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CCHOF5yearstoolate

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Everything posted by CCHOF5yearstoolate

  1. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Commensurate to my perceived value I think trading him in a year where he had month long stretch with 35 strikeouts to 11 walks and a .439 OPS means the other teams have a lot of ammo to low ball the offer. Lee is the only IF of that group, and I still think at least one of Kepler/Wallner/Larnach will be gone by next year. Correa, Royce and Miranda are all RH (though Miranda has reverse splits so far), so Julien helps balance out the IF and he has defensive flexibility - unlike Severino. I'm kind of out on Kirilloff at this point, though I'd be happy to be wrong. Really, I just don't get the rush in trying to trade him away when playing time opens up naturally next year and his rookie season was one of the best rookie seasons in Twins history.
  2. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    I have a tough time with Luzardo specifically because he's had his own history of injuries and he's only got 2 expensive years left of team control. I wouldn't trade much more than Julien for him, and even then I'm not sure that would be to the Twins' advantage. Certainly not opposed to flipping him for starting pitching, but with his OBP & slugging profile and being under team control through 2030 they'd better get back some real value & team control if they do go that route.
  3. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Would be selling very low to trade Julien this year. He can be a very valuable piece of the infield for the next 5 years with Lee/Lewis/Correa/Miranda, and brings some more left-handedness to that group. He's done more to prove he can hack it in the majors than any other prospect at or below AAA, which shouldn't be underrated.
  4. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Martin has not been very impressive at 2B and there's probably very little chance they move Royce there this year. Besides, Julien has made huge strides forward defensively and was actually quite good to start the year. Defensive flexibility never hurts, not to mention that he'd never start at 1B over Santana anyway.
  5. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Will he turn out? Who knows! But it will be fun to watch him over the next few years!
  6. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Eduardo Núñez was never able to find one
  7. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    So we're just going to ignore how he's playing now and only talk about the first 2 months of the year?
  8. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    To be fair to Donaldson, while he is a total douche so is Dan Bellino. That I can remember his name tells me all I need to know about him as an ump, he's in it for personal glory.
  9. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Some slick deals this offseason in offloading Polo for Gabriel Gonzalez and company, and getting Doncon & Margot for Miller who is putting up his usual .700 OPS in A-ball. Oh and Okert for Nick Gordon, too.
  10. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    With Stewart and Topa on their way back and Varland/Festa/Paddack pretty much set up to be bullpen guys for the postseason I'm not sure there's really all that much to be done at the deadline there. Maybe they could pick up a lefty, but most of the good LHR on teams that should be selling have a bunch of team control left - which just ups the price and paying for relievers with term is usually not a good idea. This list includes Andrew Nardi, Sam Moll, Joe Mantiply (AZ may not sell anyway), Robert Garcia, Tanner Banks. So, the other rental-type options for a left-handed reliever would be (ordered by how good they are) Tanner Scott (last year of arb @ $5.7M) Andrew Chafin ($4.75M with a $6.5M club option for 2025 [500k buyout]) Justin Wilson (rental at $1.5M this year) Jalen Beeks (last year of arb @ $1.675M) Only Scott and Chafin seem like significant upgrades to me, and I am not sure how they make room for a 3rd lefty reliever - I highly doubt they will DFA Thielbar this year unless he really blows up again.
  11. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Eovaldi is the only name that really intrigues me. Robertson would be a good addition to the pen, and maybe he could be had for a couple of flier prospects like the Marlins traded for him last year.
  12. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    KC is a bad matchup for any similar quality pitcher, they just hit the snot out of the ball. I don't believe that a #3-5 guy that can be had for a reasonable(ish) trade price is an upgrade the postseason rotation, or that it's a good idea to trade for a slight upgrade for one possible matchup. I also don't think Bailey is the same pitcher as he was the last time he faced the Royals.
  13. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    I think I saw something recently that the league is already adjusting, but it could maybe just be the warmer weather effect. Also wow Kikuchi has had a HR/FB% over 15% in each of the previous 3 seasons, and he's 'down' to 12.5% this year.
  14. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    I think his FIP looks a little shinier than it should because when he gives up contact it's hard contact. Bottom 10th percentile in exit velocity & hard hit rate and nearly there in barrel rate too. I agree he's definitely got the foundation to be a solid starter with the K% & BB%, but they'd have to figure out how to prevent more of the hard contact. Would definitely be an intriguing get if they can buy low on him.
  15. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Tyler Anderson looks like smoke and mirrors to me. He doesn't get hit very hard, but he also doesn't strike anyone out and walks too many, gives up too many flyballs (nearly as often as Joe Ryan). Predictive ERA estimators pretty much all have his ERA up in the 4.5-5.2 range. Seems ready to blow up after being traded, I think.
  16. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Unless a major injury occurs between now and the deadline, I just don't really understand what the Twins would get out of trading for a #3-5 starter. None of the Toronto pitchers (or basically anyone that will be on the market besides Crochet) are good enough to slot above Pablo/Ryan/Ober in the postseason rotation - although Gausman is intriguing with his history of being an ace, he's really lost it this year, his expected ERA from the contact he's given up is 5.27 which is 10th percentile league-wide. After a quick glance at his stats, it looks like the splitter has lost a bit over half a mph and an inch of drop which has resulted in a nearly 10% drop in the whiff rate against that pitch. To compensate, he's throwing pitches in the zone more often than last year while also giving up more contact on pitches out of the strike zone. His barrel rate has been steadily climbing since 2021, so if he can't get strikeouts because of a loss of stuff on his best pitch unfortunately he might already be on the wrong side of the cliff.
  17. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Regarding arm strength, for what it's worth the latest MLB Pipeline scouting grade (I know the grade isn't necessarily just arm strength but it's all we've got) for both guys have them at a 55. Fangraphs had Lewis at 50 & Lee at 55.
  18. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    I still believe in Julien on both sides of the ball. A very high OBP player would be another dimension for this lineup, and he was playing a good 2B before the (deserved) demotion. Royce is definitely a question mark, I could see him being the RH side of the platoon with Julien and spelling anyone else in the IF & DH. I have my doubts that he will ever see the OF again, and I'd rather have Castro out there anyway. I'd trade one of Larnach or Wallner and give Kiersey Jr a shot - better defensively and just feels like a hitter who is less prone to prolonged slumps. I wonder how long they'll be able to afford Castro. If he ends up with 4+ WAR this season, I could see him getting in the neighborhood of 10M in his last year of arbitration. It would be a big jump, but he's been incredibly valuable and it's not out of line with some recent comps in Edman/Adames/Arraez. After that, he might not be affordable in free agency depending on the tightness of the purse strings. It's a good problem to have, but I'm very interested in how they work out the logjam of young players who can't really stay in St. Paul all that much longer.
  19. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Seems a little late for this article. April: .394/.447/.636 (.363/.421/.666 expected slash), 10.5% BB%, 93.9 mph exit velo, 53.8% hard hit, .451 xwOBA May: .203/.261/.344 (.282/.334/.475 expected slash), 7.2% BB%, 94.3 mph exit velo, 52.0% hard hit, .348 xwOBA June: .239/.276/.437 (.266/.301/.471 expected slash), 5.3% BB%, 89.7 mph exit velo, 32.8% hard hit, .328 xwOBA July .071/.278/.071 (.038/.252/.041 expected slash), 22.2% BB%, 77.5 mph exit velo, 16.7% hard hit, .180 xwOBA
  20. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Just a gut feel that more running/opportunities for sprinting would be worse for his legs, at least for the next couple years. Can't say with confidence one way or the other, though.
  21. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Seems more popular than you thought! I agree in the very small sample we've seen so far, Lee just seems to have a really solid floor at 3rd. I wouldn't put Royce in the OF, though, given that most of his injuries have been lower body. Lee - Correa - Lewis/Julien - Miranda/whoever seems like the ideal IF positioning for the next few years, with a ton of flexibility for guys to swap in as-needed.
  22. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Lee's throw on the run to get Dubon by 15 feet on a bunt was really impressive. Castro, to my eye, has been pretty good at SS. He flubs more plays than Carlos, but the extra speed helps him range to balls that Correa wouldn't get to. I wonder if Royce ends up at 2B. His arm has been somewhat worrying, though I'm sure with more reps it'd be fine. Lee just seems like a more consistent fielder right away.
  23. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Staumont hitting 100 was very impressive today. Looks like he's really found something, and while the results have been pretty lucky for him so far (.136 BABIP), the slider has been a weapon so far and the more velo he gets on his fastball the better everything will play. Thielbar had a nice bounceback week, I thought he pitched well to back up the results. Winder looked pretty good in his first inning of work, but at this point he's got too much to prove to only be good for 1-inning at a time. Buxton, per Fangraphs, has already provided more value than his salary this year. Nice to get some production from Jeffers and Vazquez this week. Definitely contributed to a few of the wins in this series-winning streak. What more can be said about Jose Miranda? Oh, did anyone know his cousin is Lin-Manuel Miranda! The guy who wrote Hamilton!
  24. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    The boys are really hitting now! Since June 1 the offense ranks: 1st in wOBA (.360), xwOBA (.350) and OPS (.848) 3rd in Barrels (78), Exit Velocity (90.4 mph), K rate (13.1%) and ground ball rate (39%) 6th in hard hit rate (42.8%) 7th in line drive rate (20.7%) and fly ball rate (40.3%) 9th in bat speed (71.9 mph), barrel rate (9.5%) and pull rate (41.7%) 10th in Whiff rate (22.3%) Hit the ball hard, keep it off the ground, pull flyballs, don't whiff. Fairly simple analytical approach, can't argue with the efficacy.
  25. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Knowing the game, again, is not any kind of proof that those guys threw 100 mph. There has been zero such proof, just like I stated a couple days ago.
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