I told you so! (Or did I?)

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

During the offseason, there were a lot of players that the Twins could have signed via free agency. There was plenty of lively debate about Center Field and Left Field, as well as how the Twins might solve issues in the bullpen and Starting Rotation.

 

Two guys I recall mentioning several times were Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus.

 

Here are three batting lines avg / obp / slug:

 

Player A: .238 / .310 / .452

 

Player B: .245 / .300 / .432

 

Player C: .285 / .325 / .405

 

That's Rasmus, Torii Hunter, and Cabrera in 2015.

 

I wanted either of those two guys over Torii, but over the course of the year, Hunter has hung in there. Can't really shout "I told you so" about that one, I expected better numbers from both of those guys, who have been just slightly better than Torii (looking at OPS+)....

 

Can anyone say they had the Twins going after a particular free-agent player this off-season that has ended up being a difference maker?

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

For what it's worth, park factors are probably making a difference here.  Despite similar OPS figures, there is a bit of a difference in OPS+, wRC+, and batting runs (Rbat B-Ref):

 

Rasmus: 109 OPS+, 110 wRC+, 3 Rbat

Hunter: 99 OPS+, 101 wRC+, -2 Rbat

Cabrera: 107 OPS+, 100 wRC+, 3 Rbat

 

Rasmus in particular has offered plus defense, including covering some CF, and plus baserunning at B-Ref.  He's averaging 2 WAR between B-Ref and Fangraphs right now.  Cabrera's averaging 1.1 (Fangraphs dislikes his defense), and Hunter 0.5 or so.

 

The nice thing about a Rasmus pick up is that we could also have been spared some of Schafer/Robinson -- he would have offered a CF alternative from day 1.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Rasmus has been the best of the three, no doubt in my mind about that, it's more a question of how much better. The defensive side of the equation still burns a bit - though having Hicks come back and little bit of Buxton sprinkled in has lessened my angst about CF. Rosario has done well in LF.  

 

is 10 OPS+ points a lot? Hunter is the HR and RBI leader of the three for what ever that might be worth. Cabrera's only hit 7 homers, which is much less than I thought he'd have to this point in the season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Can anyone say they had the Twins going after a particular free-agent player this off-season that has ended up being a difference maker?

I remember some advocated for a Neshek reunion.  Hard to argue that wouldn't have made a difference!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Rasmus has been the best of the three, no doubt in my mind about that, it's more a question of how much better. The defensive side of the equation still burns a bit - though having Hicks come back and little bit of Buxton sprinkled in has lessened my angst about CF. Rosario has done well in LF. 

Interesting about Rasmus -- I know some of the speculation was that he would be looking for a full-time CF gig, but he hasn't been a regular CF for Houston, and for that matter he seems to have been in a platoon / part-time role at times, even in the corners (he's been healthy most of the year, but has fewer OF starts than Hunter).  Could have really given us some mix-and-match options, without displacing Hicks or Rosario.

 

is 10 OPS+ points a lot? Hunter is the HR and RBI leader of the three for what ever that might be worth. Cabrera's only hit 7 homers, which is much less than I thought he'd have to this point in the season.

According to B-Ref, the OPS+ difference between Rasmus and Hunter is worth about 5-6 batting runs so far, or about half a win.

 

Defensive difference is about a full win, and Rasmus also picks up about half a win on Hunter on the bases and in positional adjustment (Rasmus has played some CF, Hunter some DH).  One could add a slight further adjustment for Hunter requiring Robinson as his caddy.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Rasmus has been the best of the three, no doubt in my mind about that, it's more a question of how much better. The defensive side of the equation still burns a bit - though having Hicks come back and little bit of Buxton sprinkled in has lessened my angst about CF. Rosario has done well in LF.  

 

is 10 OPS+ points a lot? Hunter is the HR and RBI leader of the three for what ever that might be worth. Cabrera's only hit 7 homers, which is much less than I thought he'd have to this point in the season.

 

It's negligible, and even with Arcia's struggles, they've been fine in the outfield.

 

Certainly not enough to make up for the fact that Melky got multiple years. 

[jimmer]

Twins OF: 25th in WAR. 27th in wRC+ (90), and 25th in DRS (-20 runs saved).

 

Totally fine in the OF.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's negligible, and even with Arcia's struggles, they've been fine in the outfield.

 

Certainly not enough to make up for the fact that Melky got multiple years. 

I'm right there with you on Melky, I didn't like him for us on that contract.

 

But Rasmus took a one year deal, for less money than Hunter, apparently without much of a starting guarantee.  And it looks like he would have been perfect for us (could have started in CF to begin the year, then shifted to a corner or even 4th OF to make room for the kids).  When all is said and done, Rasmus could easily have been worth 2-3 wins overall over Hunter/Schafer/Robinson -- which right now is the difference between us and a playoff spot.

 

No word on Rasmus's clubhouse DJ skills...

[drjim]

They strike me as close enough to think any would have been similar.

 

Relative to Hunter, any gain for Cabrera is washed out by the extra year and any gain by Rasmus is washed out by 80 fewer pa.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

is 10 OPS+ points a lot? Hunter is the HR and RBI leader of the three for what ever that might be worth.

Rasmus has hit HR at about the same per-PA rate.  Also, he's most frequently batted behind .269 OBP Evan Gattis, which has probably impacted his RBI rate.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I'm starting to lean towards "I told you so" on Rasmus. But at the same time I think Hunter, for all his faults, could have been a lot worse.

 

I guess that's the bigger takeaway for me - Hunter exceeded my expectations, while Melky and Rasmus have had less impact than I thought they would for their respective teams...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Relative to Hunter, any gain for Cabrera is washed out by the extra year and any gain by Rasmus is washed out by 80 fewer pa.

Not sure why the fewer PA should have wash out anything.  It certainly doesn't by WAR.

 

Rasmus missed 6 games with an infection, and 3 games for the death of his grandmother.  Otherwise, his fewer PA is the result of the Astros mixing-and-matching with other outfielders, flexibility the Twins could have also benefitted from.

[jimmer]

 

I'm starting to lean towards "I told you so" on Rasmus. But at the same time I think Hunter, for all his faults, could have been a lot worse.

 

I guess that's the bigger takeaway for me - Hunter exceeded my expectations, while Melky and Rasmus have had less impact than I thought they would for their respective teams...

what kind of slashline did you figure Hunter would give?

 

how are you gauging the impact of the three players?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I guess that's the bigger takeaway for me - Hunter exceeded my expectations, while Melky and Rasmus have had less impact than I thought they would for their respective teams...

I'm not sure what impact you thought Rasmus would have.  He's beating his career OPS+ and having his 3rd best WAR season of his career, second best since 2010.  His team is in first place despite a significant injury to their star RF, a poor season from their opening day CF, and an even worse showing from the LF who shared time with Rasmus early in the season.

 

EDIT TO ADD: Also not sure what your expectations for Hunter were.  He's slightly under-performed his ZiPS projection, with very mixed reviews of his defense.

[KGB]

Based on total WAR numbers, the Twins should have 3rd worst win total in baseball, but they are middle of the pack in actual wins.  Must be the intangible's Hunter brings to the team that make up the difference.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Based on total WAR numbers, the Twins should have 3rd worst win total in baseball, but they are middle of the pack in actual wins.  Must be the intangible's Hunter brings to the team that make up the difference.

 

You can't use WAR that way........it doesn't take into account sequencing and other things. That's 100% not what it is trying to measure. Base runs, otoh, can be used that way, iirc.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

what kind of slashline did you figure Hunter would give?

 

how are you gauging the impact of the three players?

The rate stats for Hunter are about right, maybe a bit higher than I thought. It's the fact that he's played as much as he has and already passed his 2014 total in HRs that is surprising to me.

 

If the Twins signed Rasmus instead of Hunter and Rasmus put up exactly the stats he has put up, would the Twins have the Astros record right now?

 

I think Rasmus has had the best season of the three (as he should have) , but I don't think it would turn around the Twins' season the way I would have envisioned it over the winter...

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

I'm not sure what impact you thought Rasmus would have.  He's beating his career OPS+ and having his 3rd best WAR season of his career, second best since 2010.  His team is in first place despite a significant injury to their star RF, a poor season from their opening day CF, and an even worse showing from the LF who shared time with Rasmus early in the season.

 

EDIT TO ADD: Also not sure what your expectations for Hunter were.  He's slightly under-performed his ZiPS projection, with very mixed reviews of his defense.

it's counting stats rather than rate stats - I expected Rasmus to do essentially what he's done, but played more often. He's entering his prime, so I was optimistic that he'd have a breakout season. He's been good this year.

 

For Hunter, I expected Bret Boone / Tony Bautista / big dropoff. The Rate stats I think were about where I thought, but I didn't think he'd make it this far into the season healthy and relatively productive.

[Rosterman]

 

I remember some advocated for a Neshek reunion.  Hard to argue that wouldn't have made a difference!

I would've gone after Pat, too. But doubt the Twins would pony up the $13 million he got for two years with a option buyout. The Twins would have hardballed for one year.

 

I might've gone after LaTroy Hawking to really bring the band back together.

 

I also would've 40-manned Sean Gilmartin instead of Zack Wheeler. Thinking Gilmartin might go unclaimed was a mistake, and he would've been a fine lefty out of our bullpen...if only we knew.

 

I also would've made a concentrated effort to get A.J. in the fold, as he seemed basically fine to sign with Atlanta as a backup, comapred to the seasn below where he wanted to start (and we didn't think he would start because we had...Pinto).

 

I am somewhat tired off too much diamond-in-the-rough trolling with finding a gem, and then not doing anuthing sooner rather than just letting them walk (Guerrer first, Burton second, Fien third, for example) if they succeed. And not cutting bait with those guys who we basically just have a free-agent contract (i.e. money, not prospects) as part of the deal.

 

Explain Worley to me. Okay, he wasn't good. But to option him, and then sell him because there were no starts for him at Rochester. And for how much? Have we used that bags of balls up yet?

 

My two favorite responses that seem to happen with the Twins front office: "We don't want to pay that much money!" (although they do overpay, all the time: Nolasco, Correia, Stauffer, even Santana), and "We offered two years, they wanted three, or an option year, or free checking at Marquette Banks)"

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins (and Terry Ryan) could have waited 3 months to sign Rasmus instead of Hunter (who would have then signed with Kansas City in the meanwhile), but Rasmus may not have signed the same contract with the Twins that he ended up signing. We don't know if he had any interest in playing here. The Twins could have ended up with no one.

[Linus]

I was an advocate of signing Rasmus, but primarily because of the ability to play CF, not so much the bat.  As it turns out, we've been fine in CF, and I wouldn't have wanted him to get Rosarios playing time.  Difference between he and Hunter - not so much that I really care.  Plus, there were concerns about Rasmus' clubhouse presence.

[Mike Sixel]

Russell Martin.....Russell Martin.....

 

I don't recall where I came down on Yasmany Thomas, but it probably looks stupid now.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

it's counting stats rather than rate stats - I expected Rasmus to do essentially what he's done, but played more often.

Again, Rasmus playing time is mostly a function of the Astros usage of him.  The fact that he signed with a team with that usage plan for him, from day 1, and has performed well with that usage, would have bode well for his role with the Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I was an advocate of signing Rasmus, but primarily because of the ability to play CF, not so much the bat.  As it turns out, we've been fine in CF, and I wouldn't have wanted him to get Rosarios playing time.

We weren't fine in CF for the first month-plus of the season.  Or the 2-3 weeks Hicks was injured (remember Danny Santana starting in CF again?).  Do you also remember Escobar's 27 starts in LF?

 

Rasmus would have given us the same flexibility he gave the Astros in that regard, where he has covered for injuries and under-performers at all 3 outfield spots, while taking his share of turns on the bench when needed too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins (and Terry Ryan) could have waited 3 months to sign Rasmus instead of Hunter (who would have then signed with Kansas City in the meanwhile), but Rasmus may not have signed the same contract with the Twins that he ended up signing. We don't know if he had any interest in playing here. The Twins could have ended up with no one.

Part of this is a chicken-and-egg problem (or some kind of cause-and-effect?).  We targeted Hunter very early, almost from the moment the World Series ended, and never showed any interest in signing Rasmus.  Our aggressive approach with Hunter reduced Rasmus's theoretical opportunities and contributed to his lengthy wait.

 

I am normally receptive to your line of reasoning, and yes we'll never know anything for sure, but in this case, given what we know (he signed for less with an identical record 2014 team, didn't even get a guaranteed everyday job, much less in CF which we could have offered), I think an early offer to Rasmus instead of Hunter would have had a decent likelihood of landing the player around Hunter's price.

[KGB]

 

You can't use WAR that way........it doesn't take into account sequencing and other things. That's 100% not what it is trying to measure. Base runs, otoh, can be used that way, iirc.

If you can't use a stat that is "Wins above Replacement" and have it correlate to actual wins, it's really a meaningless stat.  But that been discussed before.

[Linus]

 

We weren't fine in CF for the first month-plus of the season.  Or the 2-3 weeks Hicks was injured (remember Danny Santana starting in CF again?).  Do you also remember Escobar's 27 starts in LF?

 

Rasmus would have given us the same flexibility he gave the Astros in that regard, where he has covered for injuries and under-performers at all 3 outfield spots, while taking his share of turns on the bench when needed too.

Fair enough.  Like I said, I wanted to sign him but it would have been in place of Hunter so we still would have been running somebody out there we didn't like from time to time, at least until Hicks and Rosario settled in.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you can't use a stat that is "Wins above Replacement" and have it correlate to actual wins, it's really a meaningless stat.  But that been discussed before.

 

No, not at all.....it's purpose is to measure the talent of a player, independent of the context of any one game. It is not, even a little, meant to predict how a team would do by adding up individual WAR. That's not what it is intended to do at all.

[bird]

 

I'm right there with you on Melky, I didn't like him for us on that contract.

 

But Rasmus took a one year deal, for less money than Hunter, apparently without much of a starting guarantee.  And it looks like he would have been perfect for us (could have started in CF to begin the year, then shifted to a corner or even 4th OF to make room for the kids).  When all is said and done, Rasmus could easily have been worth 2-3 wins overall over Hunter/Schafer/Robinson -- which right now is the difference between us and a playoff spot.

 

No word on Rasmus's clubhouse DJ skills...

 

 

If we buy Rasmus being worth a couple wins based on his baseball statistics and ignore his major suckage as a dancer and DJ, yes, he would have been a better choice. I'm wondering how we'd go about factoring the immeasurables though, and didn't Rasmus sit in his living room for a good part of the winter with no takers? Makes me wonder about his real value to his club as opposed to a hypothetical value based on the stats.

 

At any rate, selecting Hunter instead of Rasmus seems to be about the least of this team's problems. I'd call it a wash, and passing on Melky was a decent decision.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Fair enough.  Like I said, I wanted to sign him but it would have been in place of Hunter so we still would have been running somebody out there we didn't like from time to time, at least until Hicks and Rosario settled in.

I don't know.  Arcia went down just before Rosario and Hicks came up anyway, right?  I think Rasmus's flexibility definitely reduces the amount of "running somebody out there we didn't like".

 

One could have gotten creative to get both Rasmus and Hunter in the lineup, especially with our short leash for Vargas at DH, but that probably would have been overkill and it would have eventually cost opportunities for Rosario or Hicks too.