Rusney Castillo

[drjim]

I am not mad about this particular signing, I'm disappointed they never seem to sign any elite free agent players (since McPhail left). until this year, they didn't even spend money on good ones.

 

Frankly, their track record in signing FAs stinks the last few years.......so maybe I should just not want them to sign anyone, and hope that every single prospect magically works out on the same timeline...../s

 

Hey, at least you are starting to realize the overall effectiveness of free agency in general. The Twins record with free agents is pretty comparable to most teams.

[Mike Sixel]

I know the overall effectiveness.....if you plan to operate on a smaller budget, you need to be better than other teams to be successful. Being "as good as" other teams at finding players....and having a smaller budget....well, good luck with that.

[jokin]

I know the overall effectiveness.....if you plan to operate on a smaller budget, you need to be better than other teams to be successful. Being "as good as" other teams at finding players....and having a smaller budget....well, good luck with that.

 

Which behooves the Twins to hire some scouting/development talent from the A's, Rays, Cards, et al, and maybe in the process expand their philosophical horizons a bit in both regards.

[bird]

That just doesn't sound right.  The "Old Man" gladly approved $3.5 mil for Ramon Ortiz, etc., but would NEVER sign off on a $2 mil bonus for an elite amateur?

 

Maybe the "Old Man" resisted investing more in international scouting and academies, etc, which is great to see reversed, but it has almost nothing to do with competing for guys like Miguel Cabrera.  The whole world wanted Miguel Sano, it didn't take an academy or an army of scouts to sign him, it took an aggressive cash bid.

 

To clarify what the situation was, the decision involved millions up front in costs to improve their Dominican operation and to establish the ill-fated Venezuelan Academy (political turmoils that still greatly strains efforts there). In addition, this extra infrastructure, which includes the now five dozen employees and all their annual expenses, requires many more millions each and every year.

 

So connecting some story about a single player and the building of organizational capacity that puts you in a position to compete for talent year in and year out is futile and the epitome of irrelevance. You have to get off the Miggy Cabrera horse and see the whole picture.

[nicksaviking]

I recommend the Effectively Wild podcast from today, they do a good job of covering this signing.They had an interesting take on Cuban free agents that are currently in the DR, basically asking for six figures for guys that are worse than senior signs in the draft and banking on the continually expanding Cuban bubble.

 

One of these guys will pop it, could be Castillo. But they obviously said the same thing about Abreu and especially Puig and those have been great signings.

One of their bubbles will pop, there's no doubt about it.  But that probably shows that the Twins should have been among the bubbles long ago, heck, there's no rule that said the Twins couldn't have been the team to START blowing the bubbles.

 

Ryan has done many things well, but his biggest shortcoming is that he waits to see which party looks to be the most fun before he rings the doorbell and asks to come in.  He misses out on all the good parts and is left drinking the Old Milwaukee no one else wanted while sitting on the couch eating the last crumbs in the bowl of Cheetos while everyone else is at the bar talking about Rick Hahn's epic kegstand that Ryan missed while he was indecisively lingering on the doorstep.  We need bold, agressive leadership, someone not afraid to be a trailblazer or at least willing to get into the game early.

[drjim]

Which behooves the Twins to hire some scouting/development talent from the A's, Rays, Cards, et al, and maybe in the process expand their philosophical horizons a bit in both regards.

 

Cards yes. But I'll be very interested to see if you think so highly of the A's and Rays in a year or two.

 

People said the exact same thing about the Twins and copying their methods, hiring their staff, not too long ago.

[drjim]

One of their bubbles will pop, there's no doubt about it.  But that probably shows that the Twins should have been among the bubbles long ago, heck, there's no rule that said the Twins couldn't have been the team to START blowing the bubbles.

 

Ryan has done many things well, but his biggest shortcoming is that he waits to see which party looks to be the most fun before he rings the doorbell and asks to come in.  He misses out on all the good parts and is left drinking the Old Milwaukee no one else wanted while sitting on the couch eating the last crumbs in the bowl of Cheetos while everyone else is at the bar talking about Rick Hahn's epic kegstand that Ryan missed while he was indecisively lingering on the doorstep.  We need bold, agressive leadership, someone not afraid to be a trailblazer or at least willing to get into the game early.

 

Are you sure you want to take a controversial position like the Twins should have signed guys that turned out to be good.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If you insist that having people with relationships and connections, scouting and nurturing relationships for years, has nothing to do with successfully signing these Latin players, then it doesn't make a lick of sense to talk further on the subject.

 

So, you're dead right.

Tell how much that has to do with anything, when another team offers 4X the signing bonus?

[drjim]

Baseball America had a good podcast up today on Castillo and Cuban signings. Another good perspective.

 

Big takeaway, general consensus of scouting community was that Cespedes was best coming out, followed by Abreu, followed by Castillo - but obviously money went the other direction. Puig was a special case because there was so little information available.

 

They also brought up lots of Cuban players that signed and haven't exactly panned out. We tend to downplay those transactions because they don't fit the narrative.

[bird]

Which behooves the Twins to hire some scouting/development talent from the A's, Rays, Cards, et al, and maybe in the process expand their philosophical horizons a bit in both regards.

Ah, my favorite! The Rays and A's have talent pipelines far inferior to not just the Twins, but most teams in baseball. The Cards are almost as loaded as the Twins. Each of these organizations do a decent job of scouting and developing, but the Twins are better than both the Rays and A's at drafting and developing players, both through international and domestic channels. You aare one of the many who bought into the belief that the Rays, after a decade or so of top picks, we're these geniuses.

 

Those teams are just as likely to benefit from hiring away our scouts and expanding their philosophical horizons a bit as a result.

 

I listed 20 international prospects in an earlier post. I'll give you a head start, jokin. The Cubs. Now find me two other clubs with as much international talent in the pipeline. yes, you may include the brilliant Cards and A's.

[Mike Sixel]

The As have (under Beane) have never come close to tanking. When their draft pipeline dried up, they found other ways to be good. The As have never come close to tanking. Their down period lasted 2 years, I think, it might have been three. 

[bird]

Tell how much that has to do with anything, when another team offers 4X the signing bonus?

Please go back to the 20 international prospects I named and answer two questions:

 

1. How did the Twins end up being the team to sign these guys?

 

2. How many teams can you uncover who have a better list of 20 international prospects?

 

That is all.

[bird]

The As have (under Beane) have never come close to tanking. When their draft pipeline dried up, they found other ways to be good. The As have never come close to tanking. Their down period lasted 2 years, I think, it might have been three.

 

The assertion was about drafting and development.

[jokin]

Ah, my favorite! The Rays and A's have talent pipelines far inferior to not just the Twins, but most teams in baseball. The Cards are almost as loaded as the Twins. Each of these organizations do a decent job of scouting and developing, but the Twins are better than both the Rays and A's at drafting and developing players, both through international and domestic channels. You aare one of the many who bought into the belief that the Rays, after a decade or so of top picks, we're these geniuses.

 

Those teams are just as likely to benefit from hiring away our scouts and expanding their philosophical horizons a bit as a result.

 

 

 

 

Nice dodge.  Let's compare the results on the field, To suggest that these 3 teams only do a "decent" job qualifies as the baseball understatement of the year.  These teams all have to play the game with one hand tied behind their backs and up against spend-thrift inter-division rivals.  If you can demonstrate how in-demand our insular little community is, from the front office developmental staff, all the way down to the lowliest scouts, are in such demand and "just as likely to benefit by hiring away" by these very successful teams, I'm all ears.   Links please.

[jokin]

The As have (under Beane) have never come close to tanking. When their draft pipeline dried up, they found other ways to be good. The As have never come close to tanking. Their down period lasted 2 years, I think, it might have been three. 

 

The Cardinals last LOSING season was in 1999.  Since 1978, the Cards have had ONE season of losing more than 90 games (1990 when they lost 92 games).  

 

By contrast, in the same time frame, the Twins have 11 seasons of 90+ losses. (on the way to possibly their 12th season of 90+ this year?).

[jokin]

The Cardinals last LOSING season was in 1999.  Since 1978, the Cards have had ONE season of losing more than 90 games (1990 when they lost 92 games).  

 

By contrast, in the same time frame, the Twins have 11 seasons of 90+ losses. (on the way to possibly their 12 season of 90+ this year?).

 

And the Rays were an expansion team, so of course, their first few years were "tanked", in those years, they played in clearly the best division in all of baseball, the AL East.  They've averaged 92 wins per year since 2008, usually with a microscopic payroll and attendance figure.  By contrast, the Twins have had a much higher payroll and usually finished in the top quartile in attendance- and have averaged 77 wins per season.

[jokin]

Baseball America had a good podcast up today on Castillo and Cuban signings. Another good perspective.

 

Big takeaway, general consensus of scouting community was that Cespedes was best coming out, followed by Abreu, followed by Castillo - but obviously money went the other direction. Puig was a special case because there was so little information available.

 

They also brought up lots of Cuban players that signed and haven't exactly panned out. We tend to downplay those transactions because they don't fit the narrative.

 

 

I'm sure there are guys even more speculative than Castillo, but the narrative on Abreu was more like picking a ripe apple off of a tree.  His comp numbers to Cespedes and Puig, both in-league and in international play suggested that he was a very good value and risk for what the White Sox were willing to pay.  What did Rick Hahn and staff know that the Twins didn't?  For starters, they had developed a Cuban contingent of players and a reliable scouting report, that apparently others were severely lacking.

[drjim]

And the Rays were an expansion team, so of course, their first few years were "tanked", in those years, they played in clearly the best division in all of baseball, the AL East.  They've averaged 92 wins per year since 2008, usually with a microscopic payroll and attendance figure.  By contrast, the Twins have had a much higher payroll and usually finished in the top quartile in attendance- and have averaged 77 wins per season.

 

Fun with arbitrary end points?

 

If you took the Twins from 2001-2010 they would compare favorably to almost every team in baseball playing under the same salary constraints that you laud for these two teams. That was my point, take a team at the crest of their wave and they look good, especially compared to teams that are at a low point. We'll see if the shine is just as good in two years for the A's and Rays, I have my doubts. Doesn't mean the front office got dumb, just meant that they will suffer from the same cycles that strike any other team.

 

The Cards, as you mentioned, are the exception. That is where I would look.

[bird]

Nice dodge.  Let's compare the results on the field, To suggest that these 3 teams only do a "decent" job qualifies as the baseball understatement of the year.  These teams all have to play the game with one hand tied behind their backs and up against spend-thrift inter-division rivals.  If you can demonstrate how in-demand our insular little community is, from the front office developmental staff, all the way down to the lowliest scouts, are in such demand and "just as likely to benefit by hiring away" by these very successful teams, I'm all ears.   Links please.

 

Please don't accuse me of that manner of intellectual dishonesty, jokin. We were discussing drafting and development. You broached the topic. You are fully aware that each of these teams partially attributes their success on the field to things other than their own pipeline. Things like good trades, fA signings, and the like. So don't pull out the "understatement" stuff. They're good at drafting and development, maybe better than average. right now, the rankings aren't flattering.

E

When it comes to drafting and development, no team is at a disadvantage against the others EXCEPT in the burden imposed by being low in the draft order. You know this to be true, don't you? I mean, EVERY team has the resources to scout, draft, and develop talent, and every team is committed to this to some extent or another. But some teams, Detroit for example, have chosen to rely less on their own pipeline, right? So you see how nonsensical it is to challeng what I asserted by suggesting we compare the results on the field? Do you want to argue that Detroit is better at drafting and developing players than your beloved Rays. Of course not.

 

I won't respond to your last three sentences and ask that you refrain from that tactic, as it appears to me to be an attempt at condescension, frankly.

[drjim]

I'm sure there are guys even more speculative than Castillo, but the narrative on Abreu was more like picking a ripe apple off of a tree.  His comp numbers to Cespedes and Puig, both in-league and in international play suggested that he was a very good value and risk for what the White Sox were willing to pay.  What did Rick Hahn and staff know that the Twins didn't?  For starters, they had developed a Cuban contingent of players and a reliable scouting report, that apparently others were severely lacking.

 

I suspect the Twins knew they were moving a $23 mil a year player to that position. I'm curious what other teams were doing if it was so obvious.

 

The knock on Abreu was concerns about his ability to handle premium velocity. He started out as a great power source, high k, lower bb. Last month he has been high average, lower power, decreasing ks, increasing bbs. Will be interesting to see what type of player he ultimately becomes next year and going forward.

[Mike Sixel]

The end point chosen for the As is when their GM took over. That was over a decade ago, and not one 90 loss season....and they've altered their plan as needed to succeed as needed. When I get home, I'll find the great article on line about how they've evolved their approach over time, and how they've never had to tank to get high draft picks.

 

that end point for the Card is nearly 4 decades ago, that's a pretty big sample size.

[drjim]

The end point chosen for the As is when their GM took over. That was over a decade ago, and not one 90 loss season....and they've altered their plan as needed to succeed as needed. When I get home, I'll find the great article on line about how they've evolved their approach over time, and how they've never had to tank to get high draft picks.

 

that end point for the Card is nearly 4 decades ago, that's a pretty big sample size.

 

While true they haven't tanked, they also had dry spells in the mid to low 70s wins in the last 15 years. Natural cycles of baseball. They are a very good organization, I don't think anyone would argue with that, nor have they. But we have also seen that their lieutenants that were hired haven't exactly done great elsewhere. Beane is a great GM (maybe the best ever), but I suspect if he turned down the Red Sox he probably won't come here.

 

And I'm not sure why you brought up the Cards.

[jokin]

While true they haven't tanked, they also had dry spells in the mid to low 70s wins in the last 15 years. Natural cycles of baseball. They are a very good organization, I don't think anyone would argue with that, nor have they. But we have also seen that their lieutenants that were hired haven't exactly done great elsewhere. Beane is a great GM (maybe the best ever), but I suspect if he turned down the Red Sox he probably won't come here.

 

And I'm not sure why you brought up the Cards.

 

Because they're in the mix of this conversation as teams for the Twins to consider emulating?

[jokin]

I suspect the Twins knew they were moving a $23 mil a year player to that position. I'm curious what other teams were doing if it was so obvious.

 

The knock on Abreu was concerns about his ability to handle premium velocity. He started out as a great power source, high k, lower bb. Last month he has been high average, lower power, decreasing ks, increasing bbs. Will be interesting to see what type of player he ultimately becomes next year and going forward.

 

 

IIRC, there were about a dozen teams early in on the Abreu hunt, which was later whittled down to just five or so.  From Baseball America, an explanation seems to be based on limited immediate organizational needs at 1st or DH.   The Twins seem to have no problem with Mauer and Vargas in the lineup simultaneously, so this shouldn't have automatically precluded them from considering a strong bid for Abreu. 

 

 

 

 

Abreu’s biggest advocates might come not from the scouting community but from ownership and the analytics people within baseball operations. Owners have seen the success that Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig have had and seem eager not to miss on a Cuban player who could provide an immediate impact, even if their own scouts have reservations about Abreu.

 

A general manager who weighs performance data and his analysts’ statistical translations from foreign leagues more heavily into his decision-making process might be more inclined to pursue Abreu given his lofty track record in Cuba. The fact that data exists only on players going from Serie Nacional to MLB and not the other way around (unlike with MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan), however, is among the major caveats with those statistical equivalencies.Whoever signs Abreu will almost certainly have him on their Opening Day roster, so unlike with a prospect such as Jorge Soler, Abreu’s market will be limited by teams with a need at first base or DH.

 

The article concluded that the the five teams for whom signing Abreu made the most sense were:

 

Nats

Pirates

Red Sox

Rangers

White Sox

 

Credit to BA author, Ben Badler, who in the end got it right, even though other lower payroll teams like the Astros, Marlins and Giants were also in to the end of the bidding battle.

[drjim]

Because they're in the mix of this conversation as teams for the Twins to consider emulating?

 

I thought that was assumed, not questioned, agreed to, and had nothing to do with the arbitrary end point comment.

 

But yes, look closer at how the Cardinals do it. Amazing organization.

[Mike Sixel]

My bad, lots of cross posting......but I'm also not trying to assume anything.

 

I will say, while we don't all agree, this thread is pretty civil. thanks everyone

[drjim]

IIRC, there were about a dozen teams early in on the Abreu hunt, which was later whittled down to just five or so.  From Baseball America, an explanation seems to be based on limited immediate organizational needs at 1st or DH.   The Twins seem to have no problem with Mauer and Vargas in the lineup simultaneously, so this shouldn't have automatically precluded them from considering a strong bid for Abreu. 

 

So you see no difference between letting a prospect that emerged (somewhat surprisingly) and making the minimum versus committing 8 figures a year?

 

If the Twins had Abreu, they wouldn't really have room for Vargas at this point. Which would be a good problem to have, but also part of the calculus of why you don't want to lock up 1B and DH for the next 5 years.

 

This isn't to say I wouldn't want Abreu or I'm happy they didn't sign him, just probably an easy explanation of why they weren't especially interested in a 1B at that price at that time.

[jokin]

And here is Rick Hahn's rationale and 2014 expectations, stated on the day of Abreu's signing, for why he did the deal and why it made sense for the White Sox:

 

 

 

 

"I was talking about [the risk] with a GM of another club and he pointed out every free-agent deal has a risk and comes with potential for down side," White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said. "You can choose to sit and do nothing, which is the safest route, or aggressively address need.

 

"For players who haven't played in the states, it's a calculated risk, but one we had to take. If we are going to get this thing right, and get it done as quickly as we want it done, we are going to have to be bold and be aggressive."

 

"I didn't draw out a statistical line or wins above replacement that I expect him to hit in his first year," Hahn said. "There's going to be an adjustment period. There's going to be him getting used to the daily grind of a major league season, the travel in the states and the games every day for six-plus months. I just want to see him have the ability to maintain physically where he needs to be and mentally where he needs to be and then let the talent take over."

[jokin]

So you see no difference between letting a prospect that emerged (somewhat surprisingly) and making the minimum versus committing 8 figures a year?

 

If the Twins had Abreu, they wouldn't really have room for Vargas at this point. Which would be a good problem to have, but also part of the calculus of why you don't want to lock up 1B and DH for the next 5 years.

 

This isn't to say I wouldn't want Abreu or I'm happy they didn't sign him, just probably an easy explanation of why they weren't especially interested in a 1B at that price at that time.

 

Or that they aren't willing to take the risk that Hahn was willing to take.

[drjim]

Or that they aren't willing to take the risk that Hahn was willing to take.

 

The Twins are certainly more conservative and risk adverse than the White Sox.