Darius

A lot of the reasons listed to be skeptical are silly. You don’t hit 30+ HRs with 1.000 OPS, an impressive 87-42 k-BB, and 4 WAR by accident. It was offensive domination across the board. He didn’t stumble into a few HRs, like some lacy national pundits seem to think. The questions I have in regards to Garner are related to his playing time. He only had 350 ABs. That makes his numbers even more impressive on the surface, but what happens when/if that increases? His advanced age is noted above. That concerns me because he already had years of wear and tear on his body. When do the rigors or catching finally surface? I think this should be his last year behind the plate. Prior to signing Donaldson, I wanted him moved to first. If he’s as good as it appear offensively, tearing that down behind the plate right after it comes to fruition would be a tragedy. Will Garver repeat last years numbers per AB/PA? Almost certainly not. Those were borderline Barry Bonds on roids type numbers. Still, he’s the premier player at his position as it stands.

None of this information was hidden before they agreed to the trade. They clearly didn’t have the same reservations after reading everything you just listed as it was written by dozens of journalists...right there on the internet. I think that’s the part you’re missing. Their fan base basically revolted after news of the trade. They knew about the medicals all along. They didn’t hem and haw until their base got pissed. I don’t believe for a second that they actually saw something in a scan that they didn’t already know when they agreed to the trade. It was either a scam from the beginning or incompetence....neither is acceptable.

Chacin’s ERA+ in comparison to Berrios’ is surprising to me for some reason. It has me thinking that Berrios has become significantly overrated. Adding to Chacin’s impressive numbers: He’s pitched more games for the Rockies than any other team, almost exactly half of his career. (124 of 255 appearances). It doesn’t make me any more excited about his future prospects, but he’s had a nice career.

Those projections are a joke, IMO. I would bet any amount of money that his average is over .240 (let alone .230) if he puts together a significant number of healthy ABs. .230 is below his career average even when factoring in the immense struggles in his first couple of seasons. From 2017 through today, he’s been north of .250 in over 800 ABs. Last year when healthy, he showed a significant step in terms of his approach, IMO. I have no idea how you project .230 for the fastest guy in baseball coming off a 40% hard hit rate, hitting over .250 in his last 800 ABs. One of the worst and projections I’ve seen. Not that he’s ever going to light the world on fire. But, if out him somewhere in the .250 neighborhood.

Odorizzi is a pretty good pitcher when at his best. But, he’s certainly not one of the dominant upper-echelon guys. If he’s “outside of the Twins payscale,” what the heck are we even doing here?

Really? People think Cave is better than Rosario? The Rosario stat-sheet angst has gone way overboard. This highlight reel is from one month of 2019: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6EJ2IxQdvCg So many big hits. Just go back and look at all of them throughout his career. His hot streaks can single handedly carry a team for a month. Oh, and while any other Twins’ player folds like origami against the Yankees in the postseason, Rosario is hitting .313 with an 1.100+ OPS. I don’t care what some of the sabremetrics say, Rosario is a gamer. Nobody in their right mind is taking Cave over Rosario when you’re talking about a big game/big series. Give me Rosario over almost anyone with the bases juiced in the 9th inning of a playoff game.

I agree and disagree. There are a lot of instances of a players getting labeled as “injury prone” erroneously. It gets thrown around too often. But, I’m not sure that’s entirely true in regards to Buxton. Within the injury prone category there are two types. There are those who are constantly injured because of some sort of chronic structural deficiency. Then, there are those who play at such a level in terms of effort that they disregard their physical health. The two categories are in no way equivalent. The former is a lost cause. Buxton falls into the latter sub-category. If he could modify the way he played the game slightly, he would be healthy all the time. People get it wrong when they associate him with the former. But, it’s still being “injury prone” by technicality. It’s not entirely a function of bad luck (though I would argue there is also some bad luck with Buxton). His style of play leads him to be injured more than say, the style of play of an Eddie Rosario (who gets criticized endlessly). For the record, I don’t want Buxton to change the way he plays. The willingness to lay his body on the line every play is what makes him so great. What are you left with after cutting back the margins of his range? You can’t have it both ways. You can’t ask guys to only go full throttle in scenarios you feel appropriate, then lambaste them when they choose not to and you don’t agree (see Eddie Rosario reference above).

Maeda is a pretty good pitcher. But, I think we’re trying really hard to talk ourselves into him being much better than he actually is. I don’t believe the narrative that they shuffled him out to the bullpen to prevent paying a few million in bonuses. The Dodgers throw money around like parade candy. If they thought he was good/durable enough to be an anchor in their rotation, he would’ve been. They thought he was better served and more valuable to the teams chances of winning a World Series from the bullpen. I’ve seen some somewhat alarming home/road splits. The NL West, outside of the Dodgers, hasn’t exactly been filled with offensive powerhouses throughout his career. There are some ballparks in that division that do pitchers a lot of favors. Should we really be that confident that he’s going to stroll in here maintaining some of those peripherals and deliver an ERA in the 3s over 200 innings in a loaded American League? He’ll be a valuable rotation piece. But, he’s not transforming this rotation, and he’s not the “impact guy” to get this team over the hump. He adds depth. Nobody in the Yankees FO is saying, “were in trouble the Twins can counter Cole in game 1 with Maeda.” It’s not like the Dodgers are a team leaving things on the table in terms of starting pitching, either. Some seem convinced that we’ll get an extra gear out of him. They developed guys like Kenley J, Kershaw, and Buehler. They’ve gotten incredible production out of guys like Stripling (and arguably Maeda). What have we done here that makes everyone so confident? Odorizzi? Perez? A few relievers? We haven’t shown to be on the same planet as the Dodgers in terms of pitcher development. Who’s to say they didn’t maximize things, and we’ll actually get less out of him? Sounds like wishful thinking. Although I haven’t been a fan of this move from the beginning (even less so after throwing in Raley and a draft pick), I realize that it does make the team somewhat better right now. It certainly makes them a better regular season team. But, I think the optimism I’ve been seeing in terms of how transformative this move is for the World Series chances is a little over the top. At the end of the day, am I disappointed? Of course not, Donaldson and Maeda is a good offseason. But, people aren’t separating those two moves when evaluating Maeda. Getting Donaldson along with Maeda doesn’t make Maeda any more of an impact pitcher. Honestly, if it were up to me, I’d much rather have paid to acquire Donaldson and Keuchel and keep Graterol and the pick.

The upside of this lineup is wild. Adding a healthy Buxton and Josh Donaldson to last year’s lineup is filthy. Literally, the best lineup of all time. That’s not considering the multitude of DL trips from others that could potentially stay healthy all year. Polanco, Cruz, Garver, Sano, Arraez all had fairly significant IL stints that I can recall. I know Rosario had one for an ankle, don’t recall how long. I know Kepler missed a number of games late and was extremely banged up, don’t recall the length or if he ever technically hit the IL. Last year happened WITH some tough injury luck....and we added to it. It’ll be really fun to watch.

Cruz will be with the Twins in some capacity beyond the upcoming year. He’ll probably keep playing and be able to perform. May is going to have a big year and be highly sought after. As you mentioned, he’s probably gone. Not concerned about Hill in any way. Bailey might be a sneaky one here. If he puts together a solid year he may be in line for a nice short-term deal. That’ll be an interesting one to follow. I don’t know what to think of Odorizzi at this point. His history is so up and down that I could easily see him regressing.

Agreed. The Commioner’s office efforts to not allow this to stain his legacy like Selig’s was by steroids is paying dividends. A lot of apologists out there. This is right up there with Shoeless Joe and crew throwing the World Series, IMO.

The sentiment in here that the immunity was justified is hogwash. You don’t pardon capital murder to get details because you’re too sleepy to do the legwork of an investigation. Not to mention, the easiest investigation in the history of investigations. Every square inch of a baseball stadium is likely under surveillance. A guy on Twitter broke it open in an afternoon after work. Mike Fiers knew the whole story and was singing like a canary to the media. Let’s get real, here. There were motives for the immunity beyond some ancillary details, which the commissioners office had no interest in from day 1 (see the “investigations” they performed). Comparing Marwin to Polanco, Cruz, and Pineda is hogwash. The latter did their time. They paid their penance and earned their second chance. That’s how a justice system works. Marwin hasn’t earned anything. He was granted fraudulent immunity. He’s issuing fraudulent apologies at the order of the PR department. Another note on this topic: if Marwin would cheat to this degree, you don’t think he was also using PEDs intermittently in his career? Fans should issue a raucous round boos in his first home at bat at Target Field. These men are a disgrace to baseball. Villains in every sense of the word. I also think Marwin may have let a cat out of the bag a little here. His quote above: “people that were hurt by us doing this and other things.” And other things, huh? Like what? Too bad they already granted everyone on the planet immunity and we’ll never find out.

I don’t mind the strategy. It seems to be take toolsy young position players with unlimited upside early, and then target the high-upside young pitchers that fall. Seems like a pretty good way to get the best of both worlds, rather than one or the other. Since pitching is a total crap shoot, I’d rather take the hitters and minimize the risk associated with a first round high school pitcher. It’s ridiculous to bring college pitchers like Strasburg into the conversation. Clearly, if the Twins had a #1 pick and a guy like that was sitting there, they’d take him.

Why would anyone care about the money, other than team ownership? Ownership has shown repeatedly that a penny saved in one season doesn’t get allocated to the following year’s budget (not saying it should or shouldn’t, just a fact). The $10M means absolutely nothing to this year’s team or future teams. We’re basically analyzing whether a top prospect is better than nothing. If we’re going to pretend like the $10M actually means something to the future of the team, what does $10M get you on the open market? Two years of a middle reliever or a bench player? So, we’re talking about whether one would rather have a top prospect or a middle reliever? I’m sorry, but there is just no rational argument for taking the money (unless you’re an owner). It adds the least amount of value to future rosters, and it’s not even close. It’s basically wondering whether it’s better to have a lottery ticket and zero dollars....or just zero dollars.

Lost this deal.

Former Twin Kenta Maeda will be with the Dodgers this year.

I don’t know about “nightmare.” The Astros running out Verlander, Cole, Grienke was a nightmare. I think the Yankees running out Cole, Severino, Paxton is going to be a nightmare. The Nationals rotation of Sherzer, Strasburg, Corbin is a nightmare. Nobody is losing sleep over the thought of facing Jake Odorizzi for 4 2/3 innings.

Why do you have to set a precedent here? Players have historically been treated differently. Sano, for example, would’ve been jettisoned for behavior/commitment issues a long time if he wasn’t such a monster at the plate. Players get extended at different times for different sized contracts. IMO, “setting a precedent” isn’t really what’s going on here. It certainly is about the money. Let’s be honest. This team is starved for high-end pitching. Our only shot at that going forward is Berrios, at the moment. A gesture of goodwill here could’ve gone a long way, in terms of expressing commitment. Really stupid hill to die on for the FO. The funny thing is that they probably paid more in legal services, FO salaries, overhead, etc. throughout the process than they saved.

I was mostly joking. But, since we’re going down that road, Dyson came out and said something to the effect of “my shoulder has been killing me for years.” No way his medicals were 100% clean. If they were, it was fraudulent.

Why didn’t the Twins do this with Dyson?

This probably isn’t saying a whole lot, not sure. But, word is that Graterol is now the Red Sox #1 overall prospect per MLB pipeline (per Locked on Twins podcast).

“A number 3 starter on most teams” isn’t a number 3 on the shortlist of World Series contenders. The Twins don’t enter the conversation with Maeda. Again, I’m trying not to be too down on the move. But, I just can’t care about another number 3. Probably a good regular season move. Doesn’t accomplish anything in terms of playoff prospects.

This guy is not an “ace.” Flat out. You have to throw more than 150 innings to be put in that department. You have to be able to get a batter out the third time through the lineup to be put in that department. Your swing and miss stuff has to translate to sustaining an ERA under 4.00 to be put in that department. The innings being down in recent years aren’t really a positive, either, because he was worked heavily in Japan (200+ a year) before coming over. Still a ton of miles on that arm. I like Maeda in a vacuum. But, I think the hype train is a little out of control. The Dodgers didn’t think enough of him to start him in the playoffs. That says something, and that’s what the Twins really need. If we’re talking about playoff relievers, I’d rather have Graterol as a 21 year old under team control than a mediocre 30+ year old. If he’s a playoff starter, he’s not good enough to make a difference. Pineda down the stretch last year was better than Maeda, and nobody thinks Pineda is a transcendent lockdown playoff guy. Many are raving about this move a little too much (I’ve heard it referred to as a “fleecing”). I appreciate the aggression, but I’m not sure this is as big a short-term win as some are making it sound. Maeda does not get this team I’ve the hump. Still can’t beat the Yankees in October, IMO. If we’re not gathering pieces to win in October I’d rather keep the 21 year old flamethrower. In order to be in “win now” mode....there has to be some some pitchers on the staff that can be a horse in the playoffs. Overall, I’m not upset about the move. Just doesn’t move the needle. Still like the aggression and, of course, if they still target a legit playoff starter between now and July, the move looks way different.

I hate this deal. Maeda just isn’t that good. He doesn’t throw a ton of innings. He gets some Ks, but has had ERAs north of 4 in the NL 2 of the past 3 years. If we’re looking at WAR (and some other things) Pineda and Bailey we’re both better last year. This guy may not even be in the rotation if Hull gets healthy. The Dodgers thought so highly of him that they didn’t give him any playoff starts in 2019. He’s had struggles and been shuffled back and forth between the rotation and pen multiple times throughout his career. This just isn’t a needle mover, and it cost a guy who, at minimum, looked to be a dominant back end reliever at age 21, who has absolutely carved every level at which he’s spent significant time. Oh, and he’s been clocked at 104. We have enough middle of the road starters. We don’t need one of those. We need a guy who can lock down the Yankees in a playoff game. Come playoff time, we just traded one reliever for a worse reliever.

I don’t mind Bremer. I’ve been listening to him for so long now that there some nostalgia, or something, that kicks in. It was the same for me with John Gordon. It’s just not the same without him. I’m not a huge fan of Morneau or Hunter. Bert and Morris are OK, because those crusty old beer chugging pitchers are entertaining to me. If I had to choose a full timer, it would be Smalley. It probably would’ve been Hawkins up until he shared his awful takes on Mike Fiers and the cheating thing a few weeks ago.