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SarasotaBill

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Everything posted by SarasotaBill

  1. SarasotaBill
    Patience is paying off. All hail Falvey
  2. SarasotaBill
    I view Sanchez as an insurance policy. Add another arm for depth. Downside is he pitches terribly in Spring Training and the Twins lose $2.5 million.
  3. SarasotaBill
    Patience. Let's wait and see what happens with the remaining free agents.
  4. SarasotaBill
    Baseball heritage was one pitcher per game. So baseball has changed and evolved over time. Let's get rid of pitchers who only pitch to one batter. Two Rules: 1. A pitcher who starts the inning must pitch to three batters. 2. A pitcher who comes into the game must pitch to three batters. It speeds up the snail pace of games. It adds even more strategy. It'll probably add more hits and drama.
  5. SarasotaBill
    Not protecting Burdi is Falvey's biggest mistake. A team only needs to carry him for 90 days (half of the full year since he'll be on the 60 day DL). In addition, 30 of those 90 days will be in September. So a team essentially needs to carry Burdi on the 24 man roster for 60 days excluding September (2/5 of the full year minus September). Plus the flexibility to take him off the 60 day DL at their preferred time.
  6. SarasotaBill
    Assumption - other GMs are not idiots. Other GMs understand good/bad seasons, peak and low values, and age affecting performance. No one is trading younger pitching (close to the Majors) for Santana. Santana has strong value for the Twins and you make a decision at the trading deadline when a contender may be desperate for a starter (see Garcia trade).
  7. SarasotaBill
    Palacios is the same age as Blankenhorn. Palacios out hit him in single A. Palacios is playing the more difficult position (SS vs 2B) Blankenhorn is rated higher. Are you assuming Palacios power was a one time occurrence and Blankenhorn will develop much more power? Would you trade Jay before any of these players? My answer would be definitely NO. Jay has potential of a power closer. Jay is way under rated in your rankings.
  8. SarasotaBill
    Seth, Nice work as always. I know you reduce a relief pitcher's ranking but if tomorrow another team offered a trade and you could keep Granite or Jay, your rankings indicate you would want to keep Granite. Right now, I would not rank Granite above Jay. Jay has too much potential compared to Granite.
  9. SarasotaBill
    1. Sign Darvish 2. Tell Otani that he can have the same schedule as Japan. Pitch on Sunday and DH/OF the rest of the week. 3. Sell Otani on great defense (lower ERA) and young team that will only get better. 4. Sell Otani on MidWest charm and lower cost of living. 5. Sign Otani.
  10. SarasotaBill
    When the rosters expand in September and the Twins are home you could start Gimenez and bat him ninth. When his turn comes up in the 2nd or 3rd you could pinch hit him and bring in Castro as the defensive replacement. You would still have Garver in case Castro gets hurt. I'm not sure at this time any bench players are that much better than Castro to use up two players for one at bat early in the game. More likely is a late inning PH for the catcher and defensive C substitution.
  11. SarasotaBill
    My understanding is a player needs to be on the 40 to play in MLB. Falvey must plan today with the off season, next season, and the next off season in mind. Things change but he has to have a plan (it might include making a trade for a Ace). If you only plan for today then you will need to remove players off the 40 which then exposes them to the Padres or other weak team 40 man roster. There's a reason Falvey has brought up non-prospect players as fill-ins.
  12. SarasotaBill
    The projected 40 man roster in the off season influences who gets called up or not. For example, Slegers may not be called up because they don't plan to put him on the 40.
  13. SarasotaBill
    Only givens should be brought up in September. You don't want to have to remove a player from the 40 in the off-season and let another team not have to use their 25 to steal them.
  14. SarasotaBill
    Good recovery after making the mistake for trading for Garcia. The Twins need to selling any short term asset.
  15. SarasotaBill
    Teams didn't want to outbid the Twins earlier this week for Garcia but may pay more for him within the week. I'm sorry that doesn't make any sense. Garcia doesn't help in the future since he's a free agent.
  16. SarasotaBill
    Like the possible upside
  17. SarasotaBill
    If you are buying when you should be selling then you are fooled. I'm fine if they can't find any good deals for selling (don't sell for the sake of selling) but you should not be buying.
  18. SarasotaBill
    Falvey got fooled by first half since the Indians and Royals under performed. Only need to look at runs differential and Astros/RedSox and understand 2017 is not the Twins year to go for it. Patience is tough after so many dreadful years but the GM has to understand the percentages of roster peak performance vs. the rest of the league. The Twins are set up for 2019 (assuming Gonsalves and Romero have growing pains next year like Berrios did last year) and beyond. 2019 Starters: Berrios Free Agent Ace Mejia Gonsalves Romero Back Ups - May, Stewart, Jorge, Thorpe, Rodriguez
  19. SarasotaBill
    Besides Berrios who were the pitching prospects in the Twins in the past ten years? Starters: Gonsalves, Romano, Thorpe, Stewart, Jorge plus others. Relievers: Reed, Curtis, Burdi, Rosario plus others Players start their peak years after a few years of MLB experience. Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Gordon, and others will be better in two years. In two years, the Twins can replace the Mauer contract with a top free agent ace pitcher. Look at the number of top end prospects and very young players on the Twins. You have to look out 2-3 years or you will repeat the same mistakes over and over again. You are kidding yourself if you think the Twins are even close to the Astros level in 2017.
  20. SarasotaBill
    Garcia is below average. Burdi has high end potential - 100 Mph. Twins timing is not now. It's in 2019 - 2021. Theo traded Samardzija & Hammel in 2014. Cubs won World Series in 2016. Theo has traded prospects in 2016 & 2017 because the timing is now for them.
  21. SarasotaBill
    Garcia will have a ERA over 5 in the AL. Losing any high potential prospect for a half year rental of a blah pitcher is a bad idea. For what, to get into a wild card game? A percentage of prospects will make it. A percentage of high end prospects will make a big impact. 2019 to 2021 are the prime years for the Twins prospect pipeline.
  22. SarasotaBill
    Headline: Garcia pitched a great game last night. Reality: 3 runs in 7 innings is an ERA close to 4 without pitching to a DH. Blah. Falvey - I'm ordering you not to trade any high potential player.
  23. SarasotaBill
    Pass The Twins are not optimized for 2017. I thought Falvey was better than this.
  24. SarasotaBill
    When the numbers come out, they will provide further insight. In the mean time, my guess is they valued getting Leach at under slot and thought there would be a few overslot guys remaining after the first day. General analytics would assume price dropping overnight. Maybe the overslot guys price dropped overnight from 2.6 (slot #24) to 2.2M (slot #30). If so, another 400k saved to add more talent.
  25. SarasotaBill
    Derek & Thad had a plan: -- maximize talent by squeezing the top draft pick -- see if McKay would accept a under slot #4 pick deal to save even more -- favor position over pitcher at 1:1 to lower risk -- obviously really wanted Rooker at 35 -- do an over slot deal in the 3rd instead of the 2nd to lower risk (could negotiate overnight) Their draft seems to have had good reviews. We'll know a lot more in 4 years.
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