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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    I love this study @bean5302. I would like to know what your qualifications are for the Top 8 Frontline starters. Was it total dollars? Dollars per year? Was this cherry picked at all? I hope you see this and can respond. There is a point where the investment does become a bad investment and the Twins, due to total financial resources actually available before taking a loss on team ownership, will always get outbid by deeper pockets. For example, every one of those SPs, sans Greinke, was signed by a team up against the soft cap. This means if the Twins need to throw an extra $4mil a year at Darvish to sign him, that becomes a bad contract, looking more like a Mike Pelfrey level signing than what the Cubs got. Can the Twins be a better team using that kind of approach? I don't think they can. Kind of depressing. I'd like to see a recreation of the same study, but with solid second tier starters. I'm thinking somewhere between $60mil and $100mil, such as a Hyun Jin Ryu signing. What is the value of those contracts and can the Twins compete there? Again, great insight and breakdown. Looking forward to more!
  2. Minny505
    Love the satire here. Looking forward to more.
  3. Minny505
    As of a couple weeks ago (I'm not going to look these all up again) Simmons was the only SS who ranks in the top 3 in the AL in SDI, OOA, DRS, and UZR. If that holds true, he has as good of a chance as anyone to win the AL SS GG and probably the front runner.
  4. Minny505
    That's fair Mike. But why, 16 starts into Ober's career and 20 starts into Dobnak's career, where they have put up very similar peripherals, is Ober seen as a guaranteed spot by so many while most want nothing to do with Dobnak? Whereas the numbers would indicate if the majority of fans think either one of them should be in the rotation next year, the majority of fans should think the same of the other. They have very similar projections at this point. If it matters, Dobnak is only 6 months older than Ober. Dobnak was dominating big leaguers while Ober, at the same age, just got promoted to AA. And don't get me wrong, I do think Ober is the better pitcher, but the difference is marginal, maybe one rung up the ladder in terms of rotation spot ceiling. Is it just recency bias?
  5. Minny505
    Shocked at all the Dobnak FUD. The man's first 15 starts in the bigs were fantastic, better than Ober. In 2021 he's screwed with and yo-yoed by management from opening day and pitches hurt. Just pretend 2021 never happened and you'll sing a very different tune. Even with the dreadful 2021, he still has career numbers comparable to Ober. That's how good he was when he had a regular role as a starter and wasn't pitching injured. For all the talk of SSS by this community being an issue with making snap judgements, it seems the majority are ready to embrace SSS outcomes as true talent when it comes to Ober and Dobnak. Why?
  6. Minny505
    Even in hindsight, I'll take Simmons over Wong...unless you think Wong would make a decent SS. Wong is a vastly superior 2B, so Wong being a league average SS might be possible. He would definitely be better than Polanco. That said, I'd rather have the 2021 version of Simmons on this team than the 2021 version of Wong. In hindsight, Semien is the only FA IF that would have been a superior option for the Twins than Simmons. I call that a front office win, even if it seems like a wash overall. BTW, Simmons is the front runner for the AL SS GG. That's kind of rad. While it's not ideal, I'd be happy with the Twins signing Simmons to another one year contract. It could be worse. They could have signed Kolten Wong.
  7. Minny505
    Quote from Article: "It’s on the bump where things go completely off the rails. The Twins are 26th in pitcher fWAR, and their 5.00 ERA is 27th in baseball. At 21.7%, they are striking out batters 23rd most across the sport, and there’s been little semblance of bright spots." It's actually amazing that they have moved this far up in the rankings of all those numbers. I guess it's why they have been a .500 ballclub over the past three months. Cuz 7 weeks into the season, they were last in MLB in most of those categories, some of them by a hole so deep I did not think it possible to move to 29th by season's end. They were not higher than 29th in any pitching category that you want to be near the top of (with the exception of BB/9), Getting into the mid-20's from the hole they dug through week 7 is an impressive feat. That's sad.
  8. Minny505
    I appreciate the aggressiveness, but look at how FA RPs fair. You're no better off, statistically speaking, filling the bullpen with $2 - $6 million FA signings than keeping guys like Gant, Stashak and others that have a decent floor and could unlock something. You can then reallocate that money you'd have to spend to fill the BP with FA signings that have a higher level of predictability and put a team on the field that is likely to win more ballgames then spending on the BP.
  9. Minny505
    Releasing Stashak has Matt Wisler, Zack Littel, and to a lesser extent, Nick Anderson, regret potential written all over it. He's at the top of the list of guys you keep if the decision comes to dropping fungible relievers vs guys like Albers, Colome, Minaya, Barraclough, Albers, Farrell, Law, Garza, and maybe even Gant or Garcia. That's 8 easy decisions before you get to Stashak. Will that be enough to protect him?
  10. Minny505
    Would not be surprised to see the Twins with 7 guys on some national 100 lists.
  11. Minny505
    Count me in the small crowd that thinks we should be keeping Simmons thru the year and consider re-signing him. He is in the top five among SS in both DRS and OOA. He is the only SS in the top five of both lists. He's a near lock to win the AL Gold Glove. I'm willing to sacrafice offense for that kind of defense at SS. Sure, I'd prefer both, but understanding payroll limitations, I'm good with it, especially when the alternative seems to be moving Polanco over. We should do what we can to help our young pitchers for the remainder of the season.
  12. Minny505
    Count me in as one who prefers the best defensive SS in MLB. I may be overvaluing SS defense, but I'll take Simmons-Polanco over Polanco-Arraez or Polanco-Gordon. I really never want to see Polanco at SS again. The downgrade on defense is quite noticeable and probably worth about 4 wins a season (roughly: Polanco -20 runs, Simmons +20 runs). That's huge and worth the drop off in offense IMHO.
  13. Minny505
    Hopefully this is a "educational moment" for Wes Johnson and the FO. The Rays way, meaning leaning into the variety of strengths of a pitching staff and acquiring as much variety as possible, seems like a better approach than trying to fit every pitcher into the same mould. The former regime also had a "fit everyone to the same mould" approach and we all got frustrated with that. I look forward to seeing how management responds to this kind of failure and myopia going forward.
  14. Minny505
    Should the Twins still be looking to add a backup CF? Ender Inciarte is available for the minimum.
  15. Minny505
    I always take pitcher minor league numbers with a huge grain of salt. There are so many controllable reasons they struggle: working on a third pitch and throwing it far more than they would in the majors working on refining mechanics focusing on grips working to get batter command in a dangerous part of the zone and so much more
  16. Minny505
    Looks like Padres are still in play. Scherzer deal is in limbo as other teams are trying to top it.
  17. Minny505
    Joe Ryan has a really good chance to be on the next published Top 100 lists. He was #98 before the 2020 season and has only improved his stock since then.
  18. Minny505
    Yup, he will not be ready next year, but with the SS FA market ahead, the Twins can likely sign a good defender for a year or two. And as you suggested, I think it would be wise to get Amaya included if possible. The bat problem might just be the move from A+ to AA, which is generally referred to as the hardest jump. Hopefully it's just an adjustment period. His glove is solid from what I read. The ACL surgery may have the Twins brass worried about Royce Lewis as a SS when he comes back and moving him to CF may be the reason the Twins offered a raw deal to Buxton. Plus, you can never have too many shortstops in the system.
  19. Minny505
    I have not watched Lux play SS so maybe it's a small sample issue, but in the 471 innings he has played SS for the Dodgers he has been a -9.5 UZR / +1 DRS / -4 OOA. Is he better than that? If not, he seems redundant with Polanco on the roster. He'd probably be in the bottom 5 defensive SS (out of the roughly 20 that play enough innings to qualify each year) in the league. Call me old fashioned, but I have really enjoyed Simmons at SS and would rather have an gold glove, no bat SS than another Polanco. I'm willing to change my mind if he can truly handle the position. I don't need a glod glover there, but I'd prefer above average.
  20. Minny505
    Good insight. Twins likely have no interest in Lux. Maybe Gonsolin, Gray, and Amaya? Can throw in Pineda for a B prospect if they need another MLB ready arm to fill out the rotation for the rest of 2021.
  21. Minny505
    Happ is happless. I'll see myself out...
  22. Minny505
    I have heard Clevinger bandied about in the rumor mill. I like that idea. I don't think the Friars will trade both Gore and Weathers in a deal. That's like the Twins trading both Duran and Jordy Blaze in one deal. That has to be for someone better than Berrios. Maybe I'm wrong? I would ask for Clev, Weathers, and Gore, but willing to accept Hassel in place of one of the MiLB pitching prospects. The Twins need to throw as many high caliber pitching prospects at the MLB wall as possible thru the rest of this year and next year to make a legit run in 2023.
  23. Minny505
    Would like opinions on this. I'm actually torn. Taking back Kiermaier (Owed $12mil in 2022, then FA) in the trade to get Joe Ryan and a top6 system pick and plug the backup CF hole that the Twins have. Tampa might be open to that to get out from under that 18%-of-their-payroll contract. What's Twins Territory think about doing something like that in fairy tale land?
  24. Minny505
    I have the same feeling. The comp pick will likely remain in place. It should. It's the penalty applied to the team that signs the FA that needs eliminating, and it probably will be. It really doesn't make any competitive sense and only suppresses FA contracts...which is, of course, why the owners, who seem hell bent on minizing the enojoyment one gets from following MLB, love it.
  25. Minny505
    It was great in the offseason when they first launched and they were updating the prospects every week based on the plethora of prospect lists getting published, along with reader/fan feedback about the teams they followed. It seems it has not gotten updated since opening day though and a lot of their prospect rankings are outdated.
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