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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    So we're going to pretend you didn't imply that a lack of support for the move equates to a lack of understanding? Gotcha. An odd response indeed.... Lol thank you for hammering home my point.
  2. KirbyDome89
    Yes, we all get it, you're an organizational sycophant who loves to argue from authority and anybody who disagrees with said authority is a dumb***. Riverbrian did a nice job of laying out the issues with platooning earlier in the thread. Go back and read it.
  3. KirbyDome89
    "A strong platoon with Farmer vs. LHP and Julien vs. LHP is all but guaranteed to outproduce Polanco." What words am I putting in your mouth? Worst case scenario? C'mon....You don't have to take what I'm saying seriously, but if your response is to stick your fingers in your ears, I'd refrain from dumping on anybody else's argument. League wide perspective is exactly why I prefer Varland over DeSclafani. Give me the younger guy, with some actual upside, instead of the semi washed vet whose ceiling is fringe backend guy. This isn't tough to understand. If you're going to trot out a .500 ERA every 5th day, have it be somebody that maybe takes some steps forward and contributes beyond this year. DeSclafani is either moved, in the opening day rotation, or in the pen. I think options 1 and 2 are far more likely. If you want to argue that he won't bump Varland go ahead, we'll just disagree. Two teams are paying DeSclafani to not be on their roster. Idk if other clubs were lining up to throw $10M at him. You realize he was hitting 2 hole for them in the postseason right? But "bad faith," huh?....
  4. KirbyDome89
    It's guaranteed? Polanco was better vs. LHP in 2021, and the two have basically rotated who was better vs. LHP each year since Farmer starting playing regularly. I definitly don't think it's a given that 34 year old Kyle Farmer outproduces Polanco vs. LHP, in which case the platoon becomes more of an issue. Do I think it's unreasonable to favor the Farmer/Julien platoon? No. Do I believe that last season was Julien's floor and Kyle Farmer posts a .800+ OPS vs. LHP? Also, no. 23 player is less than one per club. You're making my point for me here. No, the Twins (and most teams) didn't have a large number of guys reach 500 PAs because 1) injuries occur 2) baseball is matchup dependent, and most players aren't matchup-proof. Why are they worse? Is that really a question? They moved a top of the lineup bat for a prospect and/or a RP. For me it's that simple. I don't want a .500 ERA #6 spot. I don't see that as "depth," or some sort of W. If the Twins are trotting out a 34 year old on a 1 year deal with a .500 ERA every 5th start I'll be incredibly annoyed, and honestly everybody else should be too. Louie Varland can probably give you a .500 ERA, or at least something close. That's not impressive, but at minimum Varland has some upside, at least until he shows he doesn't. The entire point is that if you're going to bump him from the rotation (and maybe that isn't the plan) then it should be a move that reshuffles most, if not nearly all, of the rotation.
  5. KirbyDome89
    Sure, Farmer has better career numbers vs. LHP, but if we're to believe Polanco is sliding downhill at 31, why should Farmer posting his worst season vs. LHP in the last 5 years (not counting the shortened 2020) be overlooked? It wouldn't shock me if Farmer was better vs. LHP this year, but I don't believe that gap is enough to make up for the shortcomings of a platoon. Randomness in a league where 2,400+ games take place in one season?
  6. KirbyDome89
    This is what I used: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-southpaw-advantage/ And yes, I generously rounded up to make the 1/3 math easier, but I would certainly say that my overall point holds true; Julien actually does need to "hit," LHP, i.e. "hold his own," if he's going to be a regular in the starting lineup.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Except Farmer wasn't better against LHP last year. It's odd to me that those who believe Polanco is about to fall off a cliff at 31 are seemingly comfortable platooning a 34 year old Farmer. The funny thing about that progression is that it correlates negatively with his innings in the field. His defensive usage was akin to a back end reliever. The Twins had one player, ONE, clear 500 PAs last season. Kepler came close at 491 PAs in 130 games, but had 4x as many PAs against LHP as Julien. So sure, if Julien stays healthy/available for 162 games, maybe he touches 500 PAs while continuing to completely avoid LHP; good luck with that though. FWIW roughy 1/3 of MLB innings are thrown by LHP. It's not even debatable that this FO shows a strong deference to vets, even when it's clear they're not the answer. If DeSclafani is viewed as a starter (who knows if this is the case but I certainly hope not) he'll be given every opportunity to fail and that will come at Varland's expense. We'll disagree on whether DeSclafani fits the Bundy/Archer mold... "The team is clearly better after the trade." Lol the hottest of takes.
  8. KirbyDome89
    Polanco tallied 2x as many ABs vs. LHP (not surprising) in 30ish fewer games. Their offensive usage wasn't all that similar. Their innings in the field were roughly the same, and despite all the moaning about Polanco's defense, it was Julien who turned in a negative WAR in that category. He (Julien) is going to have to hit LHP. If the solution is to platoon Kyle Farmer with him at 2B then I don't see the Twins adding by subtracting here. Brooks Lee isn't a factor. He's a top prospect in the organization. The door is never shut for him. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer were the same type of "depth," or reclamation project, back end guys, just 2 years ago. Idk how adding another of that type in 2024 makes this rotation better, especially if the guy being pushed out (Varland) has some actual upside. Woof, saying the team is better right now is a true contrarian take. Idk if you've paid attention to NE football lately, but BB's roster building decisions absolutely sunk that team over the last few years. The Pats decided to move on, not BB.
  9. KirbyDome89
    750K is literally nothing. They'll throw that at some retread to get knocked around in ST and sit in the minors. There are no savings beyond this year. None.
  10. KirbyDome89
    2025 is a club option. The Twins aren't on the hook for $12M, so that "savings," doesn't exist.
  11. KirbyDome89
    Didn't the Twins also take on millions due to salary differences? They (the Twins) will still come out ahead, but the money coming back isn't all surplus.
  12. KirbyDome89
    Or Julien being able to handle LHP. So many thought the Twins could just platoon away their shortcomings last year, and ironically the platooning itself became an issue. Even half a season with Polanco at the top of the lineup would've raised the floor considerably.
  13. KirbyDome89
    Where, in any of my posts, are you reading that prospects lack all value? Point to it, or stop with these weird tangential arguments. Valuing prospects and not wanting to trade for them right now aren't mutually exclusive. Is it stupid, in a vacuum, to swap Jorge Polanco for a top 100 prospect? No. Do we operate in a vacuum? Also, no.
  14. KirbyDome89
    Where in that post did I advocate for unloading all prospects? You don't have to push this into absurdity. I don't think I'm "cherry picking," anymore than the group that's celebrating a return headlined by a top 100 prospect. YMMV
  15. KirbyDome89
    No s*** prospects can land you legit MLB talent, we just watched Berrios shove it down the Twins throat in October. I don't think an offensively challenged team, trying to build on their first taste of playoff success in 2 decades, should be swapping one of their better bats for a return headlined by a prospect. Where this team is, and what they should be trying to do is important if we're talking about assessing the value of this swap.
  16. KirbyDome89
    Just a few years ago people on this board were drooling over Austin Martin and SWR. Neither has been able to find consist success in the upper minors, let alone contribute anything at the Major League level. I understand that established talent is swapped for prospects all the time, and sometimes that's the right call, but this team is trying to win now, which is important in viewing the "value," of this swap. The Mariners just moved spare parts + a prospect for a legit bat. It's Polanco's health and continued production vs. the development of Gonzalez.
  17. KirbyDome89
    And if we need to view the "total value," with a high level of skepticism neither number is really diagnosing anything...
  18. KirbyDome89
    I was more so referring to the quantity/quality aspect of "evening," out a trade, and the way a 20 year old who hasn't seen a pitch outside of A ball is being valued vs. Polanco.
  19. KirbyDome89
    Plus he spent the last 2 months of 2023 on the IL with an elbow issue. I'm not even that high on Varland, but unless the Twins really don't envision him as a starter, shoving Varland out of the 5th spot and into the bullpen for a guy who's one bad year away from being considered washed seems silly.
  20. KirbyDome89
    Eh, these value charts should be taken with a massive grain of salt.
  21. KirbyDome89
    Yeah not sure I'm loving this.... Their best (likely to be moved) trade chip is now off the table, and they opted for quantity over quality? No cash savings (if we're to believe this team is hard capped and needed payroll relief to make additions,) and no shakeup of the rotational pecking order, i.e. Polanco wasn't packaged for an impact arm. Those were the two scenarios, barring some hyper rare one for one swap, where moving Polanco made sense to me, even if I didn't really like the idea. I don't think DeSclafani stabilizes anything. He wasn't good last year, and SF shut him down with elbow issues. Hopefully the Twins intend to shed his salary elsewhere a la the Garver, IKF, maneuvers a few years ago.
  22. KirbyDome89
    Or the Twins watched Ryan struggle for 6 weeks in June/July and then look wholly unimpressive when he returned for the remaining 5-6 weeks of the season. He threw 2 innings in his lone playoff appearance. Two! It was an elimination game, so an already short leash was likely even shorter, but it was clear there wasn't a ton of trust there and FWIW that was the right call.
  23. KirbyDome89
    Relax. The point was that a "speed only," guy has incredibly limited utility, and what he does bring to the table is tied to variables outside of his own control.
  24. KirbyDome89
    Jeffers has to reach base (which he was miserable at doing last postseason) before you can pinch run for him. Also, his spot in the lineup has to up, the game would need to be close, yada yada. I think the incredibly niche role a guy like Thompson would fill is being overrated.
  25. KirbyDome89
    Yeah I just don't think he is ready, so that mantra doesn't apply in this situation. I'm not going to pretend to be remotely locked into minor league action, but looking through his 2023 season Martin had some really weird RH/LH splits and 2/3 of his short season was disappointing if we're being honest. I don't want a mediocre vet anymore than you do, but I'm not in a hurry to force a guy who hasn't consistently hit minor league pitching either of the past two seasons onto the active roster either.
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