Asdrubal Cabrera - Twins SS 2015-17?

[tobi0040]

2017? Why bother every buying a ticket for this team then? If it takes three more years, this franchise can kiss its ticket base goodbye.

 

Exactly.  Bottom line is we will have a payroll of about $60-65M next year, plus a bunch of rookies.  If we wanted to, we could justify not spending money in the pen, rotation, infield, and outfield in the offseason.

 

Next year seems to be another year to see what we have at SS, CF, DH, LF, RF, 3B, rotation, and pen.

 

Frankly, I think we are all very happy with our play at SS and that will reverse very quickly next year. SS will could easily be a debacle. 

 

                               Minors           This year

Santana               .705 OPS      .852 OPS (.399 BABIP)

Escobar               .675 OPS       7.17 OPS (.654 MLB OPS prior to this year)

 

I can just hear it, SS has been a real dissapointment this year. The Twins don't seem to trust Santana at SS and he has leveled off with this bat.   Escobar has really struggled as well.  Very surprising.

[nicksaviking]

Agree, but the front office needs to 1) have a vision for the franchise that the manger buys into and 2) Step in when the manager is doing something that is hurting the development of a potentially good young player.

 

 

I don't think a front office would be viewed with much credibility if they fire a manager when they were the ones putting together the lineup.  If they want to insist on who plays when and where, they would need to fire the manager midseason.

[AlwaysinModeration]

This is back of the envelope, but Santana has 236 AB, 49Ks, and 5 HR. So, 182 balls in play. .399 BABIP; 72 balls in play fell for hits. If he instead had a .300 BABIP, that would mean 18 fewer hits.

 

18 fewer hits out of 236 AB translates to a .254 BA.

[jokin]

I've said the developments at shortstop are one of the top positive events for the 2014 Twins, with Polanco and Nick Gordon rated as prospects in the future.  It makes no sense to bring in Cabrera at this stage of his career, even less sense than bringing in Drew this spring.

 

Like Morales and Fuld, signing Drew during spring training for a short-term deal still would have made sense as a bridge-and-flip candidate, especially batting primarily against RHP.

[The Wise One]

I was not aware that Drew would even sign a one year contract during spring training. Plenty of stuff was reported before spring training that Boras wanted a multi year deal with an opt out clause. Sure it would make sense to sign a Drew for a year and trade him to a contender. I doubt that Boras would have allowed his client to be put into that situation.

[Thegrin]

THE Twins are about the future, about development.  If the Twins were to sign Cabrera or another Free Agent Shortstop, what would they be saying?  We don't believe Escobar has improved with age and experience ? Santana had a fluke year so we don't trust him to continue to play well next year ?

I, for one, would be extremely upset with Ryan if that were to happen.

[kab21]

I would be fine if the Twins signed a nice SS that would be very good for 3-4 years.  Unfortunately that player rarely is available and he is never cheap.  I would not be happy if the Twins signed Cabrera because his defense is already questionable and his bat is nothing special.

[TwinsTerritory]

I just don't see the free agent market being very good and I think 2015 needs to be a year where young guys play.  Here would be my analysis of the Twins needs and potential options.

 

Starting Pitching Targets: Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, James Shields

Very unlikely that this happens, but these would be the only starting pitchers I'd target since everyone else on the FA market looks like mid-rotation filler and we have 6 decent SP options already (Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May, Millone) along with some AAA filler (Pelfrey, PIno, Darnell, Johnson).

 

Relief Pitching Targets: Andrew Miller

I don't see the Twins targeting a reliever unless the decide not to offer arb to Duensing.  In that case, I could see them looking at a left-handed reliever and Miller is probably the best option.

 

Catcher: None

With the resigning of Suzuki there won't be a move at catcher.

 

Corner Infield: None

We are pretty set at 1B/DH types and Plouffe is good enough to hold down 3B until Sano is ready.

 

Middle Infield: Hanley Ramirez

This is never going to happen, but he is the only guy I'd view as a major upgrade over Santana (or even Escobar for that matter).

 

Corner Outfielder: Yasmani Thomas, Melky Cabrera

Not a lot of options here, but the I would take a serious look at Thomas and Cabrera.  If I were Terry Ryan, I think Thomas would be my #1 realistic target in free agency.  It will be very interesting to see what his market is considering how well some Cuban guys have played.  Cabrera is still only 29 and has been pretty good in 3 of the past 4 years.  Outside of these 2, I just don't see much that is an big upgrade over guys like Parmalee.

 

Center Field: Denard Span, Colby Rasmus, Grady Sizemore

I really think the Twins start the year with Santana at SS, so that leaves an opening in CF.  Even though many will disagree, I'd like to see Hicks come up in September and get one more shot next spring.   I still think he is part of the future.  If they Twins disagree, I could see them going after the likes of Span, Rasmus, or Sizemore on a short deal.

 

I'd love to see the Twins sign Yasmani Thomas and Andrew Miller.  I think the two of them would fill needs in the short term (Miller) and long term (Thomas), while not blocking any real prospects.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Yep - I agree with those targets. In the starting pitching column, I might add Justin Masterson.

[kab21]

Ervin Santana as well.  I think people overrate the strength and depth of the rotation.  It's better but it's still not very good.

 

The list of players that I would take over Parmelee is considerably longer.  I would also take Willy, Morse, Cuddyer, Markakis, Aoki (CF), Seth Smith (platoon), Hunter, and probably a few others.  Unless Parmelee plays great in September.  I do not want to see him penciled in as a starter next year.  His numbers just continue to drop. 

 

One alternative would be to take a flyer on Jake Peavy on a 1 yr contract.  Boston and the AL East is a pretty bad place for a flyball pitcher.  If it worked he might be the 1st/2nd best starter on the team.

 

I wouldn't be against adding a Frasor (solid/excellent older arm) or Motte (upside) on a shorter term contract (1-2 yrs).  Spending big money on RP'ers like Miller is silly but you can pick up some solid guys that could be the 2nd best RP'er on the Twins for reasonable dollars.  Part of the reason for this is that it's going to be difficult for TR to spend 30M/yr in FA (take the 2015 payroll to 100Mish) unless he is bidding on a top starter (and this is unlikely).  There just aren't many places to spend money and it's silly not to sign a guy to a short term deal when he is better than your other options.  And you pick up a trade asset.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The list of players that I would take over Parmelee is considerably longer.  I would also take Willy, Morse, Cuddyer, Markakis, Aoki (CF), Seth Smith (platoon), Hunter, and probably a few others.  Unless Parmelee plays great in September.  I do not want to see him penciled in as a starter next year.  His numbers just continue to drop. 

Yeah.  As of today, Parmelee's 2014 stat line is almost identical to his disappointing 2012-2013 lines.

 

I don't mind him playing out the string this year, but frankly I might rather see Jordan Schafer out there right now.  And if/when Hicks is back up, Santana/Escobar should probably see action in LF ahead of Parm too.  (Or if we want to get creative, Mauer in LF, Vargas at 1B, and Pinto/Suzuki splitting C/DH.)