Darius

A fairly comfy wild card lead. A rock solid rotation. Getting healthy, peaking at the right time, etc. I feel pretty darn good about this club going into September.

The Gray trade is phenomenal.

David Ortiz in a Red Sox Jersey?

I’m not sure you can really compare all college pitchers. Did they leave college at 19 or 22? Did they pitch at a high-end program or a community college in Alaska? Did they have a college program that ran them into the ground or is their “arm mileage” low? There are other factors as well. Was the guy ever good enough to make it to the majors in the first place? Where were they drafted? Obviously, there is more pressure to advance a top 5 pick than a guy drafted in an obscure late round. Who’s ahead of them in the pecking order, both minors and majors? Is the major league team competitive? Another input into the process: the developmental staff. A high end staff gets the player ready for advancement earlier. If you spend two decades teaching hitters to slap the ball into the opposite gap....of course you’re going to screw guys up (see Ortiz, David). It may look like they aren’t “ready” to advance, when really they’re being held back by poor coaching. I don’t think there’s any doubt that the previous regime advanced all players, not only college pitchers, on a different timeline than some other clubs. It’s the nature of the small vs. large market salary cap-less system (poor developmental staff aside). When you’re small, you don’t want to burn a year for a marginal role. You know you’re not resigning the guy, so you want to hold off until the player is nearest his prime as possible. A year too early hurts the team....not the player. On that note, speaking of narratives, I think this system has created one. It’s that players need lengthy periods of development. If they’re exposed too early, you’ll crack them like an egg destroying their career forever. There are parallel dimensions in which a player is a hall of famer if given adequate developmental time against 19 year olds, or a total bust if not cooked long enough. I’ve never bought any of that.

I recall hearing a story told recently (possibly from Reusse) about Puckett. Apparently, he was tearing the cover off the ball in the spring before he had his eye issue. Better than ever. The team has brought in Molitor, and it appeared as though Puckett was poised to drive him in about 150 times that year. I remember it like it was yesterday, though I was relatively young at the time. What I never knew was how well he was performing right up until the day he woke up and couldn’t see. Despite all of that, the man is a legend. On the short list of most entertaining players to watch in the history of the game, IMO.

He looks phenomenal right now, physically. He looks stronger. It could just be the angle of the clip, but his bat speed looks good. From all of the clips I’ve seen/articles I’ve read, he seems to have an heir of confidence/maturity that’s a little more pronounced than in the past. Obviously, my information is all second hand and I’m merely an amateur watching from afar. But, I’m convinced that this is guy is going to break through in a big way this year, once fully acclimated post-injury. We started to see it last year. .260, 10 HR, among the league leaders in doubles, 3 3B .825+ OPS, 46 RBI, 14 steals, etc...in almost exactly half of a season. If he does that over 145-150 games with his All-World defense, he’s a top 10-20 position player in the MLB in terms of WAR. If he improves on that, he’s up there with the Trouts and Bellingers as an 8+ win player.

I think people like to find reasons to pile on Rosario at this point. I think it’s pretty clear that the ankle injury derailed what was a huge season. People forget how good he was in the first half. This team was unbeatable when he was hitting. Also, he was the only guy who showed up in the playoffs. But, some don’t see it that, and that’s fine. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him have a career year offensively being healthy and entering his “prime seasons.” At the end of the day, it’s all hopes and opinions. I sort of see it both ways, because I’m really anxious to see what Larnach or Kirillof can do.

Yeah, I’ve lost a little respect for him. Can’t be that whiny on social media. Not productive, terrible optics. One fan tweeted something along the lines of “see you at Target Field soon.” He responds “Maybe.” Very whiny and petulant in his responses/tweets, IMO. “I get to decide what’s next...not them”, etc. I have a really hard time mustering up empathy for a guy in his position. You’re broke and got laid off from your coal mining job after breaking your back for 20 years? Gripe away. You compete with numerous other players for a lucrative last spot on a professional baseball roster, leave camp for two weeks, thus get relegated for a few weeks? Kindly, shut up, and stop expecting things handed to you.

Moncada is a hell of a player. He hit .315 with 25 HRs and an OPS over .915 OPS in 130 games last year. It’s hard to compare the players because Moncada is on a different level, IMO. Polanco and Kepler are very nice players, but I think Moncada is a legitimate MVP superstar caliber guy. I don’t think we’ll ever see better performances from Polanco and Kepler than we saw last year....and Moncada still out OPS’d both by 60-70 points while being 2-3 years younger. I’m a big fan of Moncada. I’d be thrilled with that deal. He’s going to be a pain in our rear end for the foreseeable future.

The level at which the Indians have churned out pitchers seems unprecedented. Has there been an equivalent in baseball history? From Kluber, Clevinger, Beiber, Bauer...even going back to Salazar and Carrasco who have derailed by injuries/illness....it’s pretty unreal. I look at the Twins, for example. They’ve had two guys on that level since the 90s (Santana and Berrios...could count a few months of Liriano for a third). The Indians had 4-5 guys of that caliber in the same rotation. One leaves, they replace him with another one. Remarkable. There have been better rotations, but not all developed from the same farm system. Although they clearly have a knack of developing talent, I have to think there is a ton of luck involved as well. Even with the greatest development staff on the planet, the odds of all of these guys making it through to the majors healthy has got to be microscopic. At some point, the pipeline will run dry. Everyone has to eventually supplement their pitching staff from the outside. Setting a goal of never having to do that is unrealistic.

Anything less than playing in the ALCS would be a disappointment.

A lot of dissent, but I’ve proposed this idea as well. I like it. What people are losing here is that this is an emergency scenario. It’s clearly not ideal. But, IMO, giving Celestino or Lewis a couple of weeks in the MLB is much better than giving up pitching prospects for a 4th outfielder or dumping Cave’s LH bench bat to AAA. I also don’t buy the notion that getting exposed to major league pitching ruins hitters careers. Why doesn’t it destroy these guys to see MLB pitchers in spring training or on a rehab? There is no scenario that contains alternate realities in which a player turns out like Mike Trout vs. a total bust based on whether he saw MLB pitching at age 21. The only downside is that they would be such a hinderance to the offense that it would cost the team games. I highly doubt it could be THAT bad or it would make much difference if it were. The Twins had the best record in baseball with Miguel Sano hitting nothing for the first 3 months of 2019. You just need someone that can play adequate defense in center while keeping Kepler in right.

Couldn’t disagree more. They have the reigning Cy Young winner. Zach Grienke will be just as good as anyone on the Twins rotation (expect for Berrios, IMO). McCullers has just as much upside as anyone if he’s healthy. The bottom of the rotation is every bit as good, if not better, than guys like Bailey, Dobnak, etc. Also, it can’t be discounted that the Astros have a much longer track record of getting extra out of pitchers than the Twins. From what I’ve seen, Maeda is already being vastly overrated by many folks before even throwing a pitch here. I think we saw peak Odorizzi last year. Putting too much stock into Bailey’s small sample size of improvement is kind of silly given his age and track record. Berrios has yet to show that he can get hitters out in August/September. Dobnak and Smeltzer will almost certainly regress. The optimism is great. But, we’ve been trying a little hard lately to convince ourselves/others how great this rotations is lately. A lot of best case scenarios have turned into baseline for some people. I also don’t think some random ESPN article mentioning Berrios as one of 65 possible Cy Young dark horses is evidence of anything. It keeps getting brought up as support in these articles.

Dead money is only an issue when you have ownership that imposes tight budgets and sets that as top priority. It’s only a bad thing when it’s a hinderance or opportunity cost, if you will. Nobody is excepting an owner to take a loss due to dead money, but realistically, it never gets to that point if you have competent roster management and development personnel. Dead money isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Cutting unproductive players loose despite their contract isn’t a bad thing (some of the same people applauding the Twins for managing dead money were just ridiculing them for keeping Mauer around not long ago - can’t do that while being intellectually honest). Signing marquee players to significant contract and reaping the benefits early in the contract isn’t a bad thing (we may see it with Donaldson). I’d trade a championship for a bunch of dead money in a heartbeat (the earnings in the championship season more than offset the future loss, anyway, especially when discounted to present value). Trading a highly paid player for high-end prospects and eating some of the contract to facilitate a rebuild isn’t a bad thing. When actually thinking about dead money, there are actually many more benefits in terms of a teams performance than negatives. As mentioned above, dead money may actually make you more money (negating the term “dead money” when netted against revenues). As everyone knows, there is no salary cap in this game. The only thing that $0 in dead money is demonstrating is that you don’t award good players big contracts and go after safe profits over championships, which is an awful thing...,and frankly a slap in the face for fans. See Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland Athletics, Minnesota Twins and others who have a couple of nice years occasionally, only to get throttled by big spenders in the playoffs, offset by decade long rebuilds. This is spun in a very Polad Pocket Protector-esque manor. Nobody, except the Poland’s accountant, should really give a rip about dead money. In fact, fans should welcome it as a sign of aggressive ownership/management that puts high value on winning (in the majority of cases).

With Severino going down, and the Astros losing Cole (and their ability to cheat) it’s close. I’m still not sure the horses are there at the front end of the rotation to be considered the best, though. I think a lot of people are getting a little cocky about the Twins this year, and it’s dangerous. There are some things that make me a little nervous: The starting staff is deeper, but there’s reason for apprehension there. Berrios has a track record of wearing down. Odorizzi has a track record of inconsistency. Maeda hasn’t endured a heavy workload since he came from Japan. Hill may not get healthy. Bailey is a question mark. Pineda is one drug test away from being gone, and has had injury issues in the past. The young guys (Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe) could struggle. On the offensive side, there are numerous some regression candidates (Garver, Arraez, Cruz, Polanco, and Kepler could all regress, some combination of them almost certainly will). There are guys with significant injury histories (Buxton, Sano). There are guys who are getting advanced in age (Donaldson, Cruz). I think the potential to be great is there...but so is the potential for catastrophe (a little more than the Yanks/Astros). Maybe it’s just paranoia and lifetime of Minnesota sports wearing me down.

For a team that has huge hurdles to clear in order to compete on the open market for a decent #2 Zach Wheeler type, let alone an ace caliber pitcher, trading starting pitching prospects for outfield depth would be a head scratcher, IMO. If you can’t buy pitching, you have to develop it, which is a numbers game. I think there are some guys that can step into CF in an emergency. Celestino will be a AA guy. We’ve long heard about Royce Lewis’ potential to land in center field (Polanco isn’t going anywhere with Arraez and entrenched at 2B). I don’t see how it’s more beneficial to lose a pitching prospect all together instead of starting the clock on some guys like that. Very creative idea. I love trade scenarios. Could work out wonderfully and look like a steal down the road. I just have a hard time dealing pitching prospects if we’re not getting a pitcher, or a “impact” starting position player in return.

I think some people forget how young Buxton still is. Some were ready to give up on this guy way too early. I think he’s going to have a big year and finally prove a lot of people wrong.

Yeah....60 degrees is not “cold.” If that’s getting brought up as adverse conditions “beyond control,” like it was some kind of natural disaster....you soft. No matter where you’re from.

A lot of the reasons listed to be skeptical are silly. You don’t hit 30+ HRs with 1.000 OPS, an impressive 87-42 k-BB, and 4 WAR by accident. It was offensive domination across the board. He didn’t stumble into a few HRs, like some lacy national pundits seem to think. The questions I have in regards to Garner are related to his playing time. He only had 350 ABs. That makes his numbers even more impressive on the surface, but what happens when/if that increases? His advanced age is noted above. That concerns me because he already had years of wear and tear on his body. When do the rigors or catching finally surface? I think this should be his last year behind the plate. Prior to signing Donaldson, I wanted him moved to first. If he’s as good as it appear offensively, tearing that down behind the plate right after it comes to fruition would be a tragedy. Will Garver repeat last years numbers per AB/PA? Almost certainly not. Those were borderline Barry Bonds on roids type numbers. Still, he’s the premier player at his position as it stands.

None of this information was hidden before they agreed to the trade. They clearly didn’t have the same reservations after reading everything you just listed as it was written by dozens of journalists...right there on the internet. I think that’s the part you’re missing. Their fan base basically revolted after news of the trade. They knew about the medicals all along. They didn’t hem and haw until their base got pissed. I don’t believe for a second that they actually saw something in a scan that they didn’t already know when they agreed to the trade. It was either a scam from the beginning or incompetence....neither is acceptable.

Chacin’s ERA+ in comparison to Berrios’ is surprising to me for some reason. It has me thinking that Berrios has become significantly overrated. Adding to Chacin’s impressive numbers: He’s pitched more games for the Rockies than any other team, almost exactly half of his career. (124 of 255 appearances). It doesn’t make me any more excited about his future prospects, but he’s had a nice career.

Those projections are a joke, IMO. I would bet any amount of money that his average is over .240 (let alone .230) if he puts together a significant number of healthy ABs. .230 is below his career average even when factoring in the immense struggles in his first couple of seasons. From 2017 through today, he’s been north of .250 in over 800 ABs. Last year when healthy, he showed a significant step in terms of his approach, IMO. I have no idea how you project .230 for the fastest guy in baseball coming off a 40% hard hit rate, hitting over .250 in his last 800 ABs. One of the worst and projections I’ve seen. Not that he’s ever going to light the world on fire. But, if out him somewhere in the .250 neighborhood.

Odorizzi is a pretty good pitcher when at his best. But, he’s certainly not one of the dominant upper-echelon guys. If he’s “outside of the Twins payscale,” what the heck are we even doing here?

Really? People think Cave is better than Rosario? The Rosario stat-sheet angst has gone way overboard. This highlight reel is from one month of 2019: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6EJ2IxQdvCg So many big hits. Just go back and look at all of them throughout his career. His hot streaks can single handedly carry a team for a month. Oh, and while any other Twins’ player folds like origami against the Yankees in the postseason, Rosario is hitting .313 with an 1.100+ OPS. I don’t care what some of the sabremetrics say, Rosario is a gamer. Nobody in their right mind is taking Cave over Rosario when you’re talking about a big game/big series. Give me Rosario over almost anyone with the bases juiced in the 9th inning of a playoff game.

I agree and disagree. There are a lot of instances of a players getting labeled as “injury prone” erroneously. It gets thrown around too often. But, I’m not sure that’s entirely true in regards to Buxton. Within the injury prone category there are two types. There are those who are constantly injured because of some sort of chronic structural deficiency. Then, there are those who play at such a level in terms of effort that they disregard their physical health. The two categories are in no way equivalent. The former is a lost cause. Buxton falls into the latter sub-category. If he could modify the way he played the game slightly, he would be healthy all the time. People get it wrong when they associate him with the former. But, it’s still being “injury prone” by technicality. It’s not entirely a function of bad luck (though I would argue there is also some bad luck with Buxton). His style of play leads him to be injured more than say, the style of play of an Eddie Rosario (who gets criticized endlessly). For the record, I don’t want Buxton to change the way he plays. The willingness to lay his body on the line every play is what makes him so great. What are you left with after cutting back the margins of his range? You can’t have it both ways. You can’t ask guys to only go full throttle in scenarios you feel appropriate, then lambaste them when they choose not to and you don’t agree (see Eddie Rosario reference above).