Sickels releases his Twins Top 20

[Seth Stohs]

The thing about Salcedo is despite being a minor league free agent (and staying with the Twins), he is still very young... he's still a tremendous athlete. He still throws hard. I think he's still got a chance.

[jokin]

The thing about Salcedo is despite being a minor league free agent (and staying with the Twins), he is still very young... he's still a tremendous athlete. He still throws hard. I think he's still got a chance.

 

Thanks for your take, Seth.  Still only 23.  Could you contrast your lowered opinion of him- relative to Sickels still thinking he deserves a mention in his prospect write-up?  Obviously the Twins still like him since he was re-signed, has anyone spoken off the record to you about him?  Seems like a lot of good results to celebrate, results that look like they can translate to the MLB level, especially with Salcedo facing career-oblivion only 2 years ago.  Any idea where he is assigned, and what role he might have in 2015?  

 

And what about a college arm guy like Cole Johnson?  Definitely older and thus, much less intriguing, but he was another with an under-the-radar, really-good-year, in New Britain.  Consider these stats and Eastern League rankings for pitchers with 70+ IP (and in more high-leverage opportunities than Salcedo):

 

FIP       2.97  5th

SIERA  3.00 1st

K%       26.4%  2nd

AB/K     3.45    2nd

Ksw%  19.9%  5th

K/9      10.16   2nd

K/BB    3.90    9th

[TRex]

In regards to Adrian Salcedo...

 

I know we can play the 'selective analysis' game for everyone, but it is even more important for relievers.

 

Salcedo had one terrible outing in April (6 ER, 1/3 inning) and another in May (5 ER, 1 1/3 innings). From May 29 through the end of the season, he only gave up 12 ER in 47 innings (2.30 ERA) with only 39 hits and a 14:41 W:SO ratio. During that stretch he was also splitting time between starter (6G) and reliever (15G). Oh, and by the way, his BABIP of .357 was second highest in the EL with pitchers over 60 innings (below fellow Twins farmhand Sean Gilmartin).

 

I say make an honest man out of him and put him on the 40-man roster!

[jokin]

In regards to Adrian Salcedo...

 

I know we can play the 'selective analysis' game for everyone, but it is even more important for relievers.

 

Salcedo had one terrible outing in April (6 ER, 1/3 inning) and another in May (5 ER, 1 1/3 innings). From May 29 through the end of the season, he only gave up 12 ER in 47 innings (2.30 ERA) with only 39 hits and a 14:41 W:SO ratio. During that stretch he was also splitting time between starter (6G) and reliever (15G). Oh, and by the way, his BABIP of .357 was second highest in the EL with pitchers over 60 innings (below fellow Twins farmhand Sean Gilmartin).

 

I say make an honest man out of him and put him on the 40-man roster!

 

Yep, thanks for the extra depth of info, ofttimes RPs get buried from our consciousness early-on from one or two bad outings.  I noted his "bad luck" stats in my long run-down previously (the Minorleaguecentral numbers are slightly different from Fangraphs)

 

BABIP  .360  2nd highest

LOB     64.1%  12th lowest

 

And he had a number of stat results that matched or beat Gilmartin and Rogers.  I highly doubt that he would be susceptible to being taken in the Rule 5 draft, and I'm sure they will protect him in the AAA Rule 5 draft, if at all possible, but still, many will remember his previous highly regarded status, plus, it seems like the stats like- lowest hard-hit balls, and the extraordinary swinging strike-out rate, would attract at least some outside attention.  

 

I don't know if he'll get a ST invite- I hope Sickels is really on to something for keeping the faith when all others have seemingly moved on, but another good year in AAA, with some better luck, and the Twins thought process on Salcedo and his prospect status might change quite a bit.

[Linus]

You could very well be right, but Santana is still a big question mark at SS, and Escobar is already the epitome of the "very valuable utility player," with not much upside remaining at the specific position.  Plus Santana has a high hurdle to overcome to convince  that his 2014 plate production wasn't a fluke.

 

I think we have to face the fact that each has specific areas of weakness or question marks... the jury is likely to remain out on any of the 4 as the odds-on favorite. As of right now, it's Santana's to lose.  If he seizes his opportunity, then great.  If Santana stumbles at the position, or fails to hit, or both, it opens up the opportunity for Polanco.  

 

IMO, Polanco is so extremely talented, particularly at the plate, that it makes it way too soon for the Twins to already be thinking of this 21-year old as merely a utility player. Plus his largest trade value comes about with the perception that he has the chops to play at SS, even if he isn't among the defensive elite. By comparison, guys who should be looked at to fill potential future utility roles are Michael, Beresford and Goodrum.

Polanco's cup of coffee was strictly based on 40 man considerations, not that he was the best player available at that time.  TR was quite blunt that he thought Polanco struggled this year at the plate and in the field so some sort of acceleration to the bigs is not likely.  From all reports that I've read, he's a second baseman trying to become adequate at SS.  Dozier's experience is telling in that being a good defensive big league shortstop is much harder than playing any other position on the field.

[Otto von Ballpark]

For fun, comparing past Sickels lists to the 2015 one

 

A- or better:

2009: 0

2010: 0

2011: 0

2012: 0

2013: 1

2014: 2

2015: 2

 

B+ or better

2009: 2

2010: 1

2011: 3

2012: 1

2013: 6

2014: 4

2015: 5

 

B or better

2009: 4

2010: 2

2011: 7

2012: 4

2013: 9

2014: 6

2015: 6

 

B- or better

2009: 9

2010: 6

2011: 10

2012: 13

2013: 13

2014: 11

2015: 14

 

C+ or better

2009: 21

2010: 18

2011: 22

2012: 24

2013: 23

2014: 24

2015: 24

[jokin]

For fun, comparing past Sickels lists to the 2015 one

 

A- or better:

2009: 0

2010: 0

2011: 0

2012: 0

2013: 1

2014: 2

2015: 2

 

B+ or better

2009: 2

2010: 1

2011: 3

2012: 1

2013: 6

2014: 4

2015: 5

 

B or better

2009: 4

2010: 2

2011: 7

2012: 4

2013: 9

2014: 6

2015: 6

 

B- or better

2009: 9

2010: 6

2011: 10

2012: 13

2013: 13

2014: 11

2015: 14

 

C+ or better

2009: 21

2010: 18

2011: 22

2012: 24

2013: 23

2014: 24

2015: 24

 

Grade inflation?

[big dog]

For fun, comparing past Sickels lists to the 2015 one

 

A- or better:

2009: 0

2010: 0

2011: 0

2012: 0

2013: 1

2014: 2

2015: 2

 

B+ or better

2009: 2

2010: 1

2011: 3

2012: 1

2013: 6

2014: 4

2015: 5

 

B or better

2009: 4

2010: 2

2011: 7

2012: 4

2013: 9

2014: 6

2015: 6

 

B- or better

2009: 9

2010: 6

2011: 10

2012: 13

2013: 13

2014: 11

2015: 14

 

C+ or better

2009: 21

2010: 18

2011: 22

2012: 24

2013: 23

2014: 24

2015: 24

You're right, that WAS fun.  Very nice to see.

[Seth Stohs]

Thanks for your take, Seth.  Still only 23.  Could you contrast your lowered opinion of him- relative to Sickels still thinking he deserves a mention in his prospect write-up?  Obviously the Twins still like him since he was re-signed, has anyone spoken off the record to you about him?  Seems like a lot of good results to celebrate, results that look like they can translate to the MLB level, especially with Salcedo facing career-oblivion only 2 years ago.  Any idea where he is assigned, and what role he might have in 2015?  

 

And what about a college arm guy like Cole Johnson?  Definitely older and thus, much less intriguing, but he was another with an under-the-radar, really-good-year, in New Britain.  Consider these stats and Eastern League rankings for pitchers with 70+ IP (and in more high-leverage opportunities than Salcedo):

 

FIP       2.97  5th

SIERA  3.00 1st

K%       26.4%  2nd

AB/K     3.45    2nd

Ksw%  19.9%  5th

K/9      10.16   2nd

K/BB    3.90    9th

 

I've always liked Salcedo. He's still got potential. He wouldn't be in a top 50, but that doesn't mean he can't pitch in the big leagues. 

 

Cole Johnson is similar to AJ Achter. He was drafted just a couple of rounds ago in a very late round from college (Notre Dame)... Doesn't throw real hard, but he's aggressive and just has flown up the system by getting people out. 

[jokin]

Polanco's cup of coffee was strictly based on 40 man considerations, not that he was the best player available at that time.  TR was quite blunt that he thought Polanco struggled this year at the plate and in the field so some sort of acceleration to the bigs is not likely.  From all reports that I've read, he's a second baseman trying to become adequate at SS.  Dozier's experience is telling in that being a good defensive big league shortstop is much harder than playing any other position on the field.

 

I'm not as certain in your conclusion on Polanco's potential career arc. This was Brad Steil's take last week on Polanco at SS in 2014 and going forward, at least a smidge more than "cautiously optimistic":

 

 

The Twins were not afraid to aggressively promote the 21-year-old switch-hitting shortstop through the system, and he ended the year with the Double-A Rock Cats.

 

Polanco hit .288 across the two Minor League levels, sixth-best in the organization. His seven homers and 17 stolen bases were career highs and he contributed 74 runs and 61 RBIs. No Twins full-time shortstop had more homers, RBIs or steals. Despite moving up a couple levels, his on-base percentage only dropped nine points from his 2013 season, proving his discipline and eye could play at the higher levels.

 

"Jorge has handled the progression through the Minor Leagues very well," Steil said. "Offensively, he has a good swing from both sides of the plate, with a little more power from the left side. On the defensive side, he played shortstop on a regular basis this year, after playing a lot of second base the two previous seasons. He has enough athleticism and arm to play short and made a lot of progress this season."

 

 

Clearly, Dozier is not the athlete or prospect that Polanco is.  Regarding Ryan's alleged negativity on Polanco, this is the only thing I can find from Terry Ryan on Polanco,and it appears to be totally related to justifying Ryan in not making him Polanco a September call-up, with Jeremy Nygaard questioning the decision:

 

"Polanco opened eyes in a pair of emergency midseason promotions, but Ryan said he wasn’t a serious consideration at this point in his career. 'I didn’t think he was quite ready for this,' Ryan said. 'He had all he could handle in Double-A. That wasn’t going to be wise.'”

 

 

<<<>>>Jeremy countered, saying:

 

"Jorge Polanco was the offensive star for the Rock Cats. He had an RBI single in the first inning, an RBI single in the eighth inning to tie the game and finally an RBI walk-off double in the bottom of the 13th. Terry Ryan said Polanco “isn’t ready” for a September call-up. I’d beg to differ."  

 

Polanco had 157 PAs at New Britain, and Terry might have felt justified to stop paying attention after the first 77 PAs... but that would have been a mistake... as in his last 80 PAs at AA to close out the season, here was Polanco's slashline:  .347/.413/.431/(.844).  Yes, it's only 80 PAs, but at the very least, it appears that he was making the proper plate adjustments to pave the way for a potential breakout season in 2015.  You're right though, he may never be the ideal answer at SS, but it appears that Steil and Ryan are going to let this play out for at least one more season, we might have the novelty of two offense-first Twins SS on our hands (w/  Santana?).

[beckmt]

I think if Polanco continues, and Santana is able to handle SS this year, Dozier would fetch a good return in the trade market and move Polanco back to second where he has a chance to be better to much better than Dozier

[Seth Stohs]

Polanco was very good in Ft. Myers, but when he got to New Britain, he did struggle... as you would expect a 20 year old to. That's a big jump. He held his own, but he didn't play great. Defensively, he is a work in progress. It's going to take time if they really think he can play short. 

 

The fact that the Twins called him up last year, twice, was a testament to how they feel about his character and makeup and approach. He's incredibly bright. He's not ready for a big league job at all yet, and may not be for another year... but that doesn't mean he doesn't have the potential to be very good. He does.