2017 Offseason Blueprint #1

[Mr. Brooks]

As far as the Cozart trade; I'm not going into it thinking he will cost a TON to acquire. I'm not trading a top 8 prospect for him by any means. I do think he would help a ton in the runs allowed department for 2017. And if that means Adalberto Mejia or Adam Brett Walker or Daniel Palka (not and) or someone in the 9-15 range, I'd do it for one year. But if the Reds are needing a Stewart/Gonsalves/Gordon/Jay/Kiriloff or anyone under 24 on the current mlb roster, I pass and move on.

Yeah I couldn't disagree more. No way I'd even consider trading a lot to ticket with immense power like Palka, or a guy who should be a steady but unspectacular SP like Mejia for a 1 year band aid with no bat like Cozart.

Why not just start Vielma at SS? He'd already be good defensively. Obviously his bat isn't ready, but neither is Cozart's.

[Willihammer]

If they can get Cozart for a guy who stands a very good chance of being a 40 man casualty then they should absolutely pull the trigger IMO.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Isn't Santana under 24? Is he close.....

[Guest]

I don't know how much, or how little, blame Molitor should have for how a pitcher develops. How much work specifically does Molitor do with any/all pitchers? I always assumed it was Neil Allen and Eddie Guardado in the majors, and their minor league coaches/development staff in the minors. If Molitor has more influence currently over how a pitcher is developed over time, I'd like to learn more about that.

 

Does anyone know, what is the development process currently like? I know it is going to be changing with new leadership, and I'm excited for those possibilities.

Thanks for putting out an interesting proposal for next year's roster and having good discussions.

[mazeville]

I don't mind this at all. I like the Dozier trade idea and the Santana trade idea. 

 

I probably keep my FA signings to a minimum while focusing on low risk/high reward guys for next year. This team is not going to contend next year, and I still focus on building a core of strong, young players and acquiring young pitching. 

 

I might sign Castro simply because we have so little catching. But I keep Escobar at short. And I definitely go with youth in the rotation, including May. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Danny Santana will turn 26 in a month. I don't view him as a prospect, or even a talent. If you can get ANYTHING for him, you do it. Otherwise, I don't see him on the roster next year as he is out of options and simply isn't all that good.

We can disagree on Cozart, that's cool. If Vielma is truly ready to come up, or if Escobar is fully healthy, then shortstop may be covered. I just don't value Palka or Walker the same, but that totally could be players I would regret trading later on.

Thanks everyone! This thread is fun, and I love twinsdaily for so many reasons. Among others, having the ability to do this sort of thing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Danny Santana will turn 26 in a month. I don't view him as a prospect, or even a talent. If you can get ANYTHING for him, you do it. Otherwise, I don't see him on the roster next year as he is out of options and simply isn't all that good.

We can disagree on Cozart, that's cool. If Vielma is truly ready to come up, or if Escobar is fully healthy, then shortstop may be covered. I just don't value Palka or Walker the same, but that totally could be players I would regret trading later on.

Thanks everyone! This thread is fun, and I love twinsdaily for so many reasons. Among others, having the ability to do this sort of thing.

 

Me neither, that was sarcasm....

[bluechipper]

 

I want the Twins to go after Jonathan Villar from the Brewers to play shortstop for the Twins. We need an upgrade with a guy with a stronger arm and a little more pop in his bat. I would offer the Brewers either Jorge Polanco as a second basemen or Trevor Plouffe as a third basemen. Not sure if that is enough, but I think Villar would be the short stop we have needed from a defensive perspective and bat for awhile now. Move Escobar back to his utility infielder role to fill in. I do not want Danny Santana anywhere near this Twins roster, he is a DFA non-tender candidate that strikes out way to much.

Danny Santana and Robbie Grossman do not need to be on the 2017 Twins, they are both defensive liabilities that strike out way to much.

Now that Arcia is ready, Villar is an interesting trade candidate. He's coming off a great season of .285/.369/.457 (.826) with 19 HRs and 62! SBs, so it's going to take a lot to get him I would think. I'd assume the Brewers would want pitching back, so I don't think Polanco would be enough alone. Maybe a package including Kohl Stewart (by rule, he has to be included in every prospect trade) would work.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Villar showed more power last year than he has EVER shown in the minors, and is pretty far below average defensively. I'm NOT saying he is Danny Santana 2.0, but I wouldn't overpay for him, especially if the Twins are trying to get better on defense.

[DocBauer]

I don't know if Cozart is THE answer at SS or not, but I like the idea. Doesn't mean I don't like Escobar, which, in fact, I do. Cozart helps the defense and pitching, no doubt. He's a ,240-.250 hitter but has a little pop too. If the cost is right, I could see this being smart. Kind of hate trading for 1 year though.

[bluechipper]

 

Villar showed more power last year than he has EVER shown in the minors, and is pretty far below average defensively. I'm NOT saying he is Danny Santana 2.0, but I wouldn't overpay for him, especially if the Twins are trying to get better on defense.

Yeah the fielding side for Villar would be the main area for concern. Offensively, he strikes out a lot, but draws a lot of walks too, and maybe he's just now developing his power as he matures. 

 

I don't know if the fit on the Twins would be right, but the idea of acquiring his offensive skill set sure is intriguing.

[mlhouse]

The Twins blueprint is pretty simple.  We are a rebuilding team that needs to get our prospects the time to develop.  

 

Unfortunately, the first step is to fire Paul Molitor and all of his staff.  THe Twins should have made a similar move in firing Gardenhire in 2013.  We need a manager and coaching staff that are orientated towards development and who have the patience to work with the young players.

 

The everyday lineup would be:

 

C   Mitch Garver   Stuart Turner

1B  Joe Mauer Kennys Vargas

2B  Brian Dozier

SS  Jorge Polanco

3B   Miguel Sano

 

LF  Eddie Rosario

CF  Byron Buxton

RF  Max Kepler

 

DH   Kenny Vargas, Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer

4th OF   Robbie Grossman

Utility INF  Eduardo Escobar

 

In the offseason we would try to make the best deal possible for Ervin Santana.  Assuming we do that the pitchers would be:

 

Starters:   Gibson

                 Berrios

 

The 3rd, 4th, and 5th starters would only be tentative to start the year.  Trevor May is the beginning 3rd starter.  Taylor Rogers is the 4th.  I probably put Santiago in the 5th starter role.

 

But, they are on a very short leash.  The next guy up is Stepen Gonsleves.  Then Jason Wheeler.  

 

 

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I get playing the kids. I do think they need a starting catcher, but I can agree with the rest of what you put.

-

That said, I will absolutely not understand AT ALL if the Twins don't trade Dozier this offseason. He is clearly at the peak of his value, and because they won't (and shouldn't) resign him to a longer deal, he isn't going to be with the team in 2 years. The longer he is with the team over the next 2 years, the less he will be worth in trade. I see almost no scenario where keeping him is valued higher than trading him, even if it is for lower level prospects.

-

And Taylor Rogers as a starter? He is Brian Duensing 2.0. The next right handed hitter he gets out will be his first. Keep him in the bullpen where he thrives. Gibson, Berrios, May, Santiago and Duffey would all work in your scenario over Rogers, but I think at least 1 starter is brought in from the outside, especially with a Brian Dozier trade.

-

Lastly, I do think the coaching staff will be completely new by 2018, or for certain 2019. But, just numbers wise, if they do go out and fire EVERYONE on the staff, who do they bring in for every position right away? It's not like current pitching coaches or hitting coaches on major league rosters leave their current jobs to make a lateral move. Some coaches will be back, not all, but throwing up your hands and firing everyone just to fire them doesn't make sense either.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins blueprint is pretty simple.  We are a rebuilding team that needs to get our prospects the time to develop.  

 

Unfortunately, the first step is to fire Paul Molitor and all of his staff.  THe Twins should have made a similar move in firing Gardenhire in 2013.  We need a manager and coaching staff that are orientated towards development and who have the patience to work with the young players.

 

The everyday lineup would be:

 

C   Mitch Garver   Stuart Turner

1B  Joe Mauer Kennys Vargas

2B  Brian Dozier

SS  Jorge Polanco

3B   Miguel Sano

 

LF  Eddie Rosario

CF  Byron Buxton

RF  Max Kepler

 

DH   Kenny Vargas, Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer

4th OF   Robbie Grossman

Utility INF  Eduardo Escobar

 

In the offseason we would try to make the best deal possible for Ervin Santana.  Assuming we do that the pitchers would be:

 

Starters:   Gibson

                 Berrios

 

The 3rd, 4th, and 5th starters would only be tentative to start the year.  Trevor May is the beginning 3rd starter.  Taylor Rogers is the 4th.  I probably put Santiago in the 5th starter role.

 

But, they are on a very short leash.  The next guy up is Stepen Gonsleves.  Then Jason Wheeler.  

 

Taylor Rogers is not a MLB SP. No way, imo.

Grossman is one of the worst defensive players in MLB, no way this team should have that on the roster. The pitchers need help. 

 

I can't see starting 2 rookie catchers, I think you need at least 1 guy that has been in the majors before.

 

No way I keep Dozier, they need more young players, that will help in 2020 and beyond.

[mlhouse]

 

Taylor Rogers is not a MLB SP. No way, imo.

Grossman is one of the worst defensive players in MLB, no way this team should have that on the roster. The pitchers need help. 

 

I can't see starting 2 rookie catchers, I think you need at least 1 guy that has been in the majors before.

 

No way I keep Dozier, they need more young players, that will help in 2020 and beyond.

  But you don't know, either, do you.  One of the main things a rebuilding team needs to do is find out, one way or the other, if a guy is going to make it.  YOu put Brad Havens and Frank VIola in the lineup. One made it, the other didn't. 

 

AS far as "one guy in the majors before", for what reason?  Turner and Garver are the potential backstops of the future.  Put them in the game and find out how it works.

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

You are right, we the fans don't know. I can look at stats and see that throughout his entire minor and major league career, Rogers has been death to lefties and awful against righties. That does not mean that he won't learn something new and become a good starting pitcher at some point. And I certainly know I will never be asked to make that decision.

I do think it is interesting that you want to play the kids (Turner and Garver) over Murphy, who is younger than Turner and only 4 months younger than Garvey. Murphy has a much better track record than either of those two, and at least we know Murphy can play defense at least at backup level in MLB. Wanting a legit starter upgrade isn't crazy though, especially with a young pitching staff.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  But you don't know, either, do you.  One of the main things a rebuilding team needs to do is find out, one way or the other, if a guy is going to make it.  YOu put Brad Havens and Frank VIola in the lineup. One made it, the other didn't. 

 

AS far as "one guy in the majors before", for what reason?  Turner and Garver are the potential backstops of the future.  Put them in the game and find out how it works.

 

He was pretty bad against righties. I don't know anything about the future, but you can look at the past and make predictions....I would be shocked if Rogers is a good MLB SP.

 

As for the catching, I think working with pitchers, understanding umpires, etc....all the non-game stuff, I think they need at least 1 guy that knows how that works. I could be wrong, but that's my thought. Also, neither even has, what 50 ABs in AAA? I am all for "play the young guys" as a strategy, you can do that with a young guy as the starter. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I could completely see an Escobar/Engelb Vielma type at SS instead of an outside trade. If Vielma can play defense well enough, we may not need a trade regardless. Or, obviously, if Escobar is healthy enough. I do think they acquire a catcher though to be a starter. Rob Antony has said as much after the season is over, that the main priority (this was before Falvey was brought on) is to fix the catcher position going in to next year.

I don't think that means they are completely going to hand it over to two players with zero experience. I just can't buy that. I also don't think that means they give big money to Wilson Ramos (with his injury history) or Matt Wieters, as he will also be expensive. To me, Jason Castro is the next biggest prize on the free agent market, mostly due to his framing ability. But if they were to bring in someone like Alex Avila, Drew Butera, Nick Hundley, Dioneer Navarro (he makes sense as a left handed hitter for a platoon with Murphy) I could see that too.

If they are going to trade prospects for a catcher, I could see looking to the Dodgers for Austin Barnes, the Padres for Austin Hedges or even a buy low like Derek Norris, the Cardinals for Carson Kelly, or a bunch of others. I don't know what they think of giving up prospects for someone, but this could be another angle to go.

What do people want to see done with the catcher position? We aren't getting Buster Posey, but I do think if the Twins can find someone who can frame at major league average (which is a HUGE jump from what they've had) control the running game, and help our pitching staff, they should do what it takes to help that position.

Other thoughts on players they could look to acquire?

[awinter]

 

I'll go with:

1) Hire a GM.

2) Hire a pitching coach

[Willihammer]

Stuart Turner batted .686 in AA as a 24 year old. As a (cherry-picked) comparison Pedro Florimon batted .741 at the same level at the same age.

 

Garver has done better but he's awfully old.

 

I would be shocked if the next mainstay at catcher is in the Twins system right now.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Stuart Turner batted .686 in AA as a 24 year old. As a (cherry-picked) comparison Pedro Florimon batted .741 at the same level at the same age.

 

Garver has done better but he's awfully old.

 

I would be shocked if the next mainstay at catcher is in the Twins system right now.

 

Your numbers seem high to me. Do you mean OPS?

[Willihammer]

 

Your numbers seem high to me. Do you mean OPS?

Ya

[Mike Sixel]

 

Stuart Turner batted .686 in AA as a 24 year old. As a (cherry-picked) comparison Pedro Florimon batted .741 at the same level at the same age.

 

Garver has done better but he's awfully old.

 

I would be shocked if the next mainstay at catcher is in the Twins system right now.

 

He's not old for a catching prospect, they move at a different rate than others. And, he's consistently, quickly, moved up since he was drafted out of college. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Agreed. I have hopes that either Turner or Garver or Murphy could be a solid catcher at the major league level. At least in a pairing, either 2 of these 3, or with another option brought in from the outside. There aren't generally Mauer's who are catching at 21, he was SO rare, that maybe we as Twins fans were naïve to think catchers develop like he does.

I'm NOT advocating for a 5 year max deal for a free agent catcher. I don't think that player is out there, and I definitely don't think that is a good deal for this team. But, if the Twins can bring in a catcher from the outside for a year or two (or more via trade) to solidify the position defensively and help the pitching staff, that is a good thing, right? I mean, we can HOPE that one of these guys really works out, or we can get a known quantity at a time when the pitching staff needs the most help.

[mlhouse]

 

He was pretty bad against righties. I don't know anything about the future, but you can look at the past and make predictions....I would be shocked if Rogers is a good MLB SP.

 

As for the catching, I think working with pitchers, understanding umpires, etc....all the non-game stuff, I think they need at least 1 guy that knows how that works. I could be wrong, but that's my thought. Also, neither even has, what 50 ABs in AAA? I am all for "play the young guys" as a strategy, you can do that with a young guy as the starter. 

 

And, I think that the probabilities are that he will not be a good MLB starting pitcher.  But, in the rebuild you just don't assume.  Put him out there every 5th day with the ball.  If he sucks, like he probably will, then that will be very apparent.  One of the main things in a rebuild is you have to find the failures too.  Give him a chance.  He already has some expereince at MLB level, so you can move on from him quickly.

 

AS far as teh young catchers, I think what you are saying demonstrates why this rebuilding process has been so long and so frustrating.  IN a rebuild that is what the coaches are for.  The previous and current managers and coaching staff want and expect their players to know stuff they don't know, and since they expect that they would rather play a replacement level player and not have to manage/coach than develop a player by teaching him the intricacies of the game.

 

In any event, the Twins need to commit to their young catchers and teach them the game.  In 1982 the team handed the job to Laudner.  Sure they had Sal Butera around and maybe that is what you do next season;  hand the job to Garver and keep some low level veteran around.  But why not make the full commitement, work with the catchers and pitchers, and hopefully one or both of these guys develops into a servicable catchers into the future.

[dxpavelka]

Not sure, but I think you may have just turned the clock back a few years and traded Dozier for Alex Meyer.

[mlhouse]

 

Agreed. I have hopes that either Turner or Garver or Murphy could be a solid catcher at the major league level. At least in a pairing, either 2 of these 3, or with another option brought in from the outside. There aren't generally Mauer's who are catching at 21, he was SO rare, that maybe we as Twins fans were naïve to think catchers develop like he does.

I'm NOT advocating for a 5 year max deal for a free agent catcher. I don't think that player is out there, and I definitely don't think that is a good deal for this team. But, if the Twins can bring in a catcher from the outside for a year or two (or more via trade) to solidify the position defensively and help the pitching staff, that is a good thing, right? I mean, we can HOPE that one of these guys really works out, or we can get a known quantity at a time when the pitching staff needs the most help.

 

Well, the problem with your argument is that neither Garver or Turner are 21.  Garver will be 26 years old before the start of next season.  Turner will be 25.  So, if you push off their major league debuts for a couple of years then you have missed their window..

 

The awful aspect about the catching position from a Twins perspective is Garver and Turner are the only reasonable prospects above rookie level baseball.

 

So, the "blueprint" for the catching perspective is to get Garver and Turner up, develop and evaluate them, and find what roles they can play going forward.  If one or both do not work out, then the catching position is going to have to be filled by catchers from outside the organization for several years.  Since these players would almost certainly be marginal level players at best, lets hope one or both of Garver and Turner can demonstrate they are MLB level players.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Not sure, but I think you may have just turned the clock back a few years and traded Dozier for Alex Meyer.

 

Meyer was a really good prospect, and he still could be in line to become a good pitcher. He has never been in Glasnow's league, at least as a prospect.

[DocBauer]

As far as catcher goes, I still the LH hitting and overall play of Centeno as a backup. But honest question, how much better are the Twins next season if they sign a veteran backstop for a season or two? I understand how valuable a quality backstop is, but on a rebuilding team like the Twins, does said veteran make enough of a difference vs playing someone like Garver?

[dxpavelka]

 

Meyer was a really good prospect, and he still could be in line to become a good pitcher. He has never been in Glasnow's league, at least as a prospect.

That's not what we were sold three years ago.