Darius

Is this supposed to be a ringing endorsement?

Maeda was phenomenal. Can’t argue him as MVP. Personally, I think Buxton is the most valuable player (lowercase) on this team, but Maeda’s performance and Buxton’s missed time give the award to Maeda. If Buxton could ever play a full season and hit the way he did, he’s the league MVP. It’s a little disappointing he couldn’t stay healthy again, he clearly dialed it down a notch in center (which I’ve always been against) and still got hurt. No disrespect intended to Cruz, he’s clearly the emotional leader of the team and he had a great year (historic for his age). He probably wins team MVP on 25+ other teams. He just ran into a generationally good center fielder and one of the best (partial) seasons from a pitcher in Twins’ history.

You can’t have the “human factor” without bias. It’s basically a fundamental law like gravity. Bias and error are the only two components of the “human factor” that differentiate it from a computer. There isn’t a human being walking the planet right now, or ever, that is free from bias.

Yes he’s right. We can find ruins buried in the jungle that are tens of thousands of years old from space. There are cars driving around by themselves as we speak. Most of you are probably wearing a watch that can tell you the oxygen levels in your blood. There’s no reason to sit and watch these umps butcher games anymore. Also, it’s kind of talking out of both sides of your mouth if you’re a purist that needs people umping, but gets bent out of shape about people arguing calls and getting into it with the ump. Lou Pinella, George Brett, etc. That’s as much a part of “old school” baseball as anything.

I think it’s burns me more that the Astros are in the ALCS than the Twins aren’t. They shouldn’t even be in the playoffs. They got to play the hapless Twins and the overrated As without their best player. Must be nice to have good luck raining from the sky on you even when you do your damndest to screw things up.

I don’t see them trading significant prospects or going after any big names. I don’t think the glut of offensive talent is as great as some think....there are significant past and current injury/age issues at nearly every position. Donaldson and Buxton are the obvious ones. Polanco has been dealing with ankle issues since the second half of 2019. Arraez knee issues. Rosario and Kepler have both missed significant time or had their performance affected in in 2019-2020. Garver has struggled with injuries in 2019-2020 (if he’s even a good player remains to be seen). Cruz is nearing the mid-century mark. If you start dealing guys, especially our MLB ready hitters, things could get ugly next year (like, starting Jake Cave in centerfield ugly....which has happened in both 2019 and 2020). The real killer here to this path is Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, etc. getting no real game action in 2020. As an opposing GM, I’d have a hard time looking back two years for their most recent live AB. If I’m the Twins, I have a hard time dealing a known commodity to plug in Larnach or Lewis (After seeing Kirilloff in the playoffs, I’d be OK with him). For those reasons I have a shed time seeing them moving significant offensive pieces (other than Rosario). Also, contenders on a budget don’t trade away quality cost controlled players. Alll that said, I think are a number of free agents I wouldn’t mind taking a flier on. A guy like Stroman is intriguing. I see them going a route like that. They’re just not bringing on significant salary at this point. You still possibly have Duran ready. I’m fine rolling with Dobnak in the 5 hole.

Because they just threw everything they had at this season. Spent money like they never have before. Traded a top pitching prospect for a starting pitcher. Things they’ve historically never done. They still got their rear ends kicked out of the playoffs. It wasn’t even close. I’ll be shocked if they make any significant moves to supplement this roster, especially if Cruz returns. I’d be surprised if Nelson Cruz keeps hitting at this pace. Father Time is undefeated. No reasonably competent position player on the roster can stay healthy. I don’t agree that you can “teach” these players to show up in the playoffs. That’s just determination and fortitude. It’s inside you, and you have it or you don’t. It has nothing to with baseball skills, they’re clearly good baseball players, but they fold when it matters. It doesn’t make them bad people, they’re just not going to win a championship as a group....and that’s the whole point of this thing. Why keep wasting time. Life is short. I’m guessing most of us already suffered through the ‘01-‘10. I don’t want to watch a middling team get crushed in the playoffs for 8 more years, then suffer through another 5 year rebuild before finally arriving at another opportunity to repeat the process. Get to work now.

Well, you can cherry pick a stat like that, quote it as gospel, and be baffled all you want. Doesn’t make it reality. Why 3 years? He’s played significant time since 2016. In which, he’s OPS’d over .750 twice, one of those being .760 in 2020. Career OPS of .763. For reference, Jacque Jones has a career OPS of .775. I don’t think anyone has ever compared Jacque Jones (a good defensive outfielder) to Mookie Betts or thought he’d bring back a haul of prospects. The 2019 season could be seen as similar to Mauer’s power binge in his MVP year that was never replicated - not even close - which created a slugging percentage for Kepler that is nearly 100 points higher than he’s produced in any of his other 4 seasons seasons with significant playing time. Kepler has never hit more than 20 HRs in any other season, and was on pace to end up in the 20-25 range again this year over a full schedule. If you want to think the 2019 Max Kepler is the real Max Kepler, that’s just a hope or wish (which there is nothing wrong with, but certainly shouldn’t be lecturing others with one cherry picked stat in that case). In reality, that could/should be seen as a statistical outlier and removed from the population to arrive at the true probable outcome going forward. There is zero hard evidence to suggest it’ll be repeated, or the norm, going forward. I just don’t see anyone giving a haul for one above average offensive season (and by haul, I mean high-end pitching prospects a year or two out - I’m not sure how returning a couple of more position player prospects, or 17 years olds, would help anything). The defense can’t be argued, but who in their right mind is paying a premium for right field defense? That’s the major driver behind his bWAR. Also, throwing him in the conversation with Judge and Betts over the last three years is a little liberal. Without the time to research, I would guess Betts doubled up Kepler in bWAR. Judge is probably significantly higher, even with a bunch of time missed for injury. Could they get a decent return? Sure. But I don’t think they’d get anywhere in the neighborhood of what it seems like you’re assuming. Kepler is a good player. The shared German connections make him one of my favorite players of all time. He is by no means a superstar. He’s not even our best outfielder (Buxton, and one could argue Rosario has been much more consistent offensively with a career OPS more than 20 points higher). The condescending attitude of thinking anyone who disagrees with you must just be “presuming” while you’re bringing the science should be reconsidered.

Yeah, the funny part here is that we’d never in that situation. If we were, I have no doubt that some crusty old ball guy like Reusse would write a scathing piece. Baldelli would’ve pulled Kershaw after 3 1/3 for whichever bullpen pitcher that had the highest OPS allowed over the past couple of month. Then, defensive subbed in Adrianza somewhere, who would inevitably come up with the bases loaded and nobody out the next inning and start a double play from pitcher to catcher to first. We would’ve been down 5-1 by the time the 8th rolled around.

I’m not as infatuated with Wade as some. I’ll take upside over a high floor any day. The walks are nice, but there’s some missing context there. How valuable is walking vs. more XBHs if he’s hitting in the 7 hole front of a guy Adrianza?

I like the concept of shifting, but it sure does seem to hurt teams a higher rate than the analysts will tell you it should. I have no numbers, just a feeling I get since it became “the thing.” Is that reality, I don’t know (I also recall a ton of outs made by the shortstop on balls up the middle that were base hits for 100 years prior). I’d love to see an actual comparison. What did the spray charts say the outcome should be vs. the actual outcome on every shift by every team over a season? It would also be interesting to see what percentage of failures were because the pitcher didn’t locate properly (example, shifting a player to pull then missing with a fastball on the outer half intended for inner half, etc.). I would guess the problem, if any, lies in statisticians not following their own principles in terms of sample sizes and regression to the mean. How many points of data does it take to get to the true long-term trend for a hitter? Sure don’t want that regression to the mean striking in a playoff game.

I’m torn on the subject. On one hand, he has been great here. He’s clearly a positive influence. His numbers have been phenomenal. He’s fun to watch. He’s, by all accounts, a great guy. On the other, as great as he’s been, we’re still being swept out of the playoffs and humiliated with him in the lineup. You know what they say about trying the same thing repeatedly hoping for a different result. I also don’t think regression is a going to deliberate process. One day, he’s going to wake up and the bat/hand-eye will be just a tick slower. Thats all it takes to go from premier power hitter to detrimental. Honestly, I’d be fine either way. At this point, I can’t be convinced that this roster is making a serious push for a title any time soon, with or without Cruz.

People aren’t frustrated that they didn’t repeat the historic home run numbers. People are pissed that this team can’t win a big game. People are sick of the FOs (two FOs) half-assery dating back to 2001, and a manager who thinks he’s analytically cute I still can’t figure how anyone on earth can think pulling Jose Berrios at 5 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 R and 75 for Cody freaking Stashak and Kenta Maeda in the middle of 2H shutout in a playoff game is a good idea (but, he’ll let Maeda throw 200 pitches ina meaningless regular season game for a good story). Or, pinch running a visibly ill Byron Buxton to lay in the middle of infield. Or, pinch hitting for Ryan Jeffers with Mitch Garver, who is worse both offensively and defensively. Or, playing Alex Kirilloff in an elimination playoff game, but not giving him a single regular season AB (thanks for that, FO, hope that service time comes in handy when we suck 5 years from now). Or, batting a visibly hobbled and powerless Luis Arraez in the leadoff spot to go 0 for everything. Or, handing Rogers and Romo the ball in the 9th in back to back games after being awful for an extended period of time, but not getting Clippard an inning? The list goes on. When are we going to admit Baldelli sucks, and people only want him to be good because he’s a poor man’s Bill Walton? Remember when people were running Molitor out of town? I don’t recall his list of absurd managerial decisions being even close to Baldelli’s. Play your best players. Pitch your best pitchers. Stop thinking you’re smarter than the 130 years of the game because an intern with a graphing calculator showed you a graph and a number with a lot of decimal places. Analytics have their place, but throw those damn reports and cute suggestions out the window come playoff time. If this club could avoid crapping the bed in every big game it plays, I don’t think anyone would care if it were done by walks and bunt singles. People are sick of this spineless, “oh well, we’ll get ‘em next year” approach.

I agree with the poster above on Baldelli’s pitching staff management. If he’s going to continue to inexplicably pull effective starting pitchers after 75 pitches, you need a better bullpen. Rogers has been awful for over a year now. Romo needs to go unless he’ll accept a low leverage role. May will likely be gone. You need someone other than Duffey that you can count on to get big outs. I don’t think this conversation really means a whole lot at this point. It’s clear this team doesn’t have the horses for a playoff run. Not even close, despite the BS Baldelli is trying to inject. Nobody can stay healthy. Nobody has the fortitude to collect a clutch hit in a big game. I don’t fault them for going after Donaldson, but that contract is now an albatross. We basically just offered two years of on the job training to Baldelli while we burned an elite roster. We hired not 1, but 2, baseball “geniuses” for the front office. Why are they considered that, exactly? Where’s the difference vs. Terry Ryan? They’re just starting to sound like a magic 8-ball of trendy analytical/corporate cliches at this point. Slightly different path. Exact same result. What do I want? Stop half-assing things. If you’re saying you’re going all-in, go all-in. If you are even considering a half-step back payroll-wise, blow it up. Trade anything of value and play Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, etc. The last thing I want is a repeat of the 00s, which I fear is the inevitable result here. They’ll never spend enough to get over the top. They’ll never blow it up and suffer through empty ballparks for three years. If you haven’t gathered, I’m sort of unhappy with this club right now. I’m at the point where I’m ready to bring in a real, hard-ass baseball manager who isn’t afraid to tell his players the truth. I’m very close to calling for the FO to ditch this New-Age feelings experiment with Baldelli. Everyone loves to make excuses for him (yes it’s his fault if the lineup doesn’t produce....find a combination that can), but I put the playoff failure of the last two years squarely on him. They may be the worst managed playoff series I’ve ever seen.

There are variables in the equation left out that make it much more likely to have this historically incompetent run. 1). The budget. Until the Donaldson signing this year, the team has really never signed a significant free agent. 2). Prospect hoarding. Until this year the team has never made a significant trade. 1 and 2 above consistently put this team behind the 8-ball against teams that legitimately supplement their rosters. They’ve never had a chance against a team like the Yankees in the playoffs. 3). Awful management. Until recently, they’ve been lagging behind in analytics. Now that they’ve caught up in that department, they have a manager that routinely makes awful decisions in game. The litany of low baseball IQ plays in that one two game series was off the charts. That’s a reflection of poor coaching. Outside of the game, he holds nobody accountable. His lazy (yes, I’m calling lazy) approach has been lauded around here as a contributing factor to this teams success. It’s actually holding them back, IMO. When you run things as poorly as this club historically has, every game isn’t a 50/50 proposition, which is how you’re calculating the odds. In reality, these series were all over well before they started. Surprising that they haven’t lucked into a win? Maybe. Surprising that they’ve been this historically incompetent? Nope. All of the people who have been on the Pohlads case were called unintelligent by the “enlightened” fans. It’s becoming clear which side has the most firm grip on reality.

My thoughts: Baldelli doesn’t get enough of the blame. The guy is lauded at every turn. When things go poorly, excuses are made for him. IMO, the guy hasn’t been a very good manager here. He’s been handed an elite MLB team, with which anyone could succeed and he’s done nothing. Until he proves something, I’m out of the camp that approves of his style. His teams show no urgency and clearly can’t handle big situations. It’s embarrassing the way this team fold like a card table in these playoffs game. They’re scared little boys. Also, how can Romo blowing the series surprise anyone? Aside from a short stretch with Rays, he’s been mediocre since he left the giants. It’s clear watching him that he’s been walking a tightrope for some time now. He’s been downright bad since running his mouth at the Indians. That’s said, I don’t blame Romo. I have to put it in Baldelli for either 1) Not seeing the obvious, or 2) Being afraid to tell Romo he’s not getting the 8th-9th innings of a tight playoff game anymore. Same goes for Rogers. He’s been bad for a significant period of time now. But, he got 2 huge innings in the series (while Wilser got none). I feel like I just watched the most poorly managed playoff series in the history of the MLB playoffs.

Who cares? Honestly? The best story this sorry franchise can muster from another playoff disaster is a mediocre pitcher blubbering on a mound of his 3rd MLB team?

There’s nowhere to go. The team we see is done. The window was never open, like we thought. With Cruz likely not coming back, Garver and Polanco from MVP caliber to afterthoughts, Rosario gone, May gone, Buxton and Donaldson forever getting owies and not playing huge games, etc....this thing is over for a number of years....again.

And the final nail is a Falvine screw up. Closed out of the playoffs by a guy they traded away while our bullpen blows the series.

I’ve never seen a team with so much talent, but so little baseball IQ and fortitude. These guys are jokes.

Because Baldelli is incompetent. But, hey, at least everyone is loose because he’s so laid back and milquetoast.

This team’s softness is a reflection of its leadership. I’m at the point where I’m wondering what these people always fawning over Baldelli are looking at? He’s handed a superteam, and they’ve done is folded in every meaningful scenario presented. It’s time to quit blaming this on guys like Eddie Rosario.

The manager is supposed to be the sports psychologist. That’s literally his only job.

This team is the most gutless, incompetent group of “good” baseball players in the MLB. Every big spot is piddled down their leg. Constant mental errors. Swinging at ball 4 2 feet out of the zone and getting picked off of first in the 8th inning of a one run playoff game. I give up on this team.

A guy getting his first major league AB with the bases juiced in a playoff game is just another management/FO breakdown, IMO. Why the heck wouldn’t you get the kid some ABs during the regular season if you’re going to use him over Jake Cave in the biggest game of the year?