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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The only way out of mediocrity is to develop starting pitching. That takes talent and opportunity. The Twins front office at this point must not see much talent or isn't willing to risk the chance that their struggle may cost a few games. Meyer is at an age where he is close to peak velocity. He will spend that time in the minors. May likely won't be given enough starts to develop. Viola and Radke struggled for two years without being sent down. Today's Twins would have returned Santana after a few months of awful pitching his rookie year. The new stadium need people In the seats. The Twins have a better chance of filling those seats short term by giving the illusion of being competitive into July. The short term gains accomplished by filling with decline phase veterans has a cost on the long term solution.
  2. jorgenswest
    As long as we have the attitude gap filled, who cares about the one in left center.
  3. jorgenswest
    I wonder if pairing Santana with Pinto would work. Suzuki wore down with the workload they gave him last year. They need Pinto to fit in somewhere and keep Suzuki closer to 100 starts. I would think if Pinto is going to develop into the catcher they need, it is going to be a veteran with command like Santana.
  4. jorgenswest
    I wrote this elsewhere... Extending a very good player like Donaldon or Carpenter through 33 makes sense because they have room for decline with their career OPS+ of 125. They are likely to still be a valuable player. Plouffe has a career OPS+ of 99 at a similar spot in his career. It is much less likely that he will be a valuable player. He has little room for decline.
  5. jorgenswest
    Awful pitching. Awful defense in the OF. Awful pitch framing. Together they gave up 777 runs or 107 runs above league average and last in the AL. How many of those 107 is on the defense can be argued but is really unknown. We can probably agree that both need fixing. We probably also agree that nothing has been accomplished this winter that fixes either.
  6. jorgenswest
    Phil Hughes was 6th among qualified pitchers in FIP (2.65) and 42nd (3.52) in ERA. Seems like something had a negative impact on his performance. By ratio, no qualified pitcher had a greater disparity in the ERA compared to their FIP. It is true that as long as the Twins can put together a rotation of 5 guys that put up league top 10 FIPS, they will perform well in spite of the horrific outfield defense.
  7. jorgenswest
    It will give the Twins very little leverage to get anything in return.
  8. jorgenswest
    Moving Arcia to left field would be so short sighted. Rosario is not going to be RF. They desperately need a player with range in LF and they signed another DH.
  9. jorgenswest
    In my argument I almost said that if either put up san OPS+ like Carpenter or Donaldson it would be a different question. They both also started career at 26 but put up an OPS+ in the 140s in their second year. There is a whole bunch of room for decline from that level.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Yankees let Nunez go because he can't play 2B. They kept Anna and Solarte instead. In the few games Dozier missed, they moved Escobar over instead of using Nunez at 2B. He is more 3B/LF/emergency SS than true utility. I wouldn't mind if they sign him though. A trade of a Plouffe may open a temporary role. The salary might keep others from claiming when DFA'd and he can be stashed in Rochester.
  11. jorgenswest
    A difference between Plouffe and Dozier compared to the previously mentioned Span, Seager and Gyorko is the age in which they would hit free agency ending team control. I hope the Twins management has the belief that there is a significant difference between losing a player at age 30 and losing a player at age 32. They extended Span through age 31 with option. They don't need to do that with Dozier and Plouffe. They have those seasons under team control. It doesn't matter the player. No player projects to play better at age 32 than age 30. No random large group of players performs better as a group at age 32 than age 30. Extending contracts so that a big portion of the contract value is during the age 32-33 seasons is going to make them very difficult to trade. Teams signing free agents don't have a choice. They have to pay for the decline. The Twins don't need to pay for the decline of players under team control through the typical peak.
  12. jorgenswest
    Gyorko was a college draftee. Seager was a college draftee. Dozier may have been on a fast track, but he also had the full track. Seager and Gyorko played A Ball the summer they were drafted. On the short track, both had their first full season in the majors at 24. Dozier was 26. The Twins get two more years of control through the aging curve.
  13. jorgenswest
    The A's traded number 1 starter Rich Harden for four young players in 2008. Rich Harden was a sell high and the trade was seen by some as a steal for the Cubs. One of the prospects in return on a buy low was Josh Donaldson. He was their number 7 prospect going into 2008 and was having a bad season. He certainly had fallen out of their top 10. Somehow the A's scouts always make these deals work. Will it be Brett Lawrie? Is he traded 5 years from now for another 4 guys? Will it be the 18 year old SS prospect? Do the A's see something in those starting pitching prospects? I don't know. They continue to win by selling high. It works because of the success of their scouting department finding the right guys.
  14. jorgenswest
    What would the A's do with Plouffe?
  15. jorgenswest
    What would the A's do with Dozier and Plouffe? With Dozier, I think they hold one more year and hope for another similar performance before selling high.
  16. jorgenswest
    These aging curves were based on July 1 age. Plouffe fits in as age 32.125 on that date in 2018. Players with later starts like Dozier and Plouffe would fit in the green line. We don't know which players will decline quicker, but as a group decline starts showing up for 5000 PA players after 32 and earlier for players with less plate appearances. http://www.hardballtimes.com/wp-content/images/tht/image007.png The graph below splits the eras. We might argue that players declined later because of current nutrition and working out routines. On the other hand, it has been argued that the 1980-2008 era was one of steroid use and that use allowed players to perform longer and recover from injury quicker. http://www.hardballtimes.com/wp-content/images/tht/image002.png As a group, it is better to bet on a player's performance remaining level through 30-31 rather than paying the bulk of an extension in their age 32-33 seasons. Is there something special about Plouffe (or Dozier) that would cause them to be among the minority of players that decline at a later age?
  17. jorgenswest
    Baseball Reference must be incorrect about Plouffe's status. They have first free agency as 2018 which is his 32 year old season. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/plouftr01.shtml ... or maybe it is just a difference in how age is listed (opening day vs. July 1). In any case, the Twins should treat this situation differently than those of Seager, Walker or Span.
  18. jorgenswest
    Reading through the two discussions, I think I have settled in on a position which isn't consistent with some of my earlier statements. You have helped to change my thinking. Plouffe and Dozier are very similar cases. They both hit arb1 during there age 29 season and the Twins don't lose team control until age 32. Neither is so great that the Twins couldn't afford any 1 year arb award they may earn. The Twins will be able to pay them what they earn. The two most mentioned comps in Seager and Walker differ in one very important attribute. They hit arb1 at 27 and team control is lost at age 30. Those 30 and 31 year old seasons are worth protecting. Span would have hit arb 1 earlier also. The Twins extended Span though his age 31 season. It is best for the Twins to go year to year with both. There are no bad one year contracts. One year contracts are the most flexible to trade. There isn't enough savings to be found in extending them. Worst case by not signing. The pair plays really well and it costs the Twins in payroll. It might even amount to the difference of a Correia or Pelfrey level free agent signing. Worst case by signing. They regress towards career norms and the Twins have contracts that are difficult to move. I am convinced the Twins should say no to both.
  19. jorgenswest
    I know the rangers gave Kinsler an extension that declined as he went into his 30s. Those contracts are pretty rare. Maybe they shouldn't be.
  20. jorgenswest
    Great discussion starter. I would say no if I were the Twins. I wouldn't want to touch the age 33 season. I liked Doc Bauer's idea in the Dozier thread. They appear to have the money this year. If the salaries don't escalate he stays a little easier to trade. How about 4/34 with no escalation? Who would say no?
  21. jorgenswest
    ... or you were forced to leave your homeland and families permantly when leaving Cuba. Imagine the worry about his family as he was aware of the violence and turmoil whole leaving knowing he could not return. Minoso, of course, encountered the same worry late in his career as Fidel was coming into power. The time span from 1959 to 1962 was incredibly difficult in Cuba. Oliva's family lost their farm, land and livelihoods. The opportunity to play baseball and travel had diminished considerably than in Minoso's time in Cuba. On the baseball field, they both had careers that started late due to circumstances out of their control. Oliva had a better first 8 years. Minoso had two more above average years beyond the first 8. They both are worthy of the Hall of Fame, but I don't see Minoso as clearly the better candidate which is where the discussion started.
  22. jorgenswest
    I guess we disagree about whether or not an arbiter would see Walker as clearly inferior.
  23. jorgenswest
    Just a little confused. I am sure Minoso and Oliva played a lot of ball before being signed at age 22. I am not sure why playing in the Negro Leagues as many Cubans did in the summer before returning to play in Cuba or the Cuban League makes a difference. They had to play somewhere to be discovered. In Tony's time coming to the US was more difficult so his experience was in Cuba instead of America. I don't buy that playing in the Negro Leagues from age 20-22 makes Minoso a better candidate for the hall.
  24. jorgenswest
    Walker is projected for a better season next year. Projections need to be based on 3-5 years and Walker has been consistently strong longer. His projection from steamer of 3.4 compared to 2.9 for Dozier is pretty close so the comp is a good one. I don't think any arbiter would accept the clearly inferior argument, but the number aspect makes sense.
  25. jorgenswest
    He is projected for a 2.9 WAR (steamer) next year which is between his last two seasons. If he were to continue to be a 3 WAR player through his arbitration seasons, what would he earn in arbitration? I am not sure, but I think the answer to yes or no can be found by studying that progression. The Twins say no unless they get a significant savings in the above deal compared to arbitration. If I am the Twins, I do say no to buying that first year of free agency at age 33. Instead, they still have the option of tendering. The 5/33 contract is much easier to trade. It is going to be difficult to trade a contract where half of its value is in the age 32-33 seasons.
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