Mike Rose

As we head into the All-Star break, a number of Minnesota players need to hit the reset button. Will they be able to? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports It’s All-Star week, an excellent time to take stock of your fantasy team and focus on areas where you can improve. You benefit from having a few additional days to analyze your roster and make moves accordingly. It might be tempting during this process to dump all your underperforming players. Get a clean slate to start the second half. While that makes sense in many instances, some first-half duds will undoubtedly be second-half stars. Identifying those players could be the key to winning your league. From a Twins perspective, plenty of players have underperformed, particularly on offense. I’ve listed a handful of the most noteworthy ones below, then rated their likelihood of turning things around on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being no chance at a bounceback and ten a guaranteed big second half. Byron Buxton (8): He’s had some fantasy value due to 15 home runs and eight stolen bases, but a low batting average has knocked him down a bit. I believe a big hot stretch is still in store for Buxton, and I think the opportunity to rest during the break rather than have to play in the All-Star Game will help him a ton. Carlos Correa (7): I also still believe in Correa, but I’m less optimistic that rest alone will give him a big boost. I think he’s too talented to continue struggling, particularly with runners on base. Better luck will help, too: He’s had a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .300 or better the last four years, but he’s at .266 in 2023. If that improves, he could take off. Max Kepler (4): Kepler has shown some signs of life lately, but I’m keeping his score lower because I’m not entirely sure what a bounceback looks like. I think it’s safe to say that his 2019 season was a bit of an aberration, and at this point, he may be a streaky player who alternates between dominant and frustrating. Expecting sustained success seems unlikely, but perhaps a few more good weeks are left in the tank. Joey Gallo (1): I think it’s increasingly clear that Gallo’s early-season surge was a blip on the radar. After posting seven home runs and a 1.063 OPS through the end of April, he’s hit eight home runs and recorded a .662 OPS since then. He’ll continue to hit his share of moonshots, but he’s much too inconsistent for fantasy purposes, and I don’t see that changing. Jorge Lopez (6): I’m unsure what to make of Lopez’s second-half prospects. After missing some time due to mental health reasons, he’s pitched in two games, allowing one run. Lopez has struggled this year overall, with a 4.97 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The break could be another opportunity for him to reset, but there’s no guarantee that time away alone will fix his mound struggles. I’ll remain slightly optimistic for now, but I will need to see signs of progress in the next few weeks. Let’s now look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week and a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also look at the (short) week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid. Twins Injury Updates Royce Lewis Expected return: Mid-August or later Lewis was diagnosed with a Grade 2 oblique strain, which could keep him out of action for six weeks. Jose Miranda remains on the roster, though the Twins may continue to alternate players at third base. Brock Stewart Expected return: Mid-July Stewart hit the injured list toward the end of June with some tendinitis in his right elbow. Manager Rocco Baldelli said the righty could be back “soon” after the break, so his return shouldn’t be too far off. Jorge Polanco Expected return: July or later Polanco recently began making more high-intensity sprints as he recovers from a hamstring strain. Perhaps a rehab stint could be on tap shortly after the break, with a return coming later this month, but nothing has been announced. Stock Rising: Pablo Lopez ESPN Ownership: 95% The newly named first-time All-Star had his best game with the Twins, twirling nine shutout innings with 12 strikeouts. That continued an excellent recent stretch for the righty, who has a 2.72 ERA and 52 strikeouts across his last six starts (39 2/3 innings). The strikeouts, in particular, are boosting his fantasy value, and he’s now third in the majors in that category, behind Spencer Strider and Kevin Gausman. Expect Lopez to continue trending upward in the second half. Stock Falling: Jhoan Duran ESPN Ownership: 44% I’m not hitting the panic button quite yet, but Duran has allowed runs in his last two appearances entering Sunday and in three of his last six outings. The recent stretch shows he’s human and has put a little dent in his stellar ratios, where he derives a decent amount of his fantasy value. However, I think the break helps him, and he gets back to dominating soon, sending his stock back in a positive direction. Prospect Spotlight: Simeon Woods Richardson (Current team: St. Paul) Woods Richardson has a rough 6.79 ERA overall for the Saints, though he’s been better lately, posting a 3.07 ERA over his last three starts. He’s made one appearance for the Twins each of the last two years but has yet to get a real shot to stick, which makes sense, given the team’s rotation depth. Woods Richardson is still an exciting prospect and is probably ready for the majors if an opportunity presents itself. That won’t happen in 2023 without injuries to Minnesota’s current starters, so Woods Richardson is worth keeping in mind, but he’s not an immediate fantasy target. Upcoming Week Matchup Notes 3 Games vs. Oakland (Paul Blackburn, JP Sears, Hogan Harris) It’s a short week for the Twins and an inviting one at that, as Oakland has been at the bottom of the standings all season. The Athletics are last in runs scored and team ERA. Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Sonny Gray are all in good spots to succeed in their starts. Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch Minnesota hitters don’t have much history against Blackburn, Sears, or Harris to conclude from. Harris looks like the best one to target, with a 6.07 ERA. I’ll be most interested to see the lineup coming out of the break and then react accordingly. Correa has recently seen time in the leadoff spot in an effort to get him going, and he’s had some success. Edouard Julien has also increasingly looked like a solid everyday player, at least against righties, and I like his prospects if he continues to hit second behind Correa. Gallo is also worth watching, as he’s been on the bench more often lately, even against righties. The team’s patience seems to be wearing thin, and a move to Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner could be in store when play resumes. Finally, Donovan Solano has forced his way into the lineup most days. He’s batting just under .300 since the beginning of June and is particularly impactful against southpaws. In daily leagues, I like building an affordable stack with Solano, Buxton, and Correa when the Twins face mediocre lefties. Sears and Harris both fall into that category. Do you think any Minnesota players are due for second-half rebounds? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week. View full article

Minnesota hitters have been inconsistent at best to begin the year. Could a clubhouse wake-up call get them going? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins made it clear before Friday’s game that they were ready for a reset. A whiteboard message that read, “Let the season begin…” greeted the team, and while reasonable minds can disagree about whether such motivational gimmicks actually work, there’s no arguing that the offense needed a restart. The key question now is whether they’ll be able to deliver. I remain a believer in Byron Buxton for fantasy purposes. I think there’s too much talent here, and when he gets on a hot streak, the results speak for themselves. I understand the desire to drop him in shallower formats given the so-so production to date (he’s under 57% owned in ESPN leagues, so many folks have already cut ties), but I have him on my team, and I plan to stand pat. I think Carlos Correa is in a similar boat. While we’re well past the point of being able to write off his underwhelming performance due to small sample size, the most important thing for fantasy players to think about is whether they believe he’s capable of a few good months. If you acquired the shortstop today, you wouldn’t really care about his struggles in April, May and June. Your only concern would be what you’ll get in July and onward. We’ve seen Correa put together big months toward the end of a season before, so it’s a reasonable roll of the dice. With his acquisition cost likely pretty low in most leagues, he remains an intriguing lottery ticket. The rest of Minnesota’s hitters are probably best seen as fantasy streamers. Alex Kirilloff has probably been the steadiest of the bunch, but his counting stats don’t jump off the page and he’s available in about 97% of leagues. Joey Gallo and Max Kepler have been much streakier, and again, they’re widely available. Every other regular falls into a similar category. The whiteboard rallying cry may get the Twins going as a team on offense, but fantasy managers don’t need to rush out and add anyone, beyond possibly Buxton and Correa if you believe in them turning things around. For other Minnesota hitters, feel free to add them here and there if they heat up, but don’t get too attached. Let’s now look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid. Twins Injury Updates Royce Lewis Expected return: TBD Lewis strained his left oblique running to first base in Saturday’s game, an injury that figures to take at least a month to recover from. It’s a big blow to the Twins as he was batting .326 as the team’s primary third baseman. Jose Miranda (more on him below) was recalled from St. Paul to fill the roster spot. Brock Stewart Expected return: Mid-July Stewart hit the injured list toward the end of June with some tendinitis in his right elbow. He should be able to return in a few weeks. Griffin Jax will continue to take on an elevated role in the meantime, and he’s pitched very well lately. I wrote about Jax last week as someone to have on your fantasy radar. Jorge Polanco Expected return: July or later Polanco remains on the injured list with a hamstring strain. He’s resumed some baseball activities and could return sometime this month, though a specific date hasn’t been announced. Stock Rising: Bailey Ober ESPN ownership: 41% Ober continues to be a revelation for the Twins and fantasy managers. After tossing seven scoreless innings in Saturday’s win, he now has a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 76 2/3 innings this season. After recording a 3.21 ERA and 1.05 WHIP last year, it seems safe to say that the performance is real. The biggest positive for Ober is the fact that his rotation spot seems secure with Tyler Mahle out of the picture. Ober was on the outside looking in to begin the season, but with a clear path to regular starts, he should remain a strong fantasy contributor. Stock Falling: Alex Kirilloff ESPN ownership: 3% Kirilloff has cooled down some after a hot start. Since the beginning of June, he’s slashing .235/.293/.329. By comparison, he slashed .314/.448/.486 in May. Kirilloff doesn’t deliver enough power to be able to offset a lower batting average, and he sits frequently against southpaws, so it’s understandable for fantasy managers to look in a different direction. Prospect Spotlight Jose Miranda (Current team: MLB) Miranda was recalled Sunday to take over at third base, but he’s spent most of the season in the minors and his MLB roster spot isn’t guaranteed when Lewis is able to return. It will be up to Miranda to prove that he should stick around the rest of the year, possibly seeing time at first base and DH when Lewis is back in the lineup. He was starting to show signs of life with the Saints, posting a .287/.362/.436 slash line in June. Miranda also was good for the Twins as a rookie in 2022, so there is still plenty to like here from a fantasy perspective. If he gets hot in the next few weeks, he could be worth targeting. And if he doesn’t, he could be headed back to St. Paul. Upcoming Week Matchup Notes 3 Games vs Kansas City (Austin Cox, Zack Greinke, Alec Marsh) 3 Games vs Orioles (Cole Irvin, Tyler Wells, Kyle Gibson) The Twins get a soft matchup (on paper, at least) against the struggling Royals, then a rematch against the Orioles at Target Field. Kansas City looks like the spot to target, as the Royals are 28th in team ERA and 29th in runs scored. Two-Start Starting Pitchers Joe Ryan is in line to start Monday and Sunday. He was hammered by Atlanta to the tune of five home runs his last time out, but he gets much easier matchups this week, with the added bonus of pitching at home. The righty looks like a great bounceback candidate. Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch As noted above, Kansas City is not a good pitching team, so they present some intriguing options in daily formats. Cox and Marsh are both inexperienced at the MLB level, while the veteran Greinke has a 5.15 ERA this year. You could build Minnesota stacks any of these days. If you’re looking to bank on past success, Buxton is 7-for-18 all time against Greinke with a triple and a home run. When the Orioles come to town, I’m circling the matchups against Irvin and old friend Kyle Gibson. Irvin has a 7.18 ERA this season, though he did limit the Twins to just one run across five innings Sunday. I’m still feeling pretty good about firing up right-handed Minnesota hitters in this spot. Gibson meanwhile has a 4.66 ERA and has been getting hit around lately. Minnesota hitters don’t have a ton of experience against him, but pretty much anyone is in play if you think Gibson’s struggles will continue. Gallo is worth a quick mention as well with four home runs across his last eight games. The slugger is notoriously streaky, but when he’s on, he can pile up long balls in a hurry. He’s a bit harder to stomach in standard formats due to the drag on your batting average, but if you’re feeling like rolling the dice in daily leagues, Gallo can deliver a ton of value on days when he goes deep. I probably wouldn’t use him against the southpaws Cox or Irvin, but none of the other matchups look too bad. Do you believe in any Minnesota hitters for fantasy? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week. View full article

The dog days of summer are around the corner, which is often when depth is tested, both for MLB teams and fantasy squads. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Welcome back to Twins Fantasy Fix! With the Twins nearing the halfway point of the season, it’s a good time to take a closer look at their depth. MLB seasons are marathons, not sprints, and successful teams routinely need to go to the well to find guys who can help them win. Fantasy squads are no different. Whether due to injuries or players struggling, fantasy rosters go through ups and downs, and savvy managers know how to find diamonds in the rough throughout the year. Here are a few Twins who might fit this bill. Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner: Anyone who spends any time on Twins Twitter knows that fans are clamoring for one or both of Max Kepler and Joey Gallo to get traded or designated for assignment. From a fantasy perspective, any move like that figures to open up a role for either of these two players, or possibly both of them. Larnach is likely first up as he’s seen more time at the MLB level this year, but they could each have a fantasy impact if they see regular playing time due to their power potential. Jose Miranda: Miranda started the year as Minnesota’s primary third baseman, but he struggled and eventually got demoted to Triple-A. Royce Lewis doesn’t figure to relinquish the hot corner, though Miranda could re-emerge, potentially as someone who sees time at third, first and DH. He’s batting .299 this month for the Saints with an .821 OPS, and he obviously had success for the Twins last year, so the offensive skills are there. Fantasy managers should take note if Miranda gets that second chance in the majors this year. Griffin Jax: It looks like Jax’s early-season struggles are behind him. The righty hasn’t allowed a run in his last 14 appearances, with a 0.44 WHIP and 13 strikeouts across 13 2/3 innings during that time. Jhoan Duran is the best Minnesota reliever for fantasy purposes, but he doesn’t always see save chances, with Rocco Baldelli unafraid to use him in the seventh or eighth inning depending on matchups. That could lead to more saves for Jax in the second half of the season if he keeps pitching well and proves to be trustworthy, just like he did last year. Brock Stewart is also in this mix, though if I had to guess, I’d say Jax sees more opportunities in the ninth inning, with Stewart used in high-leverage spots earlier in games. In deeper leagues, Jax has value if he maintains his current form and manages to record a few saves here and there. Let’s now look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid. Twins Injury Updates Byron Buxton Expected return: TBD Here we go again? Buxton left Saturday’s game with back spasms and was not included in Sunday’s lineup. It may be a minor concern, but with Buxton’s injury history, nothing should be taken for granted. He was just heating up at the plate, too, so the timing here is quite unfortunate. A number of players figure to rotate through at DH for however long Buxton is sidelined. UPDATE: Buxton appeared as a pinch hitter Sunday, so it looks like it is a minor concern. He figures to be in the lineup early this week. Jose De Leon Expected return: TBD De Leon left Saturday’s game due to elbow discomfort he felt while tossing warmup pitches. He’s scheduled to undergo an MRI. De Leon was pitching decently for the Twins, though he’s not really on the fantasy radar at this point. Jorge Lopez Expected return: TBD Lopez is sidelined as he deals with mental health concerns. He could regain a prominent role if he returns later in the year, though it looks like Jax and Stewart have elevated themselves as key setup options in front of Duran. Jorge Polanco Expected return: July or later Polanco remains on the injured list with a hamstring strain and does not have a clear timetable for a return. He’s been taking swings and doing some work in the gym, but until a rehab assignment is announced, it’s safe to assume that the infielder will be out for a little while. Stock Rising: Kenta Maeda ESPN ownership: 5% I could have gone with Jax here as well, but Maeda deserves a little love. The righty returned from the injured list Friday and tossed five scoreless innings against Detroit with eight strikeouts. It’s hard to get too excited in fantasy given his struggles earlier this year in his first MLB action since 2021 due to Tommy John surgery. However, Maeda has upside in the right spots, such as matchups against the Tigers or Kansas City. And if the veteran starts to string together multiple good outings, he may be worth a longer look given his track record, including the 2.70 ERA he posted in his first season with the Twins back in 2020. Stock Falling: Joey Gallo ESPN ownership: 5% Gallo went deep on Saturday, but it’s still been a struggle for him lately. That was the first home run for the slugger since May 20, and in the time since then, he’s batting just .133 with an astronomical 48.6% strikeout rate. Gallo will always have a low batting average with plenty of strikeouts, but his recent form has been particularly egregious. If he’s not leaving the yard, he’s an offensive liability for the Twins and fantasy managers. Prospect Spotlight Chris Williams (Current team: Triple-A St. Paul) Williams has been mashing for the Saints this season with 15 home runs and a .996 OPS across 48 games. He’s a bit old for a prospect at 26, but he could simply be a late bloomer. Christian Vazquez isn’t a long-term option at catcher for the Twins, and it’s possible that Williams enters into the mix along with Ryan Jeffers in 2024. Williams may also get a look at some point this season if anything happens to Vazquez or Jeffers, though it would likely be in a reserve role. Upcoming Week Matchup Notes 3 Games at Atlanta (Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver) 3 Games at Orioles (Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Cole Irvin) The Twins are in for a tricky week with road matchups against two teams playing better than .600 baseball. Atlanta is third in runs scored and seventh in team ERA, while Baltimore is 10th and 17th, respectively. Two-Start Starting Pitchers Sonny Gray lines up for starts Monday and Sunday. He’s been good this year but has had some ups and down lately, and both of these matchups look challenging. You’re likely still starting him in standard leagues, but I would look elsewhere in daily formats both days. Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch Strider leads the majors in strikeouts while the rookie Elder has a 2.40 ERA, so I’m not expecting much from Minnesota bats these two days. It lightens up some from there with the inexperienced Smith-Shawver and Kremer, who has a 4.50 ERA. The best matchup looks like Irvin, who has a 7.71 ERA in limited action this year, though he did post a 3.98 ERA in 30 starts for Oakland last year. The Twins haven’t seen a ton of him, though Carlos Correa has gone 3-for-10 in his career with a home run. Vazquez is 6-for-10 all time against the righty. It’s hard to get too excited about Twins hitters in general given their inconsistency. However, Max Kepler is batting .375 over his last five games entering Sunday with three home runs, so he could be worth a dart throw in daily leagues. And if Buxton can return soon he could be ready to take off, as he also had three home runs in his last five games, including two in a game against the Red Sox on Thursday. Who are your deeper Minnesota fantasy options? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week. View full article

Jhoan Duran has been dominant, though it hasn’t always translated to fantasy impact. Will that change the rest of the way? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports There’s a case to be made that Jhoan Duran is the most dominant reliever in the majors at this point. With a fastball that averages a tick under 102 mph along with his filthy “splinker,” Duran is striking out 12 batters per nine innings to go along with a miniscule 1.33 ERA. His strikeout percentage ranks in the 96th percentile across the league, while his xERA is in the 98th percentile. Duran has also given the Twins more than three outs on five occasions this season, making him a useful and versatile bullpen weapon. However, this dominance hasn’t always translated into fantasy success. In ESPN leagues, Duran currently checks in as the 34th rated reliever in their player rater list, checking in around the likes of San Diego’s Stephen Wilson and Cleveland’s Trevor Stephan, who aren’t exactly household names. Duran’s 43 percent ownership rate makes a lot of sense based on this ranking. The problem has been the lack of counting stats. Duran has nine saves so far entering Sunday, which is tied for 21st in the league. He also only has two wins and one hold. While wins can be volatile for a reliever, the saves could trend upward, at least if the Twins remain competitive. Jorge Lopez was seeing save opportunities earlier in the season, but his meltdown has established Duran as the clear top option in the bullpen. He may not always be used in the ninth inning, though, as Rocco Baldelli has been known to use him an inning or two earlier if the matchups are more challenging. Fantasy managers would prefer a strict ninth inning role, though work in the seventh and eighth innings could lead to more holds and possibly some wins. Either way, I’d feel comfortable banking on Duran’s dominance and think his ranking has a good chance of climbing quickly. If he’s available in your league, consider finding a roster spot for him today. Let’s now look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid. Twins Injury Updates Jorge Polanco Expected return: TBD Polanco remains on the injured list with a hamstring strain and does not have a clear timetable for a return. Edouard Julien should continue to serve as the regular second baseman, and the rookie has looked more comfortable lately. He typically bats leadoff against righties, and I like him as a cheaper option in daily leagues in those instances. Kenta Maeda Expected return: June Maeda completed a fourth rehab start for St. Paul on Friday, tossing 81 pitches across 4 1/3 innings. He should be getting close to a return, and based on his recent usage, it looks the Twins want him to return to the rotation. That would likely bump Louie Varland out. Stock Rising: Michael A. Taylor ESPN ownership: 2% Over the last 15 games, Taylor has been the ninth-best fantasy outfielder. He doesn’t help much in the batting average category, but he is making solid contributions with power and speed. Taylor has 10 home runs and 11 stolen bases so far in 64 games, compared to just nine home runs and four steals in 124 games for Kansas City last year. If he keeps this pace up, he could record the first 20-20 campaign of his career. The Twins also don’t seem to be in any rush to use Byron Buxton in center field, so Taylor remains their top defensive option there, meaning he should continue to see regular playing time. There are more exciting fantasy options out there, but Taylor can be useful in deeper leagues. Stock Falling: Sonny Gray ESPN ownership: 90% Gray should still be a solid fantasy option the rest of the way, though he’s taken a step back from earlier in the year. Through his first seven starts, the veteran had a 1.35 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 10.6 K/9, making him look like a Cy Young candidate. However, in seven starts since then, Gray has posted a 3.50 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 8.0 K/9. Those numbers look more like his career rates, so fantasy managers may have to settle for this version of Gray as opposed to the staff ace edition. Prospect Spotlight Brent Headrick (Current team: MLB/Triple-A) Headrick made three appearances for the Twins earlier in the season but has spent most of the year with the Saints, where he’s posted a 4.23 ERA along with 52 strikeouts across 44 2/3 innings. The lefty got recalled for a bulk appearance Saturday and earned the win by tossing 2 1/3 scoreless innings. The strikeouts are a positive sign from his minor league work, along with only walking 11 batters. Being a southpaw also helps, as the Twins currently have only Jovani Moran from the left side out of the bullpen with Caleb Thielbar on the injured list. Headrick’s role isn’t fantasy-friendly yet, though he could carve out a more significant niche moving forward. Upcoming Week Matchup Notes 4 Games vs Red Sox (Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock , Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello) 3 Games at Tigers (Joey Wentz, Michael Lorenzen, Reese Olson) It’s a full week for the Twins, including a rematch against Detroit on the road. The Tigers should be a softer opponent, though the same thing was said before they came in and won the first two games at Target Field. Two-Start Starting Pitchers Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober are both lined up to make multiple starts. They each have been solid lately and are appealing options this week, particularly with their second starts coming against the second-lowest scoring team in the league. Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch None of Minnesota’s opposing pitchers look that intimidating in the week ahead. Bello has the lowest ERA at 3.78, and he’s still a fairly inexperienced option at the MLB level. Houck is also uncertain for his start after taking a line drive to the head in his last outing. It’s unclear who Boston would turn to if Houck misses his turn, but this could be a game to target no matter what. As noted above, I like Julien against righties, and that’s everyone on this slate except for Wentz. The youngster is batting .278 in these matchups with a robust .904 OPS. Alex Kirilloff has been struggling lately, but he’s another good option against righties with a .900 OPS in these matchups. By comparison, Kirilloff has just a .490 OPS against southpaws this year, though he only has 22 plate appearances against them. The lefty on the slate, Wentz, is allowing righties to hit .320 against him with 11 home runs this season. He often doesn’t go that deep into games, though this still looks like a great matchup. Buxton, Carlos Correa and Donovan Solano would be my top options for a stack here. Royce Lewis would also be in play, and Ryan Jeffers could be a bargain option to consider if he’s in the lineup. What’s the fantasy outlook for Duran the rest of the way? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week. View full article

I think this makes a lot of sense. Very small sample size of course, but finished the Toronto series 4-for-12 with two doubles and that big grand slam. And he’s got a .903 OPS so far this month. It’ll take more sustained success to convince folks, but the early signs of a turnaround are there.

Carlos Correa has not been a good fantasy contributor so far, but could better days be ahead? Here’s a case for staying patient. Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports Welcome back to Twins Fantasy Fix! I probably don’t have to tell you that Carlos Correa has been struggling. He’s batting only .212 overall coming into Sunday, and as noted by Twins Daily’s Parker Hageman, a lot of it can be traced to a lack of success against fastballs. Nick Nelson of Twins Daily also pointed out that Correa has struggled with runners in scoring position. These are troubling trends. Not surprisingly, the poor production has led many fantasy managers to part ways with Correa. His ownership is around 73 percent in ESPN leagues and his trade value may be at an all-time low. I’m going to go against the grain, however, and say that it might be a good time to buy low. Why? As Parker notes in his thread, Correa’s swing has been a bit different so far this year, and it’s possible that he tinkers it moving forward. The shortstop made some in-season adjustments last year and it paid off when everything was said and done. In 2022, Correa started to take off in June, as he posted a 1.012 OPS with six home runs. It’s getting a little late this June for Correa to replicate those numbers, but it’s possible that a big month of games is still right around the corner, and his big grand slam on Saturday could be the jump start he needs. The 2022 version of Correa also raked in September and October, posting a 1.001 OPS with seven home runs and 19 RBI. Fantasy managers may not have the patience to wait it out this year, but a month like that could be exactly what’s needed to win a league. It’s understandable if you don’t believe Correa will turn it around, though his history of making in-season adjustments and his strong numbers toward the end of 2022 lend some hope. Plus, he shouldn’t be in any serious danger of being benched at any point. If nothing else, Correa could be a fun lottery ticket if your team needs to mix it up or cover for any injured players. Let’s now look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid. Twins Injury Updates Jorge Polanco Expected return: TBD For the second time this year, Polanco is dealing with a hamstring strain, and this one might be a little more severe. He missed 11 games last time, so expect a longer IL stint this time around. Edouard Julien stands to benefit the most, as he was recalled from Triple-A and should fill in at second base most days. He’s a good low-budget option in daily leagues, especially when he’s leading off. Byron Buxton Expected return: Possibly June 13-15 Buxton took a pitch to the ribs during the Cleveland series and has been out ever since. He avoided a fracture, so it shouldn’t be a long-term absence. Buxton may be able to rejoin the Twins when they start their next homestand. Joey Gallo Expected return: Week of June 12 Gallo hit the injured list last week with a left hamstring strain. He began a rehab assignment with the Saints on Friday and could be ready to return after the weekend. His monster home run for St. Paul on Saturday is a good sign that he’s ready to roll. Kenta Maeda Expected return: June Maeda made his most recent rehab appearance for the Saints on Saturday and cruised through four shutout innings, tossing 60 pitches in the process. It seems like the team wants to get Maeda back in the rotation at some point, possibly quite soon, which could push Louie Varland to a long-relief role or back to Triple-A. Stock Rising: Pablo Lopez ESPN ownership: 93% It’s only one start, but fantasy managers have to be encouraged by Lopez’s most recent outing. He allowed just one run across seven innings and struck out six. Lopez’s 4.25 ERA is higher than his 3.98 career mark, though his 3.78 FIP suggests that better days could be ahead. He also has a strong 10.6 K/9, which is up from 8.7 last season. Lopez isn’t available in a ton of leagues, though you might want to trade for him now if you think he can sustain his recent form. There are certainly signs that he should be able to. Stock Falling: Max Kepler ESPN ownership: 3% Like Correa, Kepler hit a big home run on Saturday, but also like Correa, the outfielder has mostly struggled this year. He’s batting just .197 with a .655 OPS entering Sunday. The difference with Kepler is that the team may be less patient with him than they likely will be with Correa. That’s because the Twins have some other options for the corner outfield spots, including Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and Gallo when he returns. Alex Kirilloff can also play the corner outfield when Donovan Solano plays at first, and Willi Castro can play in the outfield, too. This could leave Kepler on the outside looking in if he doesn’t turn things around. He’s already mostly off the radar in fantasy leagues and that probably doesn’t need to change. Prospect Spotlight Austin Martin (Current team: Triple-A, playing rehab games in Fort Myers) Martin has been on the injured list all year, though he recently began a rehab assignment and could return to St. Paul in the near future. His prospect stock has fallen since coming over in the Jose Berrios trade, though there are still a few things to like. Martin doesn’t seem like he’ll hit for much power at the MLB level, but he should be able to get on base and run plenty. Last year with Double-A Wichita, he recorded a .362 on-base percentage with 34 stolen bases in 39 attempts. Those steals came in just 90 games, too, so he could steal 40 or more bases with extended playing time. If he stays healthy and looks decent with the Saints, Martin could be in line for his MLB debut later this year. Upcoming Week Matchup Notes 2 Games vs Brewers (Corbin Burnes, Colin Rea) 4 Games vs Tigers (Matthew Boyd, Joey Wentz, Jack O’Loughlin, Reese Olson) After a tough stretch of games on the road, things ease up a bit as the Twins return home. The Tigers are last in the majors in runs, and the Brewers are only 25th, so it should be a good week for Minnesota pitchers. In terms of ERA, Milwaukee is a bit better at 12th, though Detroit is 21st and has some fairly inexperienced starters at the moment. Two-Start Starting Pitchers Lopez lines up to start Tuesday and Sunday. As noted above, he was good in his last start and has been missing plenty of bats all year. Both of these matchups look good, so I’d roll the righty out with confidence. Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch Burnes is an ace, but he’s the only pitcher that looks particularly intimidating in the coming week. In particular, I’m looking at the Detroit series as a great chance for Minnesota hitters to feast. Southpaw Boyd has been around for a while, but he’s got a subpar 5.55 ERA this season. Meanwhile, the lefty Wentz has a 7.49 ERA and is allowing righties to bat .291 against him. In daily formats, it might be a good time to fire up Buxton, assuming he’s returned by then. Correa also is very much in play, along with Solano, who excels against southpaws. After Boyd and Wentz is O’Loughlin, who would be making his MLB debut. He’s also a lefty, so the same right-handed batters look like good options. The week ends with Olson, who just made his MLB debut on June 2. There’s obviously not a ton of data on him yet in the majors, though you could definitely consider a stack against Olson, possibly targeting a left-handed bat like Gallo if he’s back in the lineup. Do you still believe in Correa in fantasy? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week. View full article

With Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton both missing time recently, the Twins have been getting offensive production from some different sources. Here’s a look at the fantasy impact. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Welcome back to Twins Fantasy Fix! The Twins continue to pace the AL Central, but frustratingly, they haven’t been able to run away from the pack quite yet in a weak division. Part of the problem has been inconsistent offense, and that can be traced to the team’s stars, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Correa has still yet to really get going at the plate and has missed the last three games with his plantar fasciitis flaring up. Buxton, meanwhile, has missed the last three games as well after taking a pitch to the ribs Thursday. He’s also still dealing with some knee issues and could miss a few more games, though an IL trip hasn’t happened yet. With Correa and Buxton out of the lineup, and Joey Gallo hitting the IL Saturday as well, the Twins have needed to find offense in other places. Two players, in particular, have stood out: Donovan Solano and Willi Castro. Solano is riding a four-game hitting streak coming into Sunday and is batting .379 with a .902 OPS over his last 10 contests. He’s mostly playing at first base, and that could continue in the short term if Alex Kirilloff plays more in the outfield with Gallo out of the lineup. Castro is batting .324 with an .898 OPS across his last 10 games with two home runs. He’s been playing in left and center field as well as in the infield. Castro’s versatility is a boon to the Twins and should help him continue to see regular playing time, at least in the short term. Both Solano and Castro may take a hit when Correa, Buxton, and Gallo are all back in the lineup, but they’re worth a look for now while they’re hot. This is particularly true in daily formats, where their cheaper salaries would allow you to pay up elsewhere. Let’s look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid. Twins Injury Updates Byron Buxton Expected return: TBD As noted above, Buxton took a pitch to the ribs Thursday. He avoided a fracture but was still expected to miss multiple games, including Sunday’s tilt. He may be able to return following Monday’s off day. Carlos Correa Expected return: TBD Correa may be in a similar spot to Buxton, with a return potentially coming after the Monday off day. The shortstop has avoided an IL trip so far due to the plantar fasciitis in his left heel, though the team may still choose to go that route at some point to simply give him time to rest the injury. He’s probably not looking at a long-term absence though the issue could flare up again throughout the season. Joey Gallo Expected return: Mid-June Gallo hit the injured list Saturday with a left hamstring strain and he should miss a few weeks. Kyle Garlick was recalled from Triple-A in a corresponding move and should see playing time against lefties. Kenta Maeda Expected return: June Maeda recently made a couple of rehab starts with the Saints as he continues his recovery from a right triceps strain. Maeda was starting for the Twins when he was last with the team in April, though it’s hard to imagine Bailey Ober or Louie Varland losing their rotation spots given how well they’ve pitched. But Maeda is building up his pitch count to be a starter, so stay tuned. Stock Rising: Royce Lewis ESPN ownership: 16% Lewis is another player who has stepped up lately, with Correa and Buxton missing time. The top prospect has hit the ground running in his return from an ACL tear, posting an .809 OPS and blasting two key home runs through five games. It looks like his regular home this year will be third base, though he’s still a candidate to play in the outfield or at shortstop in the future. For now, Lewis should be able to lock down a regular role at the hot corner, and fantasy managers should take notice, given his pedigree. There may be some growing pains, given how many games he’s missed the past few years, but Lewis seems to have that “it” factor. His big games can really move the needle in fantasy leagues. Stock Falling: Jorge Lopez ESPN ownership: 13% As recently as May 20, Lopez had a 1.31 ERA. Since then, he’s allowed nine earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings, pushing his ERA to 4.50 for the season. The righty was seeing some save opportunities in the early going as well, but he can’t be trusted in high-leverage spots at the moment. Brock Stewart and Griffin Jax are both probably ahead of him in the bullpen pecking order, and Jovani Moran may be as well. Lopez could regain some fantasy value if he finds his early-season form and moves back into a more prominent role, but for now, he should not be on rosters. Prospect Spotlight Jordan Balazovic (Current team: Triple-A) Balazovic was once arguably the team’s top pitching prospect but took a step back following a rough 2022 season. Things have been a little better this year for the 24-year-old with a 4.45 ERA across 28 1/3 innings with the Saints, which have largely come in a relief role. However, he’s struggled lately, posting a 7.43 ERA across his last four appearances. If Balazovic can turn things around, he could be an option to help the Twins’ bullpen at some point, but he’ll likely have to show some consistency at Triple-A first. He’s probably not on the fantasy radar this year, though he still has some fleeting long-term appeal. Upcoming Week Matchup Notes 3 Games at Rays (Zach Eflin, Yonny Chirinos, Tyler Glasnow) 3 Games at Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi, Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman) A tough week is on tap with trips to Tampa and Toronto. The pitching matchups don’t look terrible outside of Gausman and possibly Glasnow as he rounds into form following an injury that delayed the start of his season. However, Minnesota starters will be challenged, as the Rays are second in the majors in runs scored and the Blue Jays are 11th. Two-Start Starting Pitchers Varland lines up to start Tuesday and Sunday. They look like tough spots, but the youngster impressed his last time out in a tricky road start against Houston. Varland now has a solid 3.51 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Trusting him this week is a bit of a roll of the dice, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him continue his strong play, either. Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch As noted in the intro, Solano and Castro are hot right now and are worth keeping an eye on. Meanwhile, Lewis and Kirilloff are probably Minnesota’s biggest offensive threats in the absence of Correa and Buxton. This makes the team fairly cheap to stack at the moment in daily formats, so you can get creative if there’s a matchup or two you like this week and want to roll a few Twins out there. To me, the matchups that stand out are the first two in Toronto. Kikuchi has a decent 4.47 ERA, but the lefty has struggled against right-handed bats the past few years. If Correa is able to return by then, he’s 9-for-18 in his career against Kikuchi. Twins hitters overall have a career .365 batting average against him. Manoah, meanwhile, is struggling this year with a 5.46 ERA and 1.77 WHIP, which are huge steps backward after a strong 2022 campaign. Control has been the biggest issue, as he’s sitting with a rough 6.4 BB/9. No Minnesota hitter has had noteworthy success against him in the past, but really anyone could be in play while Manoah is down. What’s Royce Lewis’ fantasy ceiling this year and beyond? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week. View full article

I hear the concern on batting average, and it is a weak spot for Buxton right now, both in real and fantasy baseball. But he’s been a better fantasy asset than Kyle Farmer — home runs and steals help.

Some Twins have defied preseason predictions. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Happy Memorial Day weekend, Twins fans! As you’re reading this, I’m probably hiking somewhere around Bemidji. I hope you’re able to have a fun and relaxing weekend with family and friends. I also want to thank everyone who has read Twins Fantasy Fix so far. It’s been a blast writing about the Twins from a fantasy perspective, and I hope you have enjoyed these articles. For this holiday weekend, I thought it’d be a good time to check in on the big picture when it comes to Minnesota fantasy performance. Game 54, which will be on Monday against Houston, will officially put us a third of the way through the season. Here’s who I’ve got as the team’s best performers so far alongside my preseason predictions. Offensive MVP: Byron Buxton Preseason pick: Buxton Buxton has been good if not great, but that’s enough to get the nod here. The Twins have been inconsistent on offense, and other contenders in this area have either gotten off to slow starts (Carlos Correa) or not played enough (Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff). While Buxton is only batting .238, his .832 OPS helps offset that, and he’s managed 10 home runs and six stolen bases in 45 games. The most encouraging thing is that he hasn’t gone on the injured list yet (knocks on wood), so the Twins’ plan to use him exclusively as a DH has to be considered a success so far. Fans can debate how big of a loss it is not having Buxton in center field, but fantasy managers shouldn’t care as long as he stays healthy because Buxton should have outfield eligibility in most formats. He’s currently the eighth ranked outfielder in ESPN leagues, and if he stays on the field, more good numbers should come, especially if he can get that average up a bit. Pitching MVP: Joe Ryan Preseason pick: Jhoan Duran This was a harder choice, as the Twins have gotten excellent pitching so far, at least from the starting staff. The bullpen has been a bit dicier, but Duran (and Jorge Lopez, until recently) has been good, so I’m not feeling too bad about my preseason pick. Duran has a 1.47 ERA, 24 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings and leads the team with seven saves. All that said, this ultimately comes down to two players at the moment in my mind: Ryan and Sonny Gray. The latter leads the MLB in ERA (1.82), but Ryan isn’t far behind (2.21) and he’s ahead of Gray in wins, strikeouts and WHIP. Ryan is actually second in the majors with seven wins, and his 70 strikeouts are good for ninth. Wins can be tricky to chase in fantasy, but Ryan’s 2.32 FIP suggests that he can keep up the solid work and be a top-line fantasy contributor the rest of the way. Considering that he wasn’t a particularly high draft pick in most leagues, fantasy players who have him have to be ecstatic about their return on investment so far. Sleeper: Bailey Ober Preseason pick: Max Kepler Kepler is currently out with a hamstring injury and was inconsistent while in the lineup, so Ober is an easy pick here. He was in St. Paul to start the season, and while Minnesota fans probably expected to see him at some point, fantasy players can be excused for not having the righty on their radars. However, he’s been excellent since joining the rotation in place of an injured Kenta Maeda. Across six starts, Ober has a 2.55 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings. Maeda should return at some point, but with Tyler Mahle lost for the year, Ober should have a rotation spot locked up for the foreseeable future. He had some MLB success in 2021 and 2022 as well, so this production isn’t coming completely out of the blue. Ober is currently owned in around 37% of ESPN leagues, which is up significantly from early April. If he continues to pitch like this, that number should continue to climb. Super sleeper: Brock Stewart Preseason pick: Edouard Julien Julien did make his MLB debut and has shown flashes of potential with three home runs and a .864 OPS across 46 at-bats. However, it’s unclear if he’ll stick in the majors when Polanco returns. Julien is definitely worth keeping tabs on in fantasy leagues, particularly keeper or dynasty formats, but his short-term outlook remains murky. Stewart is my pick here because he’s come out of nowhere to become a significant contributor for Minnesota. He’s yet to allow an earned run over 14 appearances, has struck out 15 across 14 innings, and even picked up his first career save since 2017 this weekend. His 11 walks are way too many, and he’ll have to exhibit better control if he wants to sustain his success, but it’s hard to argue with a 0.00 ERA. As I wrote about last week, Stewart probably isn’t worth owning in most leagues quite yet, but if anything happens to Duran, or if Lopez continues his downward trend, he becomes way more interesting. For now, Stewart has probably leapfrogged Griffin Jax in the Twins’ bullpen pecking order. Who have been your Minnesota fantasy MVPs and sleepers so far? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus share your outlook for Twins players the rest of the way. View full article

With Griffin Jax and Emilio Pagan having some struggles this past week, the Twins’ bullpen has been short on reliable options. Does that matter in fantasy? Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins bullpen has become a regular topic of discussion on Twins Twitter (mostly for negative reasons). Blowing leads is a sore subject among fans, and Emilio Pagan and Griffin Jax had some rough outings this past week that led to Minnesota losses. Jax in particular has been struggling. After posting a 3.36 ERA and going 7-4 in relief last season, the righty has regressed to a 5.59 ERA and 2-6 record this year. This definitely matters to the Twins and their fans, but does it matter to fantasy players? Jax and Pagan are unlikely to be owned in many leagues, so the short answer is “no.” However, there is some secondary impact. For one, it solidifies Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez as the clear-cut top options in the bullpen. That really wasn’t in question, though there was some thought that Jax could be used in the eighth and ninth innings at certain points if he pitched well. That seems unlikely now. Duran and Lopez already had value in fantasy leagues, but they could be even more valuable if Rocco Baldelli leans on them a bit more and their usage ticks upward slightly. Obviously, blowing leads has a clear negative impact on starting pitchers because they miss out on potential wins. Joe Ryan’s 6-1 record has been a big part of his early-season fantasy value. If the Twins continue to let leads slip away in the middle innings, all the starters take a small hit, though Ryan, Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober should continue to be fine fantasy options, while Louie Varland has held his own lately, too. One final note on the bullpen: Brock Stewart is a little more interesting if Jax continues to struggle. It’s hard to see anyone outside of Duran or Lopez having a ton of fantasy appeal, but in deeper leagues, it’s worth keeping an eye on most relievers who are pitching well. Stewart could be a Duran or Lopez injury away from stepping into a setup role, which would likely lead to more holds and possibly some save opportunities. He’s not worth adding now, but he’s a lot closer to the fantasy radar than he was at the start of the year. Let’s look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid. Twins Injury Updates Byron Buxton Expected return: TBD In what’s become an annual tradition, there is unfortunately some Buxton injury news to report. He left Saturday’s game with knee tightness and won’t play Sunday. On a more fortunate note, the Twins are saying it’s a minor issue, at least for now. Stay tuned to lineups on Monday to see if the panic meter should rise any higher. Jorge Polanco Expected return: TBD The Twins placed Polanco on the injured list Saturday due to a hamstring strain. He had been performing well at the plate with a .284 average, four home runs and 14 RBI in 23 games. Hamstring injuries can be tricky, so it’s unclear at this point when Polanco will be ready to return. This paves the way for the return for Edouard Julien, who gets a big boost in fantasy value if he sees regular action at second base. Nick Gordon Expected return: TBD Gordon is out indefinitely with a fractured right leg. It’s a blow to the Twins’ depth given his ability to play multiple positions, but it doesn’t have a huge impact on fantasy leagues. Kyle Farmer likely gets a slight boost in fantasy value as a result, though he’s already been seeing regular playing time lately at third base (and doing quite well – more on that below). Max Kepler Expected return: TBD Kepler ran recently for the first time since injuring his hamstring, but there’s no clear date for his return. Trevor Larnach continues to serve as Kepler’s replacement and he’s been inconsistent at the plate, though he’s shown flashes of potential throughout the season. Kyle Garlick is also back on the MLB roster in place of Gordon, so he’ll likely have occasional value in daily formats when he starts against lefties, just like he has in the past. Kenta Maeda Expected return: TBD Maeda remains sidelined with a right triceps strain without a clear timetable for his return. Louie Varland has mostly done well in his place with a 4.18 ERA and 31 strikeouts across 28 innings. Home runs continue to be his main weakness, as he’s given up seven in those 28 innings. Royce Lewis Expected return: Early June Lewis has been hitting the cover off the ball in his rehab assignment, which has to be getting Minnesota fans and fantasy players alike excited. When Lewis is able to return, he’ll likely see time at third base and possibly in center field. He should play often no matter where he is in the field, as the Twins could use an offensive jolt. Fantasy managers may want to stash Lewis in an IL spot now, as he has the talent to make a big impact later this season. Twins Fantasy Player Trends Stock Rising: Kyle Farmer ESPN ownership: 3% It’s probably time to give this dude a little more recognition. Farmer has been solid for Minnesota with a .319 average, three home runs, 14 RBI and 15 runs scored across 21 games. He’s also taken over as the regular third baseman following the demotion of Jose Miranda. The eventual return of Lewis may complicate things, but if Farmer continues to hit, he’ll find his way in the lineup most days. As an added bonus, he’s likely eligible at third and shortstop in a lot of leagues, and he could gain eligibility at second if he sees more time there in place of Polanco. Anybody who starts most days, has dual-position eligibility and bats above .300 is worth at least considering in most fantasy formats. Stock Falling: Byron Buxton ESPN ownership: 74% This is solely based on his uncertain health status and his well-documented injury history. For now, the Twins are saying Buxton is dealing with a minor knee issue, but we’ve seen things snowball in the past with the outfielder. At the very least, fantasy managers should begin thinking about some backup plans if Buxton needs an IL stint. Lewis makes a lot of sense depending on when he returns, and he could see time at both DH and in center field. For Buxton, his fantasy value the rest of the season is tied directly to his availability. He’s dynamic when he’s in the lineup but obviously not much use when he’s not. One immediate concern, whether Buxton misses extended time or not, is the possibility that he runs less. Buxton was already running less than he did as a younger player, though he did have two stolen bases in a game at Dodger Stadium this past week. We may not see him record a game with multiple steals the rest of the way if Minnesota gets more cautious. Prospect Spotlight Matt Wallner (Current team: Triple-A) Wallner continues to toe the line between Triple-A and the majors. He’s played in 29 games for the Saints and posted a strong .902 OPS so far. The outfielder saw action in six games for Minnesota earlier in the year and failed to record a hit. Last year, Wallner managed his first two MLB home runs in limited action. It’s clear that he’s probably too good for Triple-A but hasn’t quite gotten a full-time shot yet in the majors. With Kepler out, right field could be an option if Larnach falls into another extended slump. Wallner may also get the call at some point if Buxton misses time and the Twins need some DH candidates. For now, Wallner is a AAAA guy waiting in the wings. Upcoming Week Matchup Notes 3 Games vs Giants (Alex Cobb, Sean Manaea, Anthony DeSclafani) 3 Games vs Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios) After coming back from their West Coast road trip, the Twins will welcome another West Coast team before getting guests from Canada. Minnesota also welcomes back old friend Jose Berrios. San Francisco seems to be the easier opponent on paper, and the Twins are lined up to use Ober, Gray and Ryan in the series. I’d fire all three of them up with confidence in those spots. Two-Start Starting Pitchers Ober lines up to start Monday and Sunday. The Giants matchup looks positive, as they’re just 21st in the league in runs scored. Toronto is a bit better at 13th, though it’s hard not to like Ober at pitcher-friendly Target Field. He’s a good target in leagues with weekly lineups. I also like Ober in daily formats on Monday. Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch The best matchups this week appear to be against Manaea and Berrios. Manaea has a 7.81 ERA and 1.70 WHIP, and the lefty is allowing righties to hit .299 against him this year. Carlos Correa is just 8-for-43 (.186 average) against Manaea all time, but he might be worth considering here along with Farmer and Buxton if he’s healthy. Berrios, meanwhile, has a 4.61 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and lefties are hitting .303 against him this year. So this would essentially be the opposite of the Manaea matchup, as you’d want to look at the likes of Larnach and Joey Gallo as the centerpieces of a stack in daily formats. The other matchups this week look like they could be pitchers’ duels. Cobb has a sub-2.00 ERA, DeSclafani has a sub-1.00 WHIP, and Gausman and Bassitt have both been stingy for the Blue Jays. These would all be contrarian plays in daily formats. One sneaky note: Christian Vazquez is 12-for-19 in his career against Cobb, so he’d be a cheap and lightly used dart throw in DFS (assuming he’s in the lineup). I’m also keeping my eye on second base with Polanco out. Willi Castro got the start there on Saturday, but he feels like a reserve option for this team. Julien will probably see more time here moving forward and could be useful this week with the Twins only facing the one lefty. To that point, he’s in the lineup Sunday as the cleanup hitter. Any Twins-related fantasy insights to share? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week. View full article

Jose Miranda is gone, Alex Kirilloff is raking, and Royce Lewis is on the horizon. Here’s a closer look at the fantasy impact of these developments. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Welcome back to Twins Fantasy Fix! First things first: Happy Mother’s Day to all the wonderful moms out there. You are the real superstars and MVPs. Thanks for all that you do! We’re about a quarter of the way through the MLB season, so the sample is probably large enough to draw some conclusions about the Twins from a fantasy perspective. On the pitching side, the squad has been outstanding. Minnesota’s 3.30 team ERA is third in the majors. Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray have both been fantasy aces, while Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez have been excellent in relief. They say a rising tide lifts all boats, and it appears that’s largely been true of the Twins, as these great individual performers all seem to motivate each other. There’s a lot to like here from a fantasy angle. Meanwhile, Minnesota bats have been more middle of the pack, as the team is currently 13th in runs scored. Fantasy performances have been all over the board as well: Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo lead the team with eight home runs each, but they’re batting just .215 and .209, respectively. Carlos Correa’s struggles have been well documented, though a .220 BABIP suggests he’s been pretty unlucky as well. Jose Miranda was demoted to Triple-A on Wednesday. Alex Kirilloff is batting a robust .438, though he’s only played in seven games so far. There’s upside for Minnesota hitters, but fantasy managers may need to be patient. Let’s look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid. Twins Injury Updates Tyler Mahle Expected return: 2024? Tommy John surgery is coming for Mahle, which is a huge blow to him and the Twins. Without getting into the bigger picture here in terms of real baseball (Matthew Taylor’s piece has you covered), the fantasy baseball impact is pretty clear: Mahle should be dropped and Bailey Ober should be locked into a rotation spot. The latter has been really good in four starts, so fantasy managers should definitely have him on the radar. Max Kepler Expected return: TBD Kepler hit the injured list Saturday with a hamstring strain. Hamstrings can be tricky, so for now, his return date is uncertain. Trevor Larnach was recalled from Triple-A to fill the roster spot. His earlier struggles led to a demotion and Kirilloff’s call-up, but maybe a second chance is what Larnach needs. He’ll likely play most days in right field with Kepler out, while Kirilloff should cover first. Fantasy managers definitely don’t need to scramble and pick up Larnach, though he should be monitored in case he gets hot. Kenta Maeda Expected return: TBD Maeda remains sidelined with a right triceps strain without a clear timetable for his return. As noted above, Mahle’s injury has opened the door for Ober, while Maeda’s absence is giving Louie Varland a chance. Varland hasn’t been quite as sharp as Ober, though his 10.8 K/9 is intriguing. Limiting home runs will be the key to Varland’s future success. Royce Lewis Expected return: Early June Lewis has started a rehab assignment with Double-A Wichita. He’s stolen two bases in two games so far, so the knee looks good in the early going. The Twins will undoubtedly be cautious with the talented 23-year-old as he ramps up, but his return is on the horizon. That could be further bad news for Miranda. More on him below. Twins Fantasy Player Trends Stock Rising: Alex Kirilloff ESPN ownership: 3% As mentioned previously, Kirilloff is batting .438 across seven games coming into Sunday. He’s also chipped in two home runs, three RBI, and four runs scored. It’s an impressive start for the first baseman, who will likely see his ownership tick upward. Of course, it’s a small sample size, so some regression will likely come. The team will also likely continue to give him frequent rest days to manage his wrist. All that said, he is the team’s primary option at first and should occupy a premium lineup spot most days. There’s fantasy upside here. Stock Falling: Jose Miranda ESPN ownership: 46% The impending return of Lewis looked like the end of the road for Miranda, but it actually came sooner, as the Twins demoted him with the return of Kyle Farmer. That the Twins kept Willi Castro on the active roster ahead of Miranda shows the full scale of the latter’s struggles. Lewis’ return will only make it harder for Miranda to return to the majors, as Royce could take over as the primary third baseman. With nowhere else to play on a regular basis, Miranda could stick with St. Paul through the end of the year unless the Twins suffer any injuries. In season-long leagues, he’s an easy drop candidate. In dynasty formats, Miranda’s sophomore season has been concerning, though he still has long-term value, which he put on display toward the end of 2022 with the Twins. Prospect Spotlight Ronny Henriquez (Current team: Triple-A) Henriquez started the year on the IL due to right elbow inflammation but recently completed a rehab assignment and will stick with the Saints for now. The young righty looked good in a small sample for the Twins last season, so he’s a candidate to return to the MLB bullpen at some point this summer. Henriquez has worked as a starter and reliever in the minors and could be a long-relief option for Minnesota. He likely won’t have a ton of fantasy impact in 2023, though he could vulture some wins and provide decent ratios. His outlook in 2024 and beyond is more promising, as Henriquez has good stuff and could carve out a larger role with the Twins. Upcoming Week Matchup Notes 3 Games at Dodgers (Noad Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May) 3 Games at Angels (Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Shohei Ohtani) The Twins head out west for a Los Angeles road trip. Kershaw and Ohtani are the names that jump out among the probable starters, and it’s hard to feel good about Minnesota hitters in either of those two spots. A few other matchups look more promising, however. Two-Start Starting Pitchers Pablo Lopez is lined up to start Monday and Sunday. The Dodgers are fourth in the majors in runs while the Angels are sixth, so the matchups both look challenging. I’m probably rolling Lopez out for both given his success so far this season, though you can probably find better options in daily leagues those two days. Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch As noted above, I’m probably avoiding the Kershaw and Ohtani games, for obvious reasons. Monday is more interesting, as Syndergaard is dealing with a finger issue and could miss the start, with 24-year-old Gavin Stone as the likely replacement. Even if Syndergaard goes, it’s still a spot I like, as he’s been underwhelming this year with a 6.12 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 5.85 K/9. Minnesota hasn’t seen a ton of him all time, though Twins hitters are 10-for-34 combined in their careers against the righty. Detmers looks like the most exploitable Angels pitcher with his 4.89 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Correa has seen him the most and has gone 2-for-7 with a home run. You could also consider a Twins stack against Sandoval as a somewhat contrarian play, as he’s been pretty solid with a 3.41 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He’s also a lefty who doesn’t miss a ton of bats, so Buxton and Correa could both line up nicely. One final note here on Ryan Jeffers. Christian Vazquez has been slumping lately, which has led to an uptick in playing time for Jeffers behind the plate. The latter has done well with a .292 batting average and .872 OPS across 48 at-bats. If Jeffers continues to see his playing time increase in the week ahead, he becomes an interesting option due to his power potential at a thin position. Who have been the best and worst Twins in fantasy a quarter of the way through the season? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus share your thoughts on the matchups this week. View full article

That’s a good point. He’s certainly droppable if you need to, and in a lot of leagues he’s not even owned right now, but a stash makes sense in some formats.

The Twins made some big moves with a pair of young hitters and have also seen some rotation shakeups. Here’s a closer look at what it means from a fantasy perspective. Image courtesy of © Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports Welcome back to Twins Fantasy Fix! The big news this past week was the team’s decision to essentially replace Trevor Larnach with Alex Kirilloff. After a hot start, Larnach had fallen into a slump, and coupled with Kirilloff’s strong play in the minors, the move made sense. We’ll take a closer look at Larnach below, but for Kirilloff, this is a big opportunity. The biggest issue for the 25-year-old has been health, as he’s played just 104 total games at the MLB level the last two years. Kirilloff certainly has the talent to be a strong fantasy contributor if he can stay on the field. Let’s look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid. Twins Injury Updates Tyler Mahle Expected return: TBD Woof. The Twins’ trade for Mahle at last year’s deadline has not gone as expected, as the righty has missed significant time with injuries since joining the club and is now on the 60-day IL. Depending on your league settings, he could be stashed in an IL spot, but it’s also understandable to just cut Mahle at this point and move on. The silver lining here is that with Mahle out, along with Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober should have a chance to take off (more on him below). The same is true for Louie Varland to some extent, but he’s more likely to be bounced from the rotation when Maeda is able to return. Ober’s starting spot looks more secure. Kenta Maeda Expected return: This month Speaking of Maeda, he’s been on the IL since April 29 with a right triceps strain. The righty should be able to return sometime this month, and with Mahle also out, it seems likely that the team will slot Maeda back in as the No. 5 starter, bumping Varland. If it came down to just Ober and Maeda for a spot, the Twins would likely stick with the former, and it’s possible that they do that with Varland and move Maeda to a long-relief role. Still, the smart money is probably on Varland returning to Triple-A and Maeda getting another shot at starting when healthy. Fantasy managers should keep their expectations tempered, however, as Maeda hasn’t looked great yet this season. Caleb Thielbar Expected return: TBD Thielbar hit the 15-day IL on Friday with a right oblique strain and it remains to be seen how long he’ll be out. This is a bigger blow to the Twins than fantasy players, as Thielber serves as the team’s top lefty out of the bullpen but he’s not regularly seeing save opportunities. Jovani Moran probably gets a slight bump here, but he’s also mostly off the fantasy radar. If anything, a little more responsibility may fall on Minnesota’s top two relievers from a fantasy perspective: Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez. Twins Fantasy Player Trends Stock Rising: Bailey Ober ESPN ownership: 13% I could have gone Kirilloff here, but with him just joining the team Saturday, I’ll wait at least a week to see how things shake out there. For Ober, opportunity presented itself a little sooner, and he’s certainly made the most of it. He’s made three starts for the Twins and has allowed only two earned runs across 18 1/3 innings with 16 strikeouts. Ober likely won’t stay quite this good, but it doesn’t entirely seem like a fluke, as he’s had success in the majors before and also had an impressive spring training leading into this season. As noted above, Mahle’s injury coupled with Maeda being out should strengthen Ober’s hold on a rotation spot, and with the way he’s pitching, it would be surprising to see the Twins move him to the bullpen or Triple-A. Ober is at worst a good streaming option at the moment, and in deeper formats, you could definitely grab and hold. Stock Falling: Trevor Larnach ESPN ownership: 3% Earlier this season, I had Larnach in the “stock rising” section, noting that he looked like a key offensive piece. Things can change quickly in baseball. Larnach is now in Triple-A given his struggles plus the return of Kirilloff. In single-season fantasy formats, this obviously tanks his value, though he’ll likely be back up at some point. In dynasty formats, this also puts a dent in Larnach’s profile, as it’s a bit concerning to see a 26-year-old go in the wrong direction. The talent and pedigree are still there for Larnach to be a good MLB player, but the Twins also have the likes of Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, and Royce Lewis in the system, so Larnach will have to play well to earn his spot moving forward. Prospect Spotlight Royce Lewis (Current team: AA-Witchita) Lewis has been playing in Florida Complex League games as he continues to rehab from ACL surgery. The youngster has only played a few innings at a time with some rest in between appearances, but he'll begin a rehab assignment with AA-Witchita this week and then possibly make his full return next month. Lewis demonstrated last year just what kind of impact he can have, albeit in a small sample size. His return to health will be interesting to watch, as the Twins will have to decide how to use him. Lewis could play center field in place of Michael A. Taylor, who hasn’t done much with the bat but does provide good defense at the position. Shortstop is another possibility, but even with Carlos Correa struggling, he should be locked in there. That leaves third base as the most likely landing spot. With Jose Miranda struggling as well in the early going, he could be the one on the hot seat when Lewis is ready to return. Upcoming Week Matchup Notes 3 Games vs Padres (Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Yu Darvish) 3 Games vs Cubs (Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski, Marcus Stroman) The Twins will return home for a pair of unfamiliar opponents. Both the Padres and Cubs are hovering around .500. Despite San Diego’s high-end talent, Chicago actually looks like the tougher matchup on paper right now, as their 3.44 team ERA is fourth in the league, right behind the Twins. Offensively, the Cubs are ninth in runs scored. Meanwhile, the Padres are 14th in team ERA and 19th in runs scored. Two-Start Starting Pitchers Louie Varland sets up for two starts this week and he looks like a risky proposition, albeit with upside. The youngster has 14 strikeouts in just 10 2/3 innings this season, but he’s also given up four home runs and has a 5.91 ERA. Obviously, it’s a small sample size, and your willingness to use Varland should depend on how confident you are that he’ll be able to keep the ball in the ballpark while still missing plenty of bats. As noted above, Chicago has been the tougher matchup of the two teams for opposing pitchers. Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch Of all the matchups in the coming week, I’m probably targeting the first one against Wacha. His 5.46 ERA is the highest of any of the six scheduled starters. He also has a 1.15 HR/9 this season and a 1.65 mark over the past three years, so Minnesota hitters may be able to get to him with the long ball. Christian Vasquez is 5-for-9 in his career against Wacha, while Max Kepler is 3-for-10 with two doubles and a home run. I’m not necessarily running away from the remaining matchups during the week, though Stroman has been pretty good with a 2.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. You could certainly consider Minnesota stacks against any of these starters as slight contrarian plays. Smyly is the lone southpaw on the slate, and Donovan Solano is 4-for-12 lifetime against him. You could also consider the righty bats of Byron Buxton and Correa (he has to get going eventually, right?) if you want to go all in on the right-left split. I’ll also be keeping a close eye on Kirilloff this week. After joining the team Saturday, he made a pinch-hit appearance that day, and as of writing this, he’s set for his first start of the year Sunday. It would seem that he’ll take over as the regular first baseman in the near future, though the Twins may ease him back into action. With five righties on the slate this week, things line up favorably for Kirilloff, but you’ll, of course, want to check that he’s actually in the lineup before deploying him in daily formats. In weekly formats, it may be best to wait this week out to see how often he plays and how he looks at the plate. What are your expectations for Kirilloff as a fantasy asset the rest of the way? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus share your thoughts on the matchups this week. View full article