Cap'n Piranha

It's really not BS dude, you need to get over that. Most players careers are curves--Benoit's peaked in 2010, as in, that was the best he ever was, and he's never been that good again. Not only has he never been that good again, he's getting further away from being that good. Sure, maybe his numbers aren't down that much from last year, and maybe his 2014 numbers aren't down that much from 2013, but when you put together a 5 year run, his numbers are down. Look at his numbers right now--he's not a good reliever. He's the definition of replacement. He's not going to turn our leaky bullpen into the Royals' bullpen. Every minute TR is haggling with the Padres over Benoit, he's not pursuing better options, and the thing is; The better options are pretty easy to figure out... A.J. Ramos Jason Grilli Koji Uehara Carson Smith/Mark Lowe Will Smith Papelbon All better options than Benoit, some cheaper, some more expensive, but all better, which is what matters.

I didn't choose 2009 because he didn't pitch in 2009 due to rotator cuff surgery. I didn't choose 2005 because almost a third of his appearances were as a starter. I picked 2010 because that gives 5 and a half years of data, all of which came after his surgery, no luck involved whatsoever. If you admit that he won't be as good as he's been, why would we buy high on him? Regardless of whether he'd be our second best bullpen option, he wouldn't be a good option, so why waste time and resources on trying to acquire him, when there are other, better options we could pursue instead?

I'm a big Dozier believer, but many of the points you used to champion Dozier, particularly in regards to whether he should be in the All-Star game, would point to Dozier not being the best second baseman in the league. For this year, that man is Jason Kipnis. WAR--Kipnis is out performing Dozier by 50%, with a 4.8 WAR to Dozier's 3.2. OPS--Kipnis is far clear of Dozier, as he is OPS'ing .904 to Dozier's .843 Kipnis is also walking more than Dozier, striking out less, batting 70 points higher, OBP'ing nearly 80 points higher, and within 20 points of slugging. He's also, according to fangraphs, been better than Dozier on the basepaths, and in the field as well. Dozier should definitely have gotten into the game above Altuve, but unfortunately, Altuve is who the fans voted in.

Did you know that Now Here is Nowhere? Or did I just blow your mind?

When it's Kurt Suzuki doing the bunting to put runners at 2nd and 3rd with only one out, I really like bunts.

Let me get this straight--by expanding my sample size I'm cherry picking? And since my argument is that his low BABIP is unsustainable, meaning his ERA is likely to regress towards his FIP, which is a bottom quartile number, I'd say your admission that his ERA and BABIP are unsustainable indicates you agree with me.

That's not even close to true. Plus, since they're inanimate, they feel no pain, and not having rights, can't send you to jail. On the downside, beating pajamas in public will probably lead to widespread questions about one's mental stability.

Based off what I saw on gameday, that was a very bad at bat by Mr Hunter. Bruno apparently needs to tell him not to swing at first pitch balls, or even first pitch marginal strikes, for that matter.

Thing is, I'm not cherry-picking. I used his numbers in 2010 as a reference point, and I took care to cover what has happened since then (k rate down from any year 2010-2014, bb rate steadily ascending every year except last from 2010, and now at it's worst since 2006). Sure there's no trend on his velocity, but it is down, which would explain his declining stats, and given his age, is far more likely to become a trend than a mirage.

Except that 4 of the 6 Royals currently on the team were voted in by fans, and had nothing to do with Yost. Ditto Moustakas if he makes it. The only two Royals going because of Yost are Davis and Herrera, who are very defensible selections, especially Davis. I would have gone with Robertson or Miller over Herrera, but I totally get a manager wanting to both reward and roll with his own guys.

Sure, but the essence of your argument was "don't worry that he's currently in Petco, he's been good outside of Petco too!" A very salient point to that is that he is now older, and could be in his decline, which is what I was arguing. As it turns out, the stats back that up. His k/9 has gone from 11.19 5 years ago to 8.25 this year, which is a full k lower than at any point in the last 5 years. His BB/9 has gone from 1.64 5 years ago to 3.25 this year, and with the exception of last year, has gone up every year since 2010. His FIP and xFIP are both sharply up from where he's been the past 5 years, and the success he's having this year is being aided by a ludicrously unsustainable BABIP. His velocity is down. If he was 27, I'd say this could be a slump, or bad cluster luck. But he's not 27; he's nearly 38, and Father Time is undefeated. All of this rolls up into the larger argument which is, should the Twins try to acquire Benoit. I say no, based on my belief, backed up by the stats above, that age is catching up to him, and I'd rather not pay in player(s) and money to be there when it does, especially when there is a reasonable case to be made that players currently controlled by the Twins could be just as good, if not better.

Dude, you're the one who said Benoit's FIP was fine; you introduced that stat. If you think FIP isn't a good indicator, why say it shouldn't be a deterrent for adding Benoit? If it is a good indicator, Benoit has pitched like Aaron Thompson, and just gotten lucky. Nor do I think the AAA crew will step in and dominate. But since the stats suggest Benoit is unlikely to continue dominating, it's sort of a wash there. I also don't think TR is going to simultaneously trade for a veteran and bring up AAA guys. I'd love it if he surprised me and cut loose Duensing and Fien, but I doubt that happens. So, in a world where I can have either Benoit or a AAA guy, but not both, I choose the AAA guy.

No, his only success was not when he was in the league's best pitcher's park, but his success outside of that park came when he was 32-34, not 37. Hence the comment, using Mauer as an example, stating that just because someone WAS good doesn't mean he'll BE good. I'd rather not burn a prospect and $5.5m to find out if he can continue to defy the fact that his peripherals suggest he's not as good as his "standard" numbers. I'm not jumping for joy at the idea of making Achter/Oliveros/Tonkin our 8th inning guy, but I'd rather do that than make Benoit the 8th inning guy. What I'd really like is to trade for someone better than either of those options, like Jason Grilli. Owed about 2m this year, 3.5 next year, with a 3m option for 2017 (and only a .2m buyout). Yes he's older, but his numbers are much better than Benoit (2.07 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, 12k/9, 2.67 BB/9), and have been largely stable over the past few years while Benoit's are all in decline. Offer Atlanta Taylor Rogers, and call it a day.

Lou Gehrig should be at first on the all-time team, and in the conversation for greatest player ever. Consider the below; Gehrig played essentially 14 seasons (1925 through 1938), and posted a WAR of 116. That means he averaged 8.3 WAR per year. Ruth is at 10 for 16 years (hitting only). Mays is at 7.7 for 19, Aaron is at 6.4 for 21, Musial is at 6.5 for 19.For 13 of his 14 years, Gehrig walked more than he struck out, including 7 straight years where he drew more than twice as many walks as strikeouts. Ruth drew more BB's than K's 15 of 16 years, but only was above the 2/1 BB/k ratio 3 times. Mays only did this 9 times, and never 2/1, Aaron also 9x and never 2/1, although Musial actually never struck out more than he walked; he also achieved the 2/1 ratio 15 times, including the first 13 years of his career.Only once in his career did Gehrig NOT have more XBH than K's. That happened to Ruth 5 times, Mays 7 times, Aaron 6 times, and Musial only once.Gehrig twice had more home runs in a season than strikeouts. Ruth, Mays, and Aaron never did that, Musial did it once.Gehrig's best statistical season was 1927, when he slashed .373/.474/.765 (1.239), with 52 2B, 18 3B, and 47 HR. He drove in 175 runs, scored 149 himself, walked 109 times, and struck out 84. My favorite season of his was 1934, when he slashed .363/.465/.706 (1.171), with 40 2B, 6 3B, and 49 HR. He drove in 165 runs, scored 128, walked 109 times, and only struck out 31 times. He had 3 times as many XBH's as k's!!!Gehrig's career low OPS was .896, as a 22 year old in his first professional season. That would have been 9th, 14th, 12th, 19th, and 17th over the past 5 seasons.

Yeah, keep going.

Saying xFIP below 4 is a good thing is ridiculous. Only 38 out of 135 qualified relievers have xFIP's over 4--he ranks 89th out of those 135 on xFIP, only marginally better than his FIP rank. His velocity is also down, at least half a MPH, across the board. His bb rate has increased every year since 2010, with last year being the sole outlier, which also suggests his current bb/9 rate is here to stay, and is not an oddity of SSS. If we're targeting Padres' middle relievers, lets go after Shawn Kelley instead--better k rate, bb rate, FIP and xFIP, in addition to being much cheaper. Or better yet, go with our in-house options that will most likely be at least as good as Benoit, if not better, and will not cost a prospect of any level.

And Joe Mauer was a .400 OBP hitter for most of his career. Things change as players get older.

You're right, his FIP is definitely fine, if by fine you mean 100th out of 135 qualified relievers. FYI, Aaron Thompson is 91st.

Gardner. Even more important to #votedozier now.

Yes in theory, you can trade for Benoit and bring up a AAA'er. But let's be honest, that won't happen. If we acquire a veteran RP, I guarantee that none of the AAA guys will be up until September (barring injury). As for why so many are uninterested, Benoit's stats seem to strongly suggest he's on the edge of the cliff, and could fall over at any time.

I gotta get myself to Kwik Trip, I love Soylent Green.

And because we have less room for error, that's why I don't want Benoit, but rather one of our AAA guys, because I believe they will actually be better than Benoit. Oliveros--strip out his 4 spot starts, and he's striking out more than 12/9, while walking 4.5/9 (Benoit is 8.25/9 and 3.25/9). Oliveros has a BABIP of .383, and still has a lower FIP, by almost a full run, than Benoit with his .141 BABIP. Achter--9k/9 and 2.3bb/9, with a 3.69 FIP Tonkin--he would be my last choice, but he could potentially benefit from some certainty. In AAA, he's at almost 13k/9, with only 1.3bb/9. He's got a .290 BABIP, but his FIP is 1.36. I'd rather see what any/all of those 3 can do, rather than give up a player, and have to shell out 5M+.

Sure. AJ Achter, Lester Oliveros, and/or Michael Tonkin.

I pass. His ERA is more than a run-and-a-half below his FIP and xFIP, and his success is being buoyed by a completely unsustainable .141 BABIP (his previous career best was .192, and that's when he struck out more than 11/9, not barely 8/9). For comparison's sake, his FIP/xFIP is only slightly lower than Boyer's, which leads me to believe that if his name was John Bennett, there wouldn't be as much interest.

Where exactly is J.P. Mauer playing in this scenario? And don't tell me catcher, because as much as that seems like a perfect solution, it isn't happening.