Twins Fantasy Fix (6/18): Duran Due for More?

There’s a case to be made that Jhoan Duran is the most dominant reliever in the majors at this point. With a fastball that averages a tick under 102 mph along with his filthy “splinker,” Duran is striking out 12 batters per nine innings to go along with a miniscule 1.33 ERA. His strikeout percentage ranks in the 96th percentile across the league, while his xERA is in the 98th percentile. Duran has also given the Twins more than three outs on five occasions this season, making him a useful and versatile bullpen weapon.

However, this dominance hasn’t always translated into fantasy success. In ESPN leagues, Duran currently checks in as the 34th rated reliever in their player rater list, checking in around the likes of San Diego’s Stephen Wilson and Cleveland’s Trevor Stephan, who aren’t exactly household names. Duran’s 43 percent ownership rate makes a lot of sense based on this ranking.

The problem has been the lack of counting stats. Duran has nine saves so far entering Sunday, which is tied for 21st in the league. He also only has two wins and one hold. While wins can be volatile for a reliever, the saves could trend upward, at least if the Twins remain competitive. Jorge Lopez was seeing save opportunities earlier in the season, but his meltdown has established Duran as the clear top option in the bullpen. He may not always be used in the ninth inning, though, as Rocco Baldelli has been known to use him an inning or two earlier if the matchups are more challenging. Fantasy managers would prefer a strict ninth inning role, though work in the seventh and eighth innings could lead to more holds and possibly some wins. Either way, I’d feel comfortable banking on Duran’s dominance and think his ranking has a good chance of climbing quickly. If he’s available in your league, consider finding a roster spot for him today.

Let’s now look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates

Jorge Polanco
Expected return: TBD
Polanco remains on the injured list with a hamstring strain and does not have a clear timetable for a return. Edouard Julien should continue to serve as the regular second baseman, and the rookie has looked more comfortable lately. He typically bats leadoff against righties, and I like him as a cheaper option in daily leagues in those instances.

Kenta Maeda
Expected return: June
Maeda completed a fourth rehab start for St. Paul on Friday, tossing 81 pitches across 4 1/3 innings. He should be getting close to a return, and based on his recent usage, it looks the Twins want him to return to the rotation. That would likely bump Louie Varland out.

Stock Rising: Michael A. Taylor
ESPN ownership: 2%
Over the last 15 games, Taylor has been the ninth-best fantasy outfielder. He doesn’t help much in the batting average category, but he is making solid contributions with power and speed. Taylor has 10 home runs and 11 stolen bases so far in 64 games, compared to just nine home runs and four steals in 124 games for Kansas City last year. If he keeps this pace up, he could record the first 20-20 campaign of his career. The Twins also don’t seem to be in any rush to use Byron Buxton in center field, so Taylor remains their top defensive option there, meaning he should continue to see regular playing time. There are more exciting fantasy options out there, but Taylor can be useful in deeper leagues. 

Stock Falling: Sonny Gray
ESPN ownership: 90%
Gray should still be a solid fantasy option the rest of the way, though he’s taken a step back from earlier in the year. Through his first seven starts, the veteran had a 1.35 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 10.6 K/9, making him look like a Cy Young candidate. However, in seven starts since then, Gray has posted a 3.50 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 8.0 K/9. Those numbers look more like his career rates, so fantasy managers may have to settle for this version of Gray as opposed to the staff ace edition.

Prospect Spotlight
Brent Headrick  (Current team: MLB/Triple-A)
Headrick made three appearances for the Twins earlier in the season but has spent most of the year with the Saints, where he’s posted a 4.23 ERA along with 52 strikeouts across 44 2/3 innings. The lefty got recalled for a bulk appearance Saturday and earned the win by tossing 2 1/3 scoreless innings. The strikeouts are a positive sign from his minor league work, along with only walking 11 batters. Being a southpaw also helps, as the Twins currently have only Jovani Moran from the left side out of the bullpen with Caleb Thielbar on the injured list. Headrick’s role isn’t fantasy-friendly yet, though he could carve out a more significant niche moving forward.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
4 Games vs Red Sox (Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock , Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello)
3 Games at Tigers (Joey Wentz, Michael Lorenzen, Reese Olson)
It’s a full week for the Twins, including a rematch against Detroit on the road. The Tigers should be a softer opponent, though the same thing was said before they came in and won the first two games at Target Field.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers 
Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober are both lined up to make multiple starts. They each have been solid lately and are appealing options this week, particularly with their second starts coming against the second-lowest scoring team in the league.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
None of Minnesota’s opposing pitchers look that intimidating in the week ahead. Bello has the lowest ERA at 3.78, and he’s still a fairly inexperienced option at the MLB level. Houck is also uncertain for his start after taking a line drive to the head in his last outing. It’s unclear who Boston would turn to if Houck misses his turn, but this could be a game to target no matter what.

As noted above, I like Julien against righties, and that’s everyone on this slate except for Wentz. The youngster is batting .278 in these matchups with a robust .904 OPS. Alex Kirilloff has been struggling lately, but he’s another good option against righties with a .900 OPS in these matchups. By comparison, Kirilloff has just a .490 OPS against southpaws this year, though he only has 22 plate appearances against them.

The lefty on the slate, Wentz, is allowing righties to hit .320 against him with 11 home runs this season. He often doesn’t go that deep into games, though this still looks like a great matchup. Buxton, Carlos Correa and Donovan Solano would be my top options for a stack here. Royce Lewis would also be in play, and Ryan Jeffers could be a bargain option to consider if he’s in the lineup.

What’s the fantasy outlook for Duran the rest of the way? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.