Twins Fantasy Fix (5/14): Miranda Moves Off Broadway

Welcome back to Twins Fantasy Fix! First things first: Happy Mother’s Day to all the wonderful moms out there. You are the real superstars and MVPs. Thanks for all that you do!

We’re about a quarter of the way through the MLB season, so the sample is probably large enough to draw some conclusions about the Twins from a fantasy perspective. On the pitching side, the squad has been outstanding. Minnesota’s 3.30 team ERA is third in the majors. Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray have both been fantasy aces, while Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez have been excellent in relief. They say a rising tide lifts all boats, and it appears that’s largely been true of the Twins, as these great individual performers all seem to motivate each other. There’s a lot to like here from a fantasy angle.

Meanwhile, Minnesota bats have been more middle of the pack, as the team is currently 13th in runs scored. Fantasy performances have been all over the board as well: Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo lead the team with eight home runs each, but they’re batting just .215 and .209, respectively. Carlos Correa’s struggles have been well documented, though a .220 BABIP suggests he’s been pretty unlucky as well. Jose Miranda was demoted to Triple-A on Wednesday. Alex Kirilloff is batting a robust .438, though he’s only played in seven games so far. There’s upside for Minnesota hitters, but fantasy managers may need to be patient.

Let’s look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates
Tyler Mahle
Expected return: 2024?
Tommy John surgery is coming for Mahle, which is a huge blow to him and the Twins. Without getting into the bigger picture here in terms of real baseball (Matthew Taylor’s piece has you covered), the fantasy baseball impact is pretty clear: Mahle should be dropped and Bailey Ober should be locked into a rotation spot. The latter has been really good in four starts, so fantasy managers should definitely have him on the radar.

Max Kepler
Expected return: TBD
Kepler hit the injured list Saturday with a hamstring strain. Hamstrings can be tricky, so for now, his return date is uncertain. Trevor Larnach was recalled from Triple-A to fill the roster spot. His earlier struggles led to a demotion and Kirilloff’s call-up, but maybe a second chance is what Larnach needs. He’ll likely play most days in right field with Kepler out, while Kirilloff should cover first. Fantasy managers definitely don’t need to scramble and pick up Larnach, though he should be monitored in case he gets hot.

Kenta Maeda
Expected return: TBD
Maeda remains sidelined with a right triceps strain without a clear timetable for his return. As noted above, Mahle’s injury has opened the door for Ober, while Maeda’s absence is giving Louie Varland a chance. Varland hasn’t been quite as sharp as Ober, though his 10.8 K/9 is intriguing. Limiting home runs will be the key to Varland’s future success.

Royce Lewis
Expected return: Early June
Lewis has started a rehab assignment with Double-A Wichita. He’s stolen two bases in two games so far, so the knee looks good in the early going. The Twins will undoubtedly be cautious with the talented 23-year-old as he ramps up, but his return is on the horizon. That could be further bad news for Miranda. More on him below.

Twins Fantasy Player Trends
Stock Rising: Alex Kirilloff
ESPN ownership: 3%
As mentioned previously, Kirilloff is batting .438 across seven games coming into Sunday. He’s also chipped in two home runs, three RBI, and four runs scored. It’s an impressive start for the first baseman, who will likely see his ownership tick upward. Of course, it’s a small sample size, so some regression will likely come. The team will also likely continue to give him frequent rest days to manage his wrist. All that said, he is the team’s primary option at first and should occupy a premium lineup spot most days. There’s fantasy upside here.

Stock Falling: Jose Miranda
ESPN ownership: 46%
The impending return of Lewis looked like the end of the road for Miranda, but it actually came sooner, as the Twins demoted him with the return of Kyle Farmer. That the Twins kept Willi Castro on the active roster ahead of Miranda shows the full scale of the latter’s struggles. Lewis’ return will only make it harder for Miranda to return to the majors, as Royce could take over as the primary third baseman. With nowhere else to play on a regular basis, Miranda could stick with St. Paul through the end of the year unless the Twins suffer any injuries. In season-long leagues, he’s an easy drop candidate. In dynasty formats, Miranda’s sophomore season has been concerning, though he still has long-term value, which he put on display toward the end of 2022 with the Twins.

Prospect Spotlight
Ronny Henriquez  (Current team: Triple-A)
Henriquez started the year on the IL due to right elbow inflammation but recently completed a rehab assignment and will stick with the Saints for now. The young righty looked good in a small sample for the Twins last season, so he’s a candidate to return to the MLB bullpen at some point this summer. Henriquez has worked as a starter and reliever in the minors and could be a long-relief option for Minnesota. He likely won’t have a ton of fantasy impact in 2023, though he could vulture some wins and provide decent ratios. His outlook in 2024 and beyond is more promising, as Henriquez has good stuff and could carve out a larger role with the Twins.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
3 Games at Dodgers (Noad Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May)
3 Games at Angels (Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Shohei Ohtani)
The Twins head out west for a Los Angeles road trip. Kershaw and Ohtani are the names that jump out among the probable starters, and it’s hard to feel good about Minnesota hitters in either of those two spots. A few other matchups look more promising, however.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers 
Pablo Lopez is lined up to start Monday and Sunday. The Dodgers are fourth in the majors in runs while the Angels are sixth, so the matchups both look challenging. I’m probably rolling Lopez out for both given his success so far this season, though you can probably find better options in daily leagues those two days.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
As noted above, I’m probably avoiding the Kershaw and Ohtani games, for obvious reasons. Monday is more interesting, as Syndergaard is dealing with a finger issue and could miss the start, with 24-year-old Gavin Stone as the likely replacement. Even if Syndergaard goes, it’s still a spot I like, as he’s been underwhelming this year with a 6.12 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 5.85 K/9. Minnesota hasn’t seen a ton of him all time, though Twins hitters are 10-for-34 combined in their careers against the righty.

Detmers looks like the most exploitable Angels pitcher with his 4.89 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Correa has seen him the most and has gone 2-for-7 with a home run. You could also consider a Twins stack against Sandoval as a somewhat contrarian play, as he’s been pretty solid with a 3.41 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He’s also a lefty who doesn’t miss a ton of bats, so Buxton and Correa could both line up nicely.

One final note here on Ryan Jeffers. Christian Vazquez has been slumping lately, which has led to an uptick in playing time for Jeffers behind the plate. The latter has done well with a .292 batting average and .872 OPS across 48 at-bats. If Jeffers continues to see his playing time increase in the week ahead, he becomes an interesting option due to his power potential at a thin position.

Who have been the best and worst Twins in fantasy a quarter of the way through the season? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus share your thoughts on the matchups this week.