Buxton and the count

[longstrangetrip]

Those of us who played a lot of ball know the advantage of getting ahead in the count, but I don't know that I have ever seen a young player that looks as different as Buxton does depending on whether he is ahead or behind in the count.  When he is ahead in the count, he looks like the #1 prospect that we have eagerly been awaiting the past few years.  But when he is 0-2, he looks like he doesn't belong in the majors.  Actually, anytime he has 2 strikes on him (other than 3-2 counts), he seems to tense up and his entire batting style changes for the worse.

 

I decided to go beyond the eye test and see what his results are depending on the count.  This year is a very small sample size, but I wasn't surprised to see that his only 2 hits came when the count was 2-1 and 3-2.  Conversely, he has had a 2 strike count on him 10 total times, and he has struck out 9 of those and carries a .100 batting average.  That's rather astounding.  2015 is a larger sample size, and the results support his struggles when he is behind.  Despite a paltry .209 batting average, he was able to hit .375 when he worked the count to favorable counts (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, and 3-1).  And he was a terrible 2-strike hitter last year too...he struck out 44 of the 73 times he got to 2 strikes, and hit only .123 anytime he had two strikes on him (including full counts).

 

While almost every hitter hits better ahead in the count, I would argue that Buxton's stats are much more extreme than the norm.  I actually look at this as a positive thing.  Very few players in their young 20s show the kind of plate discipline that Miguel Sano has shown, and Buxton has proven to be an extreme case...but most talented hitters learn how to work the count.  It's not going to happen overnight, but Byron is going to learn to get ahead in the count too...and that is going to make him a very good hitter.

 

And when he does, he will become an ideal leadoff hitter.  In another thread there was discussion about where Dozier belongs in the lineup, and #5 or 6 was suggested.  I actually see him even lower than 6, but until Buxton earns the leadoff spot, Brain needs to stay where he is leading off.  But once Byron learns to work the count, the Twins will be able to roll out this potentially potent lineup:

 

Buxton

Mauer

Sano

Plouffe

Rosario

Park

Dozier

Santana/Murphy

Escobar

 

[Thrylos]

Agreed on all of that, but the problem is that Buxton has a grand total of 1 PA with 2 more balls than strikes (2-0 or 3-1) and he stuck out on that PA, so he really has not gotten that much ahead on the count this season. 

Career he has 27 2-0 or 3-1 PAs and he has 5 hits (.185 BA), 2 BB, and 7 K.  Not. Good. Enough.

[alskntwnsfn]

He has to start jumping on those early fastballs. Be ready to hit young man! My concern is that this bad approach has lasted a few games. That's too long. The coaching staff had to help him adjust faster.

 

It's not rocket science. Look fastball, if you see a dot, let it go. If it's a strike, oh well.

 

Nice post by the OP. Those are staggering differences, and underscores what a difference approach makes.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Seems like we're trying to find an excuse for his struggles. bottom line, right now, he's a AAA hitter battling in the Majors. I really don't see how batting him 9th an giving him 3 ABs, 4 tops per game will help him at all.

 

If he's the future, there's no need to rush him. Especially this season which seems lost already.

[twinsnorth49]

 

Seems like we're trying to find an excuse for his struggles. bottom line, right now, he's a AAA hitter battling in the Majors. I really don't see how batting him 9th an giving him 3 ABs, 4 tops per game will help him at all.

 

If he's the future, there's no need to rush him. Especially this season which seems lost already.

http://i.imgur.com/45tpYWM.gif

 

Dude, seriously , it's not going well  but it's 5 games and they haven't even played their home opener yet.

[Ncgo4]

Through 5 games Buxton, Sano and Rosario each have 15 ABs. They have 10, 8 & 7 strike outs. That's 25 of 45 or about 56%. It's only 5 games into the season, no reason to panic. Slugging %'s. .267, .133 & .333. Wish I could add something humorous or prophetic but it just is what it is.

[Twins7]

 

While almost every hitter hits better ahead in the count, I would argue that Buxton's stats are much more extreme than the norm.  

 

What is the norm?

[longstrangetrip]

 

What is the norm?

2009 is the most recent data I could find.  While Buxton's .375 average in favorable accounts is only 20-25 percentage points higher than the league norm, his average in any 2 strike count looks to be closer to 60 points below the league average.  That's a huge number, and supports the impression I had from just watching him.  Just about more than any player I can think of, it's vitally important for Byron to get ahead I the count. 

 

http://www.theoleballgame.com/batting-average-analysis.html

 

By the way, the .338 average swinging at the first pitch was surprising to me.  I wonder if Joe Mauer knows that, or more importantly, I wonder if he knows he hit .438 the 73 times he swung at the first pitch the past three seasons.  I suspect he doesn't.  And if Bruno isn't reminding him of these stats everyday, he's not doing his job.

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Just once it would be cool if a top prospect was good right away, and stayed good. Maybe that is Sano, but it sure isn't Buxton.

[Trov]

To me when I watch Buxton he does not seem to have a plan, other than see ball hit ball.  He also has such a long swing when there are 2 strikes he does not just try to put the ball in play, like he should with his speed.  That goes with his lack of a plan.  He needs to look for his pitch early in the count and do some damage, but if he misses when there are 2 strikes just try to make some kind of contact. 

[longstrangetrip]

It's getting increasingly painful to watch.  I just turned the game on and BB was in a 1-2 hole again (I don't know how he got there).  And then the inevitable strikeout.  I'd like to think Byron is here to stay because his speed and defense can be game changers.  But if Kepler hits and Byron continues to struggle, I would advocate a stint in AAA to work on getting ahead in the count.  I recognize this is a bit knee-jerk, but we also have 2015 to look at...and 2016 doesn't seem any different so far.