This lineup without Sano is not good

[USAFChief]

Frankly, I don't really care about Arcia's MiLB numbers unless they're horrific. The kid has 850 MLB PAs of 100 OPS+ hitting. The Twins could use that right now.

Concur.

 

He doesn't have to be great, or even good. He just has to be better than what they're getting. Used primarily against RH pitching, there's a good chance he would be.

 

Low BA, low OBP while occasionally running into a fastball for a HR is better than lw BA, low OBP while never hitting a HR.

[jimmer]

 

Frankly, I don't really care about Arcia's MiLB numbers unless they're horrific. The kid has 850 MLB PAs of 100 OPS+ hitting. The Twins could use that right now.

And that's fair, but he also plays horrible defense. shouldn't we need a batter much better than he's shown in his short career in order to lessen the damage done playing the field? I mean, if it's still about staying in the playoff hunt in 2015?

 

He's at 104 wRC+ for his career, slightly above league average, and has played horrible defense by whatever measure you want to use.  He's an overall minus player right now.

 

If we say put him at DH, well Sano is there.

 

But this season should be about giving the young guys as much time as possible to see what we have.  He should be playing RF I guess.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And that's fair, but he also plays horrible defense. shouldn't we need a batter much better than he's shown in his short career in order to lessen the damage done playing the field? I mean, if it's still about staying in the playoff hunt in 2015?

 

He's at 104 wRC+ for his career, slightly above league average, and has played horrible defense by whatever measure you want to use.  He's an overall minus player right now.

 

If we say put him at DH, well Sano is there.

 

But this season should be about giving the young guys as much time as possible to see what we have.  He should be playing RF I guess.

Arcia wouldn't be starting if I was manager. He'd spot Hunter and Sano at RF/DH and get the occasional start against a righty in place of Rosario. He'd be a roving bat that spent at least half his time on the bench.

 

I'd like to get Arcia more playing time than that but the Twins are in contention. They have better players at his natural position... but that doesn't mean he can't have value if used wisely.

 

And boy, how nice would it be to have Arcia coming off the bench in a one run game with a runner on second base?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He doesn't have to be great, or even good. He just has to be better than what they're getting.

Yep. It's a different form of the Santana/Escobar argument.

 

Yeah, it'd be nice to have great players at every position... but the Twins aren't even using the best assets they have on hand.

 

Will Arcia be Miggy Cabrera? No, but he'll be better than Shane Robinson. Will Escobar be Tulowitzki? No, but he'll be better than Danny Santana.

 

And that's what matters when every win is crucial down the stretch.

[jimmer]

 

Arcia wouldn't be starting if I was manager. He'd spot Hunter and Sano at RF/DH and get the occasional start against a righty in place of Rosario. He'd be a roving bat that spent at least half his time on the bench.

 

I'd like to get Arcia more playing time than that but the Twins are in contention. They have better players at his natural position... but that doesn't mean he can't have value if used wisely.

 

And boy, how nice would it be to have Arcia coming off the bench in a one run game with a runner on second base?

As long as Arcia didn't come up to Moltior in that situation suggesting a bunt and Molitor agreed, it would be awfully nice. (I know, not the same situation as we had two nights ago, but still. UGH!):-)

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

As long as Arcia didn't come up to Moltior in that situation suggesting a bunt and Molitor agreed, it would be awfully nice. (I know, not the same situation as we had two nights ago, but still. UGH!):-)

I've heard that if you say the word "bunt" within 20 feet of Oswaldo Arcia, he punches you in the face, breaks a bat over his knee, and strikes out in his next at-bat just because he can.

[jimmer]

 

Yep. It's a different form of the Santana/Escobar argument.

 

Yeah, it'd be nice to have great players at every position... but the Twins aren't even using the best assets they have on hand.

 

Will Arcia be Miggy Cabrera? No, but he'll be better than Shane Robinson. Will Escobar be Tulowitzki? No, but he'll be better than Danny Santana.

 

And that's what matters when every win is crucial down the stretch.

Would he be better at DH than Sano? Better, overall (defense and offense combined) at a corner spot than who they have there now?  I'm asking what you think.

[jimmer]

 

I've heard that if you say the word "bunt" within 20 feet of Oswaldo Arcia, he punches you in the face, breaks a bat over his knee, and strikes out in his next at-bat just because he can.

FANTASTICI!!!!  Great laugh early in the morning.  Thank you!!!!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Would he be better at DH than Sano? Better at a corner spot than who they have there now?  I'm asking what you think.

I don't think he'll be better than Sano but he'd be nice insurance if it came to that. Miguel is going to suffer through some rough patches in the next couple of months. It'd be nice to have a competent bat to spell him when that happens.

 

As for the corner, I don't see Arcia being a worse option than what Torii Hunter has been for the past 6-8 weeks. They're both defensively incompetent to some degree and Arcia is young and fresh at the plate. I think spelling Hunter in right improves the RF situation quite a bit. Arcia should be decent against righties and rest should help Hunter get back into his game.

[DaveW]

 

Arcia wouldn't be starting if I was manager. He'd spot Hunter and Sano at RF/DH and get the occasional start against a righty in place of Rosario. He'd be a roving bat that spent at least half his time on the bench.

 

I'd like to get Arcia more playing time than that but the Twins are in contention. They have better players at his natural position... but that doesn't mean he can't have value if used wisely.

 

And boy, how nice would it be to have Arcia coming off the bench in a one run game with a runner on second base?

First of all, Sano should be in the lineup every single game. Nobody should be taking at bats from Sano, just like nobody should be taking taking at bats from Dozier, Mauer or Plouffe at this junction as well.

 

I don't see why you wouldn't start Arcia over Hunter vs RHP, if you are going to bring up Arcia he needs to be getting consistent at bats, the one place that makes sense is with a platoon with Hunter.

[jimmer]

 

I don't think he'll be better than Sano but he'd be nice insurance if it came to that. Miguel is going to suffer through some rough patches in the next couple of months. It'd be nice to have a competent bat to spell him when that happens.

 

As for the corner, I don't see Arcia being a worse option than what Torii Hunter has been for the past 6-8 weeks. They're both defensively incompetent to some degree and Arcia is young and fresh at the plate. I think spelling Hunter in right improves the RF situation quite a bit. Arcia should be decent against righties and rest should help Hunter get back into his game.

that makes sense.  we talk a lot about earning promotions in the system around here.  seeing what Arcia has done lately in AAA, does that warrant a promotion?  His 86 wRC+ so far this year in the majors along with horrible D warranted the demotion for an unproven player who still has options available for sure.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

First of all, Sano should be in the lineup every single game. Nobody should be taking at bats from Sano, just like nobody should be taking taking at bats from Dozier, Mauer or Plouffe at this junction as well.

 

I don't see why you wouldn't start Arcia over Hunter vs RHP, if you are going to bring up Arcia he needs to be getting consistent at bats, the one place that makes sense is with a platoon with Hunter.

Who said Sano wouldn't be playing almost every day? He's going to get some reps at third as the season winds down. That opens up the DH spot for Arcia on occasion. Put Sano at third against the occasional righty (flyball pitcher on the mound is preferred), give Trevor a break, and slide Arcia into the DH spot.

 

Personally, I'd almost strictly platoon Hunter/Arcia but that's just not going to happen. Veteran deference and all that. I'll be satisfied if Oswaldo spells Hunter once a week. Twice would be amazing.

[DaveW]

 

Who said Sano wouldn't be playing almost every day? He's going to get some reps at third as the season winds down. That opens up the DH spot for Arcia on occasion.

 

Personally, I'd almost strictly platoon Hunter/Arcia but that's just not going to happen. Veteran deference and all that. I'll be satisfied if Oswaldo spells Hunter once a week. Twice would be amazing.

I assume in most of those scenarios that Plouffe would move to 1B and Mauer to DH? I don't think you can make an argument on playing Arcia over any of those guys. How many more "off days" do Plouffe and Mauer need the rest of the year, I am guessing 2 for Plouffe and 3 or 4 for Mauer tops. That's simply not enough to justify Arcia being on the roster yet. If he is up, he needs to be starting no less than 3 games a week minimum to continue his hitting development tool, and the only way that happens is if you have him essentially split time with Hunter.

 

Either way, he should be up with the team regardless in late August (once the minors are basically done). In the meantime, if TR and co are going to continue to ride with Hunter as the every day RF, I think the Twins need to seriously think about picking up a AAAA masher type in the meantime just so they actually have a PH option on the bench. There is no reason why guys like Suzuki and Santana should be hitting late in close games. It would be really nice if we had Colabello or Parmelee to fill this role currenlty. Hell, even a Valencia.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I assume in most of those scenarios that Plouffe would move to 1B and Mauer to DH? I don't think you can make an argument on playing Arcia over any of those guys. How many more "off days" do Plouffe and Mauer need the rest of the year, I am guessing 2 for Plouffe and 3 or 4 for Mauer tops. That's simply not enough to justify Arcia being on the roster yet. If he is up, he needs to be starting no less than 3 games a week minimum to continue his hitting development tool, and the only way that happens is if you have him essentially split time with Hunter.

 

Either way, he should be up with the team regardless in late August (once the minors are basically done). In the meantime, if TR and co are going to continue to ride with Hunter as the every day RF, I think the Twins need to seriously think about picking up a AAAA masher type in the meantime just so they actually have a PH option on the bench. There is no reason why guys like Suzuki and Santana should be hitting late in close games. It would be really nice if we had Colabello or Parmelee to fill this role currenlty. Hell, even a Valencia.

I'm not worried about Arcia's offensive game. He has 850 MLB PAs. I'd *like* to get him into the lineup on a daily basis but he has the experience where I no longer think that is necessary.

 

We need to remember that Arcia keeps bouncing between Minnesota and the minors because of injuries, not offensive incompetence. He's not Aaron Hicks, who needed to play every day because there was a critical flaw in his game. Arcia is a decent - maybe good - bat who is terrible in the outfield. That's not going to change much, in my opinion.

 

And his bat is good enough to be in Minnesota right now. He established that a long time ago.

[DaveW]

 

I'm not worried about Arcia's offensive game. He has 850 MLB PAs. I'd *like* to get him into the lineup on a daily basis but he has the experience where I no longer think that is necessary.

 

We need to remember that Arcia keeps bouncing between Minnesota and the minors because of injuries, not offensive incompetence. He's not Aaron Hicks, who needed to play every day because there was a critical flaw in his game. Arcia is a decent - maybe good - bat who is terrible in the outfield. That's not going to change much, in my opinion.

 

And his bat is good enough to be in Minnesota right now. He established that a long time ago.

I think he would be an instant upgrade to Hunter now, but I still worry about his offensive game, he simply is striking out too much and not walking enough to take that next "step" to be a real asset for a team. He is still very young, which is why I think both areas can improve, the only way those improve are with at bats every day or close to that.

 

If you call him up and play him at least 3 games a week, I am all for it. But if you call him up and only play him 1 game a week at this point? I'd rather he just stay in AAA, as painful as it would be to not have him for PH capabilities, I just think he needs to be getting at bats more than once a week.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

that makes sense.  we talk a lot about earning promotions in the system around here.  seeing what Arcia has done lately in AAA, does that warrant a promotion?  His 86 wRC+ so far this year in the majors along with horrible D warranted the demotion for an unproven player who still has options available for sure.

Well, he has an OPS of 1.030 in July and has hit 8 HR in 19 games. He's scuffled a bit over his past handful of games but that's hardly a reason to keep him down.

 

Also, that 86 wRC+ is only 65 PAs this season. Last season, it was 109. The previous season, 102.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think he would be an instant upgrade to Hunter now, but I still worry about his offensive game, he simply is striking out too much and not walking enough to take that next "step" to be a real asset for a team. He is still very young, which is why I think both areas can improve, the only way those improve are with at bats every day or close to that.

I think this has been really overblown on Twins Daily.

 

Yeah, Arcia strikes out a lot. That's who he is and that's who we knew he'd be coming out of the minors. It's a problem but it's not one he's going to fix in the minors because every time he goes down there, he just tees off on AAA pitching. I don't see him learning much down there because he's obviously too good for the competition.

 

As for his discipline, he has an entirely respectable .062 isoD in 853 MLB PAs. That's probably better than either Eddie Rosario or Danny Santana will post at the height of their careers given their swing-happy trajectory.

 

Oswaldo's plate discipline is just fine. I hope it improves but it's not devastating if it doesn't, provided he tears the cover off the ball when he manages to make contact.

[jimmer]

 

Well, he has an OPS of 1.030 in July and has hit 8 HR in 19 games. He's scuffled a bit over his past handful of games but that's hardly a reason to keep him down.

cool.  then let's implement your plan.

[DaveW]

 

 

 

As for his discipline, he has an entirely respectable .062 isoD in 853 PAs. That's probably better than either Eddie Rosario

Rosario can get away with it because he provides some really nice defensive value, and some speed as well. Arcia provides no defensive value, his only value is through his bat, which means if you are going to be a corner OF with no defensive value, your OPS+ each year needs to be in the 115-125 range IMO,if it's any lower, the team should be looking for an upgrade. Which is why I think he needs to continue to improve in order to be a long term asset for the Twins and not just a 1-2 season stop gap, the only way to improve is by getting reps every day.

[jimmer]

Or, Brock, instead of implementing your plan exactly, let's make a time machine, go back in time, and never sign Hunter to begin with (freeing up Arcia to play full time at his best OF position).

 

Nah, that doesn't work.  Without Hunter, the team wouldn't have known how to win and Hicks would still be a waste of a roster spot :-)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Rosario can get away with it because he provides some really nice defensive value, and some speed as well. Arcia provides no defensive value, his only value is through his bat, which means if you are going to be a corner OF with no defensive value, your OPS+ each year needs to be in the 115-125 range IMO,if it's any lower, the team should be looking for an upgrade. Which is why I think he needs to continue to improve in order to be a long term asset for the Twins and not just a 1-2 season stop gap, the only way to improve is by getting reps every day.

But, again, is he improving in Rochester? Arcia isn't walking down there, nor is he probably being selective, because he doesn't have to be.

 

It was a long time ago when AAA became nothing more than "see pitch, destroy pitch" to Oswaldo.

 

Here are his AAA OPS numbers.

 

2013: 1.020

2014: .962

2015: .769 after a horrendous start coming back from injury, 1.030 in July

 

That's not a guy who's going to learn anything in AAA, in my opinion. He could slam a bottle of Tequila an hour before the game and still probably go 2-4 with a single and homer.

 

If Oswaldo is going to improve, it's probably going to happen when he faces the best players in the world.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Or, Brock, instead of implementing your plan exactly, let's make a time machine, go back in time, and never sign Hunter to begin with (freeing up Arcia to play full time at his best OF position).

 

Nah, that doesn't work.  Without Hunter, the team wouldn't have known how to win and Hicks would still be a waste of a roster spot :-)

I didn't mind the Hunter signing because he was an insurance policy after two seasons of badly needing an insurance policy in the outfield.

 

The signing was fine, stubbornly refusing to play the youngsters in an attempt to improve in July is not.

[drjim]

 

Or, Brock, instead of implementing your plan exactly, let's make a time machine, go back in time, and never sign Hunter to begin with (freeing up Arcia to play full time at his best OF position).

 

Nah, that doesn't work.  Without Hunter, the team wouldn't have known how to win and Hicks would still be a waste of a roster spot :-)

 

Or the Twins would have have been trouble with Arcia's annual extended trip to the DL.

 

Unless you really like seeing Robinson and Escobar in the OF.

[jimmer]

 

I didn't mind the Hunter signing because he was an insurance policy after two seasons of badly needing an insurance policy in the outfield.

 

The signing was fine, stubbornly refusing to play the youngsters in an attempt to improve in July is not.

When I think of players as insurance policy players I think of them as low-cost (not 10M) backups (usually veterans).  I don't think of them as full time starters which is what he was signed to be and what he was for quite some time..

[jimmer]

 

Or the Twins would have have been trouble with Arcia's annual extended trip to the DL.

 

Unless you really like seeing Robinson and Escobar in the OF.

Those the only options a GM could have come up with?  If so, that's so sad.

[drjim]

 

Those the only options a GM could have come up with?  If so, that's so sad.

 

Agreed. Which is why they came up with Hunter.

[jimmer]

 

Agreed. Which is why they came up with Hunter.

No, I was including Hunter as one of the sad options. The options didn't have to be Robinson, Escobar or Hunter.  None of those had to be an OF option for us.  

 

And, BTW,nothing screams let's have a backup plan for a 24 year old player who has had some injuries like signing a guy about to turn 40.  I doubt that's why he was signed.  He wasn't signed to backup anyone

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No, I was including Hunter as one of the sad options. The options didn't have to be Robinson, Escobar or Hunter.  None of those had to be an OF option for us.  

 

And, BTW,nothing screams let's have a backup plan for a 24 year old player who has had some injuries like signing a guy about to turn 40.  I doubt that's why he was signed.  He wasn't signed to backup anyone

But if we rewind to February, this was the OF situation:

 

1. Hicks was horrible

2. Arcia couldn't stay on the field (and still can't)

3. Rosario was coming off a pedestrian season in AA

4. Buxton was coming back from injury (and is injured again)

5. Robinson (LOL)

 

That's five question marks and zero confidence. I can't fault Ryan for picking up an established vet on a one-year deal, even if they vastly overpaid for him.

 

And it's not like Hunter has been anything close to bad. He's currently at 1.2 WAR and is a part of the reason why the Twins are in Wild Card contention. Overall, it has worked out, though it's time to start considering a platoon role for Torii, if only to keep him fresh through September and hopefully October.

[jimmer]

Fact is he was signed.  But instead of this turning into a thread solely about people slamming a signing and others defending it (because I told an apparently not so funny joke and the defenders rose to Ryan's side), let's get back on point.  This lineup is obviously worse without Sano and this team is likely better off, now and in the future, to be playing Arcia more. Mostly at the expense of Hunter's playing time.

[HitInAPinch]

 

But, again, is he improving in Rochester? Arcia isn't walking down there, nor is he probably being selective, because he doesn't have to be.

 

It was a long time ago when AAA became nothing more than "see pitch, destroy pitch" to Oswaldo.

 

Here are his AAA OPS numbers.

 

2013: 1.020

2014: .962

2015: .769 after a horrendous start coming back from injury, 1.030 in July

 

That's not a guy who's going to learn anything in AAA, in my opinion. He could slam a bottle of Tequila an hour before the game and still probably go 2-4 with a single and homer.

 

If Oswaldo is going to improve, it's probably going to happen when he faces the best players in the world.

I tend to agree with you.  It could be as simple as what Sano said:  essentially, MiLB pitchers lack (strike zone) control where MLB pitchers have it.  Arcia is one of those guys that just don't look good in the outfield, but have the potential to out hit that problem.