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howeda7

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Everything posted by howeda7

  1. howeda7
    I can't recall where I saw the #'s, but in 2023 they supposedly lost $12 million on operations, while having a $155 million payroll and $54 million in local TV $$. They have also always said that ~55% of revenues go to payroll. Using that as a baseline, the "break even" payroll in 2023 would have been ~$148 million. In 2024, the TV revenue dropped to ~$42 million. That would lower the breakeven payroll to $141 million. They actually cut it to $135, probably because they only went back to Diamond at the last minute and were assuming it would be lower. In 2025, they raised it to $140 million. No one knows the true TV revenue for 2025, but I'd estimate it at about $30 million. The break even payroll would be ~$134. They would have gotten under it with all the trades, though I'm sure attendance was far lower than projected. They probably lost $$ but not a ton. Even holding TV revenue the same for 2026, a $130 million payroll would be very reasonable.
  2. howeda7
    I'm not suggesting they will immediately have a top 5 bullpen, but you just need competence that won't train-wreck 2 wins per week as a starting point. If you get the right closer and decent set-up guy plus Sands, Mathews etc. that's a fairly reasonable goal.
  3. howeda7
    Not all at once, but over time, yes. 500,000 less attendance in 2026 can easily mean $25 million less in revenue. It will also mean less TV revenue etc. And the complete nuking of the fan base will bleed into 2027 and beyond.
  4. howeda7
    Teams rebuild bullpens all the time. You have to be right on the closer, yes. But you don't have to go 4-4. I would also (and assume they might be) convert at least one of Mathews or Festa to the bullpen. Also, the reverse can be true. If they are in contention, adding a reliever is the easiest move at the trade deadline.
  5. howeda7
    Why? The Opening Day payroll last year was $140 million. There is no reason they have to slash it substantially from that. The TV revenue will actually go UP with the ESPN deal this year. If they cut to $70 million they will be looking at barely 1 million in attendance in 2025 and then a works stoppage. It will cost them more than they will save.
  6. howeda7
    The division isn't great. If they will just have a $130-$140 million payroll, they can win the division. You need a closer ($12-15 million) a set-up guy ($6-7) and a lefty ($5) to rebuild the bullpen. Add a mid-grade 1B ($10 million) and a back-up catcher and you have a roster that has a decent chance for ~$130 million. That is what they SHOULD do. You can always trade Ryan or Lopez in July if things go poorly.
  7. howeda7
    Keeping the team only to gut it by trading Lopez, Ryan and Buxton and then go into a work stoppage would be so unbelievably dumb I still can't believe that's their plan. They might as well try to break the lease and move at that point. Target Field will be dead.
  8. howeda7
    What will they do? Who knows. But they can afford a $140-ish million payroll as they did last year. Their TV revenues should go up slightly with ESPN stepping in and distributing it.
  9. howeda7
    Would you feel that much better if it was Rowson or Flaherty? I wouldn't.
  10. howeda7
    For the bullpen: Give me Edwin Diaz, a return of Coulumbe and a trade for a RH set-up guy and pick up Topa's option. For 1B: Give me Arreaz for ~$10 million. Bring back Willi Castro. He'll be cheap. For back-up C: Anyone but Vazquez.
  11. howeda7
    Derek was never going to hire anyone but a yes man. Things will change when Falvey is fired.
  12. howeda7
    Give me Rickie Weeks Jr. It won't be Tori now should it be. Same with Mauer and Morneau (Mauer may be one of the minority owners, but he wouldn't want the job.)
  13. howeda7
    Those mid-90's teams had zero chance. If the Twins really do cut payroll to $70 million for 2026, that will be like what TK had every year from 1993-2000. TK still got more wins out of them than anyone else would have. He could manage circles around Rocco in his prime. Not even close.
  14. howeda7
    It's your opinion that Ron Gardenhire was a lousy manager?
  15. howeda7
    It would make much more sense to relieve him on the business side. He never had any business taking Dave St Peter's job in addition to his own.
  16. howeda7
    The "extension" was one year for 2026 and probably picked up in April. I know the Pohlads can be cheap, but nearly every coach that's ever been fired had at least one year left on their contract. Very rarely do they just coach out the contract and walk away. The buyout had zero impact on this.
  17. howeda7
    They signed Correa after Joe was put in charge. He wanted to go for it. It didn't work. I do agree that some of the family didn't like the extra losses/debt and that's why there was a push to sell. But I assume those most unhappy are the ones getting their $$ out in this deal.
  18. howeda7
    They may not go back up to $140 million but they certainly need to go down any further than the $95-100 million they are at currently. It's possible, but they won't be losing $$ at $100 million and completely torching your fan base right before you might be on strike for a year isn't good for the long-term value of the franchise.
  19. howeda7
    I'm sure it was a "collaborative effort" to pick the coaches but I sort of doubt he got to pick whoever he wanted.
  20. howeda7
    Who's "they"? Joe is the one who wanted to keep the team and not sell. If they gut the payroll to $70 million in 2026 it will be mostly Joe's doing. I assume the family members who wanted out are the ones selling their shares to new minority owners.
  21. howeda7
    Why didn't they do it years ago then? The TV $$ isn't really "rolling" in and is now more directly impacted by their winning/fan interest than it was before.
  22. howeda7
    If that were true they could have done it in 2025. Or 2024. Or 2023. Nothing was stopping them.
  23. howeda7
    There's plenty of blame for the Pohlad's and Falvey, but Rocco still had the highest payroll in the division and bombed.
  24. howeda7
    Of course Falvey should go too, but he won't. So this was the bare minimum that needed to happen. I hope the new hire will be from outside the organization and given the freedom to skip the 2 PM spreadsheet meeting when he sees fit.
  25. howeda7
    They aren't free agents. What are they going to do? Refuse to report to Spring Training?
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