What Splits Matter and Why?

[lightfoot789]

I recently researched Day and Night Game Splits (full season only) for Adam Brett Walker for his career.  Most would agree that his greatest flaw is contact rate and OBP.  Oddly enough - Walkers stats are as followed in Day Games:

63    Games

249  ABs

76    Hits

51    Runs

20    Doubles

01    Triple

15    HRs

66    RBI

16    BB

75    SO  (30%)

.347  OBP

.305  BA

 

Could it just be a matter of needing glasses for the glare of the evening lights?

 

His career stats for Night Games are as followed:

229   Games

218   Hits

131   Runs

38    Doubles

7     Triples

46    HR

161  RBI

70    BB

27% SO Rate

.303  OBP

.248  BA

 

Are Day and Night  Game Splits relevant when dissecting a prospects make up?

[jimbo92107]

In answer to your question, nuclear fission is the process of splitting the nucleus of a massive atom into two smaller ones, as a byproduct releasing energy. See Einstein, Albert.

 

Oh, you're talking about baseball? As Einstein said, that's more complicated.

[TRex]

I don't know why you would suggest that... is it the 0.050 difference in batting average?

 

I think people have (time and again) indicated that Walker's weakness was plate discipline (as interpreted statistically from W:SO and SO%). In the examples you give, Walker's W:SO rates are 16:75 for day games and 70:237 for night games^. It seems to me that he may need sunglasses for day games, as his W:SO rate is much worse (4.7x and 3.4x more SO for day and night, respectively). 

 

^:thanks for conveniently leaving off the AB and SO numbers for the night games and making me do the math myself... it may be the most strenuous thing my brain does today!

[markos]

I'm not certain if there are sample-size issues with your split, but it certainly is not unheard of for batters to have vision issues that prevent them from reaching their full potential. IIRC, Span took his game to another level after getting Lasik surgery. I would be curious to see Walker's OPS split. 

[lightfoot789]

2015

1.056 OPS Day

.784    OPS Night

 

2014

.871  OPS Day

.713  OPS Night

 

2013

.926  OPS Day

.818   OPS Night

[markos]

 

2015

1.056 OPS Day

.784    OPS Night

 

2014

.871  OPS Day

.713  OPS Night

 

2013

.926  OPS Day

.818   OPS Night

Thanks. It certainly feels like something meaningful rather than just small-sample randomness. That is a large OPS difference. 

[Seth Stohs]

I can't say that I have ever looked at Day-Night splits.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd be curious if there was a significant difference as a group as well.  That would be one of those interesting advantages that stats could bring a team... Say if it was as simple as using some sort of glasses/contacts to reduce a glare or other factor that might be contributing.

 

Problem as I see it is that this is done on one player.  If the same disparity happens from season to season league wide, then Walker is not an anomaly.  If league wide, day/night splits mean nothing, then there's something to be said for a possible approach to improving Walker. 

[lightfoot789]

 

I can't say that I have ever looked at Day-Night splits.

 

It does make sense though.  Doesn't it?

[gunnarthor]

I would be so thrilled if Walker's contact issues were simply a matter of glasses.

 

It's probably just random but the one theory on it I'd have is that Walker might be the kind of guy who's always ready to play and some players don't really like playing in the am or early afternoon.  I know several ML players have complained about playing day games.  -shrug-

 

 

[TRex]

 

I can't say that I have ever looked at Day-Night splits.

I know Danny Gladden has talked about the disparity in his own Day-Night splits, but I think we know the only glasses involved were of the drinking variety!

 

I don't think that is a contributing factor here, though!

[lightfoot789]

 

Walker

2015

1.056 OPS Day

.784    OPS Night

 

2014

.871  OPS Day

.713  OPS Night

 

2013

.926  OPS Day

.818   OPS Night

 

Harrison

2015

1.156  Day

.706    Night

 

2014

.858   Day

.697   Night

 

2013

.899   Day

.740   Night

 

Buxton

2015

.826   Day

.749   Night

 

2013 

1.109  Day

.860    Night

 

Kepler

2015

1.031  Day

.736    Night

 

2014

.845   Day

.699   Night

 

2013

.784   Day

.724   Night

 

Seems all of these guys have similar splits.  There goes the glasses theory

[diehardtwinsfan]

If you see the differences as a group, then perhaps there's some science in figuring out how to improve that OPS at night.  The team that figures that out would gain a pretty sizable advantage.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you see the differences as a group, then perhaps there's some science in figuring out how to improve that OPS at night.  The team that figures that out would gain a pretty sizable advantage.

I think if you see the difference as a group, and it's not just the result of a random distribution, that suggests there are factors out of your control that are influencing the split.

 

Just eyeballing a minor league schedule, it looks like day games are almost never the first game of a series.  So day games would have reduced travel effects, a huge deal in the minors with bus travel.  On a similar note, by the time those games roll around, there would be more familiarity with the ballpark/opposition/umpires, etc.  (Day games are also always the first game of doubleheaders, which are more frequent in the minor leagues.)

 

Umpiring might be different in day games vs night games too, especially with lower-quality umps under lower-quality lighting?

 

Also, day games are usually preceded by night games, so perhaps backup/part-time catchers play more often those days.  And backup/part-time catchers are probably worse at catching at lower levels, which can affect the pitching (umpiring too).  If they are often "getaway days" maybe that has an additional effect on manager decisions (less aggressive bullpen use, etc.).

 

Could still be random noise.  Just looking at the Chattanooga May 2015 schedule, their two Sunday games (which are most often day games) were won by scores of 14-13 and 16-3.  Results like that could have an outsize effect in small samples!  (And indeed day games represent ~20% of Walker's career AB, less than half of even home/road splits.)

[diehardtwinsfan]

You'd need to look at these numbers in MILB and MLB as a whole to see if there's a trend. That's where I would start.

 

I agree that there's issues out of your control, but there might be issues in your control, such as lighting/glare type things that perhaps special glasses/contacts could reduce. The stats simple tell us that something is there...

[Steven Buhr]

Does anyone who ever played ball at even the HS level not agree that it's easier to hit in daylight than under the lights? In my experience, it was simply much easier to pick up the ball without having to deal with shadows and to recognize the spin/pitch out of the pitcher's hand in daylight.

 

Maybe it's not as big a deal at the MLB level, where lighting is much better in those cathedral sized ballparks, but lack of night games is one of the things most often brought up when people compare the respective careers of the Ruthian era with the modern era hitters.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You'd need to look at these numbers in MILB and MLB as a whole to see if there's a trend. That's where I would start.

I agree that there's issues out of your control, but there might be issues in your control, such as lighting/glare type things that perhaps special glasses/contacts could reduce. The stats simple tell us that something is there...

There is no difference evident in total MLB day/night splits:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2014#stad

 

So I don't think this is anything but random variation and perhaps MiLB effects.

[70charger]

 

I think if you see the difference as a group, and it's not just the result of a random distribution, that suggests there are factors out of your control that are influencing the split.

 

Just eyeballing a minor league schedule, it looks like day games are almost never the first game of a series.  So day games would have reduced travel effects, a huge deal in the minors with bus travel.  On a similar note, by the time those games roll around, there would be more familiarity with the ballpark/opposition/umpires, etc.  (Day games are also always the first game of doubleheaders, which are more frequent in the minor leagues.)

 

Umpiring might be different in day games vs night games too, especially with lower-quality umps under lower-quality lighting?

 

Also, day games are usually preceded by night games, so perhaps backup/part-time catchers play more often those days.  And backup/part-time catchers are probably worse at catching at lower levels, which can affect the pitching (umpiring too).  If they are often "getaway days" maybe that has an additional effect on manager decisions (less aggressive bullpen use, etc.).

 

Could still be random noise.  Just looking at the Chattanooga May 2015 schedule, their two Sunday games (which are most often day games) were won by scores of 14-13 and 16-3.  Results like that could have an outsize effect in small samples!  (And indeed day games represent ~20% of Walker's career AB, less than half of even home/road splits.)

 

Nah. It's aliens.

 

(Seriously, though. Good and thorough analysis.)