Twins Fantasy Fix (4/30): Time to Worry About Carlos Correa?

Welcome back to Twins Fantasy Fix! The Twins are in first place in the AL Central, and while they’re playing well, this position is also partly by default. The Guardians have looked middle of the road, while the White Sox, Tigers and Royals have all been mostly terrible. From a fantasy perspective, this should give Minnesota players a boost the rest of the way if they can beat up on these subpar teams. 

Let’s look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid. And new this week: a prospect spotlight!

Twins Injury Updates

Kenta Maeda
Expected return: Mid-May

Maeda took a liner off his ankle in a recent start, and now he’s dealing with a triceps strain, which forced him to the injured list on Saturday. While he should be able to recover after some rest, the bigger story here is whether Bailey Ober, who was called up to replace Maeda on the roster, takes a rotation spot and runs with it. Ober was good this spring and looked sharp in a spot start last weekend against the Nationals. It’s very possible that Ober settles in as the team’s No. 5 starter, which would push Maeda into a long-relief role when he returns. Either way, Maeda’s fantasy stock is trending down and Ober's is trending up.

Alex Kirilloff
Expected return: Soon

Kirilloff has been on a rehab assignment with the Saints and recently played consecutive nine-inning games for the first time, so his return to the majors should happen soon. The path to regular at-bats is a little bit complicated, however, with all of his positions occupied by productive players at the big-league level. The Twins optioned Kirilloff when he rehab stint concluded on Sunday, meaning he'll basically need to wait for an opportunity.

Kyle Farmer
Expected return: Mid-May

Farmer is expected to begin a rehab assignment soon after suffering a scary injury via a pitch to the face in the White Sox series. While Farmer is progressing, his fantasy value looks to have taken a hit from the return of Jorge Polanco as well as the eventual return of Kiriloff. The Twins will have a crowded infield, so Farmer looks like nothing more than a bench option once he’s healthy. He should be an asset to Minnesota against lefties, but his playing time probably won’t be consistent enough to warrant consideration in most fantasy leagues. 

Tyler Mahle
Expected return: TBD

Mahle is dealing with right elbow impingement and will be shut down for at least four weeks, according to manager Rocco Baldelli. After that, it’s anyone’s guess, but with Mahle already dealing with a handful of arm ailments during his short time with the Twins, odds are the team exercises extreme caution here. With Ober filling in for Kenta Maeda, Louie Varland seems like the top candidate to replace Mahle.

Like Ober, Varland has shown to be a more-than-capable MLB starter in a small sample, with strikeout stuff and good control. If he gets extended run in the rotation, he’s worth a look in fantasy leagues, and is probably more available in deep leagues at the moment than Ober.

For Mahle, this is another disappointing development, and he probably is worth cutting unless you want to move him to an IL spot when the Twins likely do the same in the next day or two.

Twins Fantasy Player Trends

Stock Rising: Sonny Gray
ESPN ownership: 89%

In my league, Gray was available on waivers after the draft, but that is no longer the case. The veteran’s ownership rate is climbing, and for good reason, as he came out of Sunday’s start with a 0.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Those figures are likely unsustainable, though Gray seems determined to prove that he can be a true ace, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t continue to have success. Part of the reason for optimism is that he’s missing bats, with 34 strikeouts across 29 innings so far.That’s a 10.6 K/9, which is up from the 8.8 K/9 he posted last season. Gray might not be a true top-tier fantasy pitcher, but his ceiling could be pretty close to that if he keeps pitching like this.

Honorable mention: Polanco. The second baseman has raked since making his season debut on April 21. Congrats if you were able to acquire him while he was out. If he’s still available, he is a must-add. Injuries will remain an issue for Polanco, but when he’s playing, he is a key offensive cog for the Twins and an RBI machine.

Stock Falling: Carlos Correa
ESPN ownership: 87%

Is it time to push the panic button? Correa came is batting .202 with a .634 OPS, and while he started slow last season before eventually heating up, this start has been even more frigid. There are some signs of struggle here that go beyond your typical slump. Correa isn't registering great batted-ball metrics, and he's really having a hard time pulling the ball which has been a key source of his power.

You’re obviously not dropping the shortstop, but it might make sense to take a step back until he shows some signs of life. Someone like Jorge Mateo, Taylor Walls or Paul DeJong could be worth looking at on waivers in the short term, but Correa’s track record suggests he’ll get going at some point. Plan to ride this rough patch out, but if you can hedge with a hot pickup, that would make sense.

Prospect Spotlight

Brooks Lee (Current team: Double-A Wichita)

Lee got in two games for Wichita last year, so this is his first extended run at the level. The infielder is batting .278 with two home runs across 19 games. Those are respectable numbers for the 22-year-old, and it was always assumed that Lee could be a fast riser through Minnesota’s system after coming out as a fairly polished college hitter. Lee could move up to Triple-A later this season, and while he won’t supplant a healthy Correa or Polanco, he could be useful depth in case of injuries or if the team needs a jolt at DH or if Jose Miranda keeps scuffling at third. 

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes

• 3 Games at White Sox (Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito)
• 3 Games at Guardians (Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Logan Allen)

It’s a critical week for the Twins on the road in the AL Central, with three more games against the White Sox and their first three games of the year against Cleveland. Chicago’s pitching has been terrible this season, so Minnesota hitters look favorable there. Meanwhile, the Guardians have been better on the mound but they don’t score a ton. Ober, Gray and Joe Ryan are slated to start in the series, and all three should be able to find some success against an offense scoring under four runs per game.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers 

Ryan is slated to start on Tuesday and again on Sunday. His perfect 5-0 record and 2.81 ERA have him sitting as the No. 3 ranked starter in ESPN leagues at the moment. You’re starting him with confidence in both games.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch

As noted above, the White Sox have struggled to limit their opponents’ offense. They’ve allowed 174 runs through 28 games coming into Sunday, which is second worst in the AL behind Oakland. Kopech looks the most vulnerable with a 7.01 ERA and 1.71 WHIP,.

Cease and Giolito have also mostly been good against Minnesota in their careers, but if you’re looking for a matchup to target, Max Kepler is heating up, and is 10-for-36 all time against Giolito with three home runs.

Offense may be a bit harder to come by in the Cleveland series. Bieber remains the staff ace and has a solid 3.11 ERA this season, so avoiding him is understandable. However, the next two pitchers may be more exploitable. Plesac is struggling this season with a 7.59 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. If Willi Castro finds his way into the lineup for that matchup, he could be a smart bargain play in daily formats, as he’s 9-for-18 in his career against Plesac with a home run.

Allen, meanwhile, has just one MLB start under his belt entering Sunday. That came a week ago, and he looked good by allowing just one earned run across six innings, but rookie starters are often known to be a bit up and down. Targeting Minnesota hitters makes sense if you think he’s due for a “down” outing. 

Where do you think Correa goes from here? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus share your thoughts on the matchups this week.