Baseball America updated prospect ranking

[FrodaddyG]

You know, we're seeing the same convenient memories here from the same Twins bashers. DJP, the way-overused pitch to contact mantra and the same old soft tosser crap gets thrown out like the garbage it is. You appear to recall almost nothing from the scouting reports on Wimmers at the time he was drafted. What did his FB top out at during his collegiate career, DJP?

Wimmers sat around 90, touching 92 on occasion.

 

The main selling point on him (especially during the BYTO discussions) was that he could be "like Mike Leake" and move quickly. Leake is pretty much the definition of a league average pitcher. While someone like that has value, much of the "low upside, but fast to the bigs" selling point is lost when, three years later, the guy has barely seen AA and is now shut down again with a mystery injury.

[bird]

Well, DPJ, perhaps you disagreed with the scouts back then. Perhaps you'll be right. Wimmer's ceiling was generally described as 2-3 starter, and his FB was 91-93, and more that one scout described it as plenty good enough to miss bats. I cannot recall a single scouting report describing his ceiling as "back of the rotation". If it was, he would've been regarded as a second rounder, like Baker was. So, either that's your opinion, or you should back it up if it's a credible professinal opinion.

 

 

Which is it?

[gunnarthor]

In fairness to Wimmers, some people did like him. Sickels at minorleagueball gave him a B+ rating in his first ranking, making him #2 Twins prospect and baseball america put him in their honorable mention his first eligible year.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/10/16/1755909/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2011

[DPJ]

Well, DPJ, perhaps you disagreed with the scouts back then. Perhaps you'll be right. Wimmer's ceiling was generally described as 2-3 starter, and his FB was 91-93, and more that one scout described it as plenty good enough to miss bats. I cannot recall a single scouting report describing his ceiling as "back of the rotation". If it was, he would've been regarded as a second rounder, like Baker was. So, either that's your opinion, or you should back it up if it's a credible professinal opinion.

 

 

Which is it?

So I'm suppose to show a scouting report that shows Wimmers had a backend ceiling while you provide no link that says otherwise. It pretty much birdwatcher says he's a 2 or 3 even though multiply here have said the same thing of Wimmers.

 

Is this Lev?

[DaveW]

But, to be fair, the stuff they were doing a couple years ago left them in the predicament they're in now.

Yeah, they def could use some better (young arms) however its kinda hard to blame them for Morneau's dizzyness and the other injuries the Twins have dealt with (Mauer, Gibson, Wimmers etc) its also extremely frustrating that guys like Guerra and Salcedo never panned out.

 

Smith was the one who put them in the current situation IMO by the Capps trade and a few other things.

[DPJ]

Yeah, they def could use some better (young arms) however its kinda hard to blame them for Morneau's dizzyness and the other injuries the Twins have dealt with (Mauer, Gibson, Wimmers etc) its also extremely frustrating that guys like Guerra and Salcedo never panned out.

 

Smith was the one who put them in the current situation IMO by the Capps trade and a few other things.

Please explain how Smith is to blame for this?

[Mike Sixel]

No, Ryan was the GM when the drafts were done 4+ years ago, which is the track for college players, right? this is on both Ryan and Smith's time as GM, it's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too easy to blame this on Smith.

[Mike Sixel]

I won't copy the whole thing, but here are two sentences from the ESPN analysis of the Wimmers' pick.....

 

“There's some question whether he'll hold up as a starter, but I think average fastball/two plus pitches/control is a starter, until his performance proves otherwise. Wimmers is the closest thing to a Mike Leake this draft class has, although he's not the athlete that Leake is and hasn't pitched in a major baseball conference as Leake did.”

 

Law did say he thought he was the closest to the majors of any pitcher in that draft (well, him or Chris Sale).

 

Look, I get the pick, I just don’t see him as anywhere likely a #2. Name the number two pitchers (like, the 30-50^th best pitchers in the league, maybe 20-35). Do we think it is LIKELY that Wimmers is (was) that? 20% likely? I just don’t think most pitchers reach that, especially not pitchers with an average or below average FB. His likely upside is a 3, with a more likely outcome a 4/5 if he's a starter someday. That’s mostly because that is the likely outcome for most pitching prospects that end up starters, not because he is a bad pitcher. Heck, most become relievers if they even make the majors.

 

I did not kill the pick at the time, but I also didn’t expect him to be a 2. I expected him to be up this year, as a 4/5, with him becoming a 3/4 over a year or two.

[bird]

Again, DPJ, name us two pitchers in the Wimmers draft that hit 97 MPH with their fastball.

 

Just two.

 

Now, were they available to the Twins in the Wimmers draft? No? OK, then name me three pitchers who WERE available when the Twins drafted whose fastball sat at 95 MPH.

 

It's just not that easy.

[DPJ]

Again, DPJ, name us two pitchers in the Wimmers draft that hit 97 MPH with their fastball.

 

Just two.

 

Now, were they available to the Twins in the Wimmers draft? No? OK, then name me three pitchers who WERE available when the Twins drafted whose fastball sat at 95 MPH.

 

It's just not that easy.

What the hell are you talking about?

 

This isn't about 97 mph, it's about taking a low-ceiling pitcher that early in the draft. He was never a #2 or 3, he was a backend guy that would move quickly through the minors. That was it, the injuries and yips sucks but never the less it's part of grading a pick and so far the Wimmers pick has been a massive failure.

 

FYI I was a big Tyrell Jenkins fan coming into the draft but what good does it do to rehash.

[twinswon1991]

I won't copy the whole thing, but here are two sentences from the ESPN analysis of the Wimmers' pick.....

 

“There's some question whether he'll hold up as a starter, but I think average fastball/two plus pitches/control is a starter, until his performance proves otherwise. Wimmers is the closest thing to a Mike Leake this draft class has, although he's not the athlete that Leake is and hasn't pitched in a major baseball conference as Leake did.”

 

Law did say he thought he was the closest to the majors of any pitcher in that draft (well, him or Chris Sale).

 

Look, I get the pick, I just don’t see him as anywhere likely a #2. Name the number two pitchers (like, the 30-50^th best pitchers in the league, maybe 20-35). Do we think it is LIKELY that Wimmers is (was) that? 20% likely? I just don’t think most pitchers reach that, especially not pitchers with an average or below average FB. His likely upside is a 3, with a more likely outcome a 4/5 if he's a starter someday. That’s mostly because that is the likely outcome for most pitching prospects that end up starters, not because he is a bad pitcher. Heck, most become relievers if they even make the majors.

 

I did not kill the pick at the time, but I also didn’t expect him to be a 2. I expected him to be up this year, as a 4/5, with him becoming a 3/4 over a year or two.

Great post. A few people posting above don't realize how good a #2 or #3 starter is. No way Wimmers had that sort of upside. A #2 starter is a Matt Cain type and a #3 is a Gio Gonzalez or Jon Lester type. The Twins had an ace in Santana but other than that they have had no #2 recently and maybe 1 season each from Baker and Frankie as #3's.

[drjim]

Great post. A few people posting above don't realize how good a #2 or #3 starter is. No way Wimmers had that sort of upside. A #2 starter is a Matt Cain type and a #3 is a Gio Gonzalez or Jon Lester type. The Twins had an ace in Santana but other than that they have had no #2 recently and maybe 1 season each from Baker and Frankie as #3's.

Wow, Cain is a #2? High standards.

[bird]

DPJ, YOU'RE the one who said Wimmers was destined to be a back-end guy unless he gained 5-6 MPH on his fastball. MOST, not some, but MOST analysts described his ceiling as higher. Two of those analysts have been mentioned in this thread. No analysts have been mentioned that supported your opinion that he was so obviously no better than a back-end guy. So, it's OK for you to have that opinion, but that doesn't support a conclusion that it was a bad pick. I was challenging you to come up with some alternative names- pitchers that throw "hard enough" to meet your standards that were available to the Twins. That's all.

 

Now , in retrospect? Sure. I agree with Mike Wants Wins. Wimmers is very unlikely to become a #2, and it's a reach to project him as a #3. But that's looking retrospectively.

[twinswon1991]

Wow, Cain is a #2? High standards.

 

Most experts and scouts say there are 10-15 #1's in all of baseball.

 

Turn down the volume when you watch Dick and Bert because they'll try to convince you Pavano is an ace because he gets the ball on opening day and Hamels is a #3 cuz he starts game 3 of the season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wow, Cain is a #2? High standards.

More like ridiculous standards. Cain is a 27 year old pitcher with a 125 ERA+. He has had two outstanding seasons and a few very good seasons.

 

Hes a #1.

[DPJ]

DPJ, YOU'RE the one who said Wimmers was destined to be a back-end guy unless he gained 5-6 MPH on his fastball. MOST, not some, but MOST analysts described his ceiling as higher. Two of those analysts have been mentioned in this thread. No analysts have been mentioned that supported your opinion that he was so obviously no better than a back-end guy. So, it's OK for you to have that opinion, but that doesn't support a conclusion that it was a bad pick. I was challenging you to come up with some alternative names- pitchers that throw "hard enough" to meet your standards that were available to the Twins. That's all.

 

He's a backend guy, if you really want to nit pick between a 4-5 pitcher go right ahead. He wasn't a one, he was't a two and chances are he wasn't a 3. He was a guy that would get to the majors quickly and contribute. He never was gonna be a great pitcher, but a solid cost controlled arm that wouldn't kill everytime ala pre-Target Field Blackburn.

[twinswon1991]

More like ridiculous standards. Cain is a 27 year old pitcher with a 125 ERA+. He has had two outstanding seasons and a few very good seasons.

 

Hes a #1.

He is a good pitcher having a great year. If he were doing this for the Twins Dick n Bert would have him enshrined in the Twins HOF with Diamond after this year.

 

He is a strong #2 with the Hamels, Gallardo, Beckett, Haren, Wilson, and Bumgardners of the world.

[Pius Jefferson]

Most experts and scouts say there are 10-15 #1's in all of baseball.

 

Turn down the volume when you watch Dick and Bert because they'll try to convince you Pavano is an ace because he gets the ball on opening day and Hamels is a #3 cuz he starts game 3 of the season.

 

Do you have a list of these 10-15 #1 starters in baseball that don't include Matt Cain?

[drjim]

He is a good pitcher having a great year. If he were doing this for the Twins Dick n Bert would have him enshrined in the Twins HOF eith Diamond after this year.

 

He is a strong #2 with the Hamels, Gallardo, Beckett, Haren, Wilson, and Bumgardners of the world.

I don't see what this has to do with Dick and Bert. Dude has gone 217, 217, 223, 221 IP the past 4 years with good eras, solid k rate and numbers that are getting better this year as he is entering his prime. He is a top 5 pitcher in baseball, the favorite to win the NL Cy Young. How is that not an ace?

 

I generally agree on the others, mostly because the rest of them have had injury concerns and Bumgarner is still a little young.

[twinswon1991]

Do you have a list of these 10-15 #1 starters in baseball that don't include Matt Cain?

Here are guys off the top of my head (I'm sure I'll forget someone obvious) who I would rather have than Cain starting the Twins 1 game WC playoff game in 2012: Kershaw, Lee, Halladay, Price, CC, Felix, Verlander, Strausburg, Grienke, Weaver. If I had more time to look at the stats I probably could come up with several more but then comes the next group of 10-30 pitchers that would definitely include Cain. If I had one of the Aces start the Twins WC game I would love to have Cain start game 1 of the ALCS.

 

I would also vote Cain #2 for the CY this year behind RA and he may end up #1 in the end. I don't feel that the last 3 months has made him go from a strong #2 to an ace. I might chance my mind if he keeps this up the rest of the way. It is crazy how he has been able to outperform his peripherals year in and year out but the NL West lineups and the ballpark are HUGE bonuses for him.

[Thrylos]

Wimmers in 2010 was not a well-kept secret. At the time, we believed he'd join the staff with Gibson... he was just like the good Kevin Slowey. .

Not. Even. Close. The "good Kevin Slowey" was average Greg Maddux-like. One of the biggest wastes (for misdiagnosed and mistreated injury reasons, which created a lot of friction with GardyNAndy) in the recent Twins' history

[edavis0308]

DPJ, YOU'RE the one who said Wimmers was destined to be a back-end guy unless he gained 5-6 MPH on his fastball. MOST, not some, but MOST analysts described his ceiling as higher. Two of those analysts have been mentioned in this thread. No analysts have been mentioned that supported your opinion that he was so obviously no better than a back-end guy. So, it's OK for you to have that opinion, but that doesn't support a conclusion that it was a bad pick. I was challenging you to come up with some alternative names- pitchers that throw "hard enough" to meet your standards that were available to the Twins. That's all.

 

Now , in retrospect? Sure. I agree with Mike Wants Wins. Wimmers is very unlikely to become a #2, and it's a reach to project him as a #3. But that's looking retrospectively.

Sweet Jesus can some of you learn how to use Reply with Quote?

[twinswon1991]

Not. Even. Close. The "good Kevin Slowey" was average Greg Maddux-like. One of the biggest wastes (for misdiagnosed and mistreated injury reasons, which created a lot of friction with GardyNAndy) in the recent Twins' history

Gardy/Andy and the medical staff also killed Baker's chances of being a really good MLB pitcher. I would've loved to see what they could've done in another organization.

[DaveW]

Gardy/Andy and the medical staff also killed Baker's chances of being a really good MLB pitcher. I would've loved to see what they could've done in another organization.

This might take the cake for worst post of the year.

[DaveW]

Not. Even. Close. The "good Kevin Slowey" was average Greg Maddux-like. One of the biggest wastes (for misdiagnosed and mistreated injury reasons, which created a lot of friction with GardyNAndy) in the recent Twins' history

Kevin Slowey = Greg Maddux.

 

Got it. I forgot the time Maddux was 28 years old, traded/released by 2 different teams and posting a 5.14 in AAA.

[DaveW]

More like ridiculous standards. Cain is a 27 year old pitcher with a 125 ERA+. He has had two outstanding seasons and a few very good seasons.

 

Hes a #1.

Past 4 years, 131 ERA+ Averaging 230 IP a year, 1.090 WHIP. That is definitely a #1.

 

Also it is possible for a team to posses two number 1s, the Giants are a good example if Lincecum starts coming back to form.

 

Trying to put a cap on "There can only be 15 #1's in baseball" seems futile.

[twinswon1991]

This might take the cake for worst post of the year.

 

 

I am waiting for your rebuttal when you defend Gardy/Andy's track record in helping pitchers improve and your defense of the Twins medical staff. This should be good!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Trying to put a cap on "There can only be 15 #1's in baseball" seems futile.

Particularly when we're in the middle of a pitching revival in baseball. The "old rules" no longer apply, especially bad ones.

[DaveW]

I am waiting for your rebuttal when you defend Gardy/Andy's track record in helping pitchers improve and your defense of the Twins medical staff. This should be good!

How about you point out all the pitchers who vastly improved when they left the Twins?

 

Pitchers get hurt, we have had a bad run of it over the past few years, they should examine the training staff and possibly make some changes, but it should be noted that the Royals have had 6 players end up getting Tommy John surgery this year, pitchers getting hurt is hardly a phenomenon that only effects the Twins.

[fetch]

2010 Liriano was a #3? that's even higher standards than Matt Cain as a 2