Twins Fantasy Fix (7/2): A New Beginning for the Offense?

The Twins made it clear before Friday’s game that they were ready for a reset. A whiteboard message that read, “Let the season begin…” greeted the team, and while reasonable minds can disagree about whether such motivational gimmicks actually work, there’s no arguing that the offense needed a restart. The key question now is whether they’ll be able to deliver.

I remain a believer in Byron Buxton for fantasy purposes. I think there’s too much talent here, and when he gets on a hot streak, the results speak for themselves. I understand the desire to drop him in shallower formats given the so-so production to date (he’s under 57% owned in ESPN leagues, so many folks have already cut ties), but I have him on my team, and I plan to stand pat. 

I think Carlos Correa is in a similar boat. While we’re well past the point of being able to write off his underwhelming performance due to small sample size, the most important thing for fantasy players to think about is whether they believe he’s capable of a few good months. If you acquired the shortstop today, you wouldn’t really care about his struggles in April, May and June. Your only concern would be what you’ll get in July and onward. We’ve seen Correa put together big months toward the end of a season before, so it’s a reasonable roll of the dice. With his acquisition cost likely pretty low in most leagues, he remains an intriguing lottery ticket.

The rest of Minnesota’s hitters are probably best seen as fantasy streamers. Alex Kirilloff has probably been the steadiest of the bunch, but his counting stats don’t jump off the page and he’s available in about 97% of leagues. Joey Gallo and Max Kepler have been much streakier, and again, they’re widely available. Every other regular falls into a similar category. The whiteboard rallying cry may get the Twins going as a team on offense, but fantasy managers don’t need to rush out and add anyone, beyond possibly Buxton and Correa if you believe in them turning things around. For other Minnesota hitters, feel free to add them here and there if they heat up, but don’t get too attached.

Let’s now look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates

Royce Lewis
Expected return: TBD
Lewis strained his left oblique running to first base in Saturday’s game, an injury that figures to take at least a month to recover from. It’s a big blow to the Twins as he was batting .326 as the team’s primary third baseman. Jose Miranda (more on him below) was recalled from St. Paul to fill the roster spot.

Brock Stewart
Expected return: Mid-July
Stewart hit the injured list toward the end of June with some tendinitis in his right elbow. He should be able to return in a few weeks. Griffin Jax will continue to take on an elevated role in the meantime, and he’s pitched very well lately. I wrote about Jax last week as someone to have on your fantasy radar.

Jorge Polanco
Expected return: July or later
Polanco remains on the injured list with a hamstring strain. He’s resumed some baseball activities and could return sometime this month, though a specific date hasn’t been announced.

Stock Rising: Bailey Ober
ESPN ownership: 41%
Ober continues to be a revelation for the Twins and fantasy managers. After tossing seven scoreless innings in Saturday’s win, he now has a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 76 2/3 innings this season. After recording a 3.21 ERA and 1.05 WHIP last year, it seems safe to say that the performance is real. The biggest positive for Ober is the fact that his rotation spot seems secure with Tyler Mahle out of the picture. Ober was on the outside looking in to begin the season, but with a clear path to regular starts, he should remain a strong fantasy contributor.

Stock Falling: Alex Kirilloff
ESPN ownership: 3%
Kirilloff has cooled down some after a hot start. Since the beginning of June, he’s slashing .235/.293/.329. By comparison, he slashed .314/.448/.486 in May. Kirilloff doesn’t deliver enough power to be able to offset a lower batting average, and he sits frequently against southpaws, so it’s understandable for fantasy managers to look in a different direction. 

Prospect Spotlight
Jose Miranda  (Current team: MLB)
Miranda was recalled Sunday to take over at third base, but he’s spent most of the season in the minors and his MLB roster spot isn’t guaranteed when Lewis is able to return. It will be up to Miranda to prove that he should stick around the rest of the year, possibly seeing time at first base and DH when Lewis is back in the lineup. He was starting to show signs of life with the Saints, posting a .287/.362/.436 slash line in June. Miranda also was good for the Twins as a rookie in 2022, so there is still plenty to like here from a fantasy perspective. If he gets hot in the next few weeks, he could be worth targeting. And if he doesn’t, he could be headed back to St. Paul.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
3 Games vs Kansas City (Austin Cox, Zack Greinke, Alec Marsh)
3 Games vs Orioles (Cole Irvin, Tyler Wells, Kyle Gibson)
The Twins get a soft matchup (on paper, at least) against the struggling Royals, then a rematch against the Orioles at Target Field. Kansas City looks like the spot to target, as the Royals are 28th in team ERA and 29th in runs scored.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers 
Joe Ryan is in line to start Monday and Sunday. He was hammered by Atlanta to the tune of five home runs his last time out, but he gets much easier matchups this week, with the added bonus of pitching at home. The righty looks like a great bounceback candidate.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
As noted above, Kansas City is not a good pitching team, so they present some intriguing options in daily formats. Cox and Marsh are both inexperienced at the MLB level, while the veteran Greinke has a 5.15 ERA this year. You could build Minnesota stacks any of these days. If you’re looking to bank on past success, Buxton is 7-for-18 all time against Greinke with a triple and a home run.

When the Orioles come to town, I’m circling the matchups against Irvin and old friend Kyle Gibson. Irvin has a 7.18 ERA this season, though he did limit the Twins to just one run across five innings Sunday. I’m still feeling pretty good about firing up right-handed Minnesota hitters in this spot. Gibson meanwhile has a 4.66 ERA and has been getting hit around lately. Minnesota hitters don’t have a ton of experience against him, but pretty much anyone is in play if you think Gibson’s struggles will continue.

Gallo is worth a quick mention as well with four home runs across his last eight games. The slugger is notoriously streaky, but when he’s on, he can pile up long balls in a hurry. He’s a bit harder to stomach in standard formats due to the drag on your batting average, but if you’re feeling like rolling the dice in daily leagues, Gallo can deliver a ton of value on days when he goes deep. I probably wouldn’t use him against the southpaws Cox or Irvin, but none of the other matchups look too bad. 

Do you believe in any Minnesota hitters for fantasy? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.