19 home runs, 16 bases empty home runs

[Brock Beauchamp]

I've been following this stat for a couple of weeks now and it's kinda fascinating.

 

The Twins are fourth in the AL with a .315 on-base percentage.

 

The Twins are tenth in the AL with 19 home runs.

 

The Twins are third in the AL with 16 bases empty home runs.

 

Bizarre.

[Thrylos]

Not really.  Missing an important data point:

 

.209/.300/.294  Twins' slash line with men on.

 

Which means that the opposing pitchers do not give home run hitters fat pitches to hit when men on bases, and they are throwing junk instead and the Twins' hitters bite.

[ericchri]

The Twins seem to be masters of this.  I can't find a good way to look it up, but I know I posted something pretty much exactly like this a few years ago in the "Fun with Numbers" thread.  Don't recall what year, but one of the somewhat recent seasons the Twins started out leading the league in OBP for most of April and after a few weeks had managed something like 13 of 15 homeruns as solo shots.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not really.  Missing an important data point:

 

.209/.300/.294  Twins' slash line with men on.

 

Which means that the opposing pitchers do not give home run hitters fat pitches to hit when men on bases, and they are throwing junk instead and the Twins' hitters bite.

 

You know, sometimes we are just trying to have fun here.......

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not really.  Missing an important data point:

 

.209/.300/.294  Twins' slash line with men on.

 

Which means that the opposing pitchers do not give home run hitters fat pitches to hit when men on bases, and they are throwing junk instead and the Twins' hitters bite.

Well, yeah, the team's triple slash is terrible with men on base but that's almost surely unsustainable. I've never seen data points showing the ability of a team to be cluth/unclutch but I've seen many comparisons showing the exact opposite.

 

It's a weird situation with no real explanation.

 

The A's also have a similar split in 2016... 22 homers, 18 with the bases empty. But the A's are also a terrible on-base team, a distant last in the AL this season.

[70charger]

 

Not really.  Missing an important data point:

 

.209/.300/.294  Twins' slash line with men on.

 

Which means that the opposing pitchers do not give home run hitters fat pitches to hit when men on bases, and they are throwing junk instead and the Twins' hitters bite.

 

 

OP: "Look how bad the Twins are at hitting with men on base."

 

You: "Ha ha, that's not it at all. What's actually happening is that the Twins are bad at hitting with men on base."

 

Did you read the original post before disagreeing?

[Platoon]

Third in the AL with 16 solos? That is over 84%. Is the percentage 3rd, the number, or both. No matter, it's a bizarre number.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Third in the AL with 16 solos? That is over 84%. Is the percentage 3rd, the number, or both. No matter, it's a bizarre number.

The number is third. I only glanced over the other teams' stats but I'm pretty sure the percentage is first.

[Platoon]

I don't think there are "clutch hitters. Meaning that players don't boost there level of ability in important at bats. I do think there are players who stay more relaxed, and don't over swing, or try and hit the proverbial 5 run homer. While their success rate is not likely higher than normal, it may be higher than their more nervous brethren.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think there are "clutch hitters. Meaning that players don't boost there level of ability in important at bats. I do think there are players who stay more relaxed, and don't over swing, or try and hit the proverbial 5 run homer. While their success rate is not likely higher than normal, it may be higher than their more nervous brethren.

This is pretty much my take on the situation as well. There are guys who underperform with men on base - Arcia might be a good example, as he routinely swings out of his shoes in some PAs - but there are few, if any, players who overperform in those situations.

 

Though there are a few guys like Molitor, who had around a .050 higher OPS with RISP... But he's a statistical anomaly, especially for a guy with his number of career PAs.

 

Anyway, there is little indication individual players can be clutch... But, as far as I know, there is absolutely no indication an entire team can sustain cluth/unclutch performance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And we've seen this anomaly's sustainability in action.

 

About two weeks ago, the Twins' OPS had over a 500 point difference between bases empty and men on base (something like .850 to .350, it was absurd).

 

Today, that gulf has narrowed to 180 points (roughly .780 to .590) because those two numbers inevitably mirror one another when given enough data points.

 

I expect the two numbers to be virtually identical a month from now.

[goulik]

Are these not stats you would expect from a bunch of young guys? Pressing with runners in scoring position? Without even looking, I bet that's when the K % rises as well...

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is amazing. 24 home runs, 21 bases empty home runs.

 

Meanwhile, the Twins are still eighth in the AL with a .311 OBP.

[beckmt]

This is the old theory.  Bert Blylevan, Jack Morris, Fergie Jenkins all gave a lot of home runs,  most them them in their prime solo shots.  They got beat with men on base,  and when ahead by several runs, made sure they did not walk anyone, so some players got a good pitch and drove it out. 

Data would be more telling if run differential when home runs where hit was included.

[gocgo]

Didn't Plouffe go threw a stretch a couple of years ago when he was banging out nothing but solo shots?  Just think what could happen with him back in the lineup!  What the heck?  Chicks dig the long ball even if it is a solo shot. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This is the old theory.  Bert Blylevan, Jack Morris, Fergie Jenkins all gave a lot of home runs,  most them them in their prime solo shots.  They got beat with men on base,  and when ahead by several runs, made sure they did not walk anyone, so some players got a good pitch and drove it out. 

Data would be more telling if run differential when home runs where hit was included.

That theory was annihilated several years ago by an in-depth article. The piece put that concept to bed forever, at least in the case of Jack Morris (the poster boy for those who advocate this flawed idea).

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1815

[beckmt]

 

That theory was annihilated several years ago by an in-depth article. The piece put that concept to bed forever, at least in the case of Jack Morris (the poster boy for those who advocate this flawed idea).

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1815

Actually Brock, the poster boy was Fergie Jenkins.  Would like to see the stats on him to refute this.  He pitched in Wrigley,  so stats should be telling.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Actually Brock, the poster boy was Fergie Jenkins.  Would like to see the stats on him to refute this.  He pitched in Wrigley,  so stats should be telling.

Obviously, there isn't a several thousand word breakdown of Jenkins' career but his clutch and leverage stats don't indicate he was significantly better in those situations than in blowout situations.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=jenkife01&year=Career&t=p#clutc

[beckmt]

 

Obviously, there isn't a several thousand word breakdown of Jenkins' career but his clutch and leverage stats don't indicate he was significantly better in those situations than in blowout situations.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=jenkife01&year=Career&t=p#clutc

I just remember it being quoted during his career at Wigley.  Stats change over time and I do not remember how much was tainted by his pitching toward the end of his career.  At that time you could get night Cubs games up here on WGN(it was clear channel, same as St. Louis).  St. Louis was more interesting with Harry Carey and Jack Buck.