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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Last year they took two steps forward. This year they took one step back. I thought the one year deals for Morrison and Lynn were good moves. I continue to like the one year part. I am disappointed in the performance of Sano and Buxton. I like front offices response to their poor performance. Gibson and Rosario are performing far better than expected. It is hard to get worked up about the margins of the roster in the bench and the back of the pen. I am not sure they have utilized the rule 5 draft well. They have found a few players to move from the margin to useful in Hildenberger and Adrianza. I will be watching to see what happens with the coaching staff this off season.
  2. jorgenswest
    Saw an article where the Twins are giving bullpenning a run in the minors. https://www.twincities.com/2018/07/22/curious-twins-give-bullpenning-a-whirl-in-their-minor-league-system/ Trevor May started and went an inning in Rochester. He strikes me as a good option to try as an opener and go two innings. Another pitcher than might fit well next year is Odorizzi. If he a team is loaded with lefties at the top of the lineup, maybe Rogers is a fit. If May were to go two innings once a series you get around 108 innings from him and he never has the stress of warming up several times and then not be used. If the Twins have Berrios, Gibson and several young pitchers in their rotation next year they might give bullpenning a run.
  3. jorgenswest
    I am neither excited nor concerned about Gordon. I am confident he will be a starting and contributing major league infielder. The Twins need to be patient and make sure he has demonstrated command of the strike zone in AAA. That will happen though maybe not timed with Dozier’s departure.
  4. jorgenswest
    Probably the same reason he hadn’t played one inning of catcher in AAA in the 4 weeks prior to his first game in the majors.
  5. jorgenswest
    That decision was made in Rochester. He had not played catcher in the 4 weeks prior to his first game in the majors. He started mostly at 3B with a few starts in the outfield in that time. He had two months to show the Twins his ability to catch in AAA. If they decided it wasn’t adequate for AAA Molitor had no business starting him at catcher in the majors.
  6. jorgenswest
    Sometimes I am not sure if you would prefer for the Twins to win or Dozier to have a game like tonight.
  7. jorgenswest
    Does the return for Familia from the A’s tell us anything about the market for relievers? The Mets received a 26 year old AAA reliever. The A’s need relievers and didn’t call on him though he has a ton of strike outs this year. They also received a 24 year old 3B in high A. His 741 OPS ranks him 8th on his team among regular position players. They also received international money. The Mes could have waited but took this deal. What should the Twins expect for their relievers?
  8. jorgenswest
    Should it matter that Hedges is close to the league average catcher OPS and Kepler’s OPS is not nearly as close to the average RF OPS? They are both 25. They will both be better in their primes.kepler is the better hitter.
  9. jorgenswest
    Back to topic... Is Kepler enough for Hedges? Do the Twins project better next year with either Wade or Cave getting Kepler at bats and Hedges getting Bobby Wilson’s time at catcher?
  10. jorgenswest
    Context for the facts... If you press 2B and qualified on fangraphs you will get players like Zobrist who have played 2B but are not primarilynthe Cubs 2B. That is how you end up with two Cubs and 171 games of 2B play in the list. If you want to see just play at 2B you can choose the split as a 2B. If you do the split and choose team you can compare Dozier’s performance compared to the play team’s are getting at 2B. This will give a clearer picture of the season up to the all star break as long as you are comparing rate stats. If you want to use slash based stats to project forward this partial season is not enough sample to be provide a reliable comparison. You really need to include 2017 and 2016 weighing each year prior a little less. Facts are tricky. They can be framed in so many different ways. I would argue pressing the 2B button on fangraphs does not give a fair representation of how teams will project Dozier’s value the last two months of the season.
  11. jorgenswest
    They don’t need a fifth starter until next week. Seems like a position player helps more than a ninth bullpen arm with a rested pen. It should be a short stay until either a 5th starter is needed or Morrison is ready. Is there a different position player who is a better option for the weekend? Would it be better to have a ninth reliever for a series against Kansas City?
  12. jorgenswest
    I agree. Earlier I said a return of a guy like Adalberto Mejia at the time of the Nunez trade was above that bar. A similar return for Dozier or Escobar is better than the expected value of a comp pick.
  13. jorgenswest
    I look at the qualifying offer of ~18 million a little differently. When teams give a veteran free agent pitcher 4 years and 60 million they know they are likely to get 2 good years. That is what the Twins got from Santana which is a lot better than the return from Hughes and Nolasco. The Twins will likely get one good year from Castro for the three years. A one year deal for ~18 million to a player in their 30s can work out better than a 3/30 deal. As long as Dozier and Escobar finish strong, I would make the qualifying offer. I don’t go into the deadline feeling I must trade them. Instead I expect a return of at least a comp pick before I deal them.
  14. jorgenswest
    When Bobby Wilson is the catcher who the management feels gives the team the best chance to win in 2018 there is a lot of space for improvement. I don’t think there are many 25 year old catchers like Hedges to target. His defense is so good. However the one place the Twins have some depth they might consider trading is mid 20s left handed hitting outfielders in Rosario, Kepler, Cave and Wade. There must be a match somewhere to get a catcher.
  15. jorgenswest
    I am concerned the drop from Gibson to the starter(s) that replace him at the end of the rotation will cost at least 3 wins next year. I don’t trust that he can be replaced in free agency. Any return must have a positive impact on wins in both 2019 and beyond. If that can’t happen I am keeping him next year. I would listen to offers but teams better be ready to overpay.
  16. jorgenswest
    Random thoughts reading the thread... It is possible to overpay in free agency also. Unless the home built catcher is Garver, I don’t see anyone they can count on the next two years. The reason the Padres make the trade is the Twins can meet a need. Maybe the Padres believe in Kepler’s peripherals and the trade of 25 year olds works well for both teams. It could turn out like the Hicks trade where both players are useful 27 year old major leaguers. Murphy is a good defensive catcher but Hedges is much better. Realmuto is very expensive. Better veteran free agent catchers probably cost three years and likely give you on good year. Castro at 6 million a year for three years sounds good until you think about it as 18 million for one year. Grandal is going to be very expensive. Ramos will also be very expensive. Any other free agents to consider? The Padres have a good catching prospect at every level (Campusano, Torrens, Allen and Mejia). If we are seeking an organization with young catching to try to solve the problem, the Padres are one place to look.
  17. jorgenswest
    Is Hedges a possible solution to catcher? It will be Mejia’s job soon. Would one of the Rochester starters be a good match? How about Kepler? I know he isn’t hitting yet but he is still young and among the better defensive catchers.
  18. jorgenswest
    I saw him pitch and was impressed. I was disappointed that I missed Graterol but seeing Balazovic followed by Enlow left me very encouraged.
  19. jorgenswest
    The Twins seemed to have made a decision to prioritize college relievers in the last administration. It was a critically bad decision and drafting Tyler Jay at that point was a mistake. If you draft a high school starting pitcher in the same spot many never make it but the upside of an ace starter makes it a worthwhile gamble. Jay didn’t have that upside as a college reliever. New guys in charge now that would not have drafted a college reliever.
  20. jorgenswest
    There are at least 8 pitchers in Rochester already on the 40 man roster that have earned the opportunity to play a month or two in the majors this season. That doesn’t include the possibility that Pineda is ready to throw in September. I really hope that Lynn, Rodney and Duke can be traded. Belisle can be released. I am not certain about Magill and whether he can sustain a mid 3 ERA given some of his peripherals. The staff doesn’t seem to want to use him in even moderate leverage situations. If they don’t see him as part of a contending pitching staff, they should men on. As for position players I would trust the process with Sano and Buxton as to whether they return this season. The one player not on the 40 that should get his feet wet is Wade. They already have team control through his prime. If he struggles, it is late enough in the season where they won’t need to send him back and burn an option. The lack of position players and the high number of pitchers in Rochester ready for an opportunity might guide them as they consider offers. They really could use a few position players near ready with options. They might go for higher upside younger pitchers that don’t need a 40 man spot next year. If the end up with a near ready catcher and middle infielder with a few A ball pitchers while moving players with expiring contracts it will be a successful trade deadline.
  21. jorgenswest
    Mid season update from Sickels https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/7/18/17584728/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2018-mid-season-review
  22. jorgenswest
    Right now teams must see Gibson as a little bit of a question mark going forward. He still hasn’t had a full season of good performance. At best he has to be seen as reliably improving the back end of a rotation for a contender. If he continues his performance over the next year teams will have much more confidence that he can be a viable starter in play off games. Though he will have less service time he will be a more desired pitcher. The gamble for the Twins is whether they bet on this being his high point or whether they think he can sustain this level. If they believe he can sustain this level they need to keep him into next year.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am able to look it up if you like though I don’t think the sample is large enough to be considered meaningful. It really would be mathematically best to combine the 2017 with 2018 for wRC+, OPS+ or other slash stat driven data.
  24. jorgenswest
    If the Twins believe in Gibson they need to keep him into next year. A year from now they can trade him if they are sellers and get nearly the same return. One risk is that he will not pitch well and they missed an opportunity to sell high. Another risk is that they will trade him and a year from now be looking for a starter at the deadline performing like Gibson. At that point they have to give the prospect value back and have that pitcher for less than half a season. Unless they think his performance will drop off they need to keep him until they find five better starters.
  25. jorgenswest
    I don’t agree with your use of statistics. I am pretty sure that there couldn’t be 28 qualified first basemen though there could be 28 guys who played at least 1 game at first base and also had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. That list has to include players whose primary position was not 1B. The wRC+ overall for first basemen in 2017 was 113. It would be fair to note that Mauer hit better than average first base play. In addition wRC+ does not include his contribution in the field which by the eyes of many was better than league average. There is enough to support your argument for not re-signing Mauer without using statistics in a misleading way (though that may not have been your intent). If fangraphs was your source, you do not get a list of qualified firstbasemen by clicking 1B.
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