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Mike Frasier Law

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Everything posted by Mike Frasier Law

  1. Mike Frasier Law
    It seems to me that the annual cost of this extension is nominal. If his arm fall off next year, this contract is not going to affect the Twins' ability to compete at all. On the flip side, "proven closers" are very expensive. I'm not contending they are worth it, but the value of a closer is what the market will bear. For example, Joe Nathan's salary from 2007-2013 was: $5.25m, $6m, $11.25m, 11.25m, 7m, 7m (missing all of 2010). Perkins is only guaranteed on average $5.37m. The biggest risk is that his arm falls off, and that's not too much money to eat. But if he stays nearly as effective as he was in 2013, it's a significant bargain.
  2. Mike Frasier Law
    Arizona Diamondbacks - 80.5 over Atlanta Braves - 87.5 under Baltimore Orioles - 80.5 over Boston Red Sox - 87.5 over Chicago Cubs - - 69.5 under Chicago White Sox - 75.5 under Cincinnati Reds - 84.5 over Cleveland Indians - 80.5 under Colorado Rockies - 76.5 over Detroit Tigers - 89.5 over Houston Astros - 62.5 under Kansas City Royals - 81.5 under Los Angeles Angels - 86.5 over Los Angeles Dodgers - 92.5 under Miami Marlins - 69.5 under Milwaukee Brewers - 79.5 over Minnesota Twins - 70.5 over New York Mets - 73.5 over New York Yankees - 86.5 over Oakland Athletics - 88.5 under Philadelphia Phillies - 76.5 under Pittsburgh Pirates - 83.5 over San Diego Padres - 78.5 under San Francisco Giants - 86.5 over Seattle Mariners - 81.5 over St. Louis Cardinals - 90.5 over Tampa Bay Rays - 88.5 under Texas Rangers - 86.5 over Toronto Blue Jays - 79.5 over Washington Nationals - 88.5 under Tie breaker: The two AL WC teams will be: NYY and OAK Tie breaker 2: The two NL WC teams will be: SFG and ATL
  3. Mike Frasier Law
    Sano's elbow is barking again. http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/28/miguel-sano-to-have-elbow-examined-after-more-soreness/ Should I be scared?
  4. Mike Frasier Law
    My first thought was that Suzuki's offensive numbers couldn't be much, if any, better than our other alternatives. Then I looked at how atrocious our catchers have been offensively, aside from Mauer, Doumit, and Pinto. Suzuki is below league average, but within spitting distance (89wRC+, where 100 is league average). In comparison, from 2010 through 2013, Jose Morales was 53, Hermann was 58, and Butera was 33. Yikes. Butera's slash line over those three years: .182, .230, .263. That's right, OPS below 500.
  5. Mike Frasier Law
    I imagine most of you have seen/read this series on Fangraphs, but I think it's relevant to the discussion: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-seasons-five-worst-called-balls/ I think the value of pitch framing is absolutely up for debate. Whether it has an impact at all, on the other hand, seems to me to be a resolved question.
  6. Mike Frasier Law
    Wow! Lots of interesting feedback. I do agree that this is the type of stat that is dangerous (and probably inaccurate) to simply aggregate. But replacing those 99 games with a league average catcher (hopefully better) may make our pitchers look significantly better. I think this is particularly true if you believe pitchers' confidence plays a significant role in his performance throughout a game. I imagine it is pretty disheartening when you throw the perfect pitch and it's called a ball.
  7. Mike Frasier Law
    I was perusing Fangraphs and saw an article about the end of the Doumit catching era. According to the article, Doumit was/is the worst pitch-framer ever. -3.02 strikes per game: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/trading-ryan-doumit-and-the-possible-end-of-an-era/ According to the same article, one call is worth .13 runs. And, if I understand correctly, 10 runs is roughly 1 win. So Doumit caught 99 games for the Twins total. 99 games x 3.02 runs per game is 298.98 lost strikes. That equates to 38.8 runs, or nearly 4 wins total. Just though it to be interesting. Does anyone buy this math?
  8. Mike Frasier Law
    When I read the headline, I took your analogy differently, more like what Mackey wrote yesterday: http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Twins_finally_bump_the_undeserving_bunch_far_down_SP_ladder121513 In other words, the Twins are betting against the house in that they are betting that Pelfrey is better than any in-house "filler" option, and moves everyone down a spot on the depth chart. I buy it. I think he allows the Twins to keep people in the minors that need development while not completely embarrassing the major league team. I don't think he blocks anyone that shouldn't be blocked - when a Meyer or May is ready, it will be easy enough to find a spot for them.
  9. Mike Frasier Law
    I love it (only because it's a minor league deal). Yes, he is competing with a handful of other LH power hitting DHs that need to be platooned. If we're only filling a part time DH/PH off the bench, I'd rather have Kubel in that role than Parmelee.
  10. Mike Frasier Law
    You say Ubaldo will have a high price tag. But if I remember correctly, the free agents that received qualifying offers last year had significantly repressed markets. Do you think that will happen with Ubaldo, and if do, do you think it increases the likelihood of the Twins signing him?
  11. Mike Frasier Law
    When I read your post, I thought you had to be wrong about the offense and run prevention, so I had to look it up.
  12. Mike Frasier Law
    It certainly didn't work out well. But no one expected Pelfrey to have a 5.32 ERA (4.32 FIP indicates he's been better than that). No one expected Vance Worley to have a 7.21 ERA either (his 5.53 FIP and 4.77 xFIP are well below what people predicted). Fangraphs and Steamer predicted an ERA in the mid to high 4 range from both, which wouldn't have been great, but would have given the Twins at least a few more wins.I liked both acquisitions, and think it was a fluke that they turned out so poorly.
  13. Mike Frasier Law
    The twins have scored 3.98 runs per game and have allowed 4.49 runs per game. In the AL, only the White Sox, Astros, and Yankees(!!) have scored fewer per game, and only the Astros, Blue Jays, Angels, and Mariners have allowed more runs per game. It's not pretty. Here's my reasons to hope: we will score more runs next year because Arcia, Hicks, and whomever is playing 1B and 3B will be much improved (how could they not?). We will allow fewer runs because our infield defense should remain as good as it has been, and our outfield defense has nowhere to go but up. And, of course, our pitching could not be worse than it is.
  14. Mike Frasier Law
    I wonder how much it will change after this year's draft and after Gibson shows he is recovered from surgery.
  15. Mike Frasier Law
    I am also a 20 game package F in section 203. Huh.
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