Baseball America's Top 20 GCL Prospects

[jokin]

 

"Who was the last SS they drafted and developed that went on to a good MLB career as a SS?"
Counterpoint?
I had no idea we were arguing.
I just tried to answer your question.
If you prefer Greg Gagne or Zoilo Versalles, pick whichever one fits your unspecified requirements.

 

I gotta admit, and not trying to be argumentative, I too was thinking a little bit of satire was being injected on your part. sane.  I think most reasonable people would agree that your use of the word "good" shouldn't accompany a description of Meares' net accumulation of 2.6 fWAR over 9 MLB years.

[sane]

I gotta admit, and not trying to be argumentative, I too was thinking a little bit of satire was being injected on your part. sane.  I think most reasonable people would agree that your use of the word "good" shouldn't accompany a description of Meares' net accumulation of 2.6 fWAR over 9 MLB years.

And I gotta admit, I didn't look up Meares' fWAR, but if you last nine years in MLB at SS, and you were born north of the Rio Grande, you are "good" in my book. Of course,my WAR guru is Edwin Starr. (WAR!, What is it good for?.. Absolutely Nothin'; Good God y'all!

[jokin]

 

And I gotta admit, I didn't look up Meares' fWAR, but if you last nine years in MLB at SS, and you were born north of the Rio Grande, you are "good" in my book. Of course,my WAR guru is Edwin Starr. (WAR!, What is it good for?.. Absolutely Nothin'; Good God y'all!

 

The concept of WAR was developed in part, to put some qualitative quantification on what actually constitutes what "good" is and separate facts from myth, rumor, legend and "conventional wisdom".  Fact is, Meares was not all that good relative to the SS of his era..  Despite playing the 11th most games for all SS from 1993-2001, and the 20th most PAs, he ranks 45th in fWAR for all SS during those 9 years. To put that number ranking into further perspective- Do we consider Jeff Reboulet to be "good"? I was actually somewhat surprised to find that Reb ranked 28th over the same time frame- with more than double the fWAR  @ 5.3

 

 Defensively, no doubt Meares was decent, but his TZ score of 5, grades out on the scale used for that metric as exactly "above average"  (with a 10 score being "great" and 15 being "gold glove caliber").

 

In Meares' 3 best years with the Twins, 1995-1997, he did accumulate 4.8 WAR, but that still only ranked 12th among all qualified SS in those 3 years.  That sounds like more "slightly above average" production, even during his peak career 3 years.

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

And almost a year younger than Palacios, and he bats left handed- his plate discipline was outstanding both in the DSL and the GCL.  Looking forward to any reports you might have, Bob, on how both Arraez and Palacios are doing this month.

The two are good friends, Palacios' english is more advanced between the two, Luis is a nice kid who has a good eye at the plate and good glove.  I'd say upside as a utility infielder 2B/3B/SS. 

[sane]

Meares DOESN'T rate a "good" rating despite playing the 11th most games for all MLB SS from 1993-2001,and being "ranked 12th among all qualified MLB SS in his peak 3 years?

 

Do you understand that ONLY ONE-HALF of one percent of ALL high school players are drafted?

Do you understand that ONLY 17.2 percent of ALL drafted players reach MLB?

So 86 players out of every 100,000 HS players reach the Major Leagues.

And a SHORTSTOP who ranks in the top 15 of MLB SS is not "good"?

Anyone in the top .00086 of his HS graduating class in a given category is EXCELLENT in that category.

And WAR is a bad thing!

lol

 

[jokin]

 

Meares DOESN'T rate a "good" rating despite playing the 11th most games for all MLB SS from 1993-2001,and being "ranked 12th among all qualified MLB SS in his peak 3 years? ***

 

Do you understand that ONLY ONE-HALF of one percent of ALL high school players are drafted?

Do you understand that ONLY 17.2 percent of ALL drafted players reach MLB?

So 86 players out of every 100,000 HS players reach the Major Leagues.

And a SHORTSTOP who ranks in the top 15 of MLB SS is not "good"?

Anyone in the top .00086 of his HS graduating class in a given category is EXCELLENT in that category.

And WAR is a bad thing!

lol

 

I do understand and acknowledge that he's better than you and I at SS ( I'm a lefty, so I never got my shot at SS ), and he's considered "good" versus all the other high schoolers and minor leaguers that never made the majors.  It's just that he's just not considered "good" amongst his actual MLB peers, the rest of us mere peons just don't belong anywhere in that same conversation.

 

***(1) With WAR being a cumulative stat, being ranked 11th in games played should translate and correlate to much higher than 45th in WAR rankings for SS in order to be considered "good"- it's obvious on a bell curve distribution that Meares is on the wrong side of the graph- 45th out of 76.  2) Meares had 1040 PAs between 1993 and 1995 to just barely qualify as "qualified" in the Fangraphs rankings.  If you move the parameters down just 40 PAs- to the 1000 PA threshold during the same time frame- Meares drops to 17th rated SS out of 25- that again is pretty clearly, not "good".)

[jokin]

 

The two are good friends, Palacios' english is more advanced between the two, Luis is a nice kid who has a good eye at the plate and good glove.  I'd say upside as a utility infielder 2B/3B/SS. 

  

+1

 

Just looking at the picture, Palacios just has that confident "look" and build of a budding star. The both look like fun-loving future fan favorites.

 

Do you have a feeling for where this duo starts out in 2016?  Can Palacios get right on the fast track to Cedar Rapids out of Spring Training and set his own timetable from there based on his performance?

And is Arraez's arm good enough to become a true solid utility man?

[dougd]

This is what Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus said of Arreas on August 24:

In the low levels of the minors, there are a ton of slick-fielding, athletic middle infielders with little to no power. It's not that that's a bad profile, but in order to stand out, a player in this mold has to have something extra. Arraez is doing that thus far, as his something extra is bat control within the strike zone. This is aided by an incredibly short swing path that makes no attempt to drive the ball or hit for any power, but there are plenty of players with similar swings who still swing and miss plenty. Arraez, despite being just 18 and stateside for the first time, makes contact at incredibly consistent rates, and even though he doesn't drive the ball, he does connect solidly. His approach is primarily to hit up the middle and the other way, which limits his power even further.

Arraez is limited to second base and needs to hit .300 to succeed, and average foot speed limits his overall profile further, but his contact skills and barrel control are also rare for an 18-year-old, which gives him a chance to max out that profile. – Jeff Moore

[Mike Sixel]

Sorry to sidetrack things with the SS question.......

 

At some point, not developing good players is on the organization. birdwatcher doesn't agree, I am fine with that, we'll never agree on this point, ever.

 

As for the guys we are discussing, it is great that some of them are looking like they could be good. That's exciting.

[bird]

 

'People want to make the correlation, especially when it supports a belief that incompetence has been on display.'

 

Some people want to say everyone on the Twins scouting/development staff is competent by discounting all the evidence to the contrary as a coincidence.

 

This will be the 5th year in a row that our pitching staff as a whole ranked dead last in the majors in Ks.  2010 was the last time we didn't, we were 25th that year, and we haven't been higher than 22nd since Johan left.  This kind of consistency isn't just some fluke.  And I wouldn't count any chickens before they are hatched in regards to this supposed guarantee this coincidence is about to turn around.

 

 

If you blamed this long stretch of ineptitude solely on poor scouting and drafting, then you and I would be entirely in disagreement. My point, apparently poorly made, is that other factors are the more likely culprit, and some of those factors are human failings, others a matter of luck or circumstance, such as injuries and draft position. You have never heard the word "coincidence" from me. Attribution, yes.

 

I'm very skeptical that there's something fundamentally flawed about the way the organization goes about the development process, at ANY position. A couple years back, they couldn't develop middle infielders. Now the same people are good at it. Today, they can't develop pitchers, especially flame-throwers, according to jokin and others among you. I don't see a shred of real evidence that the problem is either scouting or development as you insist.

 

And I haven't heard one person claim everyone in scouting and  development is competent, jimmer. Frankly, how would any of us know?

 

 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Sorry to sidetrack things with the SS question.......

 

At some point, not developing good players is on the organization. birdwatcher doesn't agree, I am fine with that, we'll never agree on this point, ever.

 

As for the guys we are discussing, it is great that some of them are looking like they could be good. That's exciting.

 

yes and no.  I do agree that at some level the organization deserves criticism for failing to develop certain types of talent.  On the flip side, when 2 guysin 40 is considered a good draft, I think people start getting unreasonble pretty quick.  Developing ML talent is hard.  If there was a sure fire way to do it, the draft would be much smaller.

[ashbury]

Meares DOESN'T rate a "good" rating despite playing the 11th most games for all MLB SS from 1993-2001,

I know it's not done with bad intention, but this is one classic form of "cherry picking" of statistics, to make the very best possible case for one player but for no other (or at most, few others).

 

A  good player whose career happened to start just a little after 1993 will not tally up as many games during this span. Derek Jeter played in only 936 games, versus Meares's 982.

 

A good player whose career happened to end just a little before 2001 will not run up his numbers, either. Alan Trammel played only 328. And Honus Wagner played 0, the bum.

 

It's a very specific span that coincides with the one player's career. And if he only ranks 11th in this manner, at any given point within this time span he likely ranked much much lower among his peers. 

 

Side note, I don't have any particular quarrel with using games-played as a metric, among many that could be chosen. No bad player is ever going to get put in the lineup by a manager, for a long enough span of time.

[sane]

Another factor involved in drafting / developing players at a given position is "drafting for need".

 

I am thinking the Orioles didn't draft or develop many MLB shortstops while Cal Ripken was their starter.

 

And the Braves weren't drafting a lot of starting pitchers while Glavin, Smoltz, Maddux, Avery, etc.were on the roster.

[bird]

 

Sorry to sidetrack things with the SS question.......

 

At some point, not developing good players is on the organization. birdwatcher doesn't agree, I am fine with that, we'll never agree on this point, ever.

 

As for the guys we are discussing, it is great that some of them are looking like they could be good. That's exciting.

 

 

Then, at least we agree that when good players are developed, that's on the organization too. Right?

 

Right?

 

 

BTW, not developing good players is on the organization. We've always agreed on this point. We disagree with what causes this to happen.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Then, at least we agree that when good players are developed, that's on the organization too. Right?

 

Right?

 

 

BTW, not developing good players is on the organization. We've always agreed on this point. We disagree with what causes this to happen.

 

Have I ever said otherwise, ever?