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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    White Sox roster still has a lot of holes: Cabrera, LaRoche, whoever they put at shortstop, back end of the rotation, front end of the bullpen. I'll take the Twins moving forward without a second thought. The depth and upside of their system is far superior to both the Sox and the Tigers. The only problem is, it may be 2017 before we see the difference.
  2. dbminn
    The back end of the bullpen will be decent. Perkins, Fien and Jepsen all have a solid history of Shutdowns to Meltdowns. The rest of the pen looks better than the beginning of last season. Sadly, "better" won't be enough for a postseason run. To truly compete, at least one prospect will have to perform at a high level. The Twins have plenty of prospects and I expect we will see several of them this year. Hopefully, one comes through. Like with the everyday lineup, the Twins are committed to the long term. I would've traded Plouffe in a deal that included a LHRP to give them a better chance this year. TR didn't listen. Too bad, because all of my imaginary deals outperform the Twins FO.
  3. dbminn
    The Twins have more rotation depth than every team in the AL Central. Steamer projections at Fangraphs show seven pitchers with the potential to be at least "average" (2 WAR) with 200 IP, not including Trevor May. While the Indians and White Sox each have a front three that blow the Twins away in terms of projections, they have no depth. They will be more vulnerable to injuries than the Twins and both will have to scramble to win two of every five games. I'd love to have a Sale or Kluber at the front of the Twins rotation. Still, the Twins SP looks a lot better than a couple of years ago because of their depth. I believe Milone will be #4 and the last spot will be a Spring Training fight between Nolasco and Duffey. Nolasco will get the benefit of the doubt but it is not guaranteed. Berrios will not break camp with the Twins unless there are injuries. An extra year at age 28 is much more valuable than a few weeks this season by any measure of risk you want to use given the number of young players that will be on the team.
  4. dbminn
    I agree with the super utility role. Gotta partially disagree on the Dyson comparison. Santana has shown the potential to be as good on the base paths as Dyson and he has a better hitting history. Dyson will always be the better OF defender but Santana has a chance to be more valuable because of his bat and his middle IF experience. Sadly, Santana's value might not be realized with the Twins. Dyson didn't become a full-time major leaguer until he was 28 years old. Santana will be long gone if he doesn't reach his potential early this year.
  5. dbminn
    Santana is slated to be a utility player. Sounds like he'll play more in the OF than SS. Seems like a better plan than DFA. Santana just turned 25 years old. He improved as a CF during his first year and he'll get better as time goes on. His speed fits nicely on a team with more than enough plodders. He suffered through some adversity in 2015 but he went to AAA and recovered with the bat (143 WRC+). He still has a chance to be a solid contributor by using his athleticism wherever they put him in the field. Not an impossible task (Molitor played seven positions during his career). Ryan is giving him the best chance to make the team. I hope he does well and sticks with the Twins.
  6. dbminn
    Gibson has the potential to move another step up the ladder. He showed progress on strikeouts last year. His other big issue was pitching with runners on base. He improved from the stretch last year as well. Let's hope he can get to Radke's level. Another Radke note: I prefer not to use FIP-WAR when measuring a contact pitcher's career performance. His RA9-WAR was 45.3 (3.8 rWAR/yr). He had only two years where his FIP-WAR exceeded his RA9-WAR. He was a very good pitcher.
  7. dbminn
    The good team/bad team split between the two leagues is remarkable. The six teams projected to have the fewest wins are all in the NL. The AL Central will be a dogfight, with the Twins finishing either 3rd or 4th. I still can't project the Sox above the Twins and the Tigers have too many key players with injury risk. That being said, all five teams are flawed and all have potential. Should be an interesting year.
  8. dbminn
    One reason to be excited about Twins Daily in 2016: Spring Training is going to be incredibly controversial. Bullpen prospects will get a good look, the Arcia/Vargas competition, a clogged rotation, Sano in the OF, Joe Mauer... Should make for a lot of commentary.
  9. dbminn
    Cody, I like your list. I would probably rank Kohl Stewart lower than all of the others listed. ExpectMore, I hope you're right about ABW II. I will contribute two names: Nick Burdi and Mitch Garver. I think Burdi has a good chance of reaching the majors this year based on his improved mechanics in the AFL. Garver is my long-odds choice for a breakout season with the bat.
  10. dbminn
    The hitch in Arcia's swing is monumental. His head moves all over the place. I don't even love to hate to love that swing anymore. I hope all of Wade's swings look so good. And Kepler... wow.
  11. dbminn
    About 70 percent of pitchers who ranked as Top 50-100 Prospects gave their major league teams less than 3.0 WAR total during their 6 years under control according to this research: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/how-much-an-mlb-prospect-is-worth-updated-trade-surplus-values/ Gibson and Duffey have been reasonably successful and should end up contributing well above average WAR while under control. Too early to tell about Burdi, Reed, Cederoth, Williams, Jay and others drafted in recent years. RE: RP and aging. I have a real problem with the aging curves put together by FanGraphs. A lot of RP have one good year in middle relief, get a couple more years to prove themselves but can't continue to develop. Instead, look at last year's top 30 RP, either by WAR or WPA (preferred, IMO). Average age was 28.6 years old. Only Ken Giles was under 25 for WPA. Add Osuna at 20 years old if you prefer WAR. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,4,5,11,7,8,13,-1,36,37,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,45,62,-1,59,63,3&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d
  12. dbminn
    Too bad he wasn't available back when the Twins had Boof Bonser.
  13. dbminn
    I sympathize but Ryan (and his staff during the Smith era) has been in Group 3. Here's a recent article at Hardball Times that looks at BA Top-100 prospects and their correlation with winning percentage. The last two times the Twins had playoff runs fits nicely with this theory (see figure). Basically, the author shows that having an average of five prospects per year for three years leads to a good five-year run. That's where the Twins are at right now. Other teams are the Red Sox, Rangers, Cubs and Pirates. D-Backs have had 14 prospects in the last three years. http://www.hardballtimes.com/a-visual-history-of-baseball-americas-top-100-prospect-lists/ I agree that Ryan hasn't been able to take the last step when they arrive at the playoffs: sign a key free agent. It's my biggest concern. PS - I wouldn't call the Revere trade a failure just yet.
  14. dbminn
    I would've liked the Twins to have made a play for Soria. Otherwise, I'm with Shane - trade for a LHRP. It doesn't have to happen this week. In general, the Twins have two options moving forward: Win this year. Sacrifice future payroll by signing FA or future depth by trading prospects. This could include a multiplayer trade. Try to build for beyond 2016, with a roster primarily from within (at least for now).Seems to me, the Twins have opted for Door #2. This doesn't mean they will "stand pat" for the next five years. They will probably proceed as announced this year, picking up an extra OF and RP. Next year should involve bigger moves after they see what the prospects bring to the table. I've been a supporter of building from within. Lately, I've wanted to see a blockbuster trade. Probably just getting bored with the off-season
  15. dbminn
    You pose a fine alternative. I would actually rather see the Twins move in your direction (I would add Span to the list of possible OF). I posted this scenario just to get some discussion other than Nolasco for Shields, which is a non-starter. But to further the debate, I don't think it's such a crazy trade. First, I agree the Twins would be taking a risk, just not as doom and gloom as your assessment. Upton was a 110 WRC+ last year and he's a good defender (1.6 WAR in 228 PA - equals a little less than 4 WAR for 600 PA). Shields is a risk but I see a pitcher who tried to do too much last year (High BB, K and HR). FanGraphs has him for 3 WAR this year. The Twins have players well above replacement value to play 3B and middle infield. They don't have a full OF unless everything turns up roses.
  16. dbminn
    Good post. Just for discussion - I think Upton will be more valuable than 0.5 WAR and I don't use WAR for relievers. Finally, we have to look at who the Twins have as replacements. I wouldn't make this trade if we were short at 3B or middle infield. Still, you make a good point.
  17. dbminn
    Plouffe, Polanco and Nolasco for Shields, Pomeranz and Melvin Upton. Payroll Change (Shields + Upton) - (Plouffe + Nolasco) 2016 - ($21M + $15.4M) - ($7.7M + $11M) = $17.7M 2017 - ($21M + $16.4M) - ($13M? + $12M) = $12.4M 2018 - $23M = $23.0M TOTAL PADRES SAVINGS/TWINS COST = $53.1M or $17.7M per year Twins get a LHRP, a 3.0 WAR starter and a veteran OF.Padres get salary relief, a solid middle infield prospect, a 2.0+ WAR 3B/1B and a questionable starter. (Plouffe could be spun at some point for a couple of prospects)I'm more bullish on Melvin Upton than Fangraphs and probably everyone on this site. I expect him to repeat 2015. Twins get 1 yr Shields, 2yr Upton and a LHRP for $9.1M if Shields opts out. Not saying I'm all for this trade. Just trying to be creative.
  18. dbminn
    Great question. Sophomore year is tough to predict. IMO, the FanGraphs Steamer projection pretty much reflects my thoughts on Sano: 29.5%K/11.5%BB and .255/.304/.544. Most of the decreased production from 2015 is based on a lower BABIP. I think he might walk a bit more than projected. Rosario is a real wild card for 2016. Steamer projections are not good: 20.8%K/4.4%BB and .258/.292/.412. BABIP drops to .305. The projections do reflect an improved K rate. I'm more bullish on Rosario than Steamer. His BABIP will be about .320 because of his speed. Not unusual.He's already had to make adjustments. Rosario had a tough August 2015 (.228/.245/.416). He came back in September to be a league-average hitter, even though his BABIP was .288.I predict K rate will be down for both players and both will be productive. Rosario definitely has more downside risk because he's such a free swinger.
  19. dbminn
    I think the Twins need to sign or trade for better than a backup OF. I believe Plouffe will be traded. That leaves Rosario as the only established OF and he has only one year of experience. What are the odds that one of Rosario, Kepler and Buxton are either not MLB-ready or get injured? There is no harm having four good OF in the best case. Beats the current risk of ending up with less than three good OF. Three Winter Meeting Options: Option 1 - Easy Span - 2 yr/$28M (Fangraphs says 3/$36. At today's prices, still not so bad) Option 2 - Youth Ozuna - Trade Duffey, Jake Reed and a third player to Miami. (3rd player depends on what you think Ozuna is worth) Option 3 - Never Gonna Happen but would be Fun Heyward - 9 yr/$207M with a 4-year player option. What if Kepler, Buxton and Rosario all turn out perfectly wonderful? Trade either Ozuna/Span, Rosario or Kepler next year. What if Plouffe isn't traded? Well, just sign Gentry or some other 4th OF and see what happens, I guess.
  20. dbminn
    He looks larger than ever... but that swing! http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/this-is-grainy-footage-of-miguel-sano-homering-minutes-ago/ https://cdn.streamable.com/video/mp4/4scy.mp4
  21. dbminn
    Signing Nunez is perfectly fine. Reserve utility infielders who hit league average with some power are worth at least what he'll be paid. He can be traded later in the year if the Twins think they have a better option for his role. I'm surprised they tendered Fien. I would've let him leave.
  22. dbminn
    My guess is Santana will be on the Twins bench or in CF to begin 2016. Others on the bench will include Suzuki (ha!), Nunez, and either Arcia or OF to be determined. (Both Arcia and OF TBD will be on bench if Buxton isn't ready).
  23. dbminn
    I think Plouffe will be traded only if the Twins get a reasonable return. Since a trade isn't guaranteed, Ryan has to plan that all four players will be on the roster. I don't like the idea of Sano playing the outfield. I'm not as worried as some are about injury. I just want to see good OF defense backing a pitching staff that puts the ball in play. Still, having all four players is not a bad scenario. Added power is needed and at least one of the four will get injured during the season.
  24. dbminn
    Great reporting, Parker. A lot of fragments from the past put into context. Watching the three Valencia swings, it seems that he finishes on his heel in the first two and more on the flat/ball of the foot in the Toronto video. Seems he's in better balance now.
  25. dbminn
    Rosenthal quote: "#Twins’ signing of Park reinforces unfairness of posting system. Player has no leverage if he burns to play in majors. At MLB team’s mercy." Low dollar signing takes pressure off the player as well, IMO. No one should be screaming if doesn't perform from day 1. Four years to recoup $25 million is a pretty safe bet.
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