Time to switch up the batting order

[mazeville]

 

In general, I agree, I'd like Buxton at the top. But, man, I just wonder about his psyche.....and wonder if 9th is best right now. We are probably talking 10 ABs difference, aren't we?

 

It's time to quit babying him. Put him at the top spot in the order for a few games and see what you've got. 

[jimmer]

 

I would switch 8 and 9 around if it was me!

that's funny!

[mazeville]

Frankly, I want people like Plouffe and Mauer playing less and guys like Polanco, Vargas and Beresford playing more. This team is going to lose 100 games. 

 

Buxton CF

Polanco SS

Mauer 1B

Dozier 2B

Sano 3B

Vargas DH

Kepler RF

Rosario LF

Murphy C

[jimmer]

 

Switching Kepler and Mauer makes more sense to me. I want an RBI guy in the 5th spot.

So you want the player with a .294 BA and .838 OPS with RISP instead of the player with the .202 BA and .727 OPS with RISP as your RBI guy?

[Platoon]

Dozier feasts on the pitcher in that very first AB of the game. As the game progresses if the bottom of the order reaches base, Dozier is a power-hitting threat. Toronto puts Bautista in the #1 spot--and he is effective there! In short, NO! Leave Dozier at the #1 position!

This will likely go over like a lead dirigible, but I have a question, or two. They don't throw agressive 3-4 hitters first pitch FB cookies down the middle of the plate often. Dozier gets a remarkable amount of FB for a noted FB hitter. I have no idea how to look up the numbers on this, but for example the other night Dozier got FB and homered, and Sano got a full diet of breaking stuff from the same pitcher and struck out. I don't think anyone would accuse either of being fond of breaking stuff. I just think if you move Dozier into a power slot, he gets a different look. I know he hit there a few times earlier in the year, but I don't know what he did in those AB's,

[Doomtints]

 

It's time to quit babying him. Put him at the top spot in the order for a few games and see what you've got. 

 

He has already had 54 plate appearances in the leadoff position.  The results were tragic to say the least.

 

The kid needs to learn how to hit.  Forget about where in the batting order for now.  "Babying him" is precisely what the Twins need to be doing until he stops looking like a deer in the headlights.  

[bluechipper]

 

So you want player A with a .294 BA and .838 OPS with RISP instead of player B with the .202 BA and .727 OPS with RISP as your RBI guy?

That's debatable. No one thinks of Joe as a run producer, especially at this point in his career. Mauer's OBP ability is better higher in the order anyway.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

Next year, I'd like to see:

 

Buxton 8

Mauer 3

Kepler 9

Dozier 4 (can flip-flop 3-4-5 depending on LHP or RHP, type of pitcher, matchups, etc.)

Sano 5

Vargas/Park DH

Catcher 2

Polanco 6

Rosario 7

 

I would want Rosario/Polanco on base in front of Buxton, so that when Buxton gets his Buxton doubles or hits a triple, he isn't slowed by a catcher. 

 

This lineup is not drastically different from the 2016 100+ Loss team for the Twins to compete in 2017.  And if they are not going to compete in 2017, they do not need Dozier, they need what Dozier could bring (a young good arm and maybe more) more than they need Dozier.

[bluechipper]

 

This lineup is not drastically different from the 2016 100+ Loss team for the Twins to compete in 2017.  And if they are not going to compete in 2017, they do not need Dozier, they need what Dozier could bring (a young good arm and maybe more) more than they need Dozier.

The offense isn't the problem.

[mazeville]

 

He has already had 54 plate appearances in the leadoff position.  The results were tragic to say the least.

 

The kid needs to learn how to hit.  Forget about where in the batting order for now.  "Babying him" is precisely what the Twins need to be doing until he stops looking like a deer in the headlights.  

 

He hasn't had those plate appearances at the top of the order for some time. He needs more at-bats. The team has had him at the bottom of the order -- for good reason, as he hasn't earned top-of-the-order status -- all season.

 

I'd put him at the top to see how things go this time, assuming improvement. And then I'd leave him alone.

[jimmer]

 

That's debatable. No one thinks of Joe as a run producer, especially at this point in his career. Mauer's OBP ability is better higher in the order anyway.

Which guy seems like he'd be the better RBI guy, the first one or the second one?

 

As far as what people think of Mauer, they used to always complain he never got 100 RBI, even though, as a catcher, he wouldn't play a full schedule like other position players.  His career numbers with RISP is fantastic, but people would look at the RBI number by itelsef and say, never hits 100 RBI.  Well, yeah, let's not take into account the people in the 9, 1 and 2 spot have an average OBP around .275 and as a catcher, he's playing like 135 games or so.  Harder to get RBI that way.

[wsnydes]

 

He hasn't had those plate appearances at the top of the order for some time. He needs more at-bats. The team has had him at the bottom of the order -- for good reason, as he hasn't earned top-of-the-order status -- all season.

 

I'd put him at the top to see how things go this time, assuming improvement. And then I'd leave him alone.

What's the rush?  He's not going anywhere anytime soon.  He's not even established as a major league hitter yet, let alone a top of the order guy.  Let him sit in the 9 hole the rest of this year and play with his order spot next year.  It's not like they're going anywhere next year either.

[bluechipper]

 

Which guy seems like he'd be the better RBI guy, the first one or the second one.

Probably the guy with 12 more RBI in 174 less plate appearances.

[jimmer]

 

Probably the guy with 12 more RBI in 174 less plate appearances.

see, there you go...the RBI number by itself is definitely the best way to tell who his best with RISP. :-)

 

like fielding % and errors tells us who are the best fielders and how wins tells us who the best pitchers are...

[bluechipper]

 

see, there you go....

Mauer: .382 SLG with RISP this year, with a .345 BABIP

 

Kepler: .416 SLG, with RISP, with a .203 BABIP.

[jimmer]

 

Mauer: .382 SLG with RISP this year, with a .345 BABIP

 

Kepler: .416 SLG, with RISP, with a .203 BABIP.

That .203 BABIP with RISP makes sense with the very low BA with RISP.   I sometimes forget how slugging % is the most important stat. You think the 34 point bump in slg% negates the 120 point OPS difference and the 90 point BA difference?

 

Anyway, Mauer's OBP plays better in the 2 spot anyway,

[Thrylos]

 

The offense isn't the problem.

 

beg to differ:  

 

C, 1B, SS, LF, CF below league average for that position, in 1 (RF) was at league average for the position and only at 2B, 3B and DH was above league average for the position

 

even with the Met's pitching, you would not make the postseason, unless you improve.  Given, Polanco will be an improvement at SS in 2017, the rest?

 

[bluechipper]

 

beg to differ:  

 

C, 1B, SS, LF, CF below league average for that position, in 1 (RF) was at league average for the position and only at 2B, 3B and DH was above league average for the position

 

even with the Met's pitching, you would not make the postseason, unless you improve.  Given, Polanco will be an improvement at SS in 2017, the rest?

And yet they are still sitting 7th in the league in runs scored. I think they'd be a couple spots higher if they got to face their own pitching staff too.

 

If the Twins had the Mets pitching, they would make the playoffs. The Twins have scored 99 more runs than the Mets...and the Mets are probably going to make the playoffs with that bad offense anyway.

[jimmer]

Again, almost everyone who is providing this offense also plays the field.  Our position players rank 11th in the AL.

[bluechipper]

 

That .203 BABIP with RISP makes sense with the very low BA with RISP.   I sometimes forget how slugging % is the most important stat. You think the 34 point bump in slg% negates the 120 point OPS difference and the 90 point BA difference?

 

Anyway, Mauer's OBP plays better in the 2 spot anyway,

I was just going to post that walks aren't as important in the 5th spot in the lineup as they are in the 2nd spot, so I was wondering why you are arguing for this.

[wsnydes]

 

beg to differ:  

 

C, 1B, SS, LF, CF below league average for that position, in 1 (RF) was at league average for the position and only at 2B, 3B and DH was above league average for the position

 

even with the Met's pitching, you would not make the postseason, unless you improve.  Given, Polanco will be an improvement at SS in 2017, the rest?

Who cares?  Do they score runs as a team?  That's what matters.  They're 11th (per ESPN) in baseball in runs scored.  Can they improve?  Sure.  Pitching is at or near last in basically everything. 

 

Hitting profiles by position is an overrated metric that means nothing in the context of an entire team's lineup.

[wsnydes]

 

Again, almost everyone who is providing this offense also plays the field.  Our position players rank 11th in the AL.

Agreed.  Run prevention is the biggest issue with this team.  Scoring them isn't really the problem comparatively speaking.

[jimmer]

 

Agreed.  Run prevention is the biggest issue with this team.  Scoring them isn't really the problem comparatively speaking.

Right, but as we look at our team and say scoring runs isn't the problem we just have to remember that those are the same guys who are hurting our pitching staff by stinking out there in the field.

[jimbo92107]

Dozier feasts on the pitcher in that very first AB of the game. As the game progresses if the bottom of the order reaches base, Dozier is a power-hitting threat. Toronto puts Bautista in the #1 spot--and he is effective there! In short, NO! Leave Dozier at the #1 position!

Maximizing the danger for your opponent's pitcher should always be the goal of your batting order. Right now that clearly puts Dozier in the lead-off spot. Nobody else on the Twins approaches the danger factor of Dozier right now. 

 

Later, if Buxton's on-base percentage goes way up - more good bunts, better contact, fewer KO's, then you put Buxton 1 to get that wonderful multiplier from Dozier's bat, but you still want Dozier in the first three to get more AB's from him. 

 

Assuming Buxton continues to improve, next season I could see

 

Buxton

Mauer

Dozier... to max out the OBP's of the first two and get Dozier's bat to knock 'em around.

 

After that, a lot depends on how well Park heals up in Rochester. If completely healthy, I could see

 

Sano

Park

Kepler... Sano protects Dozier and belts in more RBI. Park protects Sano, and Kepler keeps the ball rolling to the gaps. If Kepler continues to up his own OBP, then you could swap Kepler and Mauer in the order because Kep has more bop in his bat. 

 

If Park doesn't heal up, then you simply put Kepler after Sano. 

[jimmer]

 

Who cares?  Do they score runs as a team?  That's what matters.  They're 11th (per ESPN) in baseball in runs scored.  Can they improve?  Sure.  Pitching is at or near last in basically everything. 

 

Hitting profiles by position is an overrated metric that means nothing in the context of an entire team's lineup.

I have a hard time looking at MLB rankings for pitching and offense since, when looking at pitching number we have to consider AL pitchers have to pitch to teams with a DH (instead of pitchers) and when looking at offense, we have to consider AL teams have the DH (as opposed to pitchers hitting).  11 out of 30 is a lot more impressive than 7th out of 15.

[Doomtints]

 

That .203 BABIP with RISP makes sense with the very low BA with RISP.   I sometimes forget how slugging % is the most important stat. You think the 34 point bump in slg% negates the 120 point OPS difference and the 90 point BA difference?

 

Anyway, Mauer's OBP plays better in the 2 spot anyway,

 

I would call that a sampling error.  Mauer's overall OPS and Kepler's overall OPS are the same.  Kepler has less than half a season under his belt.

[jimmer]

 

I would call that a sampling error.  Mauer's overall OPS and Kepler's overall OPS are the same.  Kepler has less than half a season under his belt.

 

 

Actually, Kepler has more than half a season under his belt, but I get what you're saying.  We were talking about RBI performance though so I look at numbers with RISP.

 

Also, I would say that Mauer's career slashline with RISP dwarfs almost everyone else in the game today. 

 

And Mauer's wRC+ is higher than Kepler's this year, though not by much.

 

I still prefer Mauer in the two hole though, cause no HRs...

[Platoon]

Runs scored isn't necessarily the answer. When were they scored? Winning 13-6 and 12-2. That's 15 useless runs. While I know some of it averages out, this team often seems to pile on runs on the good days. While this is an eyes only observation, I do know that you can't save runs for the next game. .

[Doomtints]

 

I would say that Mauer's career slashline with RISP dwarfs almost everyone else in the game today.

 

And  Mauer's wRC+ is higher than Kepler's this year, though not by much.

 

I still prefer Mauer in the two hole though, cause no HRs...

 

I don't disagree.  When correcting for the OPS error of over-counting hit events (both OBP and SLG count hits, which greatly helps singles hitters like Mauer when it comes to OPS), Mauer STILL shows as being more valuable.  

 

It's worth saying that Mauer just finished his best month since May of 2013.  He won't have many great months left, whereas Kepler is likely to have several.  Thus, the comparisons don't mean a lot.  Mauer is better today, Kepler will be better tomorrow.  This is how it should be.

[jimmer]

 

.  Mauer is better today, Kepler will be better tomorrow.  This is how it should be.

Well, we certainly HOPE that's the case, don't we.  I know I do.

 

BTW, it's pretty well known that OBP is undervalued in OPS.  That OBP should have more value than SLG%.  It's been argued by people who do advanced stats for quite some time. Good thing OPS is slowly being replaced. wRC+ I like way more.

 

'For a long time we had a hard time figuring out which of two hitters was better. Sure, we had OPS and OPS+, but we also knew they weren’t quite good enough. For example, two players could have the same OPS but have a different combinations of the beloved “three slash”: AVG/OBP/SLG. In that case, which hitter was better? There was a (correct) sense that OBP was generally more valuable, and measures like The Hardball Times‘ GPA ({[1.8 x OBP] + SLG}/4; invented by Aaron Gleeman) did a good job of getting at that, but it never really caught on for some reason.'

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/avgobpslg-in-an-age-of-woba/