jorgenswest

I checked baseball cube and baseball reference in this trade earlier. No citation in any year for Erlin on a top 100 list. Wieland was not on Texas top 10 list. I did see that they were ranked 7 and 8 following the trade for San Diego. That might put them in the 150-250 range. In fact, this trade was where I got my comp of two guys in the top 300.

Nicasio is an intriguing target. A change may help him. Story also fits what we might expect in a Perkins deal. A guy ranked in the 100 not having a top 100 season. Wilson Ramos was this guy in 2010. His OPS in AAA at the time of the trade was 625 (295 plate appearances). There are not comps of relievers getting much better return.

We agree on the need for prospects. The comps aren't there for many of the kinds of trades discussed on this site. It isn't reasonable to expect a Grienke type return for a reliever. The best return for a reliever in the last 4 years might be Wilson Ramos and he was having a very poor season in AAA. The best return possible might not include a top 100 prospect. Instead, it might include two guys in the top 300. I think the Twins need to do that deal. I also believe that Ryan will be blasted either way. If he trades Perkins in line with comps, it won't be near the deal expected. If he keeps him, there will be revisionist history saying he should have pulled the trigger on those top prospects he must have been offered. I didn't believe a league average CF could bring a top 50 prospect starting pitcher. He pulled that deal off. Maybe he can do the same with Perkins.

Is it reasonable to expect those kind of returns? The only trade last year that was close to that return was Jean Segura (#55) and Johnny Hellweg who was #4 in the Angels system. It took Grienke to get that deal. I don't think a closer can get that kind of return. I found no comps for reliever trades with that type of return in the last 4 years. If the expectation on Ryan is that he can get a Grienke level return for Perkins, any trade is almost certain to disappoint. If a lesser return means the best option is to keep Perkins, then he is almost certain to remain.

Is that what I wrote? I think there is a good chance he will remain effective for the next three years. At that point the Twins no longer have control. I didn't speculate beyond three years. I don't know when the Twins will be good again, but I do know it will take effective pitchers. Are there any other pitchers on the roster as likely to be effective the next three years?

Thoughts on the Olney/Schoefield piece. Trade Talk: Glen Perkins - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum I looked at all 30 year old relievers from 1991-2010. There were 32 relievers. Here is the data with the help of baseball reference's play index. While it is true that closers change teams often, you will notice that most effective relievers remain effective through age 33. They may change roles to starter (Dempster) or set up man (Soriano joining Yankees), but they remain effective. The closer workload may also keep those relievers healthier than set up men. Ineffective relievers, without surprise, were very volatile. Schoenfield could have pointed out that there is a good chance that Perkins will be an effective pitcher the next three years. He didn't point it out because he studied more from a team perspective. Is the likelihood that a #50 prospect will have a significant major league career on par with the likelihood that Perkins will continue to be an effective pitcher the next three years? That will be up to the Twins management.

Thanks. Great post. I am on board with trading Fien. My plan was to take a look at comps of trades of set up men and do a post about Fien and Burton like the Mujica for Cox deal last summer.

The defensive stat that stands up best to correlation is defensive runs saved from BIS solutions. It has been shown to be more stable than batting average and ERA and less stable but close to OPS. In spite of significantly less time in CF, Hicks has done better in this measure than Span or Revere this year. Though it will take a while for the measure to be trusted by the fan as ERA or OPS, I sure hope the Twins front office is paying attention. Would you prefer our management take your same view in their regard to defensive metrics?

On jokin data in post #7 This context should be added. K/9 rate. 2008 6.8 2011 7.1 2013 7.5 Jokin also pointed out the NL/AL flip will change strike out rates. The strike out rate has been increasing. The cause is unknown but increases coincide with the pitch fx system. Umpires may be more conscious of the strike zone and call more strikes. The system showed teams which catchers were able to get more strikes and helped catchers to see what kinds of strikes they were not getting. Teams like the Yankees and Rays are willing to trade offense from catchers to get those extra strikes. I do think the Twins would benefit from a new staff. They need to look at teams that have really made changes in the pitching. Look at the Pirates. How are they doing it? They have made huge gains with the strike zone with Russell Martin. Searage, their pitching coach, has really made an impact. Cuban Euclides Rojas is the Pirate bullpen coach. I wonder if he might be a candidate for a pitching coach job.

I have a little different format for this one as much has been written about Perkins. Dave Schoenfield's article recommending the Twins trade Glen Perkins in "Another Reason Closers are Overated". As I read his article is whether he was asking the right questions. The question should really be what happens to closers the following year. It should be how many teams have the same closer. How effective can we expect Perkins to remain in the next 2-3 years? As the Twins consider trading Glenn Perkins, they really need to assess the value he will bring in the next 2 or 3 seasons they have him under control. Using the years 1991-2010, I looked at the 32 pitchers in the closing role at age 30 and followed them through their age 33 season. The data was pulled with the help of Baseball Reference's Play Index, it is here. [TABLE=width: 250] Age Closers 30 32 31 22 32 20 33 18 [/TABLE] At first that seems like a significant drop off. However, it isn't a fair assessment either. Pitchers left closing for three reasons. - They were injured - They were ineffective closers - They changed roles and remained effective Ryan Dempster became an effective starting pitcher. Rafael Soriano spent a year as an effective set up man to Mariano Rivera. Had either been given the opportunity to close, they probably would have remained effective in that role. Other pitchers did not continue to close because they weren't good at it. Braden Looper and Danny Graves for example. They should not be grouped with Glenn Perkins. In fact, there are several guys on the list that did the job and had saves for the year. They were not effective and did not continue in that role. Schoenfield points to the often changing team closer role as evidence that it is easy to find another closer. Couldn't it also be that teams are continuing to search for an effective closer? I think we need to count the pitchers who were effective but either did not play or became ineffective due to injury. [TABLE=width: 250] Age Loss to injury 30 0 31 5 32 6 33 4 [/TABLE] Injured pitchers include John Franco (2 seasons), JJ Putz (3 seasons), Jeff Russell (1 season), Tom Gordon (2 seasons), Keith Foulke (2 seasons), Bryan Harvey (3 seasons), Bj Ryan (2 seasons). I really don't know where to put guys like Octavio Dotel, Jose Mesa and Heatcliff Slocumb. I think it was more of a role change for them. I don't think their teams viewed them as effective. It isn't that easy to find an effective closer. Players with a closer workload seem to have a better chance of remaining healthy than a set up reliever. I looked at the continued health of set up men last year as the Twins considered extending Jared Burton. It appears there is a good chance that Perkins will remain effective and healthy the next three years. It is probably greater than the likelihood of a #50 prospect having a significant major league career. His contract is very reasonable. His value to the Twins may be greater than the David Schoenfield article suggests. Earlier trade talk articles Trade talk: Brian Duensing Trade Talk: Correia and Pelfrey

I have a little different format for this one as much has been written about Perkins. Dave Schoenfield's article recommending the Twins trade Glen Perkins in "Another Reason Closers are Overated". As I read his article is whether he was asking the right questions. The question should really be what happens to closers the following year. It should be how many teams have the same closer. How effective can we expect Perkins to remain in the next 2-3 years? As the Twins consider trading Glenn Perkins, they really need to assess the value he will bring in the next 2 or 3 seasons they have him under control. Using the years 1991-2010, I looked at the 32 pitchers in the closing role at age 30 and followed them through their age 33 season. The data was pulled with the help of Baseball Reference's Play Index, it is here. [TABLE=width: 250] Age Closers 30 32 31 22 32 20 33 18 [/TABLE] At first that seems like a significant drop off. However, it isn't a fair assessment either. Pitchers left closing for three reasons. - They were injured - They were ineffective closers - They changed roles and remained effective Ryan Dempster became an effective starting pitcher. Rafael Soriano spent a year as an effective set up man to Mariano Rivera. Had either been given the opportunity to close, they probably would have remained effective in that role. Other pitchers did not continue to close because they weren't good at it. Braden Looper and Danny Graves for example. They should not be grouped with Glenn Perkins. In fact, there are several guys on the list that did the job and had saves for the year. They were not effective and did not continue in that role. Schoenfield points to the often changing team closer role as evidence that it is easy to find another closer. Couldn't it also be that teams are continuing to search for an effective closer? I think we need to count the pitchers who were effective but either did not play or became ineffective due to injury. [TABLE=width: 250] Age Loss to injury 30 0 31 5 32 6 33 4 [/TABLE] Injured pitchers include John Franco (2 seasons), JJ Putz (3 seasons), Jeff Russell (1 season), Tom Gordon (2 seasons), Keith Foulke (2 seasons), Bryan Harvey (3 seasons), Bj Ryan (2 seasons). I really don't know where to put guys like Octavio Dotel, Jose Mesa and Heatcliff Slocumb. I think it was more of a role change for them. I don't think their teams viewed them as effective. It isn't that easy to find an effective closer. Players with a closer workload seem to have a better chance of remaining healthy than a set up reliever. I looked at the continued health of set up men last year as the Twins considered extending Jared Burton. It appears there is a good chance that Perkins will remain effective and healthy the next three years. It is probably greater than the likelihood of a #50 prospect having a significant major league career. His contract is very reasonable. His value to the Twins may be greater than the David Schoenfield article suggests. Earlier trade talk articles Trade talk: Brian Duensing Trade Talk: Correia and Pelfrey

One of the costs of a 12 and 13 man pitching staff is potentially valuable bench players like Randy Ruiz. They are right handed corner bats that hit far better against lefties. There is no space on today's bench for the right handed half of a corner platoon. The spots go to a back up catcher, middle infielder and center fielder. They go to guys whose skill is the ability to play several positions. In the 70s guys like Craig Kusick could find a job on a roster. It took a while but Bill Robinson went from right handed platoon corner OF to valuable full time corner OF in his mid 30s. If he had played today, he would have spent his career dominating AAA. Some team is going to figure out how to manage an 11 man pitching staff or maybe even 10. They will bring platooning back into baseball.

I am not convinced that either Duensing or Roenicke would be picked up. If so, the Twins have other replacement level pitchers. They won't need 13 relievers when the staff is rested after the break. Why not send them both put and bring up Colabello and keep Tonkin? When another reliever is needed, let Hernandez work in place of Duensing and release Carroll.

Huge jump to major league pitching. In talking about being ready, it really means ready to struggle. Arcia is ready to struggle. Hopefully, a year from now Sano and Rosario will be ready. Maybe even Buxton. When Sano arrives, he will likely start with good power, a low batting average and many strike outs. He will grow from there.

I know they are not good enough and declining. Doumit's inability to receive a strike in the lower middle of the plate cost Pressly and the Twins dearly last night. We absolutely can not have any plan where he is a catcher next year. There is no way his offense that he puts up while catching can make up for his inability to receive a baseball. These guys are exactly the kinds of players that land on mediocre teams. Willingham, Doumit and Carroll have 31 season in the majors and a combined 2 at bats in the post season (Carroll was a bench player for the Rockies). Willingham and Doumit have never played in the post season. My four players for next year... Collabello, Pinto, Rosario and Sano. Let them grow and improve together. It is time to stop the decline and really rebuild. The Twins can't say they are rebuilding and put up the their oldest roster since 1998. That isn't even doing both. It is signing old players in decline because they have team friendly contract and will help give the illusion of a .500 team for a while. No more illusion. Let's have a young team that we know is going to lose and we know is going to get better.

There are several bats on this team that will not be part of the solution. We can let go of Carroll, Willingham, Doumit and Morneau for whatever the Twins can get. It is time to see if Colabello can give the Twins 3 or 4 years of production. It is time to see if Herrmann or Pinto can defend behind the plate. It is time to abandon the 2 utility player bench.

If the replacement is to come from outside the organization, wouldn't it be better to wait until after the season?

How about Doumit on the list? If they can't part with Willingham, they have to part with Doumit. Neither should be in the field regularly next year.

Terrible job of receiving the ball by Doumit

Thanks for the link. I am convinced. I do think teams are more reluctant in recent seasons to part with good prospects. They are aware of the volatility of closers. However, Perkins could make a huge difference for a team like the Red Sox or Tigers this year. That has to merit a good return in prospects.

I don't think they will get anyone that will look like the right prospect. They will have to find a useful player amidst uninspiring minor league performance like a Ryan Pressly.

An argument I should have added, they can trade Correia for the C+ prospect and seek a replacement in free agency. It really is on the shoulders of the scouting department to find that prospect that most others value as C+ but they believe is better.

The Twins signed to veteran back of the rotation starters last winter. Is it possible they might flip them in a midseason trade? Kevin Correia whose best skill might be his reliable health has performed at an ERA+ of 99 (essentially league average) this year. Mike Pelfrey is coming off injury and started poorly. He needs to put up a string of good starts in order to show that he is healthy. Neither player has a contract that is going to scare off a team. Earlier I look at previous LOOGY trades: Trade Talk: Brian Duensing Why trade them? Correia is 32 and signed through next year. His numbers are probably better than his true ability at this point. He may never have more value as a Twin. Pelfrey is not signed for next year and will be a free agent. Why keep them? The Twins have had a hard time keeping pitchers healthy. Correia seems to have the ability to stay healthy and take the ball every 5 days. We probably haven’t seen the best of Pelfrey. It takes time to recover from TJ surgery. He may take a step the second half and be willing to sign a team friendly deal with the Twins. Pelfrey is 29. Which teams might fit? The Red Sox, Royals, Rangers, Indians, Blue Jays. Correia has performed better than most 5th starters. What is the value of a back end starter at the trade deadline? I looked for trades the last three summers for starter that would not be considered front line pitchers. Most are probably better than Correia and certainly Pelfrey. Jake Westbrook for Corey Kluber, 24, AA, SP at the time of the trade (Sickels C+) Erik Bedard and Josh Fields for Trayvon Robinson,23, AAA, LF and Chih-Hsien Chiang, 23 AA, RF – Robinson was a #9 and #10 Dodger prospect (Sickels . Chiang played in a futures game. (Sickels C+) Jason Marquis for Zach Walters, 21 , Low A, SS (Sickels C+) Francisco Liriano for Pedro Hernandez and Eduardo Escobar (Sickels C prospects) Brett Myers for Matt Heidenreich, 21, A+, SP and Blair Walters, 22, LowA, SP – Sickels had Walters between Escobar and Hernandez as a C prospect. Heidenreich did not make the list. Jeremy Guthrie for Jonathan Sanchez – Two struggling starters with ERAs over 6 at the time of the trade. Aside from the Bedard trade who may not be a good comp, it looks like the Twins can hope for a C+ prospect or two C prospects in return for Correia and possibly Pelfrey. Best Terry Ryan back end starter trades Kevin Tapani was not having a good year when traded to the Dodgers with Mark Guthrie for Ron Coomer, Jose Parra, Chris Latham and Greg Hansell. On the receiving end, he traded Matt Lawton for Rick Reed Brad Swanson has a write up on the Scott Erickson trade How will the Twins replace Correia or Pelfrey? They have Vance Worley, Liam Hendriks, Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers and PJ Walters in Rochester. Trevor May or Alex Meyer may be ready midseason next year. Worley and Hendriks are still young enough to turn it around. Albers may shine given an opportunity. Bottom Line The Twins are not going to get a top prospect for Correia. If they have confidence in the young players offered in return, it might be a worthwhile deal. They don’t need to dump him. With the turmoil of the rotation the last 3 years it might be valuable to keep a player with Correia’s track record of health.

The Twins signed to veteran back of the rotation starters last winter. Is it possible they might flip them in a midseason trade? Kevin Correia whose best skill might be his reliable health has performed at an ERA+ of 99 (essentially league average) this year. Mike Pelfrey is coming off injury and started poorly. He needs to put up a string of good starts in order to show that he is healthy. Neither player has a contract that is going to scare off a team. Earlier I look at previous LOOGY trades: Trade Talk: Brian Duensing Why trade them? Correia is 32 and signed through next year. His numbers are probably better than his true ability at this point. He may never have more value as a Twin. Pelfrey is not signed for next year and will be a free agent. Why keep them? The Twins have had a hard time keeping pitchers healthy. Correia seems to have the ability to stay healthy and take the ball every 5 days. We probably haven’t seen the best of Pelfrey. It takes time to recover from TJ surgery. He may take a step the second half and be willing to sign a team friendly deal with the Twins. Pelfrey is 29. Which teams might fit? The Red Sox, Royals, Rangers, Indians, Blue Jays. Correia has performed better than most 5th starters. What is the value of a back end starter at the trade deadline? I looked for trades the last three summers for starter that would not be considered front line pitchers. Most are probably better than Correia and certainly Pelfrey. Jake Westbrook for Corey Kluber, 24, AA, SP at the time of the trade (Sickels C+) Erik Bedard and Josh Fields for Trayvon Robinson,23, AAA, LF and Chih-Hsien Chiang, 23 AA, RF – Robinson was a #9 and #10 Dodger prospect (Sickels . Chiang played in a futures game. (Sickels C+) Jason Marquis for Zach Walters, 21 , Low A, SS (Sickels C+) Francisco Liriano for Pedro Hernandez and Eduardo Escobar (Sickels C prospects) Brett Myers for Matt Heidenreich, 21, A+, SP and Blair Walters, 22, LowA, SP – Sickels had Walters between Escobar and Hernandez as a C prospect. Heidenreich did not make the list. Jeremy Guthrie for Jonathan Sanchez – Two struggling starters with ERAs over 6 at the time of the trade. Aside from the Bedard trade who may not be a good comp, it looks like the Twins can hope for a C+ prospect or two C prospects in return for Correia and possibly Pelfrey. Best Terry Ryan back end starter trades Kevin Tapani was not having a good year when traded to the Dodgers with Mark Guthrie for Ron Coomer, Jose Parra, Chris Latham and Greg Hansell. On the receiving end, he traded Matt Lawton for Rick Reed Brad Swanson has a write up on the Scott Erickson trade How will the Twins replace Correia or Pelfrey? They have Vance Worley, Liam Hendriks, Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers and PJ Walters in Rochester. Trevor May or Alex Meyer may be ready midseason next year. Worley and Hendriks are still young enough to turn it around. Albers may shine given an opportunity. Bottom Line The Twins are not going to get a top prospect for Correia. If they have confidence in the young players offered in return, it might be a worthwhile deal. They don’t need to dump him. With the turmoil of the rotation the last 3 years it might be valuable to keep a player with Correia’s track record of health.