Tyler Jay

[bird]

 

Since you asked.... I wish I was wrong, but... He's working out to be a future bullpen pitcher, but with velocity of only around 90-91 compared to Burdi and others,Duffey  only throws two quality pitches, K% has dropped to 18% in AAA, plus there's no room for him in the rotation, plus he has others soon passing him by.

 

 

Your wish will likely come through. A number of others disagree with you. The others are professional baseball people. I'm going with THEM.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What evidence is there that the Twins ever considered promoting Jay to MLB this season and using him in relief. Maybe I missed it.

On that same note, when will the Twins promote Burdi to MLB? He was another guy considered MLB-ready when drafted last year. The Twins have an urgent need and Burdi has now strung together some pretty good appearances.

 

Burdi hasn't been very good at all this year, and his string of good appearances (which ended yesterday I believe) is in A ball.  I doubt he's up this year. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Moderator note, let's cut out the bickering please.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Burdi was demoted? Heh, I actually missed that one. I'll um, just escort myself off this thread..

 

 

 

wait, is the joke on me or on everyone else?

 

so confused

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Burdi was demoted? Heh, I actually missed that one. I'll um, just escort myself off this thread..



wait, is the joke on me or on everyone else?

so confused

 

Unfortunately it's not.  He was getting shelled in AA to put it nicely.  He was sent back to FTM a couple weeks ago (I think, not quite sure on the timeline).  Burdi won't be in MLB this season.  While I suppose there was a shot at Jay being there (quite low shot I'd imagine as well), it was just that... a shot.  Jay will likely start out in FTM as a starter next year.  He's already got quite a few innings on his arm in his college role, so they are likely just using this time to add a few more innings and then convert him to a starter next spring.

[bird]

 

They have a very good pitching coach.  And many of us wholeheartedly congratulated Terry Ryan at the time of hire for landing Neal Allen, and giving him the major league opportunity- and in the process, acknowledging and correcting a major area of franchise underperformance that had clearly gone stale.

 

 I'm  not sure why you would choose to be snide in this instance.

 

 

I was finding humor in the whole notion that someone could declare that the Twins are the worst organization in all of baseball at selecting and developing pitching prospects. You recall that recent comment, which was based on maybe a half-dozen examples of prospects who are currently struggling. You concurred with the commenter, and gave your own example, some low-round guy named Tyler Jones, as evidence of this coaching incompetence.

 

You might recall I questioned this opinion, mentioning dozens of pitching prospects in the system who are performing well and asking you to explain their success in light of your steadfast belief that coaching is at fault for screwing up a handful of guys who are performing poorly. I didn't get an answer from you, my friend, just a response.

 

So, after 6.2 innings as a pro, now we have Tyler Jay. Have at it. Another example of coaching ineptitude here?

[Linus]

My guess is that he isn't starting because of the number of innings he has already pitched.  If they let him start, they would have to shut him down relatively soon.  this way, he can continue to pitch through the end of the season.

 

I'm surprised that people are worried about this right now.  Had to make sure I wasn't reading the comments section of the Strib.

[jokin]

 

Your wish will likely come through. A number of others disagree with you. The others are professional baseball people. I'm going with THEM.

 

And the professionals say that Duffey's likely MLB role will be as a middle reliever:

 

 

Two pitch pitcher that I see better suited for the bullpen where stuff has a chance to play up; tick up in fastball velocity while maintaining movement can make pitch effective in short bursts in the majors; curveball has enough to keep hitters at bay in a one inning role; the mentality and knowledge of craft leads me to believe the arm can pitch in some early leverage situations; see a middle reliever - first arm out of chute when starter leaves game earlier in a jam or bridge some outs until turning over to the late inning guys.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=173

 

He's really about as far from Burdi or Jay as a comp as is humanly possible.

[nicksaviking]

 

Nick Gordon was probably about as "safe" as a high school draftee can be.

 

I can't imagine a HS SS is ever a safe pick.  I'd guess they bust out at a rate just behind HS catchers and HS RHP.  Perhaps if they are an overall #1 type like A-Rod, but if you have a HS SS that profiles as the next superstar, I couldn't really fault a team for taking him.

 

For the record, I wasn't too excited about Gordon, I would have preferred a couple of pitchers as much or more.

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Unfortunately it's not.  He was getting shelled in AA to put it nicely.  He was sent back to FTM a couple weeks ago (I think, not quite sure on the timeline).  Burdi won't be in MLB this season.  While I suppose there was a shot at Jay being there (quite low shot I'd imagine as well), it was just that... a shot.  Jay will likely start out in FTM as a starter next year.  He's already got quite a few innings on his arm in his college role, so they are likely just using this time to add a few more innings and then convert him to a starter next spring.

Not a joke---you are right.

 

I'd like to see Burdi promoted back to AA now, while he's going good, and then evaluate again after another half dozen outings. Maybe he can help the Twins down the stretch? There's no rule that says he can't still be promoted to MLB quickly if it appears he suddenly and genuinely has made that step (all the normal caveats: I've never laid eyes on him, the Twins know more, etc)

[jokin]

 

I was finding humor in the whole notion that someone could declare that the Twins are the worst organization in all of baseball at selecting and developing pitching prospects. You recall that recent comment, which was based on maybe a half-dozen examples of prospects who are currently struggling. You concurred with the commenter, and gave your own example, some low-round guy named Tyler Jones, as evidence of this coaching incompetence.

 

So, after 6.2 innings as a pro, now we have Tyler Jay. Have at it. Another example of coaching ineptitude here?

 

I have defended the Twins FO on the pick of Tyler Jay, and I have defended how they are using him in his first year of development- even in this very thread. I really like the approach they've taken, stats in the first partial season are way, way down the list of priorities, learning what works and doesn't work is paramount.  His outstading pitching repertoire is entirely different from the prototype fear-inducing flamethrower.  Not at all germane to the subject I had commented on.

 

And I've never said anything close to what you said about "selecting and developing prospects." I did point out that the Twins have the lowest K/9 for the years 2004-2015, combined.  And also that K-rates usually drop precipitously as their hard-throwing prospects are on the cusps of MLB careers.

 

 

To further clarify on your first paragraph... well, my point in the "Next Twins Phenom" thread pertained specifically to flamethrowers, and why, if we're going to speculate on who might come up and take Twins nation by storm, they generally grade out as having the best potential from the current Twins prospect list to becoming phenoms. And then the whole historical set of facts of these types of guys, who eventually in the Twins system become more control/pitch to contact throwers or flaming out after being unable to evolve satisfactorily, plus the video evidence that Burdi's delivery had been radically changed from college and his first professional season. 

 

Tyler Jones came out of the draft, according to Deron Johnson-  "throws 97 MPH heat"... "we see him as having great potential for a late-inning relief role".  And his time with the Twins showed he was fulfilling that potential role on the strikeout side, pitching in mostly high leverage situations, but having some intermittent control problems along the way- as he did in High A in 2014-  BB/9 was at a career high of 4.1. The Twins ended up parting ways after that setback and as Thrylos reported, a weight issue- only to see the Atlanta Braves pick him up in Spring Training- and soon send him up to become their best pitcher statistically in AA.  

 

Combined stats this year for Jones, all at or near career-best numbers/averages-  

 

K/9 10.4 BB/9 2.6 ERA 1.18 WHIP 1.15.  

 

Compare those results this season with all of the hard-throwing guys the Twins chose to retain instead of Tyler Jones. (Again, don't bring in the guys who throw around 90-92, not germane).  Which leads to:

 

 

You might recall I questioned this opinion, mentioning dozens of pitching prospects in the system who are performing well and asking you to explain their success in light of your steadfast belief that coaching is at fault for screwing up a handful of guys who are performing poorly. I didn't get an answer from you, my friend, just a response.

 

Of course, the names you mentioned had nothing to do with the pitchers I mentioned.  It was an apples and oranges comparison by bringing up mostly lower-ceiling, but crafty, softer-tossing types into the mix. (Berrios is an obvious exception, but then, there was little need for the Twins to tinker with a guy who already had a smooth delivery and superior control)  And of course, you also singled out one name in particular, broaching the name of Ryan O'Rourke into the discussion of "next Twins phenoms"?  

 

Meanwhile, the guys I mentioned are high-velocity, double-digit K/9 pitchers who have had great success in the system and show signs of becoming potential phenoms, but have some control issues.-  necessitating the "tinkering" in question.

[bird]

 

And the professionals say that Duffey's likely MLB role will be as a middle reliever:

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=173

 

He's really about as far from Burdi or Jay as a comp as is humanly possible.

 

 

Good info, and Chris Mellen, the writer, may be right. But that report is over a year old, and Duffey has reportedly developed his arsenal and increased his velocity, and certainly his numbers are encouraging. Likewise, the pros suggesting Jay has what it takes to succeed as a starter may or may not be right. We'll see.

 

The point is, whether we're looking at a small sample of good numbers or bad numbers, declaring that Burdi hasn't worked out as a draft pick at this stage of things is nonsense, just like it was nonsense to criticize the Twins for burying him down in AA, as many did. Declaring that Jay is a bust based on facing a few dozen batters as a pro borders on stupid, just as criticising the Twins for not planning to get him to the majors in 2015 like KC did with Finnegan was misguided. And declaring that Duffey is destined to be a MLB starter or reliever is also premature. That was the comparison being made. Sorry to have been unclear.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I can't imagine a HS SS is ever a safe pick.

Like I said, a glove-first SS is about as "safe" as you can get for a HS pick.  Gordon certainly wasn't viewed as a boom-or-bust pick at the time.  Low ceiling, high floor.

 

Interestingly, Stewart, who was often viewed as boom-or-bust at the time given his age and experience, has performed more like a "safe" pick too.

[bird]

Let's get back to Tyler Jay. He's struggled. So have Burdi, Reed, Jones, Meyer, and a few others.

 

Is it coaching that's the problem? Is Tyler Jay more evidence that the Twins are bad at selecting and developing pitching prospects? Do we really think they don't know how to coach high velo guys? Do we really have solid evidence that a bunch of pitchers end up having lower velocity after entering the Twins' system? Are the Twins coaching the velocity out of these prospects as suggested?

 

Aren't Berrios, Chargois, Tonkin, Hu, Jorge, Rosario, Landa, Booser, and other high velo guys, and aren't most of them performing pretty well? Jokin, do you describe most of these guys as crafty, soft-tossing pitchers? Do you deny they are performing satisfactorily when healthy? 

 

I'm simply a skeptic regarding these notions. They are repeatedly expressed here and eventually seem to become accepted as fact. I don't trust it when someone uses a couple/few examples to promote a point of view while obtusely ignoring even more examples that refute the point.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Moderator note, let's cut out the bickering please.

 

PLEASE!!!

[jokin]

 

Good info, and Chris Mellen, the writer, may be right. But that report is over a year old, and Duffey has reportedly developed his arsenal and increased his velocity, and certainly his numbers are encouraging. Likewise, the pros suggesting Jay has what it takes to succeed as a starter may or may not be right. We'll see.

 

The point is, whether we're looking at a small sample of good numbers or bad numbers, declaring that Burdi hasn't worked out as a draft pick at this stage of things is nonsense, just like it was nonsense to criticize the Twins for burying him down in AA, as many did. Declaring that Jay is a bust based on facing a few dozen batters as a pro borders on stupid, just as criticising the Twins for not planning to get him to the majors in 2015 like KC did with Finnegan was misguided. And declaring that Duffey is destined to be a MLB starter or reliever is also premature. That was the comparison being made. Sorry to have been unclear.

 

But I haven't said anything about Burdi not working out, "for good".  Only that he has had a disastrous setback.  Guys like this tend to have a short shelf life, and you want them going forwards, not backwards. I don't know if you're referring to me, but I never criticized the Twins for burying Burdi in AA.  I did suggest that he should have started in High A with the intention of having him close out 2014 with a taste of AA to give him an indication of what he needed to focus on in the offseason.  And as I stated in the other thread, he would still be on the list for next Twins phenom. I still think he can get back on his AA bike this year and make a near-complete repair leading to potential phenom status,  just farther down the developmental time scale from where we were on Draft Day, 2014. And there's probably going to have be some kind of compromise on his delivery issues.

 

As I noted, Jay is right where he should be for now, and I expect him to be starting in AA at some point early in 2016. The Twins might have had some kind of outside contingency plan for Jay going the Finnegan route this year, there were some mixed messages on draft day, but I highly doubt they gave it much more than a 1% chance as a legit possibility.

 

Regarding Duffey, it would be very unusual for a guy who turns 25 this year to suddenly gain an uptick in velocity.  I'm guessing the praise he's receiving has been for better command and placement of his FB.  The biggest problem is with the third pitch.  The Twins have focused on the change, perhaps that has improved under the Twins new philosophy.  

 

But even if he has improved in these areas, the problem for Duffey to become a MLB SP remains, he's still going to be around #10 on the Starter depth chart next year, with guys parallel and underneath him breathing down his neck. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

And the professionals say that Duffey's likely MLB role will be as a middle reliever:

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=173

 

He's really about as far from Burdi or Jay as a comp as is humanly possible.

 

I would argue that if you can get a solid middle reliever out of the 5th round of the MLB Draft, that's a huge win. With Duffey, he could be a mid-to-late rotation guy, and could be now on most Twins starting staffs in recent years. He can be a back-of-the-rotation guy for most teams. If he surfaces in the Twins bullpen, that's not a bad thing at all.

 

 

[bird]

 

Clearly another wasted first round pick by Terry Ryan.

 

 

Wouldn't it be criminal if all Ryan could get out of a bad draft is another Perkins type? Bring back Bill Smith. He knew how to pick 'em. 

 

[jokin]

 

Let's get back to Tyler Jay. He's struggled. So have Burdi, Reed, Jones, Meyer, and a few others.

 

Is it coaching that's the problem? Is Tyler Jay more evidence that the Twins are bad at selecting and developing pitching prospects? Do we really think they don't know how to coach high velo guys? Do we really have solid evidence that a bunch of pitchers end up having lower velocity after entering the Twins' system? Are the Twins coaching the velocity out of these prospects as suggested?

 

Aren't Berrios, Chargois, Tonkin, Hu, Jorge, Rosario, Landa, Booser, and other high velo guys, and aren't most of them performing pretty well? Jokin, do you describe most of these guys as crafty, soft-tossing pitchers? Do you deny they are performing satisfactorily when healthy? 

 

I'm simply a skeptic regarding these notions. They are repeatedly expressed here and eventually seem to become accepted as fact. I don't trust it when someone uses a couple/few examples to promote a point of view while obtusely ignoring even more examples that refute the point.

 

I'm not being obtuse, when the point is refuted, I note it. And you keep talking about me in terms of somehow blaming Twins coaching for Jay's slow start.  Quite the opposite is true- I've supported everything that Twins management has done with him thus far.  I think he has an excellent chance to be a fast-track major leaguer,perhaps a legit rotation candidate in 2017. And the big exception among the flamethrowers I've already acknowledged:

 

I've previously noted that Berrios, with his smooth and mature-beyond-his-years delivery and supreme control, has required little tinkering.

 

The rest of your examples just aren't very good to serve as refutations: 

 

Chargois has had a very rough go physically, missing two years with arm problems.  In his first 16 games at AA after his promotion, his K/9 has plummeted and his BB/9 has soared.  But I still think he has a good shot to make the big club by mid-2017, let's see how he progresses at AA and AAA.

 

Tonkin appears to be close to becoming labeled AAAA.  His FB evidently doesn't have enough movement. His control has gotten progressively worse in his 3 MLB seasons, as has his FIP/xFIP.  And he really isn't the definition of a true hard thrower, his MLB FB has averaged 94 MPH. 

 

Hu hits 90-93 and his money pitch is a change-up/palmball/splitter.

 

 

 

His money pitch is a plus, perhaps double-plus change-up/splitter.  It’s the pitch that had Florida State League batters swinging and missing with regularity.

The potential warning sign for Hu is that the prospect landscape is littered with young pitchers who dominated the lower minors with a plus change-up, only to fail once they are promoted.  However, the splitting action that he gets on the change-up is really hard to pick-up and after seeing him live, I think it will play once promoted to Double-A.  When will that be?

 

The others are all performing in the lower levels- some, like Landa, who is throwing in the low 90s after surgery don't qualify. I haven't discussed anyone at these levels as examples, too soon in the process- time will tell how they develop.  I do like Jorge, but he too throws a 90-91 FB and the familiar pattern of falling K-rate and BB-rate is already taking place in A-ball.

[jokin]

 

I would argue that if you can get a solid middle reliever out of the 5th round of the MLB Draft, that's a huge win. With Duffey, he could be a mid-to-late rotation guy, and could be now on most Twins starting staffs in recent years. He can be a back-of-the-rotation guy for most teams. If he surfaces in the Twins bullpen, that's not a bad thing at all.

 

Who said it was? I actually think he has a good chance to be a solid middle reliever.