Article: Picking AL and NL MVPs

[Cody Christie]

One league has a pretty clear-cut choice as the regular season comes to a close. The other league's MVP race is a little more open-ended which can lead to quite the debate. Should the MVP go to the league's best player even if he's on a bad team? Or should the MVP be on a team that was in contention for the entire year?

 

In the middle of his recent hot streak, I wrote about Brian Dozier's chance at the AL's top honor. There's little chance the MVP would come from a team with over 100 losses but he could end up getting some top-10 votes. Selecting the top spot in the American League certainly comes with it's own array of challenges.American League MVP Race

For the second time in his young career, Mike Trout has surpassed 10 WAR according to Baseball Reference. FanGraphs has Trout a tick under 10 with a 9.4 WAR. Both of these totals are a full win higher than his next closest competitor, Mookie Betts.

 

Betts versus Trout is going to be the hot-button topic in the MVP race. Trout led all of baseball in runs, walks, OBP, and OPS + while playing terrific defense in center field. The Angels PR Department tweeted out a list of Trout's accomplishments this seasonand it's pretty remarkable. Betts led all of baseball in at-bats and total bases while playing defense that might have been better than Trout's.

 

The Angels haven't been within five games of first place since the middle of May. Betts and the Red Sox have been near the top of the AL East for most of the season. Since September 7, Boston has lead the East. Over the last month of the season, while being in the middle of the pennant race, Betts has hit .310/.373/.389 with seven extra-base hits.

 

Should the voting members of the BBWAA pick a very good player on a 90-win team? Or should the best player in baseball over the last couple of years get his second MVP award? Betts might have the narrative that voters tend to favor but Trout has been better than Betts so my vote goes to him.

 

Who should win? Trout

Who will win? Betts

Complete Ballot: 1. Trout, 2. Betts, 3. Josh Donaldson, 4. Jose Altuve, 5. Manny Machado, 6. Robinson Cano, 7. Adrian Beltre, 8. Dozier, 9. Francisco Lindor, 10. Corey Kluber

 

National League MVP Race

While the AL race might be close, the National League race could be a unanimous choice. The Chicago Cubs were the best team in baseball for most of the season. They won over 100 games and cruised to a division title in what had been one of the toughest divisions in recent years. Kris Bryant has been the best player in the league and he should easily win his first MVP.

 

Bryant has been impressive during his second full-season. He led the NL in runs while raising all of his offensive numbers. In 2015, he led the league with 199 strikeouts but he cut that number back to 154 this year. He's also been used at multiple defensive positions including third base, first base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions.

 

Corey Seager and Daniel Murphy will have a good battle for the NL's runner-up spot. Both players had very good seasons on teams that easily won their divisions. Seager's impressive rookie campaign could be the sign of future MVP awards. Murphy might be the missing link for a Nationals club that has struggled with finding post-season success.

 

Who should win? Bryant

Who will win? Bryant

Complete Ballot: 1. Bryant, 2. Seager, 3. Murphy, 4. Anthony Rizzo, 5. Freddie Freeman, 6. Max Scherzer, 7. Nolan Arenado, 8. Brandon Crawford, 9. Justin Turner, 10. Noah Syndergaard

 

How would you ballot look for each league? Leave a COMMENT and start this discussion.

 

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[Cody Christie]

Let me know your thoughts. Who would you pick in the AL? Trout? Betts? Someone else?

[Mike Sixel]

Trout. He's the best player....

[Pardon My Dinger]

Should probably be Trout, but will probably be Altuve, although I'd like for it to be Betts.

[jimmer]

Cody,

 

I agree with your 'should' wins and your 'will' wins. 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2016 by jimmer

[Bark's Lounge]

I am curious to see where David Ortiz ends up in the voting. In strictly a baseball common sense approach he should not win it, he is a one dimensional player, but I do not know who the voters are and it is not impossible to envision some kind of swell in nostalgia and admiration that leads to the ultimate personal baseball player prize.

 

He should definitely be in the conversation, he is definitely top ten, the OP seemingly does not agree, but the guy had a blockbuster season.

 

Not too shabby for a 40 year old.

[jimmer]

I agree with the OP, I wouldn't have Ortiz in the top 10 for MVP, because defense counts.

 

He deserves the Silver Slugger for DH, though.

Edited October 5, 2016 by jimmer

[Bark's Lounge]

 

I agree with the OP, I wouldn't have Ortiz in the top 10 for MVP, because defense counts.

 

He deserves the Silver Slugger for DH, though.

We'll have to agree to disagree. He is top ten in my world.

[jimmer]

 

We'll have to agree to disagree. He is top ten in my world.

I wouldn't be surprised if more deserving players get passed over by the writers and he gets some votes. Not for 1st, 2nd or 3rd, but maybe other spots (probably by Boston writers, at least).

[Bark's Lounge]

 

I wouldn't be surprised if more deserving players get passed over by the writers and he gets some votes. Not for 1st, 2nd or 3rd, but maybe other spots (probably by Boston writers, at least).

Yeah, we will see. I am curious.

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, we will see. I am curious.

Well, I never said he won't finish in the top 10.  That could happen.  Colon won CY Young in 2005, while Santana finished a distant 3rd for goodness sakes.  Anything can happen with these writers. 

Edited October 5, 2016 by jimmer

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Well, I never said he won't finish in the top 10.  That could happen.  Colon won CY Young in 2005, while Santana finished a distant 3rd for goodness sakes.  Anything can happen with these writers. 

Baseball writers have adapted some, but I do not think metrics are fully embraced as of now. It will happen though.

[Mike Sixel]

Ortiz will be in the top 5, probably the top 3, imo. Lots of love out there, and he was great at his job.

[Willihammer]

Not sure if relevant to the 2016 race but I was thinking of the 2012 season when Cabrera won the triple crown and Trout had him beat by multiple WARs, and the MVP went to Cabrera, and everyone was outraged, but then a few weeks after the vote an Oakland A's official somewhat quietly said their internal calculation of value gave Cabrera the edge?

 

Any guesses as to where the A's found the additional value?

[Comrade Bork]

For all us short people out there I want Altuve to win!!

[jimmer]

 

Ortiz will be in the top 5, probably the top 3, imo. Lots of love out there, and he was great at his job.

Officially, not top 3 :-)

[Mike Sixel]

 

Officially, not top 3 :-)

 

I am surprised. Not that I would have put him there, but I expected the writers would. 

[jimmer]

It's kind of funny.

 

Last year, Bryant was the unanimous choice for NL ROY

This year, Seager was the unanimous choice for NL ROY

 

And they very well could (and absolutely should) end up 1-2 in NL MVP voting this year.

[jimmer]

So how much of an afterthought are teams like Cleveland on the national Level? Ron Darling just got done saying that even though he had heard of Naquin during theseason, he didn't even see Naquin play live until the postseason.

[jimmer]

 

Ortiz will be in the top 5, probably the top 3, imo. Lots of love out there, and he was great at his job.

Finished 6th.  And one guy actually had him 1st.  He should write in Minnesota and cover the Twins, where defense also doesn't matter.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/voted-david-ortiz-al-mvp-award-winner-mike-trout-article-1.2878145

 

 

One of his main reasons was Trout didn't play meaningful games past May 1st?  I guess he didn't play any contenders after that?  No effect at all on who made the playoffs?  If having the fortune of being drafted and/or playing on a team with enough talent around him to get to the playoffs is such a factor in MVP voting,why put Trout 2nd?  Why have him on your ballot at all?

 

He wants to talk about Ortiz offense.  And apparently got bonus points for being 40, as if age should be a factor.  Ortiz got the award the Hank Aaron award, which is about offense.  But he's also a DH. Offense is all he does. Additionally, Trout still lead in wRC+ by 8 points. A player at a premium position led the majors in wRC+.

 

 

Edited November 18, 2016 by jimmer

[USAFChief]

If Mike Trout never played another game, he'd have a case for the HOF.

 

He's led the league at least once in each of the following categories:  Runs, RBI, SB, BB, OBP, and SLG.  That's a pretty impressive mix of power, speed, and discipline.  His lowest OPS over his five full seasons is .939.

[jimmer]

Besides the rule that says a player has to play 10 seasons, yeah.

 

His level of awesome is off the charts, especially when one considers he does all this on a bad team while playing a premium position that he also plays well. No one had ever finished in top three in MVP voting in his first five seasons, and he has finished top 2 in his first 5.

 

We are watching true greatness with him. And Kershaw too.

Edited November 18, 2016 by jimmer