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Mike Frasier Law

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Everything posted by Mike Frasier Law

  1. Eddie is being overshadowed by Sano, but by any measure, he is having one hell of a rookie season. By WAR, he is having the 10th best rookie season for a Twin since 2000. It's a mix of names ahead of him, including Mauer leading the way, followed closely by a 27 year old Lew Ford. His 14 triples is tied for the most by a rookie since Jeff Heath hit 18 in 1938 and DiMaggio hit 15 in 1936. Pretty cool.
  2. That's fascinating. In an environment of suppressed offense, I was surprised to see how well this team ranked. Obviously, home runs aren't everything.
  3. I noticed yesterday that we had a lineup of 7 players with 10+ home runs. If Mauer hits 2 more this year, we will be able to field a team where every position but catcher has hit 10+. I wonder when the last time a Twins team did that. Has a Twins team ever fielded 9 players with 10+? Who here can figure this out?
  4. I think it's a combination of bad luck and imperfect performance. His peripherals the last 30 days show a mixed bag: 7.36 k/9 (above league average of 7.29 and something he can control) 3.27 bb/9 (above league average of 2.65 and something he can control) .352 babib (above league average of .296 and his career average of .297; probably mostly luck that it's high) 53.1% left on base (well below league average of 72.4% and his career average of 68.8%; probably mostly luck that it's high) 14.7 hr/fb (above league average of 11.4% and his career average of 10.9%; probably flukey) 48.1% gb (above league average of 45.3% but below career average of 53.1%) 30% hard hit. (above league average of 29% and his career average of 27.4%) In short, the vast majority of what he can control is still looking good, except for the walks. If he continues to strike out more than 7 k/9 with a gb% above 50%, he should be a top 50 pitcher. That's a #2 starter.
  5. True, but he does have a career BABIP of nearly .350. Heck, in 2013 his BABIP was .383 for the season. So I would expect that to go down some, but not to .300 or anything.
  6. 285/360/400. I blame the twins (not the Twins). He probably just isn't sleeping because he has two baby girls at home.
  7. Dozier has a higher BA (226) than OBP (219). I had to think long and hard about how that was possible.
  8. He got slapped around a lot this spring. Might be a few crooked numbers today.
  9. OK. Mauer's had some huge years and some very bad years. Heck, in 2011, he was BELOW AVERAGE!!! (99 wRC+). He's obviously past his age peak, but he's not 40. I'm gonna go with his career line for 2015: 319/401/459. Interesting tidbit - even though he increased his k rates the last few years, over his career he has walked more than he has struck out. Just sayin'
  10. Only approximately 30% of pitchers who had TJ pitched more than 200 innings after the surgery. It's closer to 20% that pitched more than 350 innings. For the age group of 16-23, fewer than 50% pitched more than 250 innings after surgery. That may somewhat reflect the mediocre pitchers not making it back, but I don't think you are going to argue that only 20% of pitchers who had TJ were bad to begin with. I do think it would be interesting to see the overall return rate of pitchers, but I'm not smart enough to figure out how to do that.
  11. That's not exactly right. In fact, they broke it down by age group. For pitchers who were 16-23 when getting TJ, they averaged 221 innings pitched after surgery. That's one good year. For 24-27, they averaged 137 innings after surgery. It is skewed somewhat by age, but even the youngest pitchers weren't likely to come back and have long careers. You are right that it doesn't address the R&R rate, though.
  12. In a timely coincidence, The Hardball Times just published an article on the return rate of pitchers from TJ. http://www.hardballtimes.com/tommy-john-surgery-success-rates-in-the-majors/ It goes into much more depth about the recovery rates - how long it took for recovery, how many games and innings pitched after surgery, etc. We hear 80% recovery rate, but that means the pitcher comes back to pitch 1 inning. Here's one quote in summary: "The most recent data suggest that one out of two major league pitchers who has Tommy John surgery will throw fewer than 100 innings the rest of his big league career." So even if R&R has a low success rate, it may be better than guaranteeing missing 1-2 seasons and only having a coin flip chance to ever contribute meaningfully again.
  13. It's not narcissism if it's true, right? Pro tip: create two accounts so you can like all of your own comments.
  14. I have been called a Santana hater because I don't think its remotely possible he will repeat last year. That being said, I think there's another reason to believe his BABIP will not regress quite as much as people expect in addition to his speed. Parker points to his speed and hints at his ability to control the bat through bunting. In addition, Santana's line drive rate last year was 26%. That's pretty amazing. The league leader (among qualified batters) was Freddie Freeman at 26.7%. He had a BABIP of .338. Here's why that is awesome. In 2014, here are the results of balls put in play by batted ball type: Type Average ISO GB .239 .020 LD .685 .190 FB .207 .378 2014 Stats: LD% GB% FB% League 20.8% 44.8% 34.4% Santana 26% 45.9% 28.1% Because of his speed, he's turning the ground balls into singles. And because he's hitting more line drives than nearly anyone else, his batting average (and BABIP) should not regress to league average.
  15. I've always been persuaded by the argument that you should use your best bullpen arm in the highest leverage situation. The strongest argument I've heard against it is that it messes with the pitchers' heads: they want to know what to expect and being thrown into a different situation messes with their confidence. I'm so happy to hear that Molitor went to Perkins to ask how he felt. First, it shows he is seriously considering it. Second, now Molitor knows Perkins will pitch whenever Molitor asks and understands it's about winning games, not collecting saves. Man, I hope Molitor actually does this. I think it's one strategic advantage the Twins could have over most other teams, and we need every one we can get.
  16. Thanks for this. I'm very glad the world has low expectations of the Twins. Vegas has them at 68.5 wins, and I think that's just crazy. Here's something I don't understand though. I'm looking at Fangraphs projections, and it sees a significant improvement in our pitching for 2015. 4.45 runs allowed per game, down from 4.80 last year. But for some reason, the projections expect the Twins to score way fewer runs: 4.05 instead of 4.41 from last year. I'm not sure why. Even so, with those projected stats, our pythagorean record would be 74/88. If we score as many runs as last year (4.41 per game) but pitch as well as they expect (4.45 runs allowed per game) that is a 500 team.
  17. I'm buying. I was buying last year, but I underestimated the lingering effects of his 2013 injuries. Looking at his 1st half v. 2nd half splits, it looks like he started moving to his old self: Career: 319/401/459/860 with 12.1% bb rate and 131 wRC+ (100 is league average offensively) 2014 1st half: 271/342/353/695 10.0% bb rate and 96 wRC+ 2014 2nd half: 289/397/408/805 14.5% bb rate 125 wRC+ Side note: I like wRC+ because of its simplicity. Benefits: it measures value actually created offensively and situationally. It controls for park factors and league effects, so you can compare different years. It is also easy to understand because 100 is average, 110 is 10% above average, etc. Downside is that it does not adjust for position. So the fact that Mauer hit 31% above average over his career is pretty amazing. The fact that he did it playing catcher is astounding. Last year, 17 1b were 100 wRC+ or greater. Only 4 catchers did so, one of whom was Suzuki at 107.
  18. Let's pretend Nolasco bounces back, Santana pitches reasonably well, Gibson and Hughes do what they did last year. And let's say Meyer, May, and Milone all demonstrate they need to be in a major league rotation. Do the Twins make a trade this summer? If so, who goes?
  19. Santana walked 4.4% of the time. Kennys Vargas walked 5.1% of the time. Arcia walked 7.6%. Not the leadoff guy I want. I think Santana is a legitimate major leaguer. But his 353 OBP was driven ENTIRELY by his BABIP.
  20. I'd like to see this Mauer Dozier Hunter Arcia Plouffe Vargas Pinto Santana Hicks
  21. Hicks and May. Seriously. OK, that's my long shot bet. Arcia and Hughes
  22. August 19. Day game in yankee stadium. Not much room to roam there anyway.
  23. I think your predictions are overall pessimistic, but not crazy. If I had to completely fabricate numbers (and I feel a moral imperative to do so), I'd say your prediction looks like a 71 win season and I think there's a 75% chance the Twins outperform your predictions. So, in the interest of keeping TD fair and balanced, I'm going to make predictions that are 75% likely to be an overestimate (in my totally scientific, not at all made-up, way). Twins win 88 games. Mauer plays above-average defense, hits .330/.402/.450 and plays 150 games Dozier is a top-5 2b (again). solid defense, 20 hr, 20 sb, 35 2b. Plouffe has average defense, hits 11 hr, bats .255, gets traded July 15 and Sano takes over. Sano makes some embarassing defensive gaffes, but hits the ball farther than Thome ever did. Hits 22 hr in the second half. OBP over .330 Santana plays adequate SS defensively. Hits .280/315/385 and steals 25 bases. Hunter decides to retire during spring training. Arcia hits 275/340/500 with 30 hr. Bad defense. Hicks starts in CF and moves to LF June 15 when Buxton comes up. Hicks hits .245/375/400. Steals 12 bases and hits 12 home runs. Buxton comes up June 15 and takes over CF. Starts off slowly, but plays stellar defense from the start. By mid July, he gets his groove. From July 15 to the end of the year, he hits 295/380/450, steals 20 bases and hits 10 hr. Does NOT get injured. Suzuki is only bad (not awful) behind the plate, but Pinto's bat starts hot and forces the issue. Pinto takes over as primary with Suzuki as backup/mentor. Pinto hits 250/330/410 with 18 hr, still sucks at catching. Vargas hits 275/330/450 with 25 hr and lots of ks. The rotation is a different beast with good outfield defense behind it. Hughes leads the way, pitching 210 innings, striking out nearly 8 batters per 9, walking less than 1.5 per 9. ERA at a solid 3.75 Santana also hits the 200 IP threshold. ERA at 3.88, 7.4 k/9 2.2 bb/9. Nolasco pitches 185 innings. 4.25 ERA (first time in his career with a solid defense allows him to pitch closer to his peripherals). 6.5 k/9 and 2.1 bb/9. Gibson pitches 175 innings to a 4.3 ERA. his ground ball rate is the 2nd best in the league at 57%, and his k/9 rate is a career best...5.8 Milone loses his plane ticket to spring training, never finds his way to Minneapolis. May pitches the entire year in the rotation. 170 IP. ERA at 4.4, but strikes out 10 per 9 innings. Meyer starts in AAA. Gets control of his BB and comes up in June. Pitches out of the bullpen and is scary good. Pitches 135 innings without any significant health concerns. ...... Ok, maybe that's a little more optimistic than I suggested. But that's what January's for, right?
  24. That's interesting. Nunez is a better* hitter. But Punto's defensive value has been so high as to more than account for his negative hitting prowess. I'm sure there's an argument to be mad that Nunez is on his way up while Punto is on his way down, but I don't think Nunez is getting any better. As a back-up, I think I'd prefer Punto. *better =/= good. It's just that Punto has been baaaad.
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