Alex Meyer - Virtually the same FIP

[jorgenswest]

Alex Meyer has now faced 201 batters. Some of the data should no longer be considered small in sample. Strike out rate, walk rate, groundball rate and fly ball rate are now at a large enough sample.

 

Strike out and walk rates can be considered.

 

His strike out rate has moved from 27.1% to 24.4%.

His walk rate has moved from11.3% to 12.9%.

 

Those are both changes in the wrong direction but the change isn't very significant to see a change in skill.

 

His groundball rate moved from 45.3% to 36.6%

 

This may be a significant change. His career rates tended to be higher than 45.3% of 2014. 

 

There are some numbers that are not near the sample to be considered  a result of skill. His ERA has gone from 3.53 to 6.28 while his FIP has moved from 3.51 to 3.55 (it was 3.70 as a starter). Virtually no change in FIP but catastrophic change in ERA. The ERA is fueled by a 100 point increase in BABIP at .420.

 

Without seeing him pitch in person daily, the only stats that have the sample to tell the story are slightly off last year's numbers. While I believe the move to the bullpen was important for him to regain belief in his pitching, I don't think it needs to be permanent. I wonder if the unusually high number of balls in play going for hits caused him to question his pitches and start making adjustments where they were not needed. I wonder the same thing about Strasburg who has a BABIP around .400. It has to mess with your mind.

[drivlikejehu]

The GB% is a red flag though. And just in general, Meyer's history of command and health issues is not the kind of thing that usually comes along with being a big league starter. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The GB% is a red flag though. And just in general, Meyer's history of command and health issues is not the kind of thing that usually comes along with being a big league starter.

 

There is neither a history of command issues or of health concerns. He was given precautionary rest for his shoulder two years ago. He had no command issues until about this time last season. That's it.

 

Maybe it got in his head seeing guys like Kris Johnson and Yohan Pino being promoted ahead of him. Who knows. It's all guessing. The Rochester bullpen is a good place for him right now. Or the big league bullpen.

[markos]

His strikeout rate prior to moving to the bullpen was 22%, which is significantly lower than his career norm. Since moving to the bullpen he has struck out 8 of the 15 batters he's faced. Maybe it is just regression back to his norm, or maybe his stuff plays up in the bullpen. Hard to say.

[drivlikejehu]

 

There is neither a history of command issues or of health concerns. He was given precautionary rest for his shoulder two years ago. He had no command issues until about this time last season. That's it.

Maybe it got in his head seeing guys like Kris Johnson and Yohan Pino being promoted ahead of him. Who knows. It's all guessing. The Rochester bullpen is a good place for him right now. Or the big league bullpen.

 

He hasn't had command at any time in his entire baseball career, going back to college. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

His BB/9 has never been microscopic, but it doesn't need to be. His command was fine until recently.

[markos]

 

There is neither a history of command issues or of health concerns. He was given precautionary rest for his shoulder two years ago. He had no command issues until about this time last season. That's it.

You are forgetting that he was also shut down at the end of last year (with a sore shoulder) and missed a September promotion. All told, he has missed 25% of the past two seasons due to shoulder issues. For me, that is a health concern. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

You are forgetting that he was also shut down at the end of last year (with a sore shoulder) and missed a September promotion. All told, he has missed 25% of the past two seasons due to shoulder issues. For me, that is a health concern.

 

That is also debatable. There are articles that actually report on that differently. Some say he stopped pitching because of his shoulder, and others say because of the innings limit. The bottom line for me is he had reached his innings limit and wasn't going to be pitching in September under any circumstances.

 

I give the Twins credit for keeping the guy healthy, actually. Another reason I think the bullpen move is good for him.

[drivlikejehu]

Meyer's walks don't tell the story. Against college and low minors opposition, he could just pipe fastballs down the middle and most batters couldn't hit it. Against better quality opposition, his lack of command has become more evident, and is not even close to MLB-starter caliber. He needs work just to get enough for big league bullpen work.

[zchrz]

Good to see him doing well in the pen, getting some confidence back.  I guess the real question is after a continued streak of success does he get moved back to the rotation or to the major league pen.  I think the best route would be to promote him as a reliever and let him get stretched out/ contend for a rotation spot next spring.

[drjim]

 

That is also debatable. There are articles that actually report on that differently. Some say he stopped pitching because of his shoulder, and others say because of the innings limit. The bottom line for me is he had reached his innings limit and wasn't going to be pitching in September under any circumstances.

I give the Twins credit for keeping the guy healthy, actually. Another reason I think the bullpen move is good for him.

 

He left his last minor league outing because of shoulder problems. He was slated to pitch out of the pen in September.

[drjim]

 

Meyer's walks don't tell the story. Against college and low minors opposition, he could just pipe fastballs down the middle and most batters couldn't hit it. Against better quality opposition, his lack of command has become more evident, and is not even close to MLB-starter caliber. He needs work just to get enough for big league bullpen work.

 

I agree with this except for the last sentence. He probably needs little work to be a bullpen weapon right now.

 

I fear that the Twins are trying to get his confidence back to get him back in the rotation, which is probably a mistake at this point.

[gunnarthor]

Klaw has said that FIP numbers for minor leaguers isn't very useful.

[ashbury]

Command isn't quite the same thing as control, and in my limited experience watching Meyer he hasn't put the ball consistently where he (surely) wants it. That may or may not translate into BB/9 numbers. I think that might account for people talking past one another on this.

[jokin]

 

He left his last minor league outing because of shoulder problems. He was slated to pitch out of the pen in September.

 

A link would be helpful to your case.

[gunnarthor]

 

A link would be helpful to your case.

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/08/31/twinsights-alex-meyer-dl-j-o-berrios-triple-rochester/

[jokin]

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/08/31/twinsights-alex-meyer-dl-j-o-berrios-triple-rochester/

 

 

 

Trevor May has been in touch with Alex Meyer, his teammate in the minors the past two seasons, and May can report at least some good news about his fellow prized pitching prospect for the Twins.

“He says there’s no pain (in his shoulder), so that’s good,” May said after Sunday’s loss to the Orioles. “He’s disappointed. It’s not the way you want to end, on that note. At the same time he’s glad there’s nothing structurally wrong with him. Just had a little trouble getting loose.”

 

 

Yep, not much of a case....

[Richie the Rally Goat]

There is neither a history of command issues or of health concerns. He was given precautionary rest for his shoulder two years ago. He had no command issues until about this time last season. That's it.

Maybe it got in his head seeing guys like Kris Johnson and Yohan Pino being promoted ahead of him. Who knows. It's all guessing. The Rochester bullpen is a good place for him right now. Or the big league bullpen.

precautionary after only pitching 78 innings? 5.2 Bb/9 in 2015 4.4 BB/9 in 2014, compared to 3.4 in 2012-13

[jokin]

 

precautionary after only pitching 78 innings? 5.2 Bb/9 in 2015 4.4 BB/9 in 2014, compared to 3.4 in 2012-13

 

 

But Hosken said:   "He had no command issues until about this time last season. That's it."  Through June 7, 2014-  Meyer's first 12 starts, his numbers in AAA are virtually identical to AA in 2013:

 

Meyer 2013  (AA):  K/9 10.80  BB/9  3.73 K%  28.1% BA .222 WHIP 1.27

Meyer 2014 (AAA): K/9 10.77  BB/9 4.02  K% 27.9%  BA .215 WHIP 1.26

 

The difference in BB/9 from 2013 to 2014 is 2 more walks over 63 IP.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm guessing the Twins are still high on Meyer so I would expect people to keep defending him when other people throw out stuff like "he blew out his shoulder last August." The story about Meyer seems to change depending on who you are talking to. The September bullpen story was probably Gardy lobbying through the press but like I said, who knows. Maybe that was actually the plan. My understanding was he was up against his pitch or inning limit, even though I admit that was probably more of a range than an exact number. Whatever, I'm glad he's doing well in the bullpen now.

[jokin]

 

I'm guessing the Twins are still high on Meyer so I would expect people to keep defending him when other people throw out stuff like "he blew out his shoulder last August." The story about Meyer seems to change depending on who you are talking to. The September bullpen story was probably Gardy lobbying through the press but like I said, who knows. Maybe that was actually the plan. My understanding was he was up against his pitch or inning limit, even though I admit that was probably more of a range than an exact number. Whatever, I'm glad he's doing well in the bullpen now.

 

I followed Rob Antony's quotes on the topic pretty closely last year, it was pretty apparent with the very strict pitch counts/innings limits,  that the prime objective was getting his 130 IP for the season and  440 pitches or so per month, and then shut him down.

 

I think he'll be back in the AAA rotation at some point,  although I'd prefer to see him finish out the 2nd half of the season in the Twins pen.- and then re-evaluate his plan for 2016.

[markos]

 

Yep, not much of a case....

I feel like it was pretty much assumed by everyone that he was getting a call-up until the shoulder issue happened. It was reported as such by Berardino and Bollinger.

 

 

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/107369412/twins-alex-meyer-ready-to-compete-for-major-league-rotation

 

 

All Alex Meyer had to do was get through one final start at Triple-A Rochester last season, and the Twins' No. 4 prospect (according to MLB.com) was finally going get to his chance to get called up to the Majors for the first time.

But it wasn't to be, as Meyer left his start early and was diagnosed with shoulder inflammation, which ended his season on Aug. 30. So while Meyer has tried not to harp on his missed opportunity to come up and pitch in relief down the stretch, the 6-foot-9 right-hander believes he's now primed to make an impact with the Twins in 2015.

 

[markos]

 

I followed Rob Antony's quotes on the topic pretty closely last year, it was pretty apparent with the very strict pitch counts/innings limits,  that the prime objective was getting his 130 IP for the season and  440 pitches or so per month, and then shut him down.

A link would be helpful to your case. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I feel like it was pretty much assumed by everyone that he was getting a call-up until the shoulder issue happened. It was reported as such by Berardino and Bollinger.

 

https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/506487121075773441

 

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/107369412/twins-alex-meyer-ready-to-compete-for-major-league-rotation

Even Ryan said there was nothing wrong with his shoulder! Instead of putting Meyer on the DL, couldn't they have just called him up anyway and given him some rest prior to his first appearance?

 

The plot thickens

[gunnarthor]

 

Yep, not much of a case....

I guess I might be missing something but the piece said that he was placed on the DL at the end of last season and that the Twins had hoped to use him as a reliever. 

 

Wasn't that the information you were requesting?

[drjim]

Nice, just enough ambiguity to allow any conclusion that you want, likely based on your underlying feeling about the front office in general.

 

I appreciate the links, that is what I remember.