PopRiveter

Seems that many keep referring to the Ortiz comparison with the conclusion that "He's proven he'll never be Ortiz." Bollocks! That misses the entire point of the comparison- Ortiz was squeezed out of the Twins system entering his age 27 season because he'd shown some promise (.266/.348/.461) but hadn't established himself as better than the other options. Vargas appears to be getting squeezed out of the Twins system entering his age 27 season because he'd shown some promise (.252/.311/.437) but hasn't established himself as better than the other options. The age 27 season is the point in most sluggers career arcs where they start to peak. For comparison, here are some current DH's and Twin's sluggers before-age-27 triple slashes: Logan Morrison: 251/.333/.426 Josh Willingham: .250/.357/.333 Michael Cuddyer: .260/.330/.428 Nelson Cruz: .231/.282/.385 Mark Trumbo: .259/.302/.478 Edwin Encarnacion: .260/.341/.448 Jose Bautista: .240/.329/.395 There's no certainty he'll have a productive mlb career like the players listed above, but the numbers he's posted so far are right at home with that group and he's just arriving at the age where power hitters tend to blossom. There are greats who slug early on (Killebrew, Pujols, Thome, Sano), but they are definitely a minority when you look at the full population of power hitters. I think this was the year to give Vargas 500+ PA's and the Twins are opting to give the opportunity to Logan Morrison instead. It may prove to be a fine decision or it may prove comparable to choosing Lecroy over Ortiz. The point of the comparison is that the Twins are again stuck making a choice prematurely and it feels eerily similar. It seems foolish to draw a conclusion on Vargas. All he has proven is that he's worth a shot that he hasn't gotten yet and his true emergence should have been expected in 2018 all along. Respectfully, Bitter Old David Ortiz Fan Reed

Can’t believe the fan response is this positive. All I can think about is how well it worked for the Cubs when they signed Scott Baker. He was at least as accomplished as Pineda before injury. It makes some sense to take a flyer like this when your team is a loser, but if your expectations are playoffs (as they should be), smells like a waste of resources.

Yuck. Yuck. 1000x Yuck. Rodney was the least reliable closer in the division when he was in his physical prime. He is one of the best at putting guys on base. His career WHIP is 1.35 Never trusted him and can’t believe he got more than a minor league deal at this age. After pushing all their chips in on Ohtani, then having to settle for cutting their losses, giving up Melotakis+Bard+Burdi for a combined nothing, and starting the free agent period by spending $14.5-16 million on one pitcher that won’t play in 2018 and a 40 year old closer who posted a 4.89 ERA over the past two seasons... I’m quickly losing trust in this Front Office. Last year’s moves (Castro, Gimenez, Belisle, Breslow, Adrianza) didn’t overwhelm, but I liked them a whole lot more than what’s happening this offseason. Yuck.

I don't see nearly the contrast in approach that Nick sees. The Ryan regime also threw a lot of arms from a lot of sources out on the field. They had their slow-cooked draft-and-develop guys, but they too sourced rule 5, the independent leagues, junkpile, major and minor league trades. Look at the 2016 staff- Abad, Kintzler, O'Rourke, Graham, Light, Mejia... I don't see the current leadership doing anything new or different other then the fact they seem even quicker with the trigger. This means we've again seen a lot of arms attached to unfamiliar names, but might not see them long enough to recognize who belongs. With this constant carousel, players will frequently be made available to other organizations. As a fan, I have to hope they evaluate well and hold the right guys in the shuffle. We'll see about that.

I looked at the results of the 181 games he pitched prior to his callup, not just the last 11. I can't see how anyone would have enough confidence to assign him to face an mlb lineup after such a short stretch of competence when it follows a long, poor track record. That's my point. They lost the game and I'm already over it. Kind of sad when you face Mike Pelfrey, who's been dumped by the Tigers and demoted to the pen and realize his numbers are good enough he'd be the Twins fourth best starter if he was still here. Ouch.

Agreed that his leadoff power is outstanding. However, for 2 seasons, he has quite simply failed to translate that to power in situations where men are on base. I think your comment "he gets fewer homer potential pitches with runners on base" is right on, but it's also my point. He can manage to get the cookie he likes to hit but only when no one is on. When somebody is on base, he's now improved to hitting 1 HR per 41 PA. Slugging .388 You assert that "That's baseball," but it is not the case for all power hitters. Many hit their homeruns at the same rate or even a higher rate when there are runners. My whole point is that his power shows up a LOT more when bases are empty, therefore, I no longer see a big need to move him down the order. He still sees a lot of opportunities with men on base, he just is not a power hitter in those situations.

Just baffled about the Tim Melville callup. This guy's minor league numbers are bad. He's been an unsuccessful pitcher at every level. Like these-numbers-get-you-cut-before-high-A bad. Minor league career ERA of 4.58, WHIP of 1.43. What are they seeing? The article mentions a 96 mph fastball, but since it's never translated to outs... I get that they are grasping at straws on a doubleheader day, but this decision has no base. With this track record, I probably wouldn't let him start for the Saints. Super confused.

Happy they moved the spotlight to the question of why Brian Dozier and his power are at leadoff. However, I think they missed the most important point. -yeah, Brain Dozier is overall a power hitter and it would seem wise to maximize his power-except for the fact that he's only a power hitter when the bases are empty. He's hitting 1 home run every 17 PA's (.541 SLG) with the bases empty, but only 1 hr every 47.75 PA's (.363 SLG) with a man on base. Dozier shrinks into a weak hitter when he bats with a baserunner. Something is lacking with his approach. Still a fun discussion to listen to. Even with the scrambled timeline this week

Agreed about his fielding, but I figured it was a matter of continuing to give him a shot versus continuing to give Kennys Vargas a shot. They are the same age and are both all-bat/no-glove players. We all seem to praise Vargas for producing whenever given a chance (.729 career ops) while we complain that Arcia didn't produce when given a chance (.720 career ops). Pretty similar production in the bigs so far, but Arcia's best stretches in the minors has been far superior to Vargas' best. Still bugs me that they stuck with Vargas, but maybe it will prove to be the right choice.

Any notice what Arcia is doing? He's hitting .353/.428/.710 for Arizona's AAA affiliate with 20 hr. Just dominating that league. His release was the last Twins move truly disappointed me. I really would've liked to see him pay off his potential here. With production like that at AAA, he's gotta be back in the bigs somewhere in the second half.

I'm impressed. You made a pretty bold prediction based on really sound logic, and nailed it. You're hired. Looking at the numbers you posted, it seems to indicate he maybe swung a tad harder in May, but mostly just trusted his approach and it paid off.

Trevor Hildenberger? Alan Busenitz?

"In play, no out."

this bullpen is hurting my heart.

That was a satisfying moment

Throughout this thread, folks keep repeating that Mauer has refused to adjust his approach. Am I the only person who remembers 2015? The shifts got strong (and effective) in 2014. In 2015, he committed to changing his swing and approach to try and pull the ball. He swung earlier in counts. Took harder swings. It was the storyline of article after article. It didn't work. It resulted in the lowest OPS and the highest strikeout total of his career. The only time he ever posted a below-average OPS+. I think he's convinced himself that he needs to work within his established skillset. I think it's unfair to say that he's refused to adjust (because I watched baseball in 2015) but I think it is 100% fair to say he is refusing now. I'd like to see him find a way to pull a ball when he needs to, because it seems undeniable that there are situations where he needs to.

Castro's positive impact is going well beyond the pitching staff, he's findaing a way to put Sano on a great jogging program.

Bremer sure oversold that call

isn't Polanco supposed to be sucktastic at short? Didn't look bad on that one

I'm all for batting him lower and raising him once he earns it. I buy into the reasoning that batting order doesn't much influence your win probability, but I do believe it has the power to send messages to players. With Buxton, I'd like him to feel good about his contributions with the glove and not feel pressured to be a top producer with the bat... yet I think he will become a traditional #3 hitter. Whether or not the lineup construction ever reverts to "traditional" is anybody's guess.

I used to call the that "the ol' loop-de-loooo"

"The old spinaround" I keep learning from Bert