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howeda7

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Everything posted by howeda7

  1. howeda7
    The timing just rolled down from the ownership transition. Tom went and personally met with Buxton, Joe Ryan etc to "audit" what had gone wrong. And clearly Derek was seen as a big part of that.
  2. howeda7
    Good. The timing sucks but it's clearly because Tom Pohlad has now seen enough to know he wants him gone.
  3. howeda7
    In a vacuum this would be fine. On this roster in makes no sense. We now have 3 catchers, 4 first baseman but no bullpen or back-up SS. WTF are we doing?
  4. howeda7
    For $10 million or less, I'd gladly take Arreaz over Bell.
  5. howeda7
    Apparently so many local people wanted a piece that they formed a 3rd group. Vetting all these people caused the delay. I would be surprised if Mauer or some other former players don't have some token % so they can trot them out.
  6. howeda7
    I'm still worried...
  7. howeda7
    Kanley Jansen for $11 million is exactly the move they should have made if they're going to try to compete next year.
  8. howeda7
    Mountcastle does nothing for me. I'd view Clemons as a wash with him. Mayo it would depend on the price. I would probably do SWR or Festa for him but not much more than that.
  9. howeda7
    If we're going to address 1B with limited funds, I'd rather embrace small ball and bring back Luis Arreaz. He won't cost more than $10 million IMO and is a perfect #2 hitter. The power will have to come from Royce/Buck/Wallner etc.
  10. howeda7
    Over the long term, no. Over a 2 year period, gutting payroll, having league worst attendance, bad TV distribution and then a long lockout certainly could. Or at least hinder how much it goes up. Again, I think the equity value here is they're buying in at $1.5 or $1.6 billion valuation and the new CBA making the team worth $2 billion or more. Gutting payroll and therefore the season ticket base and fan base does the opposite, and hurts valuation in exchange for a small amount of short-term cash flow.
  11. howeda7
    I understand that. But pro sports franchises aren't that similar to most regular businesses. If they "bleed it dry" the value by 2027 will be less than it is now. That might be fine if they planned to sell and move the team, but they can't move until at least 2040. Gutting the payroll to $60 million for next year saves $30 million at best and likely harms the value of the franchise by more than that. The value to the equity firm is a reasonable gamble that the franchise will be worth a lot more in 2027 with a new CBA than what they are paying for their current share. And that's a decent bet.
  12. howeda7
    The majority of that debt cannot be operating losses. It's either Target Field debt they never paid off and kept rolling over, or it's unrelated to the Twins. It's probably some combination of all 3.
  13. howeda7
    While a private equity firm isn't going to say "go spend $200 million YOLO", I also don't think they will say, "trade all your stars, cut payroll to $50 million and drive your attendance and TV ratings to an all-time low!". That will not increase the value of the asset.
  14. howeda7
    The only thing Derek Falvey finds more intriguing that an left-handed OF'er is a pitcher with a partially torn ligament.
  15. howeda7
    87 wins might win the division next year if the Tigers trade Skubal.
  16. howeda7
    Honestly if Rob Manfred had any balls, he'd just tell the Pohlad's you're selling. If $1.5 billion is all you can get, we'll make the other owners accept it, even if it sets a bad precedent. Take it and get out.
  17. howeda7
    Firing Falvey is always a good idea.
  18. howeda7
    Apparently the deal with the "minority investors" has hit a snag. Our only hope is that the other Pohlad's tell Joe to shove it and go back to selling the entire team.
  19. howeda7
    If you are trading one of those 3, you might as well trade them all and have a $60 million payroll I guess.
  20. howeda7
    It's pretty likely they are just holding out until the lockout is done and then selling. The lure is I give you $400 million for 25% of the team and in 2 years we sell for $2 billion and I get $500 million.
  21. howeda7
    I see I forgot to add the Correa dead $$, so that eats up the rest of the budget
  22. howeda7
    There's no real reason it shouldn't be in the same ballpark as last year. Nothing is fundamentally different than it was 12 months ago. Uncertain ownership situation, uncertain long-term media situation. Looming work stoppage. No minority owner is going to back out over the payroll being $130 vs $110.
  23. howeda7
    C: Ryan Jeffers ($6.60M) 1B: Luis Arreaz ($10M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($3.00M) SS: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) LF: Gabriel Gonzalez ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Willi Castro ($5M) DH: Matt Wallner ($0.8M) 4th OF: Alan Roden ($0.80M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.80M) Utility: Kody Clemons ($0.80M) Backup C: Austin Jackson ($0.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($5.80M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.60M) SP4: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) SP5: Taj Bradley ($0.80M) RP: Kenley Janson ($14.0M) RP: Anthony Bender ($2.850M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.30M) RP: Justin Topa ($2M) RP: Taylor Rogers ($3M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.8M) RP: Zebby Mathews ($0.80M) RP: Eric Orze ($0.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 4.27% under budget
  24. howeda7
    That doesn't mean they lost $500 million on baseball operations over the last few years or ever. They contributed over $200 million to the construction of Target Field and many tens of millions more in upgrade since then. It seems they borrowed this rather than pony it up, which is fine if that's what they wanted to do, but it's simply incorrect to say it was because they were losing $$ in huge amounts. They have surely had years with operating losses at times, but nothing that would approach that kind of debt.
  25. howeda7
    Based on what we know, they sold ~25% of the team for ~$400 million. I believe the plan is to pay off the existing debt with the minority owner's $$, wait until the work stoppage is resolved and then sell in 2027/2028 for $1.8-2 billion. In the meantime, they certainly don't want to lose a bunch of $$ and accumulate new debt, but they also don't desperately need to scrape out as much profit as possible either. They are currently in no-man's land, with a projected 2026 payroll of $95 million and a 70- win team. It makes no sense so sit there. And once you trade Pablo Lopez, well then you might as well trade Buxton and Joe Ryan too. Now you have a $55 million payroll, zero fans in the ballpark, zero TV viewers and and an alienated fan base. Sure they might make some operating profit for 2026, But it might knock $100+ million of that franchise valuation by 2028 too. Is that a smart financial move? All I'm suggesting is field the most competitive team you can without going into the red. That's somewhere in the $130 million range.
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