The Front Office and Settling For Mediocrity

[DaveW]

Another reason why this trade was frustrating:

The Twins acquired the WRONG young Yankees catcher! Hicks maybe doesn't get Sanchez straight up, but I would give up a decent amount more to get a catcher like him who has upside.

[drjim]

On a bigger point about Murphy I actually think this was more a risky mkve than a safe move for Ryan.

 

He traded for 5 years of control of a potentially undervalued asset that has a decent shot of turning into a solid average or better catcher.

 

The safe/mediocrity move would have been signing one of the veteran catchers floating out there (other than Wieters).

 

This strikes me as a move that is helping to position the team for an extended run over the next 5-6 years.

[DaveW]

 

 

I would think Murphy sits at about a 2-2.5 WAR player. I think that is about where Hicks sits too. I would bet on higher WAR for Hicks mostly because catchers are bigger risks. But if Hicks was in a corner, which he would be opening day for the Twins, obviously his WAR would be lower.

I would buy that there is a higher likelihood Hicks becames a multiple all star type, but I think that is a very small chance.

I would even turn it around and say that because of positional scarcity there is a better chance that Murphy makes one all star team than Hicks (but a better chance Hicks is a multiple all star).

I will be happy with a 2.5 WAR because that is his ceiling and basically makes him a nice but average player.

 

Hicks meanwhile was already on a better than 2.5 WAR pace in 2015 (which is basically his floor at this point) and should continue to improve for sure.

[DaveW]

 

 

On a bigger point about Murphy I actually think this was more a risky mkve than a safe move for Ryan.

He traded for 5 years of control of a potentially undervalued asset that has a decent shot of turning into a solid average or better catcher.

The safe/mediocrity move would have been signing one of the veteran catchers floating out there (other than Wieters).

This strikes me as a move that is helping to position the team for an extended run over the next 5-6 years.

It's about settling for mediocrity instead of looking for impact players. Hicks has the

 upside, JR Murphy does not.

 

That is giving away significant upside/impact type potential for mediocrity. Sort of like when they more or less ran David Ortiz and Liriano out of town..... (non "twins way" type guys who wouldn't listen to "hit to all fields" and "pitch to contact/limit the slider!" coaching)

[twinsnorth49]

I'm not even sure what this thread is about, trading one mediocre player for another mediocre player and therefore reinforcing their mediocrity?

 

Or not trading a mediocre player for a star player and therefore turning water into wine?

 

Why do I care if Hicks ends up posting a higher WAR than Murphy if he provides decent play at catcher and whoever replaces Hicks in the outfield ends up with a higher WAR than Hicks?

[DaveW]

 

Why do I care if Hicks ends up posting a higher WAR than Murphy?

Because that means they got crummy value for Hicks and lost the trade. There was nothing saying that:

1. Hicks had to be traded now

2. Hicks had to be traded this year

3. Hicks had to be traded for a catcher and catcher only

[DaveW]

That's sort of like saying:

 

"What do I care if Nathan and Liriano go on to post higher WARS then AJ? As long as AJ plays solid at catcher and we find a closer in house who cares!"-Giants fans back in the day

[jsteve96]

???? Aaron Hicks became a 20/20 guy with a gold glove? holy $%#$ how long was i sleeping! lets be real man, his defense is barely above league average. His range is top 5 in the league, but his routes.. fangraphs will tell you how bad those are. At Yankee stadium id agree in hicks hitting 20 HRs someday but he will never have a WAR over 2 and our OF is packed with those kind of guys.

 

Murphy is "NOT good" he's slightly above average defensively according to fangraphs and the bat isn't anything special you're right. He had a career .736 OPS in the minors, but even if that hangs close to .700 in the MLB he will be right around league average. whats wrong with giving up a 4th outfielder for a league average catcher? would you rather give up Berrios for 2 years of "Just above average but risky" in Lucroy because theres no way the Twins get him without giving up Sano/Buxton/Berrios/Kepler. for Christ sakes look how much Chris Herrmann just netted, a pretty good prospect

[drjim]

I will be happy with a 2.5 WAR because that is his ceiling and basically makes him a nice but average player.

 

Hicks meanwhile was already on a better than 2.5 WAR pace in 2015 (which is basically his floor at this point) and should continue to improve for sure.

Hicks and Murphy were on the same full season WAR pace last year, even granting that catchers play less.

 

But we are to assume this is Murphy's ceiling and Hicks' floor? Add in the fact Murphy is two years younger and catchers traditionally take slightly longer to develop and I'm not as sure.

[DaveW]

 

???? Aaron Hicks became a 20/20 guy with a gold glove? holy $%#$ how long was i sleeping! lets be real man, his defense is barely above league average.

 

 

Hicks 2015 stats projected over 520 PA (not even a full season) gives him 17 HR and 20SB. At worst he is a 20/20 guy moving forward.

 

He has gold glove talent and potential, the range is all there and he continues to improve on routes. He already is well above average for a CF overall (quite a compliment) and with a little bit more work and improvement he is a gold glover.

[jimmer]

 

? At Yankee stadium id agree in hicks hitting 20 HRs someday but he will never have a WAR over 2 and our OF is packed with those kind of guys.

 

 

He's 26, and had a WAR of 1.5 in only 97 games.  Seems a rather strange proclamation that he will never have a WAR over 2.

[jsteve96]

 

Hicks 2015 stats projected over 520 PA (not even a full season) gives him 17 HR and 20SB. At worst he is a 20/20 guy moving forward.

 

He has gold glove talent and potential, the range is all there and he continues to improve on routes. He already is well above average for a CF overall (quite a compliment) and with a little bit more work and improvement he is a gold glover.

okay so you looked at 300 at bats and projected them over a full year.. projecting Sano hits 36 Home runs and wins AL MVP next year too?

[DaveW]

 

 

Hicks and Murphy were on the same full season WAR pace last year, even granting that catchers play less.

But we are to assume this is Murphy's ceiling and Hicks' floor? Add in the fact Murphy is two years younger and catchers traditionally take slightly longer to develop and I'm not as sure.

Not true.

Hicks was on pace for 2.5+ in both bWAR and fWAR

Murphy was on pace for 1.4 bWAR and 2.1 fWAR

Besides: Hicks played in 30 more games and 200+ more PA

 

And as a bonus:

JR Murphy had a completely unsustainable .359 BABIP anyways.

[jokin]

 

I'm not even sure what this thread is about, trading one mediocre player for another mediocre player and therefore reinforcing their mediocrity?

Or not trading a mediocre player for a star player and therefore turning water into wine?

Why do I care if Hicks ends up posting a higher WAR than Murphy if he provides decent play at catcher and whoever replaces Hicks in the outfield ends up with a higher WAR than Hicks?

 

AS I posted on the Hicks thread... Cameron notes that Hicks projects similarly on Steamer to Gardner and Ellsbury if he gets the full-time gig,(obviously could go higher if in CF full-time). 

 

Meanwhile, Suzuki is virtually guaranteed to play some 130 games and something just below the 485 PA threshold for his option to vest.  It's virtually impossible for Murphy to achieve much more than 0.5 WAR, even if he puts up his BABIP-inflated numbers of the past two years. 

 

In the meantime, the Twins OF defense has now hereby been downgraded- with the catcher position only slightly upgraded. The Twins needed to shop around and insist on adding one or two controllable RP arms along with a catcher for this trade to make sense for a team in win-now mode- as we all assume that the Twins should be.

[jsteve96]

 

He's 26, and had a WAR of 1.5 in only 97 games.  Seems a rather strange proclamation that he will never have a WAR over 2.

you're right i may have looked at this a little to viciously lol.. obviously I'm not the only one who believes he's hit his ceiling though as the ORG traded him.

[twinsnorth49]

Because that means they got crummy value for Hicks and lost the trade. There was nothing saying that:

1. Hicks had to be traded now

2. Hicks had to be traded this year

3. Hicks had to be traded for a catcher and catcher only

They needed a catcher, Hicks's value was as high as it's been and odds are as high as its going to get. So they traded a future 4th OF for something they think can help them more now.

 

Feel free to believe Hicks was worth more of a ransom and possibly more down the road, but don't be shocked that others don't.

[jimmer]

Again, Murphy's BABIP was .357 and his home/away splits for BA and OBP are pretty interesting.  Bring that BABIP down to like .300 and take him out of NY and how does he look?

[nicksaviking]

Because that means they got crummy value for Hicks and lost the trade. There was nothing saying that:

1. Hicks had to be traded now

2. Hicks had to be traded this year

3. Hicks had to be traded for a catcher and catcher only

I agree with points 1-3, but could care less if the Twins "win" the trade. The Yankees may very well have gotten a better player, but if by clearing out Hicks the Twins are now able to give better offensive players his at bats, it's good for the Twins too.

[DaveW]

 

 

odds are as high as its going to get.

I disagree 100% with this, most would as well.

 

For all this 4th OF talk, that assumes that 3 of Rosario (best bet), Buxton (Struggled big time last year), Kepler (no real time above AA) and Arcia (trainwreck last season) immediately produce, not in June, not in July, but immediately. Hicks was set to be the opening day starting CF, let's not say he already was a 4th OF when that clearly wasn't the case, and only becomes the case if all the prospects stay healthy, become productive. (And at that point, THEN you can trade him! I'm sure you can get a low ceiling catcher in return in June)

[twinsnorth49]

That's sort of like saying:

 

"What do I care if Nathan and Liriano go on to post higher WARS then AJ? As long as AJ plays solid at catcher and we find a closer in house who cares!"-Giants fans back in the day

What the?

[jsteve96]

 

Again, Murphy's BABIP was .357 and his home/away splits for BA and OBP are pretty interesting.  Bring that BABIP down to like .300 and take him out of NY and how does he look?

Plenty of hitters have BABIP over .300 every year.  once he becomes a starter his K% will decrease a little along with that BABIP... You just overrate Hicks way to much

[jokin]

 

 But if Hicks was in a corner, which he would be opening day for the Twins, obviously his WAR would be lower.

 

 

Not sure how you came to this conclusion... who was starting in CF in your scenario?

[DaveW]

 

I agree with points 1-3, but could care less if the Twins "win" the trade. The Yankees may very well have gotten a better player, but if by clearing out Hicks the Twins are now able to give better offensive players his at bats, it's good for the Twins too.

Honest question: What "better" offensive players deserve Hicks at bats in April and May?

Let's assume that Rosario locks down a spot. That's one of 3 spots down.

 

Buxton: You really want to start him in the majors, and he is "better" as of April 1st then Hicks? After his massive struggles in the bigs?

 

Kepler: You want to start this guy in the bigs beginning of the year? Hasn't had any real at bats above AA?

 

Arcia: Coming off what could only be called a "terrible year" at best?

 

Again, it's not that you need ONE of those guys to be better than Hicks, you need TWO. The odds that two are a better option then him April 1st? Slim to none. June 15th? 25% July 31st? 40%

 

I don't mind trading him, I mind trading him for such a small and low upside return.

[twinsnorth49]

I disagree 100% with this, most would as well.

 

For all this 4th OF talk, that assumes that 3 of Rosario (best bet), Buxton (Struggled big time last year), Kepler (no real time above AA) and Arcia (trainwreck last season) immediately produce, not in June, not in July, but immediately. Hicks was set to be the opening day starting CF, let's not say he already was a 4th OF when that clearly wasn't the case, and only becomes the case if all the prospects stay healthy, become productive. (And at that point, THEN you can trade him! I'm sure you can get a low ceiling catcher in return in June)

I think the most relevant word in this post is "assumes", because it assumes a lot, especially about Hicks

[jokin]

 

you're right i may have looked at this a little to viciously lol.. obviously I'm not the only one who believes he's hit his ceiling though as the ORG traded him.

 

Not the first time through their own assessments that they got the bad end of a trade for a CF.

[jsteve96]

 

I disagree 100% with this, most would as well.

 

For all this 4th OF talk, that assumes that 3 of Rosario (best bet), Buxton (Struggled big time last year), Kepler (no real time above AA) and Arcia (trainwreck last season) immediately produce, not in June, not in July, but immediately. Hicks was set to be the opening day starting CF, let's not say he already was a 4th OF when that clearly wasn't the case, and only becomes the case if all the prospects stay healthy, become productive. (And at that point, THEN you can trade him! I'm sure you can get a low ceiling catcher in return in June)

at that point teams will know you are more willing to trade him and they don't give you what you want. or also if he starts the year like he has the first 2 season he played he wouldn't get a trade. thats the point of selling high

[DaveW]

 

at that point teams will know you are more willing to trade him and they don't give you what you want. or also if he starts the year like he has the first 2 season he played he wouldn't get a trade. thats the point of selling high

If you get a guy that is widely considered by experts to be a part time/platoon/backup catcher, I can't agree with the notion that you just "sold high" under any real scenario.

[jsteve96]

 

AS I posted on the Hicks thread... Cameron notes that Hicks projects similarly on Steamer to Gardner and Ellsbury if he gets the full-time gig,(obviously could go higher if in CF full-time). 

 

Meanwhile, Suzuki is virtually guaranteed to play some 130 games and something just below the 485 PA threshold for his option to vest.  It's virtually impossible for Murphy to achieve much more than 0.5 WAR, even if he puts up his BABIP-inflated numbers of the past two years. 

 

In the meantime, the Twins OF defense has now hereby been downgraded- with the catcher position only slightly upgraded. The Twins needed to shop around and insist on adding one or two controllable RP arms along with a catcher for this trade to make sense for a team in win-now mode- as we all assume that the Twins should be.

the thing here is the Twins didn't make this trade to make Murphy the back up. He will start.

[jokin]

 

Plenty of hitters have BABIP over .300 every year.  once he becomes a starter his K% will decrease a little along with that BABIP... You just overrate Hicks way to much

 

You underrate Brian Cashman way too much.

[jsteve96]

 

If you get a guy that is widely considered by experts to be a part time/platoon/backup catcher, I can't agree with the notion that you just "sold high" under any real scenario.

experts also considered Hicks at best a 4th outfielder and before July they considered him gone.