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Solidifying The Twins Up The Middle


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Over the past month, two Minnesota Twins hitters have been absolutely unconscious in relation to their teammates. Both Kurt Suzuki and Brian Dozier have been so red hot at the plate, they've completely turned around the storylines of their early seasons. While Suzuki is in the last year of his deal with Minnesota, and is likely on his way out, Dozier is not and finds himself in a different situation.

 

Coming into the season, there was some significant worry about what Brian Dozier's career may turn into. Fangraphs questioned whether his pull happy tendencies would have him looking like Dan Uggla sooner rather than later. Using that as a baseline, I too was worried that we may have seen the best of what Dozier has to offer.

 

Then there was the early season swoon for the Twins second basemen. He was determined to pull the ball regardless of what that meant for the team. His approach had become one of a sellout for power, and in turn, allowed him to maximize his career potential. The piece that became maybe hardest to be patient with was that there were numbers that suggested Dozier would turn things around, despite what we were watching was telling us. Now through the month of June, we have seen a guy that looks every bit the part of his 2015 All Star self come full circle.

 

Back in May, the numbers I noted included a 7.5% HR/FB ratio, a 17.2 K%, and an 81.2% contact rate. While Dozier was putting up better peripheral numbers than at most points in his career, the results simply weren't following suit for him. Fast forward to where we are now, and things have normalized significant. He's still making great contact, in fact he's bumped the number to an even 82%. His strikeout rate has continued to drop, and Dozier is heading back to the bench just 16% of the time (a very nice adjustment from his Twins record setting strikeout total a year ago). The biggest difference though comes by way of the longball.

 

I wrote that piece talking about numbers suggesting not to panic on Dozier on May 3. To that point, the second basemen had just three homers for the Twins. His 7.5% HR/FB ratio was nearly half of what it was a season ago. Now, Dozier has boosted his his HR/FB ratio to a whopping 12%. It's equated to nine more home runs for the 2015 All Star, and his game looks to be back in line with what we have come to expect from him.

 

Just over a year ago, Brian Dozier was climbing into elite territory among second basemen. From a position that doesn't boast an incredible amount of offensive stalwarts, he was right there behind the Jose Altuve's of the big leagues. With his resurgence and normalization, he's made good once again on his contract, and has the Twins having to wonder what to do with the middle of their infield.

 

Enter Jorge Polanco.

 

A top Twins prospect and just 22 years old, Polanco is going to force the Twins to make a decision on him sooner rather than later as he'll be out of options a season from now. Through 48 games at Triple-A Rochester this season, he's slashing .289/.344/.492 with 22 extra base hits. He's played nearly exclusively at second base (41 games with one at third base), and hasn't played considerable time at shortstop since 2015 at Double-A Chattanooga.

 

For Polanco, the thought was that he'd never be able to stick at short in the big leagues. With 339 games under his belt in the minors at short, he's made 99 errors in just shy of 3,000 innings. His .932 fielding percentage leaves plenty to be desired, and would likely be an area of concern at the highest level. What the Twins haven't done however is find out.

 

When Eduardo Escobar hit the disabled list early in 2016, I argued that Paul Molitor should have deployed Polanco at short on a nearly every day basis. Eduardo Nunez is a fun story, but not an every day player, and he's started to show that. Molitor failed to employ the idea however, and aPolanco was given little opportunity to provide and level of clarity for the Twins.

 

Now having returned and surged since being injured, Escobar once again looks like the Twins best option at short. What's worth exploring though is whether or not an ideal situation involves both Polanco and Escobar garnering starts at short for Minnesota. In this scenario, Minnesota would likely (and should) need to move Eduardo Nunez. It's a proposition I have been making for weeks, and while he likely isn't going to have a ton of trade value regardless of his out-of-nowhere 2016, shipping Nunez elsewhere opens a necessary roster spot for the Twins.

 

At this point, Minnesota appears committed to the idea that Nunez is an All Star. For marketing purposes, it makes sense as to why they'd want to hold onto him until after the mid-summer classic in San Diego. Shortly thereafter though, Terry Ryan needs to cut ties and turn shortstop over into a rotational situation between Escobar and Polanco.

 

Going forward, the Twins absolutely have to make a decision on who stays and who goes between Dozier and Polanco. If Jorge can't hack it at short and his lone position is second base, I'd look to send him packing. He's not going to bring the return that Dozier presumably would, but he also would have some serious production shoes to fill if Minnesota did move on from Dozier.

 

In an ideal situation the Twins enter 2017 with Eduardo Escobar and Jorge Polanco splitting time at shortstop with Brian Dozier holding down second base. If the return for Polanco can help you elsewhere, he's the piece I'm willing to move. Barring a club giving up a handful of prospects for an All Star caliber player in Dozier, I want to hold onto one of the most productive players on the Twins roster.

 

Going forward, third base is Miguel Sano's while first base is Joe Mauer's. What happens up the middle is up in the air for the time being, but the Twins could provide themselves more clarity over the next couple of months.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

6 Comments


Recommended Comments

Rosterman

Posted

Dozier is a tough call. He's 29, you have two more years. He might have a breakout season, but you pretty much know what to expect. Double his numbers this year, you have a tad higher average than ever before but consistency in ALL categories including walks, strikeouts, doubles. His fielding has gotten better, it seems, but that depends on who is playing short. 

 

Polanco brings youth. He might bring speed, the ability to put a ball in play, draw more walks, strikeout less. You are eliminating the power. Can you have total power weakness up the middle - catcher, second base, shortstop, centerfield? Does the speed you WILL have at second and centerfield offset that loss? Does right and left make up the difference? 

 

You can run with a year of Polaco as a reserve, filling in as needed at second/short/third. You also have Santana in the reserve category if Rosario comes back to the outfield. You might also find a reason to keep Nunez. You have Escobar. 

 

After a year of Polanco as a reserve, you need to make a longer-term decision on Dozier, or hope that another team also sees him as a long term solution. Which means you trade him in 2018 at the latest, or extend him (shades of thoughts about Plouffe right now)

 

You CAN play Polanco as a reserve for a couple of seasons. You are pretty much guaranteed that his three arbitration years would be lower in salary than if you started him at second out of the chute in 2017.

 

Dozier (and Suzujki) are both making themselves attractive pieces for acquisition. One longer term, the other a short-term fix. 

 

If the Twins feel that Polanco can play second base and are willing to take what they get over the next few seasons, then you move Dozier. If not, you have a few middle infield pieces to try and pawn, one being a potential prospect. But right now, I would picture most other teams would grab Polanco and put him in a reserve role, too, in 2017 and see where he goes from there. 

 

If Polanco has true worth (assuming you are keeping Dozier for the term and looking at extending him) would be to package with Nolasco or another salary you wish to rid yourself of. A promising prospect and an expensive player for some more minor league depth.

 

Yes, the Twins can start turning things around this season. But as other posters have said, even if they play .500 ball, they end up with 90+ losses. ALL the players are smart if they do start producing. It will mean they have jobs with the Twins or elsewhere come 2017. If they continue to stumble, a few will be unemployable. 

 

And the Twins HAVE to make the decision on the direction they are going, not just play for the possibility of winning today. YOU CAN MARKET a losing team, you can market rebuilding. You just have to accept the fact, adjust some ticket prices, make the event of going to a game even more fun (rather than lame),

 

What's sad is the stumbling block we will see the Twins have. Do we change front office, field management, stay as we are with internal options, keep things going the Twins Way, addressing problems us armchair fans don't really see or know exist,

 

Maybe every day they are having meetings discussing direction - on-field and marketing. Maybe there is a plan in place (and they REALLY DON'T HAVE TO SHARE IT with us...because plans can succeed or fail.

 

Okay, let's get back to discussing who the Twins would lose in an expansion draft!

TNTwinsFan

Posted

Have Polanco start at SS in AAA until Nunez is traded. See if he can improve with his glove. Once in the bigs, rotate him between 2B, 3B, and SS, supplanting Santana as the new Utility guy. Santana should be moved, too, and replaced with Rosario. OF of Rosario/Buxton/Kepler/Grossman is the way to go. INF of Sano/Escobar/Dozier/Mauer with Polanco getting reps at 3 INF spots. DH should be Park or ABW (or Palka...I like his LH power bat). That alignment sets us up nkcely for next year. Pitching is a whole other story!

Platoon

Posted

Dozier has had three major slumps in the last two and a half years. And he will return to one as soon as they go back to pitching him outside. This spring he crowded the plate and you could get him out jamming him. Now he's off the plate and still gets an absurd number of inside pitches. Some are missed spots and some are just plain stupid. Our renewed offense is also because we went through the some pretty weak SP opponents. That said, they are hot now. Red hot. Suzuki will definitely return to a pumpkin. Dozier will definitely slump big again. Look at their ages, it's not like they have no history. One last thing about Dozier. His attitude is blatantly selfish, and if anyone wonders why this team has no mojo, no apparent drive, they might look at the team leader. To paraphrase the old saying, 'all for one, and one for me too'! BD has made it clear he only cares about BD, and while Molitor and Brunansky either ignore it, or kiss his butt, the other 24 guys are fully aware of the way him, and Plouffe, are handled. There are a myriad of players in MLB who could hit 20 HR's if given the green light to pull everything with no repercussions when it fails for months. It's not talent that allows Dozier to do this, it's gutless management.

Boone

Posted

The decision between Polanco and Dozier is an easy one, at least for me. The core of the Twins future--Sano, Buxton, Berrios--are all 22 (and Kepler is 23). If we assume that the prime years of this core (ages 25-30) will be the best years for the Twins, then the Twins should be focusing 3-8 years down the road.

 

Now, onto Polanco and Dozier. Polanco is also 22, whereas Dozier is 29. 3 years from now, Polanco will be 25, entering his prime. Dozier will be 32, certainly post-prime. 8 years from now, Polanco will be 30, at the end of his prime. Dozier will be 37, probably out of the league.

 

Quite simply, Polanco's career timeline lines up much better than Dozier's. There's no guarantee that Polanco's career peak will be quite as good as Dozier's, but he is 22, hitting well in AAA, and has hit well at every level of the minors. So we should expect him to be a productive major leaguer. And if he does, he will be much better than Dozier during the prime years of Minnesota's core.

 

Add in the fact that Dozier probably has more trade value today and Polanco is near MLB-ready and it seems like a no-brainer. Trade Dozier. Insert Polanco as second baseman of the future.

howieramone2

Posted

They won't trade Nunez, because he's helping us win now, and is insurance in case Brooks Sano doesn't work out at 3B and is moved to full time DH in 2017.  Polanco can't beat out Dozier, and we have other top prospects in the pipeline. I believe we will package Polanco with one of our better starting pitching prospects and make a trade this off season.

dxpavelka

Posted

Dozier has been EN FUEGO.  For a month.  ONE month in the last six.  'Nuff said.

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