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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    Pictured: Terry Ryan on whether his bullpen is at risk of burning down. http://i.imgur.com/CoDcWqn.gif
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    Those numbers are pretty misleading. Take a look at what he's done away from PetCo--71.2 IP, 4.90 ERA, opposing batters are OPS'ing .816 off him (which is better than Tulowitzki when he's not at Coors), 9.42 k/9, 3.27 bb/9, and a 4.19 FIP. Then look at his trends this year--his k/9 has gone down every month, from 11.9 to 8. His bb/9 has gone up from 2.61, to 4. You also can't play the "take away x statistic game" without citing the other side. For example, take away his two starts where he gave up 0 ER, and he's been a 4.14 ERA pitcher in 20 starts. Finally, unless the Padres are taking back Nolasco AND another pitcher, he simply adds to our SP log jam next year, where two out of May/Berrios/Duffey can't start. Is he better than those guys? Probably, but not at a 21 million dollar price tag, which is what his contract is each of the next 3 years (which also makes his contract, assuming no Nolasco, a 3 year, 39M one, not 3 years, 33M). In short, I'll trade for Shields, but only if the Padres take back Nolasco, do not get Kepler/Stewart/Berrios/Polanco in return, and we get Norris and/or a reliever not named Benoit. In other words, if I were Twins GM, I wouldn't get him, because the Padres I'm sure would not take what I would offer, and I'd be a-ok with that.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31g0YE61PLQ
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    After 3 straight appearances giving up a run (4 if you include the ASG), I sure hope Perkins is injured (albeit non-arm category). If not, we potentially have a much bigger problem.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    Segura is WORSE than what the Twins have right now--Escobar. Esco has a better OPS, and with more playing time would close the gap on average and OBP, as he hits the ball hard far more often than Segura. He also has a better track record defensively than Segura too. Why Esco's not starting over DanSan is a mystery only Molitor can explain.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    Very heartened to see the line from Kohl. IMO, he's the most important prospect for 2016; if he can re-establish his bona fides as a potential #1 or 2, our organizational pitching depth will be in extremely good shape.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    O'Day also wouldn't have helped much against A-Rod yesterday. He definitely wouldn't have been in for homer 1. Homer 2 came in the seventh, when Milone had just given up his second hit, so no reason to pull him there. Homer 3 led off the ninth against your all-star closer, so no reason to have him in there either. Sometimes, the other guy just wins.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    I like Trevor, and he's a valuable piece, but I have to point out that his 2012 slash line which you said "left something to be desired", is barely worse than his current slash. The BA is only .018 lower (which equates to 1 more hit every 12 to 13 games), the OBP is only .014 lower (1 more time on base every 15 to 16 games), and a lower SLG. His glove is vastly improved, but his bat is fairly stagnant.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Is that you Gardy?!?
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    Leaving aside whether clutch is a real thing or not, ABW hits extremely well with only 1 runner on, but very poorly with multiple runners on. The numbers below are somewhat nebulous as MiLB.com doesn't show plate appearances, but it paints a picture of a guy who is better with runners on (as you would expect from almost any hitter). Interestingly, only 5 of his 26 walks have come with 1st base occupied, leading me to believe at least some of his walks are of the "unintentional" variety--therefore, his plate discipline is probably even worse than his 1-to-5.4 bb/k ratio would suggest. Bases Empty--.230/.312/.421 in 152 AB's Runner at 1st--.277/.302/.759 in 83 AB's Runners at 1st & 2nd--.148/.207/.259 in 27 AB's Runners at 1st & 3rd--.167/.154/.417 in 12 AB's Runner at 2nd--.500/.529/1.125 in 32 AB's Runners at 2nd & 3rd--.143/.222/.286 in 7 AB's Runner at 3rd--.462/.467/.923 in 13 AB's Bases Loaded--.143/.200/.214 in 14 AB's
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    But I thought Gardy wouldn't have allowed this to happen...
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    The title of this thread is somewhat to very misleading, depending on one's opinion of Sickels.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Twins Wins: 37.5 OVER Mauer's OPS: .815 OVER Dozier HRs: 14.5 UNDER Sano HRs: 9.5 OVER Hicks: .350 OBP OVER Sano OPS: .900 UNDER Hunter HR: 8.5 OVER Perkins Saves: 22.5 UNDER Gibson ERA: 3.25 OVER Santana ERA: 3.50 OVER Hughes ERA: 3.75 OVER Arcia PA: 150 UNDER Buxton PA: 150 OVER Trevor May Starts: 5.5 UNDER Mike Pelfrey Starts: 5.5 OVER Alex Meyer IP: 6.5 UNDER Jose Berrios IP: 15.5 UNDER Kurt Suzuki OPS: .600 UNDER RP acquired via free agency and trade: 1.5 UNDER Catchers acquired via trade: 0.5 UNDER Trevor Plouffe OPS: .775 OVER Brian Duensing ERA: 3.80 UNDER Blaine Boyer ERA: 3.80 OVER Casey Fien ERA: 3.80 OVER
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    I would assume that, logically, if someone gets married twice in the same year, they have not become a second person. Because the stat is counting the number of people getting married, and not the number of marriages, whether a person is married once in a year or ten times in a year, they count as 1. Therefore, the odd number of people getting married is explained by there being an odd number of people getting married multiple times in the year.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    I'll go so far as to say the Brewers aren't going to trade Lucroy for anything less than a King's ransom. Very quietly, since being 18-36 headed into their first series with the Twins, the Brewers are 23-16. That's 6 weeks of 95-win baseball, so if I'm the Brewers' GM, I'm fairly optimistic that I should be adding players in the offseason to compete in 2016, not selling off pieces at the 2015 deadline in order to rebuild in 2016.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    There's also some guy named Johan Santana who started in the bullpen before transitioning to starter. That one turned out pretty ok.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    Umm, you realize that his 2.8 UZR puts him 6th in the entire league for right fielders? Torii hasn't been gold glove caliber or anything, but he is miles better than anyone could have thought he'd be in the field. Arcia, by contrast, has amassed a negative 2.7 WAR this year in only 146 innings.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    How about the guy with an all-time great name, and an all-time great quote? When a game was fogged out in Cleveland, he stated "that's what they get for building a stadium on the ocean". The immortal Oil Can Boyd
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm gonna be an optimist here, but I say the Twins make it. They have just enough hitting and pitching to survive in a wide-open AL. We're really competing against only a handful of teams--1 out of Houston and LA, and 3 out of NY/Toronto/Baltimore/Tampa. I think Detroit, Cleveland, and the White Sox are demonstrably worse than us, and we have a lead on all of them. The Mariners, Rangers, and A's are too far out of it, ditto the Red Sox.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    But would your granddaughter identify herself as from South Dakota, or from California?
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    To the end of maybe fetching something in a trade, since O'Rourke was called up to be the LOOGY, and should be more than adequate in that role (14.5 k/9, and struck out 18 of the 27 lefties he faced this year, while only giving up 3 hits). If O'Rourke can't cut it, let Rogers be the LOOGY, otherwise let him hold his value as a starter.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    Just out of curiosity, where would you play this big, power-hitting first base type?
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    Arcia really only has value to the Twins if Plouffe gets traded, allowing Sano to take third and opening up DH. Otherwise, I'd rather have the Rosario/Buxton/Hicks outfield, with Kepler joining at some point.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Gordon finished June slashing .293/.370/.341/.711. So far in July he's at .359/.375/.436/.811. That's 7 weeks of pretty good production from a kid who doesn't turn 20 until the World Series.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    For me, there is a difference between phenom and stud. Stud is an all-star, even a borderline MVP-type player. A phenom is a generational talent, a guy who has a legitimate shot at the HOF, a guy grandpas will tell their grandkids about seeing play. The Twins have plenty of potential studs in the system--Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Hu, Gonsalves, etc. As I see it they have two potential phenoms, one of whom is a long-shot to realize that potential, and another for whom it's too far away to tell. ABW II: this is all about power and production. If he controls the K rate, there's no reason he can't hit 40+ homers a year, and drive in 120+, and be half of the best 1-2 power punch in the majors. He's still only 23, and will be this whole year. However, his K rate is the worst of his career and his BB rate is largely static. Wander Javier: so far off, and so raw. He could be the next Miguel Sano. He could flame out in the minors, but if he can develop like Sano did, and keep his speed, defense, and add a bat with power, that's a cornerstone at shortstop.
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