jorgenswest

Both Santana and Escobar are solid enough to be utility players on a good team. Escobar is more like a Punto and Santana a Bonifacio. While on a bad team, they have an opportunity to improve their command of the strike zone with regular play. Keep them both in place for the remainder of the year.

According to the Braves guy, he is not a good defensive CF. UZR and DRS confirm this in the season where he played significant innings. After 1251 PA, he has shown he can't hit. He has been released by the Astros and Braves. He is hitting .163 this year. Then there is the HGH suspension and felony drug arrest. It's hard to see the downside. Worst case, in a small sample he will hit a little and play the game the right way. The Twins respond by keeping him on the 40 without looking for a better solution. He was a top prospect in 2008. That has to mean something. The Twins top prospects that year were Nick Blackburn and Joe Benson. Maybe they are available. More warm bodies. What's the downside?

Isn't the option only used if they send him back down this year? Seems kind of late in the year for that to be necessary.

I look forward to the day when there is downside to rostering a player hitting .160 and the bar for being on the roster is somewhere above "warm body". How much more upside does Shafer have than Farris? Is there any value in rewarding the efforts efforts of a player on the AAA roster? Hicks could have taken his spot in AAA. Farris can also play infield. I don't think either is worthy of a winter spot in the 40, but I would have rewarded Farris' efforts with a few months in the majors.

We saw the lack of flexibility the Twins had with their bench last night. With 13 pitchers, there are three options on the bench assuming everyone is healthy. That isn't enough. They need another CF. Joe Mauer will return. They need to work to getting back to 12. There are spots for May, Meyer and Milone right now. There have been all July. It isn't lack of openings that have kept the Twins from evaluating them for next year. Here is another thought. DFA Correia and Burton today. Option Pino and Darnell. Bring up Meyer, Milone, May and Farris. Meyer and Farris need to be added to the 40. The timings need to work to match rotation spots, but Farris can certainly take Correia's spot today. Evaluate the three in the starting rotation. Evaluate Farris in a super utility role. He is only one year older than Nunez. Reports are that he is a versatile defender that is more than adequate defensively. He may be a better option in that role than Nunez. It would be good to find out. Meanwhile, Hicks can get time in AAA.

He isn't going to hit start hitting .180. He may start hitting .250. If you mix that with an ISO that ranks 147th of 156 qualified batters you get a poor offensive player.

Why shouldn't Nolasco's situation be good with the Twins? He is in a home park that suppresses home runs to left handed hitters. He has thrown every pitch to a veteran catcher that Perkins and Hughes love.

One of the players this site has discussed trading is Brian Duensing. The thought is other teams might look to him as a left-handed LOOGY. His line this year: 5.06 ERA, 41g, 32 innings, 29k, 14bb (over his career left handed hitters have a .580 OPS) Why trade him? Brian is 30. He will be eligible for arbitration next year. He would likely be non-tendered. Caleb Thielbar appears to be the better option, with Pedro Hernandez providing depth.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Why keep him? He certainly isn’t at peak value now and has never been tried exclusively as a LOOGY. Perhaps he will find the type of success Craig Breslow found after leaving the Twins. Which teams might fit? Boston lost Miller but they have Breslow. The Indians are rumored to be looking for a lefty. The Reds are reportedly seeking a lefty. What is the value of a LOOGY at the trade deadline? I found 5 trades (and a waiver claim) over the last 3 summers involving a left-handed reliever as the primary target. I am not sure Duensing is a great match as all others had ERAs under 4. When looking at the ability to get left-handed hitters, he might be a match. Brain Fuentes for (PTBNL) Loek Van Mil- 25y.o., AA, 6.37 ERA Javier Lopez for John Bowker and Joe Martinez – both 27 year old AAAA players Will Ohmann for Rick Vandenhurk- 25y.o., AAA starter, 4.68 ERA Craig Breslow for Matt Albers(29) and Scot Posednik(36) – major leaguers JC Romero for Carlos Rojas – 28, AA, utility infielder Jose Mijares -waived by Royals and picked up by Giants. In these trades there were no high-potential players sent back to the team dealing the LOOGY. Some were already replacement AAAA players. Van Mil and Vandenhurk were 25 years old. Vandenhurk had started 11 games for the Marlins the previous season. None of "prospects" appeared on his team's Top Ten lists, though Vandenhurk had pitched in the Futures game three years earlier. Best Terry Ryan LOOGY trade The Twins traded JC Romero for Alexi Casilla in 2005. The return of Casilla is far better than anything in the last three years. Download attachment: Brian Duensing.jpg How will the Twins replace Duensing? It seems that Thielbar already has replaced Duensing. Hernandez is six years younger and seems better suited to relief. Bottom Line When looking at comps, we can expect virtually nothing in return for Duensing. He certainly would not merit a sleeper prospect. Anything the Twins are able to get in return would be a bonus. An Alexi Casilla A-Ball type prospect would be an outright steal. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Doumit_Ryan_600_321.jpg "I don’t say this about many decisions, but starting Doumit at catcher might be a fireable offense. In 60 games at catcher for Pittsburgh in 2011, his framing cost the Pirates 20 runs. In 59 games for Minnesota in 2012, his framing cost the Twins 21 runs. All told, his framing has subtracted 98 runs over the past five seasons, on top of the damage from the other things he does poorly behind the plate, which wipes out his offensive value." - Ben Lindbergh, Baseball Prospectus It has been difficult on this site to state concerns about Ryan Doumit and the Twins extending him. In a debate last week, I was told 28-29 teams would love to have Doumit and he was more valuable than ever. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Let's look at two teams attempt to fill out a bench. Last fall the Twins and Rays were both seeking catching help. The Rays signed Jose Molina and the Twins signed Doumit. The Rays signed Molina for 1.5 million and picked up his option for 2013 at 1.5 (also reported 1.8) million. The Twins have invested 10 million in Doumit over three years. For several years catching performance has been evaluated using pitch f/x. The results seem to be reliable as the catchers who perform at the top or bottom of the list remain relatively stable. This information and study by Mike Fast was available to both teams. Aaron Gleeman referenced it at the time of the Doumit signing. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093 Molina was the best catcher at saving runs through framing pitches over a 5 year period. Doumit was at the bottom of the list. They were at the extremes both in total and average per 120 games. How did it work out for both clubs? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/18896 If the metric is accurate, Molina saved his team 50 runs in 80 games. Doumit cost the Twins 21 runs in 59 games. Molina's value is all defense but those 50 runs saved represent 5 wins. Doumits -21 represents a loss of 2 wins and completely wipes out his contribution to the team as a hitter. Molina and Doumit took there familiar positions at the top and bottom of the list. A result that could have been easily projected. 28-29 teams would love to have Doumit? Must be everyone except the Rays. It couldn't be more clear that the Twins evaluation differs greatly from the Rays. One other quote from the first article about the Twins management and pitch f/x "...Ryan Doumit, the patron saint of poor receivers. Except that Doumit hasn’t exactly been blacklisted behind the plate: in fact, he caught more innings for Minnesota in 2012 than he did as a Pirate the season before. Well, okay, you might say, but that was the Twins, the one team you could almost persuade yourself hasn’t heard about PITCHf/x yet. (“Wait, you mean all this time all of our pitchers were throwing really slowly?”) I am assuming you stopped reading this a long time ago if you join the Twins management in skepticism about pitch f/x. If not, what should the Twins do about Doumit? Doumit's only value as a catcher is on someone's fantasy baseball team. In that realm, Molina isn't even an afterthought. Doumit does have value. He can platoon at DH and pinch hit. While I question whether that role merits an extension, the real concern is the Twins management understanding of the impact of defense on wins. The Twins should not enter the season with any plan of using Doumit as a catcher. Anything more than a late inning emergency replacement can not be justified. Our young and struggling pitching staff must be given any edge the Twins can provide. There has been much discussion about the Twins carrying 5 catchers. It is really 4 if Doumit is rightly moved into a Jim Thome role. It is 3 if Butera does not return. One of the three, Pinto, is not near ready for the majors. That leaves Mauer and Herrmann. The bigger question must be asked about the Twins management. From the outside, it seems like they are taking a long time to embrace some of the metrics of the last decade. One roster decision about a back up catcher speaks volumes about the two teams. One team commits 3 million to get two years of top ranked defense. The other commits 10 million over three years for an above average bat without a position. Let's hope the Twins are right and the metrics of the last decade are poor indicators of how to build a roster and win ball games. Click here to view the article

There are 52 left handed relievers (excluding closers) that have pitched at least 20 games. Of the 52, Brian Duensing ranks 36th in FIP at 3.87 and 44th in K rate at 16.3%. Andrew Miller is at 1.82 and 39.6%. Andrew Miller will get a good return. Between Miller and Duensing are other left handed relievers on selling teams. Duensing will be attractive if he has a low cost of acquisition. The acquiring team will offer a player that they would need to take off the 40 to make room for Duensing. Should the Twins trade Duensing for that player?

Download attachment: Suzuki_Kurt_Face_US_720.jpg Mike Berardino reported this weekend that Terry Ryan expected Kurt Suzuki to start this year for the Minnesota Twins at catcher. At the time of the signing, it appeared that Suzuki was signed to give the Twins a veteran backup. On this site, there were certainly questions about his defense and concern about the workload he carried early in his career. At the time, the best available options other than Suzuki were John Buck or retaining Doumit. While Suzuki has been a poor pitch framer, Doumit and Buck are at the bottom. Does it matter that Suzuki is a poor at framing pitches? Perhaps he makes up for it in working with pitchers and pitch selection. If a catcher has an impact on pitcher performance, how might it show up in the stats? FIP uses the defense independent stats of strikeouts, walks and home runs. I am not sure how much a catcher might impact home runs, but if he impacts anything it will be strikeouts and walks. Suzuki's has worked for two clubs in each of the last two years. Add 2011 and there is a sample of over 12000 batters faced. How does he compare to the 12 other catchers who caught for Oakland or Washington in the last three years? [TABLE=width: 576] Year Team Suzuki Others Suzuki Others Suzuki Others [/TD] k/bb k/bb K% K% BB% BB% BF 2013 OAK 1.86 2.84 17.06% 19.66% 9.19% 6.91% 381 2013 WSN 2.78 3.31 19.68% 21.15% 7.08% 6.38% 2795 2012 WSN 2.6 2.69 20.88% 21.80% 8.02% 8.13% 1547 2012 OAK 2.15 2.75 17.54% 19.32% 8.16% 7.04% 2720 2011 OAK 2.13 2.67 18.46% 20.18% 8.67% 7.51% 4811 [TD]3yr TOT 2.31 2.84 18.79% 20.45% 8.13% 7.20% 12254 [/TABLE] Over the last three years, the other 12 catchers have a 23% better strikeout walk ratio, a strikeout rate that is 9% better and a walk rate that is 11% lower. Every year over the last three and on every team, pitchers who happen to be throwing to Suzuki strike out fewer batters and walk more batters. Small sample size? It is over 12000 batters. Maybe he has had teammates who are very good catchers? It was 12 different guys on two different teams. The Twins needed a backup catcher. The free agent and trade market for catchers dried up quickly and only the catchers with poor framing numbers remained. Suzuki appears to be the best of what was left. Signing a veteran catcher to start in 40-50 games seemed a good move. Before spring training, Ryan has said he expects him to start. It seems the plan all along was to seek a starter. If that is the case, is Suzuki the right guy? Click here to view the article

That's too bad. A lot of lost content. I think content trumps looks and ease of use, but probably not the revenue. Doesn't matter for those who want to banter endlessly in the forums though. Perhaps that is where you need to focus and get the most ad revenue.

Download attachment: Sano_Miguel_Landscape.jpg The Yankees gamed the international signing system this year. With a limit of $2.2 million to spend, they poured over $13M at top signees - on the first day. In doing so they gave up the right to sign players to more than $300,000 over the next two years and must pay a 100% tax. This is in stark contrast to the Twins strategy. The Twins top signee is pitcher Huascar Ynoa, who they signed for $800,000. Is the Yankees strategy worth it? How easy is it to determine the best players to have signed at age 16? Should the Twins look at something similar? In order to help answer that question I went to look at the top signings of the 2007 and 2006 seasons. Players signed in those seasons have now had 7 or 8 years to develop. They needed to be put on 40 man rosters or exposed to the Rule 5 draft by 2011. They have used some of their options. This is a list from Baseball America of the top 20 signings in 2007. [TABLE] PLAYER, POS. ORGANIZATION AGE COUNTRY SIGNING BONUS Michael Almanzar, 3b Red Sox 16 DR $1.5 million Kelvin De Leon, of Yankees 16 DR $1.1 million Jharmidy DeJesus, ss Mariners 16 DR $1 million Julio Teheran, rhp Braves 16 Colombia $850,000 Gabriel Noriega, ss Mariners 16 Venezuela $800,000 Arodys Vizcaino, rhp Yankees 16 DR $800,000 Elio De La Rosa, 3b Yankees 16 DR $750,000 Jonathan Spraut (Galvez), ss Padres 16 DR $750,000 Wilmer Flores, ss Mets 16 Venezuela $700,000 Henry Pena, of Yankees 16 DR $600,000 Martin Perez. lhp Rangers 16 Venezuela $580,000 Wilson Suero, ss Rangers 16 DR $558,000 Jefry Marte, 3b Mets 16 DR $550,000 Eduardo Sosa, of Yankees 16 Venezuela $500,000 Ryde Rodriguez, of Cardinals 19 Cuba $460,000 Hitaniel Arias, of Brewers 16 DR $450,000 Efrain Nunez, of Mariners 16 DR $450,000 Cesar Puello, of Mets 16 DR $400,000 Angel Joseph, of Giants 16 DR $350,000 Kevin Moscatel, c Cardinals 16 Venezuela $350,000 [/TABLE] It would be great to have Julio Teheran.Martin Perez has started 34 games in the majors and has a pitch to contact profile. He is out with Tommy John surgey.Arodys Vizcaino has been traded twice and missed two seasons due to serious injury. He is now a reliever in the Cubs system.The Mets put Wilmer Flores and Cesar Puello on the 40 man roster in 2011. Flores may make it as a SS, but he may never hit. Puello is struggling mightily to hit as a corner OF in the PCL. Those are the success stories. They are the players that made it to the 40 man roster. Some of the rest are still playing ball, but they have become available in the Rule 5 draft. There were two players that I was not able to find any record of having played any baseball. One is Wilson Suero who probably really wasn’t Wilson Suero. The other was Angel Joseph. Go to Baseball Reference and do a search for Angel Joseph. You won’t find him either. They do lead you to another player. You probably noticed that there were no Twins on the list. Jeremy and Seth can correct me but I believe that Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana and Liam Hendriks were international signings in 2007. How about 2006? These players are at least 24 years old now. [TABLE] Player, Pos. Organization Country Signing Bonus Angel Villalona, 3b Giants DR $2.1 million Jesus Montero, c Yankees Venezuela $1.65 million Esmailyn Gonzalez, ss Nationals DR $1.4 million Carlos Truinfel, ss Mariners DR $1.3 million Young Il-Jung, rhp Angels South Korea $1 million Larry Suarez, rhp Cubs Venezuela $850,000 Francisco Pena, c Mets DR $750,000 Balbino Fuenmayor, 3b Blue Jays Venezuela $725,000 Mario Martinez, of Mariners Venezuela $600,000 Engel Beltre, of Red Sox DR $600,000 Oscar Tejada, ss Red Sox DR $525,000 Manuel Solis, 3b Rangers DR $525,000 [/TABLE] A few of these guys have played in the majors. Jesus Montero is looking for a position and trying to figure out how to hit major league pitching well enough to be a DH.Carlos Triunfel has played in the majors. He was DFA’d when he ran out of options this years and is now in the Dodger organizationFrancisco Pena has played a game in the majors. The Royals acquired him as a minor league free agent.Engel Beltre is on the 40 man roster with the Rangers and played a few games last year. He is currently on 60 day DL.A few other notes… Angel Villalona was arrested on suspicion of murder and lost two years due to visa restrictions. He is on the 40 for the Giants and playing AA.Esmailyn Gonzalez is really Carlos Alvarez and made it to rookie ball as a 27 year old in 2013. How about the Twins? Josmil Pinto was a 2006 signing. Any others make it? Two years of top signings and so far only Julio Teheran stands out. Were the Yankees correct in their strategy? Volume gives them a chance. It is hard to tell which 16 year old is going to be Julio Teheran so they threw their money at a lot of 16 year olds. Will they be lucky enough that some of their money landed on a Teheran? http://www.baseballa...007/264683.html http://www.baseballa...006/262506.html [/hr]Twins beat up Seattle last night, so on Thursday you can get a half price large or extra-large pizza from PapaJohns.com by using the promo code 'TWINSWIN'. Click here to view the article

I do appreciate they effort. I wonder it there is still things to work out. I chose to put my blog articles here and it would be nice if they remained. Maybe no one else would go back and look, but I look to see how my thoughts may have changed. One thing that distinguishes for me whether it is a forum entry or a bog entry is whether I would go back and look at it. John always talks about writing stuff he would want to read. I looked at the two July blog entries I wrote in July. The first is unreadable due to missing tables. The second is missing with the exception of the comments. Perhaps this isn't the kind of thing you want to read after weeks of hard work and I do appreciate the effort it must take to manage a site.

It is a brain injury. If the Twins were to go that direction with a player, no one would sign a contract to play here. They wouldn't be able to spend the recovered money in the free agent market.

It is something that could be studied. The data has been shown to be consistent year to year for catchers. It is also easy for catchers to gather a large sample in a short time. How consistent is the data for individual for pitchers? To get a better sample size pitching roles could be compared. Do mop up men do better since they are in low leverage situations? Is it more difficult for closers? Of all the Twins Burton has lost the greatest percentage of strikes this year so I am not sure how that fits. Max Marchi, Dan Turkenkopf and Mike Fast are the pioneers in this area. All of them have been hired by major league clubs. Perhaps this is the kind of detail they are doing for their organizations.

Good work. I appreciate the look from a different lens.

I don't think it is set to 0. It happens to be close. The median team is slightly negative, but the 6 top teams weigh the data towards the positive side. team data Pinto isn't a good pitch framer. Suzuki isn't either. Both are better than Doumit. The Twins rank 30th again.

Dan Turkenkopf's work that showed the run value of turning a strike into a ball. I think the change referred to was from the original .16 to .14 due to count. We haven't heard from him in a while because he was hired by the Rays two seasons ago. It is his manager with the famous quote about Molina saving 50 runs. It is his organization that employs Molina in spite of a slash line of 195/239/201.

Baseball Prospectus has pitch framing data organized by battery. Framing data by battery The data looks at pitches where the umpire needs to make the call and compares actual strikes with predicted strikes. While looking at splits creates small sample sizes, I wondered if it would be clear that Josmil Pinto's framing skills are significantly worse than Kurt Suzuki. The natural place to start is Glenn Perkins. Chances Predicted Actual +/- Josmil Pinto 73 24.3 22 -9.5% Kurt Suzuki 200 73.9 67 -9.3% Glenn Perkins has lost strikes to each catcher. Pinto cost him 2.3 strikes and Suzuki cost him 7.9. By percent Suzuki has a slight edge. How about Sam Deduno? Chances Predicted Actual +/- Josmil Pinto 369 125.9 106 -15.8% Kurt Suzuki 257 98.3 88 -10.5% Josmil Pinto had a much more difficult time with Sam Deduno. That isn't surprising. A young catcher matched with a very difficult pitcher to catch. Deduno is also prone to wild pitches. The Twins have one of the better catchers in the league at preventing wild pitches. It is surprising they didn't use him more often with their wild pitch prone starter. Listed below are the other starters and relievers where there were at least 100 chances. Ricky Nolasco is not listed. Suzuki has been his catcher for every pitch thrown. Kevin Correia Chances Predicted Actual +/- Josmil Pinto 240 75.1 69 -8.1% Kurt Suzuki 569 182.7 173 -5.3% Phil Hughes Chances Predicted Actual +/- Josmil Pinto 87 33.6 34 1.2% Kurt Suzuki 698 265.7 249 -6.3% Kyle Gibson Chances Predicted Actual +/- Josmil Pinto 60 17.6 16 -9.1% Kurt Suzuki 709 223.8 195 -12.9% Mike Pelfrey Chances Predicted Actual +/- Josmil Pinto 184 60.4 51 -15.6% Kurt Suzuki 96 27 25 -7.4% Anthony Swarzak Chances Predicted Actual +/- Josmil Pinto 118 26.3 29 10.3% Kurt Suzuki 230 83.1 83 -0.1% Casey Fien Chances Predicted Actual +/- Josmil Pinto 63 19.9 22 10.6% Kurt Suzuki 192 84.5 81 -4.1% Brian Duensing Chances Predicted Actual +/- Josmil Pinto 114 34.6 31 -10.4% Kurt Suzuki 152 48.5 42 -13.4% In the small samples of a split, Pinto had more difficulty with Pelfrey and Correia and fared better with Duensing, Fien, Swarzak, Gibson and Hughes. Faring better is relative. It is relative to Suzuki. I am not suggesting Pinto is a good pitch framer. He isn't. Neither is Suzuki. I don't think there is anything in the data to suggest that Pinto's pitch framing is so poor that he shouldn't be a major league catcher. He just turned 25. He will get better. The numbers will improve. When he returns, the Twins might consider matching him up with pitchers who have better command than Deduno. He needs to refine his skill with better confidence that the pitch will end up somewhere near his target.

Thanks for the good work. I hoping the a Twins stay away from decline phase pitchers until they have a foundation. There aren't many guys like a Hughes that hit free agency so young, but having the upside of age is critical to a team that needs to tear down and rebuild.

He Gone!