MLB Draft Discussion: Day 2

[Jeremy Nygaard]

That's what's confounding about why he went so much lower than Chargois. My guess is Chargois will be tried out as a starter and Duffey will be groomed for high leverage late innings.

As backwards as it sounds, I think it's going to be the other way around. Duffey will get a chance to start. Chargois will be a fast-track relief pitcher.

[drivlikejehu]

That's what's confounding about why he went so much lower than Chargois. My guess is Chargois will be tried out as a starter and Duffey will be groomed for high leverage late innings.

Nope. Chargois has a wacky delivery that won't work as a starter. Duffey doesn't throw hard but is more well-rounded, so in theory they could give starting a try. He would likely have below-average velocity in that role.

[Jim Crikket]

There is always plenty of talk about college coaches abusing the arms of the starters, and teams are concerned about the high number of pitches they go through per start. This practice may not be connected, but the Twins have recently been stung by Gibson and Wimmers going down. I don't want to claim the Twins are drafting college bullpen arms with the plan to convert them to starters because they see it as a way of getting around the typical abuse to college starters arms, but it may have factored into the decisioning.

I agree it's not likely the only reason for what we're seeing, but when I see the way many big time college coaches rack up pitches on the arms of their starting pitchers, I can't help but think this plays in to the Twins' thinking and perhaps rightfully so. College relievers have matured in to their bodies and give scouts a decent idea of their ability to pitch, without suffering the abuse that their starting pitching peers do.

 

I also wonder if the new bonus limits are part of this. Instead of drafting college relievers, a team might have drafted HS pitchers with upside in the past, knowing they'd have to pay a bit more in a bonus to keep them from going to college instead. Now that option is pretty much out. So if you're the Twins and you need pitching, but you see a pretty lousy draft class for starting pitching, what do you do?

 

You take the best hitting prospect.

 

You take a pass on college starting pitchers who aren't as good as they should be for the spots they're expecting to be drafted at, avoiding overpaying for mediocre quality and high injury risks due to overuse at the college level.

 

You scout the hell out of hard throwing college relievers who haven't racked up enormous innings, but are already mature enough to move quickly through the system if they perform well and hope some of them can become starting pitchers.

 

You ignore HS pitchers in the first few rounds because you probably can't pay them enough to keep them from choosing college as a route to getting big paydays in a future draft, instead looking to international options for adding young high-ceiling pitching arms.

 

Seems like the strategy the Twins are taking and while there's no way to know yet whether it's the right strategy, it's not totally without logic.

[jokin]

Nope. Chargois has a wacky delivery that won't work as a starter. Duffey doesn't throw hard but is more well-rounded, so in theory they could give starting a try. He would likely have below-average velocity in that role.

 

Thanks for the info guys. Shows you can't rely strictly on the numbers. What exactly is the urgency to "fast-track" at a position where there is no urgency?

[drivlikejehu]

Except other teams are taking high school pitchers. Will they mostly fail to sign them?

[Jim Crikket]

Except other teams are taking high school pitchers. Will they mostly fail to sign them?

Maybe. Or maybe they'll have to figure out a way to pay them enough to get them signed and either pay less to someone else or pay the penalty for exceeding their allotted budget.

 

I guess my point was just that, this being the first year of these rules, nobody really knows how easy or difficult it will be to sign HS players. They do have more leverage than many of the college relief pitchers, however. A good HS starter who's drafted in the 3rd or 4th round probably believes he's likely to be a 1st rounder after 3 years of college ball. A good college reliever drafted in the 3rd or 4th round probably doesn't see himself moving up enough by staying in college for his senior year to make risking getting hurt in that year a chance worth taking.

 

I think different teams are implementing different strategies without knowing how the rules will really affect the resulting signings. Should make following up on who signs who more interesting anyway.

[nicksaviking]

Thanks for the info guys. Shows you can't rely strictly on the numbers. What exactly is the urgency to "fast-track" at a position where there is no urgency?

Ha, probably because they have some pretty decent BP talent in the minors and they are going to run out of room for them all. Some arms need to be moved along becaue while the Twins bullpen is fine, there is hardly anyone up there who can't be replaced easily without any regret unlike the many arms with upside in the minors.

[J-Dog Dungan]

And another pitcher, this time a lefty by the name of Andre Martinez (another HS arm)

[Highabove]

Tampa drafted Matt Moore in the 8th round back in 2007.

 

Can Twins be that smart????

[nicksaviking]

The video didn't show him topping 88 MPH. He had more than a 3/4 delivery which I'm sure will be very difficult on lefties.

[Shane Wahl]

Wittgren and Oakes should be some Big 10 names coming off the board soon.

[J-Dog Dungan]

I am sure that with said almost sidearm delivery that he will be tough for lefties, and probably righties as well, to handle. With that arm angle, speed isn't as high as it is with guys who go more over the top, so the fact that he can throw 88 with that arm slot is a point in his favor.

[mbents]

I agree it's not likely the only reason for what we're seeing, but when I see the way many big time college coaches rack up pitches on the arms of their starting pitchers, I can't help but think this plays in to the Twins' thinking and perhaps rightfully so. College relievers have matured in to their bodies and give scouts a decent idea of their ability to pitch, without suffering the abuse that their starting pitching peers do.

 

I also wonder if the new bonus limits are part of this. Instead of drafting college relievers, a team might have drafted HS pitchers with upside in the past, knowing they'd have to pay a bit more in a bonus to keep them from going to college instead. Now that option is pretty much out. So if you're the Twins and you need pitching, but you see a pretty lousy draft class for starting pitching, what do you do?

 

You take the best hitting prospect.

 

You take a pass on college starting pitchers who aren't as good as they should be for the spots they're expecting to be drafted at, avoiding overpaying for mediocre quality and high injury risks due to overuse at the college level.

 

You scout the hell out of hard throwing college relievers who haven't racked up enormous innings, but are already mature enough to move quickly through the system if they perform well and hope some of them can become starting pitchers.

 

You ignore HS pitchers in the first few rounds because you probably can't pay them enough to keep them from choosing college as a route to getting big paydays in a future draft, instead looking to international options for adding young high-ceiling pitching arms.

 

Seems like the strategy the Twins are taking and while there's no way to know yet whether it's the right strategy, it's not totally without logic.

 

Well, when you put it like that, what the Twins are doing makes sense. I've been talked off the ledge!

[J-Dog Dungan]

I also agree with everything that you said, Jim C. It all makes sense this year, but if this was last year's draft or the year before's and they had the same draft slot they do this year, people would have been calling them crazy.

[Shane Wahl]

Kyle Hansen is a nice pick, unfortunately, for the White Sox.

[Jim Crikket]

Well, when you put it like that, what the Twins are doing makes sense. I've been talked off the ledge!

Well, you have to consider the fact that I'm just as full of **** as everyone else here, so don't let me influence you too much.

[drivlikejehu]

Maybe. Or maybe they'll have to figure out a way to pay them enough to get them signed and either pay less to someone else or pay the penalty for exceeding their allotted budget.

 

I guess my point was just that, this being the first year of these rules, nobody really knows how easy or difficult it will be to sign HS players. They do have more leverage than many of the college relief pitchers, however. A good HS starter who's drafted in the 3rd or 4th round probably believes he's likely to be a 1st rounder after 3 years of college ball. A good college reliever drafted in the 3rd or 4th round probably doesn't see himself moving up enough by staying in college for his senior year to make risking getting hurt in that year a chance worth taking.

 

I think different teams are implementing different strategies without knowing how the rules will really affect the resulting signings. Should make following up on who signs who more interesting anyway.

The thing is that the Twins are very well positioned this year to add some extra talent due to their high cap number. It's basically a one-time opportunity and so far it looks like they won't take advantage of it. It would really be a disgrace if they left significant money on the table, given the needs of the farm system.

[Mike Sixel]

Jim, it's a great theory, but I really have strong doubts about it's liklihood of success. Just curious, do you feel there is a guy here that will be starting still even in three years in the minors?

[Jim Crikket]

I also agree with everything that you said, Jim C. It all makes sense this year, but if this was last year's draft or the year before's and they had the same draft slot they do this year, people would have been calling them crazy.

People are calling them crazy this year, too. I'll go out on a limb and say they'll call them crazy next year, as well.

[Shane Wahl]

There goes Elander, damn it. I can't think of another higher-caliber catcher left at the moment. What the hell?

[bird]

Jim Crikket, I think that's a pretty good take. There IS a strategy in place. Remember, last year, through 50 rounds, the Twins picked 24 LHP's as I recall. So apparently this year, the spotlight is on hard-throwing college pitchers.

 

I'd sure love it if one of the mainstream scribes would ask the kinds of questions that might give us some genuine insight on this stuff.

[Jim Crikket]

Jim, it's a great theory, but I really have strong doubts about it's liklihood of success. Just curious, do you feel there is a guy here that will be starting still even in three years in the minors?

No.

 

Then again, based on conventional wisdom (which usually isn't all that wise in the end), this draft had very, very few guys in it that I WOULD feel at all strongly about being legit starters three years from now... and even fewer that projected as front of the rotation starting pitchers. That being the case, I'd probably look elsewhere (such as the international market) for my top starting pitching prospects.

[Jim Crikket]

The thing is that the Twins are very well positioned this year to add some extra talent due to their high cap number. It's basically a one-time opportunity and so far it looks like they won't take advantage of it. It would really be a disgrace if they left significant money on the table, given the needs of the farm system.

Two things...

 

One, they can't add extra high quality talent no matter how many picks they have at the top of the draft or how much money they're allowed to spend if the talent in the draft is mediocre. What they were, unfortunately, faced with this year was the opportunity to spend more than any other team to acquire mediocre talent.

 

Two, while they won't have as many picks next year, it sure looks like they'll have another very early pick in the 2013 draft, so from that standpoint, it's not completely a one-time opportunity. It's just a damn shame this draft class looks so bad, relative to recent years.

[Thrylos]

About the relievers the Twins selected: (and Andre Martinez is a starter, if they can sign him)

 

All but Chargois have started before and I suspect that at least 2-3 (Bard, Duffey, Zack Jones) would be converted into starters. Melotakis is an interesting situation. Lots like Corey Williams but with better FB. Could potentially start if he develops his secondary stuff better, but a lefty who hits 98 is a great commodity.

[Mike Sixel]

So far, next year's draft (and its early) looks a lot like this years. At some point, you need to roll the dice on high upside arms.

[Shane Wahl]

****. Cameron Perkins, 3B, taken by the Cardinals. I was hoping he would be taken by the Twins as soon as they started addressing the fact that they have almost zero third basemen in the entire system worth anything outside of Sano and Harrison, neither of which is likely, at all, to stay there.

[drivlikejehu]

Two things...

 

One, they can't add extra high quality talent no matter how many picks they have at the top of the draft or how much money they're allowed to spend if the talent in the draft is mediocre. What they were, unfortunately, faced with this year was the opportunity to spend more than any other team to acquire mediocre talent.

 

Two, while they won't have as many picks next year, it sure looks like they'll have another very early pick in the 2013 draft, so from that standpoint, it's not completely a one-time opportunity. It's just a damn shame this draft class looks so bad, relative to recent years.

Extra talent doesn't mean only top-notch guys. I was referring to their number of picks and ability to add depth. Take a bunch of prep pitchers with good arms and let the minor league staff work with them. Isn't that what the scouts are for, and the developmental personnel are for? A couple relief prospects don't make any difference when an organization has so much ground to make up.

[Shane Wahl]

Haha. Jorge Hernandez, C, taken by the Twins. Just turned 18.

[Jim Crikket]

So far, next year's draft (and its early) looks a lot like this years. At some point, you need to roll the dice on high upside arms.

I won't even pretend to know anything about any of these guys beyond what little I've read and that's a lot less than pretty much everyone else posting here, I'd imagine.

 

That said, exactly who were the "high upside" arms the Twins have passed on?

 

I believe they made the best choice with Buxton at #2, so the handful of SPs that were being discussed as being among the top half a dozen or so picks in the draft weren't really on the table. Even with those guys, while there were all sorts of opinions about how they measured up against one another, I don't recall much talk about any of them being really likely to turn out to be top-of-the-rotation guys. They were just the best of this class.

 

I believe the Twins absolutely need top of the rotation pitching... but you can't draft what doesn't exist. It's frustrating to have all these picks but so few "high upside" arms to pick from. The Twins decided, apparently, that they would try to find high upside arms among college relievers, since they didn't see them among college starters. Maybe they're wrong. Maybe they're right. I'm not smart enough to know that.

[Thrylos]

Haha. Jorge Hernandez, C, taken by the Twins. Just turned 18.

Jose Fernandez is a 6'3" 165 lbs catcher who also plays CF and still growing. Would be interesting to see what happens to him. Committed to Alabama State, but could sign. I think some PR HS kids are signable at this point.

 

maybe there is your third baseman