The stock market

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I went heavy and hard into MSTR in Oct of 2022.  So far that is playing out fairly well.  Planning to sell in March of 2024.   Going to put 30% in spider.   

Also planning to put a decent chunk into a small bank that gives a 5% dividend and is well undervalued compared to its book value.  If ever sold have an opportunity at a 300% return.  A good forever hold that pays me to hold while seeing if the stock ever appreciates on its own or is in a sell out and gives a massive return.   BKUTK.  Very low float though.  Not a traders stock.  

[gunnarthor]

On 2/19/2024 at 10:46 AM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I went heavy and hard into MSTR in Oct of 2022.  So far that is playing out fairly well.  Planning to sell in March of 2024.   Going to put 30% in spider.   

Also planning to put a decent chunk into a small bank that gives a 5% dividend and is well undervalued compared to its book value.  If ever sold have an opportunity at a 300% return.  A good forever hold that pays me to hold while seeing if the stock ever appreciates on its own or is in a sell out and gives a massive return.   BKUTK.  Very low float though.  Not a traders stock.  

I know some folks who made really good money on regional banks in the 90s and early 2000s. Huge profits. I'm a bit too old so I'm not investing in really risky stuff - except for what I already have, of course - so I've been buying some healthcare/pharmaceutical stocks (AZN and AMGN).

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I know some folks who made really good money on regional banks in the 90s and early 2000s. Huge profits. I'm a bit too old so I'm not!  investing in really risky stuff - except for what I already have, of course - so I've been buying some healthcare/pharmaceutical stocks (AZN and AMGN).

Never too old! I bought more Nvidia after this mornings plunge. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I know some folks who made really good money on regional banks in the 90s and early 2000s. Huge profits. I'm a bit too old so I'm not investing in really risky stuff - except for what I already have, of course - so I've been buying some healthcare/pharmaceutical stocks (AZN and AMGN).

I can put risk on now so yes I am trying to get to where that nest egg is built where we can live off of investment income.  With a bank that is valued 29 cents on the dollar, I feel incredibly save,  especially since debt is 15% of equity.  There is literally no physical way the bank goes bankrupt.  FDIC insured and audited, so feel good about the numbers.  

Beyond that, I don't chance sectors, and I do not know the pharmaceutical/healthcare sector well.   My preferred areas - preferred reits when they get knocked down.  Energy Sector after severe declines.  Right now playing the 4 year cycle on crypto's that has played out to a T.  But that is not to say the trend continues.  Any other sector that is significantly beat up.  Either find best of breed, diversify, or find company feel most comfortable with, and wait for sentiment and economics to change.    I feel comfortable about the next year for my investments, but then you take your profits and significantly de-risk, because I will have achieved effectively my end game.  IRA will be large,  cash investments large.  Minimal Roth, but not sure if will ever be able to take advantage of that.  

[gunnarthor]

On 2/20/2024 at 1:50 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Never too old! I bought more Nvidia after this mornings plunge. 

Looks like a big surge in after hours trading for you!

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

Looks like a big surge in after hours trading for you!

Cool. Was just going to check....

[Mike Sixel]

Nice 16% profit in less than a week on that swing trade.....

[Danchat]

43 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Nice 16% profit in less than a week on that swing trade.....

Wow. I saw your initial post and considered making a move, but dang I didn't think it'd skyrocket that fast!

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Wow. I saw your initial post and considered making a move, but dang I didn't think it'd skyrocket that fast!

I was aiming for five, maybe ten, percent over two weeks.... lucky for me this time. It's not always that way....

[gunnarthor]

Just throwing this out but one stock we've had for a few years that has been stupidly solid is American Express (AXP). Boring but has a nice little dividend and, at least since we've had it, has outperformed the S&P. 

[Mike Sixel]

I told my guy I was going to buy puts on Trump social, and didn't. Damn. 

[ashbury]

12 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Just throwing this out but one stock we've had for a few years that has been stupidly solid is American Express (AXP). Boring but has a nice little dividend and, at least since we've had it, has outperformed the S&P. 

Thank my son Cashbury who works there.

[Mike Sixel]

Yikes. One of the worst weeks ever for me.... And it continues 

[Danchat]

On 4/9/2024 at 10:52 AM, Mike Sixel said:

Yikes. One of the worst weeks ever for me.... And it continues 

What specifically is going down for you?

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

What specifically is going down for you?

I used to work at United health.... And have lots of stock as a result. Also Nvidia down from it's peak.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Lots of the premium starting to come out of the stock market.  My stock MSTR has dropped from nearly $2000 to a low of around $1070 today.  I had June $750 calls,  so the drop allowed me to roll out to January 2025 $1300.  I had to add some cash to the transaction, but very happy with the increase in the strike.  Before it looked like $1150 to $1200 was going to be where I rolled to with a higher price on the stock.  Will have to wait and see if this plays out in my favor but I am fairly confident.  Short interest is increasing and the price is getting much closer to the 100 and 200 day moving averages.  I am not calling a bottom but today was a good opportunity for me to take advantage of lower prices.  Good Luck. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 4/10/2024 at 2:42 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I used to work at United health.... And have lots of stock as a result. Also Nvidia down from it's peak.

 

On 4/9/2024 at 10:52 AM, Mike Sixel said:

Yikes. One of the worst weeks ever for me.... And it continues 

A down turn is one thing, but both of those stocks are up significantly over the last several years.  NVDA if you have been invested since the beginning of 2023 is up 400%  LOL.   Having a pullback was guaranteed.  No different than my MSTR pulling back nearly 50%.  As I stated earlier,  I knew the stock was overvalued almost 200%.  I wasn't going to chase it.  You can still make massive returns in the market.  Just need to be patient,  not chase stocks,  

[gunnarthor]

We added a bunch of Visa as it fell a bit this week because of the DOJ lawsuit. Long-term, it'll probably be a good addition. We've had American Express for a long time as well and that's been a nice stock for us as well.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

We added a bunch of Visa as it fell a bit this week because of the DOJ lawsuit. Long-term, it'll probably be a good addition. We've had American Express for a long time as well and that's been a nice stock for us as well.

I mean, they make an 83% margin, so, ya.....even if the government succeeds in fixing the monopoly, they're fine. I am using Verizon for the dividends right now.

I'm basically (in what I manage, not my advisor) betting on NU, NVIDIA, and UNH (I mean, I got all of this while working there, but I've held it)....with some Verizon.

[Mike Sixel]

Lost an entire basement remodel on UNH today. Sigh. True first world problem...

[gunnarthor]

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lost an entire basement remodel on UNH today. Sigh. True first world problem...

uff-da.

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

uff-da.

Temporary issue

[gunnarthor]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/05/business/china-astrazeneca-detained-hnk-intl/index.html

This stock has sucked for me. Arrest more of them! (sarcasm). 

[Mike Sixel]

Two weeks ago looked like I might not ever have to work again. Now? Sigh. 

[Original_JB]

42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Two weeks ago looked like I might not ever have to work again. Now? Sigh. 

When UNH drops another 15 points or so, it'll be a strong buy.... unless this lone gunman *made* a change to history by his actions. We all know that healthcare costs are an ever climbing cost that the public cannot afford to bear, but outside of barking about it, how much was anything going to change? But now, it's forced into the focus of the news agencies who are likely giddy over the human interest stories they will be able to spin.  Will this one man's actions initiate actual change to the way we deal with healthcare in this country?  Will people look back years from now and 'credit' him in some fashion? I don't know, but he's being regaled as a hero by many. I saw people were posting fake "wanted" posters all over NYC with all the various healthcare CEO's as the villains. Every interview I see seems to have everyone agreeing with how they feel like he does *but* 'killing is wrong'. When the populace all say they'd like to kill you, but it's illegal, I'd be a bit nervous.

[Mike Sixel]

UHG it's tricky right now. 

Insurance companies make more money during economic downturn, which is likely coming. 

But UHG makes insane money managing Medicare and Medicaid, which might get cut. 

The bipartisan bill to force insurance companies to sell their PBM business isn't likely to pass....

I'm any event, I'm likely cancelling plans to finish my basement, alas. 

[gunnarthor]

Over the years, I've made some small purchases of pharmaceutical stocks, figuring as we age, we need (or get forced into) more drugs. Some of those have been good, some bad, but overall not a horrible investment idea and they deliver nice dividends (which I always talk about too much). 

[Mike Sixel]

Considering hedging against what I feel is a likely big drop in value in a month or two or three....

[gunnarthor]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Considering hedging against what I feel is a likely big drop in value in a month or two or three....

Yeah, I think the economy is going to be ... iffy for a bit. But I'm not smart enough to time the market and I'm relatively young(ish) so I'll just buy when I have money and not sell until I need money. That's been my most successful investing strategy overall.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

Yeah, I think the economy is going to be ... iffy for a bit. But I'm not smart enough to time the market and I'm relatively young(ish) so I'll just buy when I have money and not sell until I need money. That's been my most successful investing strategy overall.

Closely related concept to Dollar Cost Averaging, which is a proven win in a decades-long market upswing and is a risk if the economy totally tanks until after you are ready to retire.