Yasmani Tomas defects

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Here were the numbers of four guys that will either be in the rotation or mix next year:

 

                 IP This year      ERA           ERA +    Career ERA +

 

Nolasco         159               5.38          73                   91

Hughes          209               3.52          112                98

Gibson           179               4.47          88                  81

Pelfrey            23                7.99           50                 88

 

And then you have Meyer and May.  Both prospects.  I am excited about Meyer but both of these guys have struggled with control and Meyer has dealt with injuries.

 

When you don't have a single pitcher on your team with a career ERA + of 100, don't blow $70M on an unknown Cuban OF.  Especially when you were 5th in runs the previous season.

 

To be clear, I'm not sold on Tomas, but I think there's some context here worth considering. The Twins OF defense was bad... so bad that every pitcher was signficantly worse than their FIP, including Hughes I might add. If Tomas can be an above average defender while giving an average or slightly better bat in LF, I don't see this as a bad expenditure. It would solve part of the pitching problem at least. Only Arcia is going to be guaranteed a spot in the OF, and while his defense is a work in progress, improving defense in LF and CF would go a long way in reducing some of those runs.

[nicksaviking]

Disagree with this thinking. If he is good and they have other breaks they might be able compete. Or if he is good and (more likely) they aren't competing he can be flipped or extended. If he is bad it buys some development time. All strike me as positive outcomes.

 

Nothing wrong with trying to sign talented players for next year while maintaining roster and payroll flexibility going forward.

 

Right.  Surely the Cubs are much more happy with their Scott Feldman and Jason Hammel signings the last two years than they are with the Edwin Jackson deal.  Heck, I'm sure the Cubs are happier with the Scott Baker deal than the Jackson deal. 

[tobi0040]

Disagree with this thinking. If he is good and they have other breaks they might be able compete. Or if he is good and (more likely) they aren't competing he can be flipped or extended. If he is bad it buys some development time. All strike me as positive outcomes.

 

Nothing wrong with trying to sign talented players for next year while maintaining roster and payroll flexibility going forward.

 

I don't think a guy like Masterson would get extended here if he had a really good season.  He was very good in 2011 and 2013.  If he does it again in 2015 he has more going for him than Homer Bailey, who the market deemed worthy of a $100M deal. Given the bad years I don't see a conservative team like the Twins making that investment, but I think Masterson knows someone else will.

 

Best case IMO is he is lights out and we flip him, but I am just tired of signing guys so we can flip them. At this point I would rather us spend time and money in guys that are going to be here.

[tobi0040]

 

 

To be clear, I'm not sold on Tomas, but I think there's some context here worth considering. The Twins OF defense was bad... so bad that every pitcher was signficantly worse than their FIP, including Hughes I might add. If Tomas can be an above average defender while giving an average or slightly better bat in LF, I don't see this as a bad expenditure. It would solve part of the pitching problem at least. Only Arcia is going to be guaranteed a spot in the OF, and while his defense is a work in progress, improving defense in LF and CF would go a long way in reducing some of those runs.

 

Tomas is an unknown commodity, both on offense and defense.  At this point I don't think we can say he will make our defense better, or at least markedly better. I know he is listed at 6'1 230 at 23 years old.  Those dimensions/age don't make me think of Willie Mays.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

To be clear, I'm not sold on Tomas, but I think there's some context here worth considering. The Twins OF defense was bad... so bad that every pitcher was signficantly worse than their FIP, including Hughes I might add. If Tomas can be an above average defender while giving an average or slightly better bat in LF, I don't see this as a bad expenditure. It would solve part of the pitching problem at least. Only Arcia is going to be guaranteed a spot in the OF, and while his defense is a work in progress, improving defense in LF and CF would go a long way in reducing some of those runs.

All the scouting reports I have seen have said Tomas is an average defender at best, with some suggesting he is fringy. If we go after him it will be because of his offense, not his defense. Given the Twins' current needs, that doesn't make sense to me.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Tomas is an unknown commodity, both on offense and defense.  At this point I don't think we can say he will make our defense better, or at least markedly better. I know he is listed at 6'1 230 at 23 years old.  Those dimensions/age don't make me think of Willie Mays.

but maybe Bo Jackson?

 

(I don't think he's as fast as Bo Jackson)

 

Most of the info that is out there about Tomas talks about his power and his offense. His defense seems to be a weakness. At 24, there's time for him to get better; but there's also a lot of room for him to grow (like David Ortiz) and become a liability in the outfield.

 

He *might* be better than Arcia as a defender, but we could be talking about trying to sign an older version of the guy the Twins already have.  Is having two Arcias better than one? Maybe!

[drjim]

I don't think a guy like Masterson would get extended here if he had a really good season.  He was very good in 2011 and 2013.  If he does it again in 2015 he has more going for him than Homer Bailey, who the market deemed worthy of a $100M deal. Given the bad years I don't see a conservative team like the Twins making that investment, but I think Masterson knows someone else will.

 

Best case IMO is he is lights out and we flip him, but I am just tired of signing guys so we can flip them. At this point I would rather us spend time and money in guys that are going to be here.

 

You're tired of this? I would argue the Twins haven't done nearly enough of this. Too much signing of mediocrity with the intention of keeping them.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think a guy like Masterson would get extended here if he had a really good season.  He was very good in 2011 and 2013.  If he does it again in 2015 he has more going for him than Homer Bailey, who the market deemed worthy of a $100M deal. Given the bad years I don't see a conservative team like the Twins making that investment, but I think Masterson knows someone else will.

 

Best case IMO is he is lights out and we flip him, but I am just tired of signing guys so we can flip them. At this point I would rather us spend time and money in guys that are going to be here.

 

The Twins never buy and flip free agents.  At least not good ones. They should.  They haven't.

 

And if a guy like Masterson has a good year, why do you think the Twins wouldn't be involved in extension talks when you suggest they should sign the same or better caliber free agents for that kind of money and years now?  Why would the Twins go after James Shields for 2015 but not Justin Masterson in 2016?

 

I sincerely doubt Masterson could get a $100 million deal in 2016, but if he did, think about how good his 2015 season would be.  His one year deal in 2015 for $10-14 million deal would be a bargain and he almost certainly would be worth a qualifying offer in 2016.  If the Twins signed anyone on a one year deal this offseason and that player turned into a $100 million dollar player come 2016, that means the Twins hit the jackpot.

[tobi0040]

The Twins never buy and flip free agents.  At least not good ones. They should.  They haven't.

 

And if a guy like Masterson has a good year, why do you think the Twins wouldn't be involved in extension talks when you suggest they should sign the same or better caliber free agents for that kind of money and years now?  Why would the Twins go after James Shields for 2015 but not Justin Masterson in 2016?

 

I sincerely doubt Masterson could get a $100 million deal in 2016, but if he did, think about how good his 2015 season would be.  His one year deal in 2015 for $10-14 million deal would be a bargain and he almost certainly would be worth a qualifying offer in 2016.  If the Twins signed anyone on a one year deal this offseason and that player turned into a $100 million dollar player come 2016, that means the Twins hit the jackpot.

 

I think the Twins have signed a bunch of veterans with the intention of flipping them, unfortunately most played very poorly in their last year.  I know that we were fielding offers for Willingham after the first year but did not move him because we were worried future free agents would not sign here.  He is one example.  We had a flip on our minds with regard to Morales obviously.  In the back of our minds, when we signed the following guys I am sure this was part of the reasoning:

 

Corriea, Pelfrey, Kubel, Bartlett, Harden, and Suzuki.  The first five would not have yielded anything and given our lack of confidence in Pinto, they deemed an extension as the best path for Suzuki. 

 

I think in 2011 and 2012, we should have done more of this to re-stock the system, I agree. But now we need to play guys that are part of the solution.

 

With regard to Masterson, I think given his age he could net a longer offer than Shields.  He is also less consistent.  I don't see him specifically as a fit for an extension with the Twins.  

[SwainZag]

qSo going off fip. We have one very good starter. Another 2/3 (gibson). And a guy that was league average who had elbow issues this year. Then we are relying on meyer and may to round out the rotation (don't think pelfrey or milone are in a playoff rotation).

 

We are giving ourselves no contingency plan, let alone addressing the talent issue. Linus said it best, let's worry about having too many good pitchers when that happens

 

The other issue is we could shave 81 runs off are runs allowed (half run a game) and still be 22nd. Not good enough. We need more pitching talent.

 

Sure 22nd still "wouldn't be good enough" but that also includes 23 starts from Correia, 11 from Pino, 8 from Deduno, 5 from Millone, and 11 from Swarzak/Johnson/Darnell.  That is realistically 2 starters worth of starts.

 

There's a good chance that none of these guys might never start a game for a Twins ever again.

What it does include is a very good year from Hughes, a good improvement in his 2nd year in Gibson, a bad year that resulted in injury for Nolasco and only 9 starts from May.  

 

It depends on a lot on Meyer IMO.  He looked ready in AAA.  If he looks good in ST, the Twins could roll out the season with a rotation of:

 

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

May

Meyer

 

Any FA brought in either blocks Meyer to AAA or to the bigs as a reliever.  I'm not opposed to using Meyer as a reliever, but that probably means they have given up on his a starter.....which I think it's way too early to do.  

[Willihammer]

We're in trouble if Kyle Gibson's our no. 2 starter.

[SwainZag]

We're in trouble if Kyle Gibson's our no. 2 starter.

 

Why's that?  Say all you want about Nolasco, but Gibson was our No. 2 last year.

 

He improved across the board in his sophomore season.  His HR/9 cut in half from 1.2 to 0.6, his BB/9 from 3.5 to 2.9 and his K/9 from 5.1 to 5.4.  Meanwhile his ERA dropped from 6.53 to 4.47 and his FIP from 5.17 to 3.80.  I know it's not a for sure thing to see him improve once again but it wouldn't surprise me.  He was far better in the first 4 months of the season than the last 2....but he was throwing more innings than ever before going from 28.1 in 2012 coming of TJ, 152.2 last year and 179.1 this year.  His arm very well could still be coming around from the 2012 surgery.

 

Maybe I have more confidence in Gibson than some?

[tobi0040]

Sure 22nd still "wouldn't be good enough" but that also includes 23 starts from Correia, 11 from Pino, 8 from Deduno, 5 from Millone, and 11 from Swarzak/Johnson/Darnell.  That is realistically 2 starters worth of starts.

 

There's a good chance that none of these guys might never start a game for a Twins ever again.

What it does include is a very good year from Hughes, a good improvement in his 2nd year in Gibson, a bad year that resulted in injury for Nolasco and only 9 starts from May.  

 

It depends on a lot on Meyer IMO.  He looked ready in AAA.  If he looks good in ST, the Twins could roll out the season with a rotation of:

 

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

May

Meyer

 

Any FA brought in either blocks Meyer to AAA or to the bigs as a reliever.  I'm not opposed to using Meyer as a reliever, but that probably means they have given up on his a starter.....which I think it's way too early to do.  

 

When is the last time bloggers have sat here, six months before the season and named the five starters for the next year? 

 

Where all five of those guys made the team, stayed healthy all year, were all effective, etc.?

 

I just see a ton of hope in that strategy. You are never going to regret adding one starting pitcher that is better than the five you think you have.

[nicksaviking]

Why's that?  Say all you want about Nolasco, but Gibson was our No. 2 last year.

 

 

And how'd that work out for this club?

 

If Gibson, or a Gibsonesque pitcher is the #2 going forward, we're going to be having managerial searches every year.

[SwainZag]

When is the last time bloggers have sat here, six months before the season and named the five starters for the next year? 

 

Where all five of those guys made the team, stayed healthy all year, were all effective, etc.?

 

I just see a ton of hope in that strategy. Hope guys stay healthy, are effective, etc. You are never going to regret adding one starting pitcher that is better than the five you think you have.

 

I think we speculate future rosters 6+ months all the time.   And I said nothing about those 5 staying healthy all year long, you cannot plan for that at all.  That's why you have AAA arms to fill slots, which the Twins do have a lot of future hopefuls.   

 

On the other hand, signing free agents and pushing your young starters back to AAA to wait upon injuries doesn't seem like a good strategy.  If the team has decided that they think May/Meyer need more AAA time already......then sure why not, go sign another starter.

 

And how'd that work out for this club?

 

If Gibson, or a Gibsonesque pitcher is the #2 going forward, we're going to be having managerial searches every year.

 

So the problems for the club last year were Gibson being the #2 starter?  His 2.5 WAR, 3.80 FIP and 3.99 xFIP said otherwise.  If he doesn't improve upon this year....sure he might be a solid #3 the problems fell much more who were 3-5 in the rotation rather than him being the club's 2nd best starter.

[tobi0040]

I think we speculate future rosters 6+ months all the time.   And I said nothing about those 5 staying healthy all year long, you cannot plan for that at all.  That's why you have AAA arms to fill slots, which the Twins do have a lot of future hopefuls.   

 

On the other hand, signing free agents and pushing your young starters back to AAA to wait upon injuries doesn't seem like a good strategy.  If the team has decided that they think May/Meyer need more AAA time already......then sure why not, go sign another starter.

 

We definitely speculate all the time. 

 

My point was that penciling in Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, and May is not giving us any room for error.  That plan looks an awful lot like Mike Pelfrey getting 20 starts next year, so help us god.

 

It is not clear to me that Meyer is going to make this team out of spring training, or that May was effective enough to be handed a rotation spot.  Or that Nolasco will be healthy and effective next year. Let alone an unexpected injury.

[Willihammer]

Why's that?  Say all you want about Nolasco, but Gibson was our No. 2 last year.

 

He improved across the board in his sophomore season.  His HR/9 cut in half from 1.2 to 0.6, his BB/9 from 3.5 to 2.9 and his K/9 from 5.1 to 5.4.  Meanwhile his ERA dropped from 6.53 to 4.47 and his FIP from 5.17 to 3.80.  I know it's not a for sure thing to see him improve once again but it wouldn't surprise me.  He was far better in the first 4 months of the season than the last 2....but he was throwing more innings than ever before going from 28.1 in 2012 coming of TJ, 152.2 last year and 179.1 this year.  His arm very well could still be coming around from the 2012 surgery.

 

Maybe I have more confidence in Gibson than some?

30 teams, 150 rotation spots. Take the top 150 by games started, let's see where Gibson ranks (quintile).

 

K-BB%: 5th

xFIP: 3rd

SIERA: 3rd

 

Among this year's playoff teams, here's where Gibson would rank (quintile):

 

K-BB: 5TH

xFIP: 3rd

SIERA: 4th

 

You might think he's still improving, I don't see it happening. Sinker-slider can only take you so far. He's a 3 at best.

[SwainZag]

We definitely speculate all the time. 

 

My point was that penciling in Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, and May is not giving us any room for error.  That plan looks an awful lot like Mike Pelfrey getting 20 starts next year, so help us god.

 

It is not clear to me that Meyer is going to make this team out of spring training, or that May was effective enough to be handed a rotation spot.  Or that Nolasco will be healthy and effective next year. Let alone an unexpected injury.

 

Fair enough and you make a good Pelfrey point.  You can never predict health either.  That being said I would be extremely dissapointed if we have to watch May and Meyer dominate AAA next year because a few free agents were brought in and get the nod.

[SwainZag]

30 teams, 150 rotation spots. Take the top 150 by games started, let's see where Gibson ranks (quintile).

 

K-BB%: 5th

xFIP: 3rd

SIERA: 3rd

 

Among this year's playoff teams, here's where Gibson would rank (quintile):

 

K-BB: 5TH

xFIP: 3rd

SIERA: 4th

 

You might think he's still improving, I don't see it happening. Sinker-slider can only take you so far. He's a 3 at best.

 

I think it's a stretch to say he is done improving, he has 41 big league starts and just a shade over 200 innings pitched.  If he stagnates next year and doesn't improve, yes those numbers would be a for a 3, I'll agree to that.

[tobi0040]

Fair enough and you make a good Pelfrey point.  You can never predict health either.  That being said I would be extremely dissapointed if we have to watch May and Meyer dominate AAA next year because a few free agents were brought in and get the nod.

 

I think we should sign one guy, but only a top 4 FA or trade for a guy that is an upgrade.  Then have a healthy competition.  I think they want Meyer to start in AAA anyway.  If he does make the team in April at worse you have May in the pen for awhile until someone is hurt or pitches themselves out. 

 

I think another bottom-feeder type signing makes no sense.

[nicksaviking]

 

So the problems for the club last year were Gibson being the #2 starter?  His 2.5 WAR, 3.80 FIP and 3.99 xFIP said otherwise.  If he doesn't improve upon this year....sure he might be a solid #3 the problems fell much more who were 3-5 in the rotation rather than him being the club's 2nd best starter.

 

Gibson isn't the problem, much like Kevin Correia wasn't the problem in 2013.  The problem is that the Twins rely on them to be at the front of the rotation when a normal playoff team would be deciding if these guys would make the post season roster as a long man in the bullpen or if they'd be left off completely.

[tobi0040]

Gibson isn't the problem, much like Kevin Correia wasn't the problem in 2013.  The problem is that the Twins rely on them to be at the front of the rotation when a normal playoff team would be deciding if these guys would make the post season roster as a long man in the bullpen or if they'd be left off completely.

 

Like how Kevin Gausman did not crack the O's four man playoff rotation. Or when Lohse won like 16 games for us and did not crack our rotation......those were the days.

[Linus]

What is it about Trevor May's performance last year, especially at the major league level that makes people want to hand him a job out of spring training next year?  I hope he has a long and successful career for the Twins - he is just as likely to never be an effective big league pitcher.

 

Between that possibility and the inevitable injuries we will get a steady diet of Pelfrey / Milone / K. Johnson, and that's if Meyer pitches well right out of spring training.  I am a patient person and have been all throughout the last 4 years, mainly because there just wasn't any talent in the pipeline to make a difference.  That's changed now - we can be a competitive club next year, dare I say contenders but only if this dreadful rotation is upgraded.

 

 

 

[kab21]

Sure 22nd still "wouldn't be good enough" but that also includes 23 starts from Correia, 11 from Pino, 8 from Deduno, 5 from Millone, and 11 from Swarzak/Johnson/Darnell.  That is realistically 2 starters worth of starts.

 

There's a good chance that none of these guys might never start a game for a Twins ever again.

What it does include is a very good year from Hughes, a good improvement in his 2nd year in Gibson, a bad year that resulted in injury for Nolasco and only 9 starts from May.  

 

It depends on a lot on Meyer IMO.  He looked ready in AAA.  If he looks good in ST, the Twins could roll out the season with a rotation of:

 

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

May

Meyer

 

Any FA brought in either blocks Meyer to AAA or to the bigs as a reliever.  I'm not opposed to using Meyer as a reliever, but that probably means they have given up on his a starter.....which I think it's way too early to do.  

 

It's frustrating that you can identify the problem last year (too many starts by mediocre pitchers) and then propose a starting rotation that exposes the Twins to that same problem since there is almost no depth in AAA in case the inevitable injury or poor performance happens.

 

I have a problem if a mediocre pitcher like Pelfrey or Correia are brought in but I can't understand how anyone can have an issue with a legitimately good pitcher is brought in.  Prospects will get their chance if they are good enough.

[SwainZag]

It's frustrating that you can identify the problem last year (too many starts by mediocre pitchers) and then propose a starting rotation that exposes the Twins to that same problem since there is almost no depth in AAA in case the inevitable injury or poor performance happens.

 

I have a problem if a mediocre pitcher like Pelfrey or Correia are brought in but I can't understand how anyone can have an issue with a legitimately good pitcher is brought in.  Prospects will get their chance if they are good enough.

 

I don't have an issue with legitimately good pitchers to be brought in.  I just think in this reality, they aren't going to be brought in.  The odds of Sheilds, Lester, Scherzer being brought in probably are pretty slim.  The odds are if they bring in any pitchers they will bring in guys off down years who they got for cheap.  Guys that could turn it around, or guys who will chew up 20-25 medicore starts who could be given to a younger player.  That's how I see it.