Schoenfield releases his 2015 rankings predictions for 30-25.

[jimmer]

Twins are 27th, and last in the AL.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/54964/ranking-the-teams-30-through-25-2

 

'Torii Hunter and Oswaldo Arcia are penciled in as two starting outfielders, two guys who would have trouble covering enough ground in a beer league softball outfield. Hunter had minus-18 defensive runs saved and Arcia minus-10 (in about half a season of playing time). The Twins ranked as the second-worst defensive team in the majors via defensive runs saved in 2014 and that's going to be a big issue again.'

[twinsajsf]

The outfield defense is definitely a HUGE concern, so he's got that right, but the rest doesn't make a lot of sense.  It's possible Santana could regress from 3.95 going from NL at AL (esp. with the outfield defense), BUT his peripherals (FIP) suggest that he pitched a lot better than 3.95 last year, so it's reasonable to think that the change could be a wash or that he might even improve slightly.  Even if he's slightly worse, say a shade over 4, that replaces 30+ starts of 5.5+ last year.  Personally, I think a LOT hinges on Nolasco and his ability to also go from 5.5+ ERA to somewhere in the low 4's, which would at least make him .500

 

He also cites the probable Santana regression as the reason the offense will  be worse, ignoring his own assertion that Mauer would likely be better, and the fact that if Hunter can equal last season's production, that will be a HUGE upgrade over the combined futility at one OF position (LF) last year. Like Nolasco on the pitching side, I think a LOT hinges on Arcia's improvement on the offensive side.

[jimmer]

I think what he's written makes quite a bit of sense. I don't think he's saying, at all, that it's just Santana's regression that will hurt the offense.  He's just the main example. I don't expect them to be good at all.  I'd be happy if we managed 75 wins.

[jokin]

Well... that's a reality check from an outsider.  But... 68-94?  Really?

 

He makes a good argument about both Santanas being destined for negative regression, but barring multiple year over year collapses by key players, it's hard to see this team winning less games than last year.  He must be convinced that the rest of the Central has all improved more in the offseason than the Twins.

[jimmer]

Well... that's a reality check from an outsider.  But... 68-94?  Really?

 

He makes a good argument about both Santana's destined for negative regression, but barring multiple year over year collapses by key players, it's hard to see this team winning less games than last year.  He must be convinced that the rest of the Central has all improved more in the offseason than the Twins.

ZIPs also projects us to have the 27th best record in baseball.

[jokin]

I think what he's written makes quite a bit of sense. I don't think he's saying, at all, that it's just Santana's regression that will hurt the offense.  he's just one example. I don't expect them to be good at all.  I'd be happy if we managed 75 wins.

 

I'm waiting to make my net win prediction, based on who is on the opening day roster, if it's more of the same scholly hijinks as the previous years, than less than 70 is a possibility, but if there are some fresh faces on the pitching staff (Burdi, Meyer, other sundry breakout surprise RPs ,could make a huge difference), plus, Pinto, Arcia, Vargas, Buxton and Sano all have significant contributions at some point during the season, mid-to-upper 70 wins is possible. 

 

No one else is talking about it, but I can still envision Torii Hunter ending up primarily DHing and replaced in the OF by some combo of Buxton/Rosario/Plouffe/Mauer/Arcia.

[Willihammer]

I think people need to take another look at Santana's minor league stats. He has been very stead since 2012.

 

I expect him to regress but the landing could be soft. Something in the .725-.750 range seems reasonable to me.

[JB_Iowa]

There is no predictability with this team -- and no use worrying about it.

 

Too many young guys who could regress or who could be on an upward learning curve.  Too many guys who may have been injured who may - or may not - show improvement.  Too many older guys who may - or may not regress (in a bad way).

 

Que Sera Sera ,,,,

 

Just enjoy it.

[jimmer]

Santana had the highest BABIP since Carew in 1977 for a player with 400 or more PAs.  Even if it drops down to .330-.340 BABIP (still well above average), it's a huge drop.

[jokin]

ZIPs also projects us to have the 27th best record in baseball.

 

The Twins were 36-40 against the AL Central.  A 4 game drop could knock the Twins below 70 wins.

The other big factor that ZiPS might be looking at is the fact the Twins play the NL Central this year, which has arguably become the best division in baseball.

 

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2015/01/17/national-league-central-division/21937647/

[jimmer]

The Twins were 36-40 against the AL Central.  A 4 game drop could knock the Twins below 70 wins.

The other big factor that ZiPS might be looking at is the fact the Twins play the NL Central this year, which has arguably become the best division in baseball.

I'd have the AL West as the clear best division, but yeah.  The NL Central should be interesting.  I'm going to either the Houston series or the Cubs series this year.

[jokin]

I'd have the AL West as the clear best division, but yeah.  The NL Central should be interesting.  I'm going to either the Houston series or the Cubs series this year.

 

Top to bottom?  Arizona is a mess, and Houston might still be a year away.

 

I agree, though.... Both the Stros and Cubs are on my list of series to attend this year.

[jimmer]

Top to bottom?  Arizona is a mess, and Houston might still be a year away.

 

I agree, though.... Both the Stros and Cubs are on my list of series to attend this year.

Well, Arizona isn't in the AL West :-)

 

...and the Rangers had so many bloody injuries I'm not surprised how bad they were last year, but I expect rebound of sorts.

 

The NL Central has it's issues too though. 

[jokin]

Well, Arizona isn't in the AL West :-)

 

...and the Rangers had so many bloody injuries I'm not surprised how bad they were last year, but I expect rebound of sorts.

 

The NL Central has it's issues too though. 

 

Sorry, distracted posting. I like the NL West too (and when I'm not paying close enough attention, the Astros are still in the NL. )

 

But the Rangers (picked 25th  by Schoenfeld w/ 71 wins?) and A's look to be destined for down years, and as I said, before, Houston is improved, but still is possibly a year away. 

 

I do like the NL Central a lot, particularly on a top to bottom basis- another dogfight seems likely, especially if Cincy gets their act back together.. With the Cubs now showing a lot more than a faint pulse, none of those games against that division will be gimmes.

[jimmer]

I think the Brewers and Reds are gonna crash and burn. The other three, yeah, that should be fun to watch.

[gunnarthor]

I'm less concerned about Hunter's defense than most.  If the Twins can stay healthy this year, I think they have a shot at .500 or so.  And they won't be worse than the Astros for sure.  

[jimmer]

Sorry, distracted posting. I like the NL West too (and when I'm not paying close enough attention, the Astros are still in the NL. )

 

But the Rangers (picked 25th  by Schoenfeld w/ 71 wins?) and A's look to be destined for down years, and as I said, before, Houston is improved, but still is possibly a year away. 

 

I do like the NL Central a lot, particularly on a top to bottom basis- another dogfight seems likely, especially if Cincy gets their act back together.. With the Cubs now showing a lot more than a faint pulse, none of those games against that division will be gimmes.

Yeah, Houston may end up with a worse record than us, just based on the division competition they'll be facing, but I'm not even sure they'll do that. I think, right now, the Astros are better than we are.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, Houston may end up with a worse record than us, just based on the division competition they'll be facing, but I'm not even sure they'll do that. I think, right now, the Astros are better than we are.

Honestly, based on what?  I mean the Twins get ripped for bad defense but Houston was a lot worse.  A lot worse.  And now they are going to have Brett Lawrie play short?  And Luis Valbuena play third?  They have three huge regression guys in Altuve, McHugh and Keuchel.  Altuve might be a real solid piece but he's not having another 6 WAR season.  The other two guys were journeyman pitchers having career years.  (Amazingly, the Twins pitchers amassed more WAR than the Astros guys last year, despite those two huge years).  Frankly, I'd rather go with the Twins pitching staff this year than Houston's.  

 

They'll hit a lot home runs but they'll have an insanely low team OBP and could break the ML record for strikeouts (again).  For a team with a bunch of crappy seasons, they don't have that much in the minors, esp in the upper levels.   

[Secondary User]

Santana had the highest BABIP since Carew in 1977 for a player with 400 or more PAs.  Even if it drops down to .330-.340 BABIP (still well above average), it's a huge drop.

 

Santana's K% was also higher than his numbers over the last couple years suggest it should be (off the top of my head, I want to say a 5% increase), so some improvement there could be expected as well to offset some of that BABIP

[diehardtwinsfan]

27 seems pretty low.  I'd think they'd be more in the 15-20 range, and I think .500 is pretty reasonable FWIW.  Problem with these rankings as most just assume more of the same.  Lots of people picked the 2011 Twins to win the division.  We all know how that happened.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well... that's a reality check from an outsider.  But... 68-94?  Really?

I don't see how anyone could predict this team to actually move backward.

 

Hell, they won 70 last season and underperformed their pythag by several games.

 

Short of literally everything going wrong in 2015, they won't be worse.

[jokin]

I don't see how anyone could predict this team to actually move backward.

 

Hell, they won 70 last season and underperformed their pythag by several games.

 

Short of literally everything going wrong in 2015, they won't be worse.

 

Yup,  I think most of us, closer and more familiar with the Twins' situation, will be genuinely stunned if they go backwards to this extent.  For instance, Schoenfeld justifiably criticizes the current projected OF defense as one of his key reasons for such a bad forecast- I highly doubt that Molitor and Ryan will refrain from making necessary personnel and positional adjustments if it becomes obvious that Arcia/Hunter/TBD CF are at Klown Kar performance levels.

[h2oface]

Yeah........ but HOW ABOUT THAT FARM SYSTEM!!!!   This projection projects another top pick. That is another feather for Terry Ryan's hat.

[Old Twins Cap]

It's pretty easy to beat up on Arcia and Hunter for defense, then look at the kid Santana and say "no way is he that good" thus giving the Twins a ticket to AL basement. 

 

But, you know what:  I'll take that.  I like the swagger in Arcia and the moxie in Hunter, and I couldn't believe Santana was that good either, so I will enjoy being an underdog this year.  And embrace it.

 

You gotta earn your way in MLB and this is a year, the first in five, in which the Twins have something to hope for.  Bring it on. 

 

Can it get any worse then it's been?

[bird]

Bah. Schoenfield Schmoenfield. There's a reason they play the games.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yup,  I think most of us, closer and more familiar with the Twins' situation, will be genuinely stunned if they go backwards to this extent.  For instance, Schoenfeld justifiably criticizes the current projected OF defense as one of his key reasons for such a bad forecast- I highly doubt that Molitor and Ryan will refrain from making necessary personnel and positional adjustments if it becomes obvious that Arcia/Hunter/TBD CF are at Klown Kar performance levels.

More importantly, it doesn't mean they'll regress in 2015. For crying out loud, their 2014 corner outfielders were laughably bad and they had a shortstop in center.

 

You can say "they'll stay bad" at that point but you can't actually predict regression because it's really hard to regress from "OMG terrible".

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah........ but HOW ABOUT THAT FARM SYSTEM!!!!   This projection projects another top pick. That is another feather for Terry Ryan's hat.

Maybe we should let them play the games before passing judgment.

[jokin]

Yeah........ but HOW ABOUT THAT FARM SYSTEM!!!!   This projection projects another top pick. That is another feather for Terry Ryan's hat.

 

If they end up with a 5 year streak with losses in the 90s- and getting around the 4th pick- and having the worst team in the AL- as Schoenfeld suggests here, heads will have to roll.

 

 I'm not as optimistic as some are here, but this seems unrealistically negative.  His Rangers prediction seems too negative, as well.  It makes me wonder how his predictions worked out last year???

[jokin]

More importantly, it doesn't mean they'll regress in 2015. For crying out loud, their 2014 corner outfielders were laughably bad and they had a shortstop in center.

 

You can say "they'll stay bad" at that point but you can't actually predict regression because it's really hard to regress from "OMG terrible".

 

And he expects Dozier and Plouffe's numbers to collapse, as well.  Sure, some guys are bound to do worse-  Santana, Suzuki, Vargas, Shafer and maybe Escobar, are prime candidates in that category- but many others are just as likely to either stay the same, continue to improve or positively regress-  Mauer, obviously for the latter reason, Dozier and Plouffe could easily produce similar numbers to 2014, and Pinto, Arcia, and even Hicks, might go gangbusters.... plus who knows which rookies make an immediate impact?

[Brock Beauchamp]

And he expects Dozier and Plouffe's numbers to collapse, as well. 

That's enough for me to call the analysis lazy.

 

Plouffe, maybe... But Dozier has been the same player for over 1,100 PAs. Breaking up his numbers by season is so incredibly lazy and inaccurate.

 

Yeah, he might regress... by .030 OPS points. There is literally nothing to indicate he will return to a sub-.700 OPS player. NOTHING.