jorgenswest

The Minnesota Twins have said that improving the bullpen is a very high priority this offseason. However, it is difficult to know which relievers were will be successful, will be worth their contract. Today, Jorgenwest provides some details about the success rates of multi-year contracts to relievers.Signing relievers to multi-year free agent deals is a risky proposition. Dave Cameron had these numbers in a study from 2010. I wondered if anything had changed since the study and the new free agency rules. There were 11 non-closer relievers signed prior to the 2013 season to multi-year deals. Jeremy Affeldt (2013-2015), 3 years, $18 million: $-6.6 million(Fangraphs) Mike Adams (2013-2014), 2 years, $12 million: $0.1 million(Fangraphs) Jason Grilli (2013-2014), 2 years, $6.75 million: $14.3 million(Fangraphs) Joel Peralta (2013-2014), 2 years, $6 million: $8.8 million(Fangraphs) Sean Burnett (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $-0.5 million(Fangraphs) Randy Choate (2013-2015), 3 years, $7.5 million: $6.6 million(Fangraphs) Tom Gorzelanny (2013-2014), 2 years, $5.7 million: $7.3 million(Fangraphs) Jonathan Broxton (2013-2015), 3 years, $21 million: $4.9 million(Fangraphs) Kyuji Fujikawa (2013-2014), 2 years, $9.2 million: $1.1 million(Fangraphs) Brandon League (2013-2014), 3 years, $22.5 million: $-3.3 million(Fangraphs) Joakim Soria (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $12.3 million(Fangraphs) Teams spent $124.65 million for 26 years of relievers. Their return on the investment was $45 million. Peralta and Gorzelanny were solid modest investments. Grilli had an all-star season as a closer. Soria pitched well when healthy, averaging 34 innings a season. As a group these relievers provided little value. They averaged 38 innings per year of mediocre relief. The same kind of relief the Twins have been able to find among the likes of Burton and Boyer. Do we have confidence the Twins can find the reliever that will by among the minority in this year's group and provide good value the next two or three season? I am not. I am not confident any team has the skill to find that value. The Twins need relievers. That is without question. The question is whether signing 30-something relievers in the free agent market is the answer. I think the Twins' dollars are better spent elsewhere. Go with the young players. Continue to sign guys like Boyer, Burton and Stauffer who will take a one-year deal. The Twins success rate with those guys is no worse than the success rate in Cameron's study or the 2013 group. It is also much easier to cut ties with a guy on a one-year deal than a guy just signed to three years and $15 million. If it doesn't work out, solid relievers can be found every July. Click here to view the article

Center fielders in the AL had an OPS of 738 last year. AL Catchers had an OPS of 678. Hicks is a useful player. His floor is a 4th OF/right handed half of a platoon. He will probably never hit right handed pitching well enough to be a corner OF. Murphy is a useful player. His floor looks to be average defense with more offense than the typical second catcher. He does need to bat enough this year to make sure than Suzuki's contract does not vest. Two guys that belong on major league rosters with talent on the fringe of being an everyday regular at their positions. Both have enough upside to hit at league average relative to their positions.

Catching is expensive. In a trade of a CF for a catcher, the centerfielder is going to be the better offensive player. That Hicks projects better offensively than his return at catcher should be expected. The trade is fair. They are not going to get Sanchez for Hicks. The Twins need catching a lot more than center field. Murphy helps. They still need catching.

Signing relievers to multi-year free agent deals is a risky proposition. Dave Cameron had these numbers in a study from 2010. I wondered if anything had changed since the study and the new free agency rules. There were 11 non-closer relievers signed prior to the 2013 season to multi year deals. Jeremy Affeldt (2013-2015), 3 years, $18 million: $-6.6 million(Fangraphs) Mike Adams (2013-2014), 2 years, $12 million: $0.1 million(Fangraphs) Jason Grilli (2013-2014), 2 years, $6.75 million: $14.3 million(Fangraphs) Joel Peralta (2013-2014), 2 years, $6 million: $8.8 million(Fangraphs) Sean Burnett (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $-0.5 million(Fangraphs) Randy Choate (2013-2015), 3 years, $7.5 million: $6.6 million(Fangraphs) Tom Gorzelanny (2013-2014), 2 years, $5.7 million: $7.3 million(Fangraphs) Jonathan Broxton (2013-2015), 3 years, $21 million: $4.9 million(Fangraphs) Kyuji Fujikawa (2013-2014), 2 years, $9.2 million: $1.1 million(Fangraphs) Brandon League (2013-2014), 3 years, $22.5 million: $-3.3 million(Fangraphs) Joakim Soria (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $12.3 million(Fangraphs) Teams spent $124.65 million for 26 years of relievers. Their return on the investment was $45 million. Peralta and Gorzelanny were solid modest investments. Grilli had an all star season as a closer. Soria pitched well when healthy averaging 34 innings a season. As a group these relievers provided little value. They averaged 38 innings per year of mediocre relief. The same kind of relief the Twins have been able to find among the likes of Burton and Boyer. Do we have confidence the Twins can find the reliever that will by among the minority in this year's group and provide good value the next two or three season? I am not. I am not confident any team has the skill to find that value. The Twins need relievers. That is without question. The question is whether signing 30 something reliever in the free agent market is the answer. I think the Twins dollars are better spent elsewhere. Go with the young players. Continue to sign guys like Boyer, Burton and Stauffer that will take a one year deal. The Twins success rate with those guys is no worse than the success rate in Cameron's study or the 2013 group. It is also much easier to cut ties with a guy on a one year deal than a guy they just signed to 3/15. If it doesn't work out, solid relievers can be found every July.

Lots of pages are wasted on packages that can never happen. Every team feels the 40 man roster crunch. They can't take on more guys on the 40 than they move. They will just lose other players when DFA'd to get down to 40. Berrios isn't on the 40 and has significant value. The Twins need a starter that is better than league average. Berrios has the best chance in the organization to meet that need. I think the need for a top starter is greater than the need for a catcher. Other prospects not on the 40 have little or no time above A ball and do not add enough to a package. Dozier is the Twins best asset towards acquiring a catcher. Dozier for a solid catcher or Weiters for their round 1 pick. I think I would roll the dice with Weiters and give up the pick.

I hope the Twins aren't trying to project the performance of Santana or Nunez or Escobar based on one season of data in which none of the three was a regular throughout the season. Projection should be based on 3-5 years. I would think based on that and age, Nunez would come out with little upside offensively or defensively. Santana's glove would certainly be better up the middle. Nunez would be a better fit at 3B. His value would increase with a Plouffe trade.

I have written enough about Suzuki's defense and bat. By any measure they are both significantly below average for the position. On paper, it wouldn't seem like a big drop off to Herrmann or Fryer is possible with the bar set so low. I have come to believe that there is an important aspect of Suzuki's contribution that has gone unmeasured by the myriad of metrics available.

As long as they aren't trying to squeeze one more year of a mediocre (but deserving of a major league job) decline phase veteran while at the same time designating a player with the upside of youth.

I wonder if they should shut him down and see if he can find his bat in winter ball. A left handed power bat under team control would be incredibly valuable to this organization. They have to give him a shot next year in a platoon role.

Hunter is going to keep playing until he has negative value. I hope the Twins aren't the team paying for that season. It could be next year.

Isn't the 2.140 date related to the group that will earn it following this year? For example, Arcia was 1.132 at the start of the season and was likely to miss the cutoff bu projection. I don't think they would have near enough data to make a projection on this year's group. There has only been a handful of years since the super 2 group size increased. There will be years where that number is below 122.

They might want to make sure he spends 20 days on assignment. Here are the considerations. Use an option this year and lose that possibility in 2018 by going 20 daysReduce service time by 20 days and the possibility of super 2 status goes from small to 0.The likelihood of needing an option in 2018 and super 2 status are both small. Small enough that he should be called up immediately if Rosario or Hicks are injured, Meanwhile the Twins were wise to stop the service time clock while he comes back from injury and avoid any possibility of super 2.

If anyone claimed Suzuki, Nolasco or Santana I would let them go. Unfortunately, I don't think any team would risk taking their contracts. If a player has a no trade contract but is waived and claimed, can they be let go without compensation? It isn't a trade. I realize no team is going to pick up Mauer with this many years left on his contract, but I do wonder about the possibility down the road. While not being a trade, the Twins do acquire salary relief.

One of the reasons to wait on service time is so that you don't have prospects passing these deadlines on the DL. Most of Mauer's first year was spent on the DL gaining service time. Had the Twins waited to begin Mauer's service time, they would have negotiated with him after a good 2010 season as opposed to an out of this world 2009 season. He would have been a year older and the contract would likely have been smaller and shorter term.

I hope we are concerned about losing a guy who has posted an OPS of 807 against right handed pitching. He has 30 career home runs in 513 at bats. Do the Twins have any other OF that comes close to matching that production against right handed pitchers over the last three years? He did this at a young age and does not need to be a late bloomer. He just needs to continue and be used in a platoon role by the Twins. We should be worried about his performance following his hip injury. The return that may have been too soon had to have messed up his timing. This year might be lost, but he has to be in the plan to start in RF against right handed pitching next year.

They called him up in June after they believed the super 2 cut off had passed. They can't get an extra year of service time unless they had started him in AAA next season. I am not sure how the additional service time is a real negative. It doesn't help him towards super 2 status and waiting until next May for him to make his debut isn't reasonable. I guess if he struggles for multiple years like Hicks and Arcia and needs the options then it might matter. They don't need to use an option this year though. If he does struggle, the real negative will be his performance and not the service time. Am I correct in stating that if he starts on the roster opening day 2016 the service time on the DL will not have enabled him to become a free agent a year earlier or allowed him arbitration a year earlier?

MLB pipeline has him at 20 so that is one very large border. Hu throws 90-92 now. A pitcher's velocity peaks in early 20s and is very unlikely to go up and will be in slow decline. A right handed pitcher with his velocity is going to need some terrific secondary pitches. He gets A ball hitters out with his palm ball. While it works well in A-Ball scouts question whether it will continue to be effective as he approaches the majors. I would have traded Hu before any of the other 19 players listed before him in the MLB pipeline. He has a chance to be a back end of the rotation starter or reliever. That chance gave him enough value to get a major league reliever who has done a better job of getting right handed batters out than anyone else in their bullpen.

Do we all realize that a half season of numbers from a reliever isn't enough to consider ERA, FIP, xFIP and other ERA predictors? Using them to support an argument about who will be better in the second half creates an empty argument. Only the eyes of a skilled human can discern the pitcher with more value. Over the last three years Jepsen has been extremely good against right handed batters. The Twins need to utilize this skill. He is the best option to get a right handed batter out in the 7th or 8th innings. The Blue Jays and Angels are loaded with right handed batters in the middle of their lineups. It would be a mistake to see him as an 8th inning guy without regard to who will be batting. This is the first year since 2010 where he has faced more left handed batters than right handed batters. I hope the Twins reverse that trend.

I agree about not bringing Hunter back. I think any trade of Nolasco will include cash to cover most of his salary. Trading him won't free up money as they will still be paying for him. It will open a spot in the starting rotation. Berrios and May need to be part of that rotation. They might be wise to start Graham in AAA in the rotation. The bench probably does not work. No one has options when a 13th pitcher is needed. Does Nunez hit well enough to be carried on the roster without a position? The numbers are good this year but the sample is small and it may not be a skill change. It is more likely variation due to sample. They might let him go. I think they will have also DFA'd Danny Santana and Josmil Pinto due to options since they are not rostered.

The Twins might have been able to get Broxton for Amaurys Minier though Collymore has better career numbers on a similar career path. They might have needed to up the cash. Minier and Collymore are a long way from the majors but they are not nothing.

I gues you could look at the guys who moved and look for a comp in the Twins system. Maybe they could have won the Clippard deal by sending Gonsalves and Tapia for example. If a guy didn't move I am going to believe that the asking price was so high no team would deal whether it be today or the all star break.

The price for Jepsen was reasonable. The Twins had to give up something. The Twins see Toronto in a big series next week. Jepsen becomes their best late inning weapon to face the right handed bats of Batista, Encarnacion, Tulowitzki and Donaldson.

It is reasonable that Arcia will be playing for someone next year and put up 25 home runs. I hope it is the Twins in RF.

Nolasco has negative value. If adding him to a trade also means adding more prospects, I would rather keep him and increase payroll.