International signing period thread

[jokin]

 

Kiley says, once again, the Twins will not be going over their allotment........

 

Who to believe, Kiley or Doogie?  Did Kiley allow for anything about potential deals in the works for bonus money to raise that allotment number?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Theo Epstein is in charge now, anything before him is pretty irrelevant by comparison, even stated in jest.

As a diehard Cubs fan, what the Cubs did for 100 years before has no bearing on how Theo Epstein and Company operate also helps that the Owner Ricketts has given carte blanche.  Their goal has been to find the best way of working the IFA and the Rule IV Draft to their advantage.  The Cubs went all in a couple years ago in IFA and are starting to reap the rewards even after being "handcuffed" by the IFA rules last year.  I look for them to push all the chips in again, if you're going to spend might as well spend and get what you want and the overage and penalties next season.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Who to believe, Kiley or Doogie?  Did Kiley allow for anything about potential deals in the works for bonus money to raise that allotment number?

Yeah, exactly, maybe Kiley meant they would not be going over their allotment, whatever that is after trading for a higher allotment. . .

[Bob Sacamento]

If I would have know, I would have asked Mike Ratcliff this weekend as he was at the GCL games in Ft. Myers timing the new draftees and young prospects.  He let me pick his brain on team building and drafting a little bit.  LOL, he asked me why I wanted to know about the young drafted players,  "Do you have a fantasy league or something?"

 

[Mike Sixel]

Dodgers will sign "every Cuban " and three teams will go over slot. The Twins can trade for a 50% increase, I think. There is a fangraph article up.

[d-mac]

 

Kiley says, once again, the Twins will not be going over their allotment........

 

Typical. 

[howieramone2]

Typical.

When you have the ability to sign a Sano, Polanco, and Kepler in one class, does it really matter?

[Mike Sixel]

 

When you have the ability to sign a Sano, Polanco, and Kepler in one class, does it really matter?

 

Yes......stopping what was a successful strategy of going big seems odd, doesn't it?

[TRex]

 

When you have the ability to sign a Sano, Polanco, and Kepler in one class, does it really matter?

Remember, we only got Sano because of the Pirates' shenanigans.

 

[drjim]

 

Remember, we only got Sano because of the Pirates' shenanigans.

 

And money. Lots of money.

[drjim]

 

Typical. 

 

I don't have a problem with them staying alive for next year's class and avoiding going against the deepest pockets this period.

 

By all accounts the Twins are going big on one prospect and taking some lesser guys. Heck, some guys on this board have called for this exact strategy and now that they are doing it they are complaining about something else. That is what is typical.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't have a problem with them staying alive for next year's class and avoiding going against the deepest pockets this period.

 

By all accounts the Twins are going big on one prospect and taking some lesser guys. Heck, some guys on this board have called for this exact strategy and now that they are doing it they are complaining about something else. That is what is typical.

 

Only 3-4 teams are likely to go over this year.....who would they be competing against? Also, if next year is the last year these are the rules, won't they be competing against like 20 teams that might go over?

 

And, who is calling for the strategy that they are following, that is also complaining about them following it?

[drjim]

 

Only 3-4 teams are likely to go over this year.....who would they be competing against? Also, if next year is the last year these are the rules, won't they be competing against like 20 teams that might go over?

 

And, who is calling for the strategy that they are following, that is also complaining about them following it?

 

I don't understand the first questions in your first paragraph. Yes, there will be about 20 teams next year, but they won't include all of the biggest market teams so it will be more of an even playing field. Interesting to see if they take advantage that year. Atlanta and Philly are the two rumored to go big, Twins could possibly hang with them.

 

No thank you for the second paragraph.

[nytwinsfan]

Baseball Prospectus take on Javier:

 

6. Wander Javier, SS, Dominican Republic
Javier might be the most “controversial” prospect eligible to sign July 2nd, with more than one scout I spoke with believing he was the best all-around player in the class, and a few believing he didn’t belong in the top 10.

 

At the plate, Javier has plus bat speed and when he makes contact the ball explodes off of the bat, but there are serious balance issues here, and the length of his swing adds a good deal of swing-and-miss. He’s also less likely to stick at shortstop than Fox, though he does have a chance to stay there thanks to a strong throwing arm and above-average athleticism. There’s a lot of risk here, but there’s also a chance for three 60 tools when everything is said and done.

[Mike Sixel]

If 20 teams decide to spend whatever they want......how will the Twins outspend the field, and sign more than 1 "elite" talent? I'm not sure how to make that more clear. There are maybe 10-20 "elite" guys a year, if 20 teams are going all in, each team is getting 1.

 

You are the one that brought up the 2nd paragraph, not me.

[dbminn]

 

And money. Lots of money.

 

 

Remember, we only got Sano because of the Pirates' shenanigans.

 

We got Sano for two reasons: The Pirates' failure and Joe Mauer, Sano's favorite player.

[d-mac]

 

When you have the ability to sign a Sano, Polanco, and Kepler in one class, does it really matter?

 

Remember, that was before international bonuses were limited. Due to the Twins' unwillingness to go over the limit, this would assuredly never happen today. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

If 20 teams decide to spend whatever they want......how will the Twins outspend the field, and sign more than 1 "elite" talent? I'm not sure how to make that more clear. There are maybe 10-20 "elite" guys a year, if 20 teams are going all in, each team is getting 1.

 

You are the one that brought up the 2nd paragraph, not me.

 

I asked Kiley a similar question today....In addition to the snark, he said he expects there to be a penalty even when they re-do the CBA, and that it won't be 20 teams going over next year either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't understand the first questions in your first paragraph. Yes, there will be about 20 teams next year, but they won't include all of the biggest market teams so it will be more of an even playing field. Interesting to see if they take advantage that year. Atlanta and Philly are the two rumored to go big, Twins could possibly hang with them.

Not sure if market size will really matter in this context.  The Yankees went completely crazy in their international spending last year, and I think still came in under $30 mil after tax.  Every team in baseball is capable of doing that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, if the Twins go over next year, I don't think they will be free of penalties under a new system.

[Pitz]

 

Baseball Prospectus take on Javier:

 

6. Wander Javier, SS, Dominican Republic
Javier might be the most “controversial” prospect eligible to sign July 2nd, with more than one scout I spoke with believing he was the best all-around player in the class, and a few believing he didn’t belong in the top 10.

 

At the plate, Javier has plus bat speed and when he makes contact the ball explodes off of the bat, but there are serious balance issues here, and the length of his swing adds a good deal of swing-and-miss. He’s also less likely to stick at shortstop than Fox, though he does have a chance to stay there thanks to a strong throwing arm and above-average athleticism. There’s a lot of risk here, but there’s also a chance for three 60 tools when everything is said and done.

 

Thanks for that. Interesting report. Don't mind the high risk/high reward, but it's interesting that the reported agreement is $4 million - which seems a bit high compared to non-Cuban deals. Seems like either another team(s) thought he was worth the investment driving the price up, or perhaps the Twins have a 'package deal' as discussed by McDaniel here.  The whole international signing seems like quite a corrupted mess as McDaniel describes it.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Also, if the Twins go over next year, I don't think they will be free of penalties under a new system.

This is a good point. Everyone seems to assume going over next year won't matter because there will be a draft or new system, but as far as I know, there is nothing that keeps MLB from carrying over penalties, even if they need to take a new, equally or more severe form. But maybe someone who knows more about the CBA process could say more. Jeremy???

[howieramone2]

 

Remember, that was before international bonuses were limited. Due to the Twins' unwillingness to go over the limit, this would assuredly never happen today. 

Once may be enough.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

Thanks for that. Interesting report. Don't mind the high risk/high reward, but it's interesting that the reported agreement is $4 million - which seems a bit high compared to non-Cuban deals. Seems like either another team(s) thought he was worth the investment driving the price up, or perhaps the Twins have a 'package deal' as discussed by McDaniel here.  The whole international signing seems like quite a corrupted mess as McDaniel describes it.

Or as a team not going over the cap maybe they needed to make a strong starting offer in order to get him to commit early and avoid the Dodgers or Cubs coming in over the top while he considered the Twins offer. That would be my guess.

[Pitz]

 

Or as a team not going over the cap maybe they needed to make a strong starting offer in order to get him to commit early and avoid the Dodgers or Cubs coming in over the top while he considered the Twins offer. That would be my guess.

 

Also a possibility, but in comparing him to other projected deals on McDaniel's sortable chart, I would expect the players around him to get similar deals in order to prevent the same such Dodgers or Cubs scenario. For example, Andres Gimenez, a Venezuelan SS ranked right behind Javier by McDaniel is projected to sign for $1.25 million with the Mets. I know its much more complicated than all this, but wouldn't the Mets have similar concerns about the Cubs/Dodgers?

[d-mac]

 

Once may be enough.

 

Or may not make a difference. No team is omnipotent when it comes to predicting which player (especially at 16) will make it in the majors. It's a numbers game. The more talent you can acquire, the better. Always. One player won't make a team. 

[drjim]

 

If 20 teams decide to spend whatever they want......how will the Twins outspend the field, and sign more than 1 "elite" talent? I'm not sure how to make that more clear. There are maybe 10-20 "elite" guys a year, if 20 teams are going all in, each team is getting 1.

 

You are the one that brought up the 2nd paragraph, not me.

 

Because 20 teams will not decide to spend what they want (possibly/probably including the Twins). The franchises most likely to do so are all cleared out of next signing period, creating the opportunity.

 

As said, it will result in penalties, but there will be much less competition.

 

And not all teams can pay $30 million for amateur talent.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And not all teams can pay $30 million for amateur talent.

Yes, all teams can.  Most teams have already dropped $10+ mil on one amateur talent, and some have spent much, much more than that.

 

I think they could all afford $30 mil for 10 of the top 30 guys in a given signing period, like the Yankees just did.  (Actually the Yankees tried to spend $80 mil, but Moncada declined their offer and signed with Boston.)

They don't necessarily have to spend that much in this market, because of the restrictions in place and because some of these guys are real crapshoots, but they could all afford it.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Because 20 teams will not decide to spend what they want (possibly/probably including the Twins). The franchises most likely to do so are all cleared out of next signing period, creating the opportunity.

 

As said, it will result in penalties, but there will be much less competition.

 

And not all teams can pay $30 million for amateur talent.

It's not just affording the 30M for amateur talent, it's also paying the 30M in penalties.  ie what happened with the BoSox signing Moncada.  So not only paying the player but paying the league for your gamble on a 19yo Cuban.

 

Yes, all teams can.  Most teams have already dropped $10+ mil on one amateur talent, and some have spent much, much more than that.

 

I think they could all afford $30 mil for 10 of the top 30 guys in a given signing period, like the Yankees just did.  (Actually the Yankees tried to spend $80 mil, but Moncada declined their offer and signed with Boston.)

They don't necessarily have to spend that much in this market, because of the restrictions in place and because some of these guys are real crapshoots, but they could all afford it.

Most 16yo are crapshoots but this is where you really have to believe in your scouting department to find and evaluate these kids.  My biggest grip with the Twins is that they still seem to be scouting/evaluating by the "old school" method - basically the eye test with help from a stopwatch and a radar gun, there is no Trackman or advanced diagnostics that they do unlike many ballclubs now-a-days.  Baltimore has an amazing system where they track everything from a pitchers' spinrate to the terminal velocity off the bat etc...

[Mike Sixel]

I already acknowledged some of this after my post......