The stock market

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Today ended well. Hope y’all stuck it out, and even bought low!

Friday was not the bottom, and it will be a slow recovery in China as inbound container ships at the port of LA are down 25% through April.

 

2020 is going to be a rough year, but I’m still riding it out. For most of my assets it’s not a loss until I sell.

[gunnarthor]

 

let’s see if the fiscal stimulus comes in. I can’t imagine congress actually accomplishing anything in an election year. Friday was not the bottom, and it will be a slow recovery in China as inbound container ships at the port of LA are down 25% through April.

2020 is going to be a rough year, but I’m still riding it out. For most of my assets it’s not a loss until I sell.

This is how I feel after talking with some folks who do this a lot more than I do. Someone said he expected a 10% drop and that was BEFORE the virus. It was only a matter of time. My wife will probably make a purchase into her IRA (probably Disney) but the rest of our cash is probably going to the sideline for a year or so.

[Mike Sixel]

Was a good day to own too much UHN.....I don't like what I expect the next few months to be, and we just decided to fix our sewer and get AC..... So now when to sell a bit?

[gunnarthor]

 

Was a good day to own too much UHN.....I don't like what I expect the next few months to be, and we just decided to fix our sewer and get AC..... So now when to sell a bit?

I assume you meant UNH? 

 

I probably won't sell any of my holdings but we're still in it for the long haul - I'm not expecting an early retirement. But I think the next few years will be iffy so it might be good to sell now and pocket your earnings.*

 

* I'm not a financial adviser and know nothing.

[Mike Sixel]

Yes, UNH.....I did give my sons each thirty shares I paid almost nothing for....

[Mike Sixel]

the market isn't exactly booming after the rate cut........

[gunnarthor]

 

the market isn't exactly booming after the rate cut........

Down 700. 

 

I dunno. Hold and wait it out. But I also had that opinion in 08 when Wachovia was still in existence. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Down 700. 

 

I dunno. Hold and wait it out. But I also had that opinion in 08 when Wachovia was still in existence. 

I'm no longer in the market but I'd also hold and wait it out.

 

But the market is primed for a downturn, I just called it wrong by about 18 months. Is this what causes it? Dunno, hard to say.

[Mike Sixel]

Nice morning if you own healthcare. So predictable. Angry I didn't place that bet yesterday.... Well, not angry, but I should have

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'm no longer in the market but I'd also hold and wait it out.

 

But the market is primed for a downturn, I just called it wrong by about 18 months. Is this what causes it? Dunno, hard to say.

stock market downturn or economic downturn?

The stock market is not the economy, and for a lot of people, you may not have missed the economic downturn.

 

about 8 weeks ago Kai Ryssdal of Marketplace was asking the big economic minds if the Coronavirus could be the global boom economy’s Black Swan.

 

They couldn’t answer him then, and still couldn’t answer him last week.

 

I’m of the opinion that out metrics of what a “good economy” is, may be out of date. Inflation for instance, largely ignores healthcare spending and groceries, which are the two largest areas of consumer spend in the US.

 

All this to say, i don’t think there is a clear answer at this point. We don’t know how or agree on how to measure...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

stock market downturn or economic downturn?
The stock market is not the economy, and for a lot of people, you may not have missed the economic downturn.

about 8 weeks ago Kai Ryssdal of Marketplace was asking the big economic minds if the Coronavirus could be the global boom economy’s Black Swan.

They couldn’t answer him then, and still couldn’t answer him last week.

I’m of the opinion that out metrics of what a “good economy” is, may be out of date. Inflation for instance, largely ignores healthcare spending and groceries, which are the two largest areas of consumer spend in the US.

All this to say, i don’t think there is a clear answer at this point. We don’t know how or agree on how to measure...

An economic downturn, which will lead to a stock market downturn.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

An economic downturn, which will lead to a stock market downturn.

to whit, you could have been right about the economic downturn but wrong about which markets the economic downturn impacted.

[Mike Sixel]

You're welcome. I just sold ALL MY SHARES in one of my retirement accounts. Ok, not all. I still have zoom, which I bought more of yesterday. Sigh on that......I'm predicting a big bump later today now that I did this. 

[gunnarthor]

 

You're welcome. I just sold ALL MY SHARES in one of my retirement accounts. Ok, not all. I still have zoom, which I bought more of yesterday. Sigh on that......I'm predicting a big bump later today now that I did this. 

I know there are deals to be had but I think we just have to wait a bit before we're going to add more. We've lost a TON in these two weeks. I want to see where things settle before jumping back in, which might be a bit. I think certain sectors that are being crushed - banking and energy - will have some huge value buys in the long run. Tech (broadly) seems to be holding up relatively well - ROKU might be a bargain, I like that stock a lot (which probably means it falls to 90 soon) - but stocks like Apple and Square seem to be doing (more or less) ok. Outside of Pfizer, I don't have anything that could even broadly be considered "healthcare" but UNH and ABBV look promising and we've thought about both.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

That sounds like a good one to look at. I want to try to figure out how much of their revenue comes from the mask business.

This article puts a pretty good estimate on your revenue question of the masks to 3M.

 

https://investorplace.com/2020/03/buy-mmm-stock-not-coronavirus/

[glunn]

 

This article puts a pretty good estimate on your revenue question of the masks to 3M.

https://investorplace.com/2020/03/buy-mmm-stock-not-coronavirus/

Thank you. I sold a put on this last week at $130.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Thank you. I sold a put on this last week at $130.

With the volatility of the market, that’s a nice value. A cruddy week for the Dow based on all this Coronavirus fear could drop it in your option range.

[glunn]

Based on my lack of confidence in the powers that be, I am looking at companies that operate funeral homes and cemeteries.  https://frugalfortunes.com/funeral-home-stocks-death-care-trends/

[gunnarthor]

Virus and now an oil war - tomorrow is going to be another really bad day.

[glunn]

Stocks that I am buying tomorrow:

 

CSV

SCI

STON

[gunnarthor]

So today was even worse than I expected. Sold a few things at a loss although we'll get some tax incentives for that, I believe, over the next few years.

 

Russia and Saudi Arabia's oil war is really bad for my portfolio.

[glunn]

 

So today was even worse than I expected. Sold a few things at a loss although we'll get some tax incentives for that, I believe, over the next few years.

Russia and Saudi Arabia's oil war is really bad for my portfolio.

I am taking a very close look at NS. I think that it's been oversold, but there is risk of its customers defaulting.

[Mike Sixel]

It will be interesting to see the form of the relief......and if it matters. Because I'm guessing today was all about the relief.....didn't get my 5% gain on my tech stocks, which still would have left me 15-20% down, so still happy I panic sold from that one portfolio.

[glunn]

 

It will be interesting to see the form of the relief......and if it matters. Because I'm guessing today was all about the relief.....didn't get my 5% gain on my tech stocks, which still would have left me 15-20% down, so still happy I panic sold from that one portfolio.

I continue to build positions in funeral homes and cemeteries. It's a low volatility sector that could get a huge bump fairly soon, and I think that other investors may be beginning to pile on. Two of my three positions were up today. Not sexy like tech, but more grounded.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I continue to build positions in funeral homes and cemeteries. It's a low volatility sector that could get a huge bump fairly soon, and I think that other investors may be beginning to pile on. Two of my three positions were up today. Not sexy like tech, but more grounded.

 

more grounded  

[glunn]

I am seeing a lot of "bargains" today. Taking a significant position in XLU -- utilities ETF with yield around 3%. Also adding to "death" portfolio and selling QQQ puts at $175.

 

Is anyone else buying, and if so, what are you buying?

 

I

[Mike Sixel]

I might flip in and out of zoom as it yo yos. I'm not buying anything as an investment right now, just "day trading".....as it were.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I am seeing a lot of "bargains" today. Taking a significant position in XLU -- utilities ETF with yield around 3%. Also adding to "death" portfolio and selling QQQ puts at $175.

 

Is anyone else buying, and if so, what are you buying?

 

I

I’m waiting for my employee stock options to recalibrate at month end and then start exercising.

 

I need to hold on to my cash for a while...

[gunnarthor]

I don't know where this market will end up. We have maybe 50k in cash right now but we're just holding until things get settled. I actually wish I had sold like Mike but at this point, I'm committed to riding it out on the holdings I have. But I'm not adding right now. The virus is not going away and it's huge disruption on daily life. What happens to the market if we're pulling the national guard out to quarantine Chicago, Minneapolis or St. Louis? The NYTimes report about Seattle was really bad. Major sporting events are going to be cancelled or played without fans. Local economies are going to be disrupted significantly.

 

I'm sure there will be some yo-yoing but I'm not a smart enough trader to get on those. Yesterday I was feeling good about Disney - today it dropped 5%. I don't know were the bottom is but I don't think we've gotten there. We've just entered a bear market but we could easily lose another 20% or more. 

[gunnarthor]

Mother*******

 

Trading halted right after the bell. Stocks plummet 7% right away.