Minny505

Interesting perspective. I feel you've got it backward though. According to Statcast Outs-Above-Average, Gregorius and Polanco are exactly even over the last two seasons and they are poor defenders in the same way as well. Using UZR to tip the scales, I'd actually prefer Polanco playing SS over Gregorius, providing their numbers stay consistent. Polanco is also 3 years younger, something that probably matters more at SS than any other position. Semien's mediocre defensive numbers are largely skewed by poor "to his right" numbers. Seeing as he has had the best defensive 3B alive playing to his right during that time, I can excuse him not making plays that are converted to outs by Chapman. And of course, Simmons is probably the best fielding SS MLB has seen since Ozzie Smith. He hits LHP well and that is something the Twins need. All contracts being equal, Semien is likely the best of the group and is a great fit, improving both the lineup and the defense. Simmons improves the defense the most and, while he struggles against RHP (Polanco can start 30% of those games), his bat against LHP will still be an asset. Gregorius just seems redundant with Polanco in the field and in a lineup with plentiful LHB in Polanco(see splits), Arraez, Kepler, Kiriloff, Cave, and even Gordon, Blankenhorn, and Wade. Also, fantastic article Cody.

I'd like to submit Masahiro Tanaka for 1 year at $15mil. That is reportedly what he is looking for (https://sny.tv/articles/how-corey-kluber-deal-happened-and-what-it-means-for-yankees-rotation) Not sure if the Twins would be on his list of potential destinations, but it could be. Would certainly be preferred over anyone on this list, and maybe even over Odo, if that reported contract price and length are accurate.

I'm so confused by the absence of Masahiro Tanaka from this list. He is the flip side of the Jake Odorizzi coin. If Odorizzi is 2a, Tanaka should be 2b...right? Whatever it takes to sign Odo, that is about the same as it will take to sign Tanaka. MLBTR has them projected for the exact same contract. And the Yankees are likely out of the bidding now. Mostly curious as to your reasoning Nick for not including him?

I completely agree with you. Five years of Dunning seems more valuable than one year of Lance Lynn.

This list is so much fun Nick. Thank you. My only substantial point of disagreement, which has been pointed out by many others already, is the ranking of Arraez. You seem so low on him, it's borderline shocking. He is projected to have the 2nd most WAR on the roster in 2021 by ZiPS. Steamer has him as the best two bagger in the AL per 600PAs. Add in that Arraez is essentially the same age as Jeffers and Larnach, only a half year older than Kirilloff, under team control for five more years, vs six with those guys, and I feel like you have a more valuable asset than either Jeffers or Larnach, one that is much closer to Kirilloff. Just my two cents. Thanks again Nick. Keep doing the things. Appreciate you.

With this CBA expiring after 2021, I expect this is the last season we will see these particular shenanigans employed.

The more I look at the IF situation, the more I believe getting one of the 3 SS on the market is a crucial move. Polanco, Arraez, and Donaldson, all have concerning injury histories. Signing a SS and moving Polanco to UI gives everyone in that group a chance to start at least 120 games each. That's if everyone stays healthy, which would be amazing, but unlikely. In that scenario, if Polanco stays healthy (which is already in question to start the season), he could easily end up getting 150 starts or so on the season. If we don't sign a SS, we likely end up giving 100 or so starts to a mix of players like Adrianza, Blankenhorn, Gordon, etc. That sounds horrible.

Awesome post. You are spot on about it likely taking Belazovic for the Twins to get him for one season. Hard "no" on that proposition. Rangers did incredibly well in this deal. Good on them. Unless the ChiSox worked out a gentlemen's agreement with Lynn to sign him to an extension, I don't like this deal much for them. That's a lot to give up for one year of Lynn, who slipped a bit last season, despite a great ERA. His velo and Ks were down a tick from 2019, which at 33 years old, may be the first season of a steady decline. Still a very good pitcher to have for the next season or two.

I'd like to correct you Nick. MVP Baseball 2005 was not the final installment of the series. There was an 06 and 07 as well. And as far as the gameplay on the field was concerned, they were a huge jump over 2005, as hard as that may be to believe. MVP 06 is probably the game I have sunk the most time into in my life. I never played 2005 after I purchased 06. It is true EA lost their MLB license, but they transitioned over to college. Running a college program was even more satisfying on console back then than it was to run a MLB team. I say all this as a guy who has watched about 50 innings of college baseball in my life. I watch that many innings a week of MLB ball during the season. But the gameplay was so amazing and that is all I really care for in a baseball game. The pitching was improved from 2005. The fielding was the most fun I've ever had playing defense in a video game. The batting animations and ball flight were on par with The Show in 2010. And the base running control has never been matched. I never moved on from playing that game of baseball until The Show 2016. 10 years of sticking with it. None of the versions of The Show up until then were good enough for me to make the switch. And OOTP helped feed the GM addiction.

This is so wonderful and ridiculous and terrible all at once. Well done and thank you.

Are there rules to how you can call up and send down guys from the alt site this year? It may just be to bide time with the bullpen and then send down Astudillo when Dobby's next start rolls around, similar to what the Dodgers are notorious for doing. Dobnak probably never throws a pitch in game action at the alt site.

I was watching the ChiSox broadcast last night (cuz they might be the best broadcast in MLB nowadays) and when the Twins went to Rogers last night they said the lefty matchup is where they win their games. And that is exactly what happened. With a wRC+ of 149 vs LHP on the season, that is a ridiculous spot to put Rogers in. I think more than the win, Rocco had "test" in mind for Rogers. Best to find out now, in September rather than October, how the lefty can perform against that lineup. And he got his answer. It's unfortunate one of our best bullpen weapons is a liability against the Sox, but baseball is a bittersweet science and that science is bitter about that matchup for any LHP.

Do we know if rosters are dropping to 26 for the playoffs this year? If not, keep them all. Maybe drop one to keep Hill on the roster, because that dude is as good as any in MLB one time thru the lineup. We know, based on studies published by Fangraphs, BP, etc, that relievers carry an ERA about one run higher on day two of back-to-back usage vs 1+ day off. That means we should basically never use a reliever two games in a row since we have so much depth. I trust Matt Wisler on rest to perform better than Tyler Duffey on day two of a back-to-back...in any situation. So bring them all and use them all. There is no reason to bring depth for position players except in the case of injury. Cave will be essentially relegated to pinch running duties. Gonzales and Adrianza may only be late inning defensive replacements for Arraez and Sano. You only need two catchers. 13 position players and 15 pitchers seems good to me for a 28 man roster. Now if the roster is 26, then we have to talk cuts.

It sure seems like Arraez was just trying to knock that ball out of the air, not trying to catch it. He rushed the play after that and didn't think the plan all the way thru. He just seemed to recognize that, with the bases loaded, putting that ball on the ground was the right decision.

Arraez is still hitting pretty well. His baseball card stats are ugly, but head over to statcast and you'll see a different story. His xwOBA thru Friday was higher than the same number in 2019. It fell over the weekend, but he's still hitting great. I'd even consider moving him up to leadoff at this point. We are only scoring runs on homeruns and having one of our best OBP guys on base for more of those homeruns by putting him immediately ahead of the homerun hitters seems like a great way to score more runs period.

Yeah, this seems to be a depth move. I like it. They need to add another position player to the roster and he is probably their best option. Right now, the team does not have enough position players on their active roster to fulfill the new 26-man requirement, which is 13. Obviously that requirement has been waived for 2020, but I still think it is in the best interest of the Twins to have 13. This move gets them there.

Yup. Dyson is batting like an average NL pitcher in seasons of yore. (Feels so good to write that!!)

I feel like Berrios is really nibbling once he gets to 2 strikes. He is trying so hard to make the perfect pitch in that situation to get the K recorded and missing his spot far more often than not. It's easier said than done, but he needs to just keep attacking once he is there. Hope he can make that mental adjustment.

My bad. I just saw that the Dodgers had the most wins with a MUCH bigger run differential. Didn't realize it was actually a tie with the breaker going to the Rox due to less games played. But details are important...especially in MLB. You win.

The Dodgers are in first place and they have looked like the best team in MLB in the first week plus. I feel it is more likely the Twins leapfrog the Yankees based on the results so far. But honestly, just enjoy. If the Twins sit at #3 all season on that list, that's great. Yankees, and especially the Dodgers, deserve those spots right now.

To me, Rosario looks like he is going to the plate for some PAs with an active, "don't swing" approach. He is not looking for a strike to do damage on and spitting on pitches outside the zone, he is just looking to take pitches. That's not really being disciplined. He needs to be identifying pitches as balls or strikes and, as Doug Latta says, deciding to NOT swing at balls. That is not what seems to be happening. This is probably better than him just swinging at everything every time. It may force pitchers to throw more strikes once the word is out. It may just mean pitchers begin to fish with their first pitch of a PA to see which approach Eddie has chosen to use this time up and then pitch accordingly. And maybe he actually develops better strike zone judgment by seeing more pitches per plate appearance and eventually learning what he should and should not be swinging at and this is just the first necessary step down that road. I'm hopeful.

Anyone know where we can watch the highlight of that defensive play in the 9th? I cannot find it anywhere online. That was pure entertainment.

Donaldson's swing looks all kinds of messed up right now. There is no one outside the AL Central I have watched swing as much as Donaldson over the past seven years. I absolutely love watching him swing the bat. It's gorgeous. The swing he is putting on the ball right now is not that swing I love. He is getting loaded late and not able to get his hands in his proper position. His hips are not as far into their rotation as they have been in the past when his bat is entering the hitting zone. As a result, he is rushing his bat thru the zone, looking like he is trying to catch up to the baseball while his feet are still "flat", swinging level or even down at a ball. We are seeing a lot of ground balls from him as a result. On his follow thru, his hands are often chest high, where in the past his hands have been at earhole height. This is THE guy that popularized the 10-15 degree swing plane in the pop culture of MLB fans. The camera caught him last night at a monitor in the dugout talking to guys about his swing and pointing something out. I'm sure he is as aware of this issue as I am. His last PA of the night he did have a better swing plane, but it was still off time. He swings so hard and he is still hitting the ball with great exit velos, but the launch angle is Eric Hosmer-like. I don't know if this is a timing issue with a short ramp-up or if he has some nagging leg issue going on. He has pulled up from a few runs looking like he has a cramp going on. He has a notorious history with calf issues so it is something to watch. I hope it's just rust. I have no doubt he can turn that around if that is the case. If it's a barking calf, this may not be as quick of a fix.

I heard one of the BP or Fangraphs writers (I think Jaffe but I'm not sure) on a podcast a few weeks ago about Arraez (I'm paraphrasing here): We're getting a little ahead of ourselves here but, he had the kind of rookie season that, if he performs like that for his career and stays healthy, he's a lock for the hall of fame. It's so rare that we see a kid come up at 22 and take ABs like him and make that kind of contact. It's not fair to say that yet of course, but he matches the comps perfectly. I really wish I could remember which pod & episode that was. ...And he's batting ninth for the Twins!!! That's how good this lineup is. GO TWINS!!!

It sounds like you took this strictly off projected WAR, so I'm surprised Moncada is projected as a better player than Jose Ramirez. Ramirez is a beast. As is Donaldson. Moncada doesn't even seem in the same tier as those two. A little surprised at Polanco over Adalberto Mondesi. While I am not surprised that Odo is projected to be better than Dick Mountain, I would bet even money that Hill finishes with a more impressive year...even before the Odo injury.