doors to more members than ever before.

- In the four-year span of 2008 to 2011, there were 16 instances of a qualifying starting pitcher averaging 7.0 IP or better per start with an ERA of 3.00 or lower - Over the next four years (2012 to 2015), seven starters combined to reach the mark 10 times - Not a single pitcher achieved the feat in 2016

Much more at the link here.  

[jimmer]

I guess it depends on what one looks at when considering what a pitcher needs to do to be considered an Ace nowadays.

 

-Do we still believe ERA is the best way to judge a pitcher?

-When talking about innings pitched per start, do we take into account the evolution of the game?  I don't believe for one second pitchers couldn't go longer in games if the way managing pitchers hadn't changed /evolved so much.  

[Vanimal46]

Ryan Isaac quantified an ace this way:

 

He will pitch effectively into the 7th inning every 5th day, resulting in a 220+ inning season.

 

Averages at least 1 K per inning

 

Plus command on his fastball sitting at least 92 MPH with good secondary pitches.

 

The ability to overcome and short comings in an outing.

[Vanimal46]

Also, couldn't we take into account that the game evolved because there is a lack of true ace pitchers in the game?

 

When I started becoming an avid baseball fan, there were 10-15 ace type pitchers. I'm still fascinated that for a period of time, Roy Halladay averaged a CG every 4 starts...

 

These days, Kershaw, Bumgarner, maybe Thor I'd consider as aces.

[biggentleben]

So, per his measures, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, Don Drysdale, Bob Gibson, and Steve Carlton all fail the ace test...

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Ryan Isaac quantified an ace this way:

He will pitch effectively into the 7th inning every 5th day, resulting in a 220+ inning season.

Averages at least 1 K per inning

Plus command on his fastball sitting at least 92 MPH with good secondary pitches.

The ability to overcome and short comings in an outing.

 

The FB speed is a bit silly. 

 

What matters is the ability to pitch deep into a game and to do so effectively. ERA may be a flawed stat, but over 200 innings, it does give you a reasonable sample as to how a pitcher actually pitched. Yes, it doesn't lend itself well on the repeatability scale, but most pitchers throwing 200 innings with 200+Ks are going to fall into that ace definition.  The ERA will usually look nice in that scenario as well. 

[bird]

That was an extremely insightful article by Ryan Isaac, so thanks, Vanimal.

 

If I'm a GM, i'm spending very little time and energy fretting about finding an ace, but I'm also not letting opportunities slip by either, knowing they're infrequent. I'm focusing on a conviction that the 6th inning needs to be owned by my starters 80% of the time over the course of a season if I want to ensure elite performance from my 7-man pen. And I believe you need exceptional results now from your 7-8-9 inning guys, which means the Twin's relief core is, well, uninspiring to say the least.

 

These days, it's a challenge to find starters who wouldn't be facing hitters for the 5th time by the time the 6th inning rolls around, especially when you're forced to deploy 10 starters over the course of a season. My thinking would be that the most practical way to reduce the stress which is the 6th inning would be as a first step to reduce the number of times I'm throwing someone out there, either a starter or reliever, who is just plain dreadful. And this means my focus is on building pitching depth at AAA as my line of defense. Finding truly elite pitchers over time, yes, but avoiding having starters that implode in the 2nd inning every third start comes first.

[spinowner]

 

 

-When talking about innings pitched per start, do we take into account the evolution of the game?  I don't believe for one second pitchers couldn't go longer in games if the way managing pitchers hadn't changed /evolved so much.  

It's not just the approach of managers. The approach of batters has also evolved. Far more batters work longer counts than in years past. Blyleven and Morris decry pitchers being removed based on pitch count but pitches per game has increased over the last 30 years.

[jimmer]

 

It's not just the approach of managers. The approach of batters has also evolved. Far more batters work longer counts than in years past. .

yeah, true, but part of the reason they do that is because they know the pitcher is on a pitch count and the good, patient teams, work that angle.

[gunnarthor]

I think lots of ip and not giving up runs - whether you measure that by ERA, ERA+, fip whatever, are probably the important things a starting pitcher can do. Doc Holliday, Maddux etc were certainly aces with lower strike out numbers. 

 

I've always found this interesting but being top 10 in both ERA+ and IP in the same season is actually pretty hard to do.  The pitchers that did it the most are pretty much all-timers.  

[Shaitan]

I'm sure it's a solid article (admitting I don't have time to read it right now), but defining an ace by statistics alone seems to miss the point.

 

To me, an ace has always been rare because I'd define it as "one of the best pitchers in the game," not something that needs to hit certain metrics. Rare by definition in the first place.

 

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm sure it's a solid article (admitting I don't have time to read it right now), but defining an ace by statistics alone seems to miss the point.

 

To me, an ace has always been rare because I'd define it as "one of the best pitchers in the game," not something that needs to hit certain metrics. Rare by definition in the first place.

The author of the article touched on that point as well. If you have to ask if a pitcher is an ace, he's not an ace. You'll know when you have one.