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Mike Frasier Law

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Everything posted by Mike Frasier Law

  1. Mike Frasier Law
    Yes, yes he did. Let's watch! http://m.mlb.com/min/video/topic/0/v35935381/?c_id=min I could watch that all day.
  2. Mike Frasier Law
    Three excellent innings for May. Here's hoping he can do three more without the wheels falling off like last time
  3. Mike Frasier Law
    We do have some big swingers. The hardest hit homerun by a Twin this year was by Arcia: http://m.mlb.com/video/v35069371/?c_id=mlb That one was 116.5 mph off the bat with a true distance of 468. Pinto's in second at 114 and 459: http://m.mlb.com/video/v32236589/?c_id=mlb It's fun to watch these young guys hit the ball hard.
  4. Mike Frasier Law
    I'm not sure I accept the premise. You're absolutely right that strikeouts have the same absolute value for a pitcher and for a batter. Similarly, walks have less value than any hit. Here's where I disagree with your premise. Absent excellent ground-ball rates, allowing contact is bad for pitchers. That's because contact sometimes turns into hits, and hits score more runs than walks. So if allowing more walks is a consequence of also striking out a lot and having a low contact rate, the tradeoff may be worth it. For batters, I don't think the goal is to work the count to take a walk. I think the goal is to force the pitcher to throw a pitch that the batter can drive. With strike zones shrinking as they have been, it means more and more walks for patient batters, and empowers them to really be patient and "wait for their pitch"
  5. Mike Frasier Law
    I really hope it's May. I think he's as good as he's going to get in AAA and needs to learn up here. He doesn't have Meyer's upside, which is why it makes some sort of sense to keep Meyer at AAA to get polished. I hope it's May and he never looks back.
  6. Mike Frasier Law
    I'd be very happy/sad if Seth is right. Sad only because I wouldn't be able to attend May's debut.
  7. Mike Frasier Law
    Indeed! Twins starters this year have accumulated 7.6 WAR. 4.1 comes from Hughes and 2.0 comes from Gibson. Put another way, those two have combined to pitch 259 innings (more than 6 per start), winning 20 games, and pitching to roughly a 4 ERA. How good were our top two pitchers in the last few years you ask? 2013 the Twins didn't have a starter win 10 games. Correia pitched 185 innings and Pelfrey came in second at 152. Those two were our two best starters, compiling 3.6 WAR combined. 2012 the Twins had ACE Scott Diamond win 12 games while pitching 173 innings (good for 2.3 WAR). We had no other starting pitcher even hit 100 innings. It's hard to say who our second best pitcher was. Deduno won 6 games pitching 79 innings. Liriano pitched 92 innings, accumulating .9 WAR, but went 3-10 with a 5.34 ERA. Blackburn actually pitched the second most innings at 98 - good for a 4-9 record, 7.39 ERA and -.8 WAR. 2011 the Twins didn't have a 10 game winner. But we had Pavano pitch 222 innings with a 4.30 ERA and 2.7 WAR. Baker had a 3.21 ERA and 2.8 WAR, but only pitched 131 innings. Duensing pitched 156 innings, but also had a horrific ERA (5.24). Having two good (as in better than average) starting pitchers doesn't make a playoff caliber team, but it's been awhile since we experienced the feeling of having two. Heck, what Correia has done this year as our 3rd best pitcher (123 IP, 4.96 ERA, 0.7 WAR) is arguably better than our #2 pitchers for the last three years.
  8. Mike Frasier Law
    I'm sure I'm not alone in being frustrated with the slow rebuilding process, but as an optimist, I always look for an excuse to hope. I knew our starting staff was historically miserable last year, so I decided to compare how our staff is this year. Then I decided to go on a wild goose chase. Whoops! Here is a link to the SP lines for each year since 2010 for the Twins. The first thing I noticed was how shudderingly awfur the last two years were. Our starters did not pitch 900 innings. They didn't notch 40 wins. And of course team ERA of 5.26 and 5.40 just make me sad (along with the 2.8 and 4.7 total WAR. You read that right. Starting pitching team WAR of 2.8 in 2012.) Here's why I was happy when I looked at it. This year we are back on pace to pitch more than 900 innings. The 5.93 k/9 ratio is the best since 2010. The 2.39 bb/9 ratio is the best since 2010. The staff has already accumulated 7.6 WAR, to go along with an ERA (barely) under 5. The 4.19 xFIP is better than most years, and significantly better than the last 2. And it looks like the staff is only getting stronger. In the last 30 days, our starters have 6.35 k/9, 2.00 bb/9, 4.07 xFIP, and 1.9 WAR. And reinforcements have not yet arrived! When we trim the remaining fat and replace them with budding prospects, we could be getting back to the heyday of Twins pitching (see 2005 - 2007). Can't wait!
  9. Mike Frasier Law
    Rotographs (Fangraphs fantasy baseball side) just put up an interesting piece on Gibson. Granted, looking at him from a fantasy perspective is totally different, but I found the article encouraging. The author, Eno Sarris, is convinced Gibson's change-up is a legitimate plus pitch, and that the stats on it have stabilized. He noted Gibson gets many swings and misses on the pitch, and an excellent 58% gb rate. What I liked best about the article is that it hints at a trend of Gibson using his sinker less in his last few starts. If he does that and uses more of his change-up, his gb% will stay or increase, but he should get more strike outs. We were all musing how good Gibson could be if only he struck out more batters, and this article implies that it is a real possibility!
  10. Mike Frasier Law
    If your question were whether I thought this would happen, that is an easy no. But I like the idea. Is it feasible to do what you suggest - meaning, are there any 25 and 40 man roster issues with it?
  11. Mike Frasier Law
    Do you think those adjustments help account for his career best k% rate and nearly career best bb% rate? He's at 8.3% for both, which is a pretty solid k% rate (third best among qualified hitters in the league, led by Revere at 8.0%)
  12. Mike Frasier Law
    I don't think we'll see Rosario this year. Otherwise, I can't argue too much.
  13. Mike Frasier Law
    I have zero problem with this. The Twins have plenty of money and this extension will not prevent them from doing anything in the offseason. Hopefully Suzuki will be a back-up for much of that time, while also being a mentor to Pinto and an insurance policy.
  14. Mike Frasier Law
    Other than Suzuki (who apparently got extended) all the other players we fans would like to see gone are exactly the type to be traded in August.
  15. Mike Frasier Law
    I wonder if the Twins plan on turning Pelfrey into a RP when he recovers. I think that would be a good move and could possibly save his career.
  16. Mike Frasier Law
    What do we know about Milone? - He's under team control through 2017 - He's 27 years old - he's a career average pitcher (exactly 100 ERA+) - career 6.5 k/p and 2.0 bb/9 - fly ball pitcher (career 36.8% GB%) Those numbers put him as an upgrade to all our current pitchers except Hughes, methinks
  17. Mike Frasier Law
    What about SS? Are we all of the opinion that Santana will be the every day SS next year if we have a legitimate OF? If not, is there a FA available worth the money? I wouldn't spend a dime on relief pitchers, and I think the Twins have enough confidence in developing from within on that front.
  18. Mike Frasier Law
    If I were a betting man (and I am), I would put even money on him passing Carew, but I'd probably have to get odds to bet that he passes Harmon. Interestingly, Baseball-Reference, which calculates WAR differently, has Joe in 6th at 44.9, and has Carew #1 at 63.7, with Killer at 60.5.
  19. Mike Frasier Law
    The Blackburn comparison made me sad. So I compared them to see how close they are in some key statistics: Gibson 2014: 4.8 k/9 2.52 bb/9 .55 hr/9 55.5% gb% Blackburn career : 4.27 k/9 2.22 bb/9 1.29 hr/9 47.5% gb% I think the hr/9 and gb% are probably related. Gibson strikes more out (still among worst in league) but his elite ground ball rate and decent control make me believe his production is sustainable. His FIP and xFIP reflect that as well, as they are both very close to his ERA on the year (3.94 ERA / 3.73 FIP / 4.09 xFIP). If he struck out even 6 per 9 while keeping the other numbers the same, he could be an excellent pitcher. But that might be hoping for too much. If he keeps his rates the same, I expect him to be an above-average pitcher, which is a welcome sight in our rotation.
  20. Mike Frasier Law
    Congrats joemama!
  21. Mike Frasier Law
    There are two starting pitchers in baseball that have struck out fewer than 5 per 9 innings. Gibson is at 4.72. Correia is at 4.12. And Gibson has a top 10 ground ball rate to help make up for the lack of strikeouts. So I think the vitriol comes from the history of the signing, but it also comes from the fact that he (a) isn't very entertaining, ( isn't very good, and © his good streaks don't look remotely sustainable.
  22. Mike Frasier Law
    This is what Gallo did to that truck. Can't figure out how to rotate the pic - sorry!
  23. Mike Frasier Law
    He did! There's no replacing Adam Gislason. We don't have any specific plans right now, but we'll see.
  24. Mike Frasier Law
    Thanks Mike!
  25. Mike Frasier Law
    Mike Frasier.
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