chpettit19

The longest playoff losing streak in North American sports history is driven way more by the failure of the offense in the postseason than the pitching. Look no further than last year where the "guys of this caliber" gave the Twins every chance in the world to win both of those games.

You conveniently didn't include the part of my posts where I listed stats and information. Like since 2016 Berrios being #35 in fWAR to Happ's #38. Or where I mentioned he's #28 in best ERA in the game since 2015. Right after Sonny Gray and James Paxton and ahead of Maeda. 2 guys many on here are begging to be signed or traded for and ahead of the guy most everyone lists as the Twins current #1. He doesn't need to do anything but what he has been doing. Including last year where he had an ERA+ of 123 compared to Berrios' 109. He doesn't strike people out like Berrios, but basically every other stat goes to Happ. Sorry the numbers don't reflect your perception of how things are, but he's been a very good pitcher for a long time and has had 1 ERA+ under 100 since 2015. How many hitters have had career years at age 38? Cruz seems to have done alright at 38, 39, and 40. By your logic that was a bad signing to make. And we REALLY shouldn't bring him back at age 41. Right?

Nope, I saw the Ifs and understood all that. I just disagreed and disputed it. You replied to Seth's comment where he suggests Happ is likely the #3 and could possibly be their #1. I agreed with you that he's likely not their #1 as Seth said was possible, but being the #3 is entirely possible. I never said you said he WAS their #1 or the prospects ARE subpar. I took your IFS and refuted them. Your assumption is that IF he turns out to be their #1 it means the guys ahead of him, in your mind, coming into the year failed. That wasn't the argument Seth was trying to make that you refuted. He was suggesting that based on Happ's career, even recent years, Happ has proven to be a talented MLB pitcher and has it in him to put up very good numbers. Likely more of #3 numbers, but, like Maeda did last year, he has it in him to surprise and put up #1 numbers. What I'm saying is even your IF is not what Seth was suggesting. And you didn't say it "could be a long year" if he's their #1, you said its "gonna be." And I refuted your suggestion that IF the prospects in the minors can't come up and be top 40 pitchers in baseball the minors don't really have any prospects. I say top 40 because since 2016 Happ is #38 in fWAR. Berrios is #35 for a reference point. He's had the 28th best ERA in baseball since 2015 (minimum 100 starts). Reference points: Sonny Gray, James Paxton, JA Happ, Kenta Maeda, Marcus Stroman (stole that from this article https://theathletic.com/2335396/2021/01/21/j-a-happ-twins-free-agency-needs/). My point was that, even with IF in there, the idea that prospects, who didn't have a season last year, should be counted on to come up, fill the 5 spot, and be able to outdo those numbers shows a complete lack of understanding of how prospects should be handled and how the minors work. It's weird that you suggest a pitcher with those kinds of numbers shouldn't be relied on for more than the 5th spot on a contender, but you think a team should be able to count on rookies to fill the 5th spot on a contender. And if instead of the prospects you meant the Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer type group it is still unreasonable to expect them to be that when they haven't shown they can be. Although Dobnak has had some promising stretches. I took your IFS into consideration when disagreeing. I disagreed with it even with the ifs. Happ is not a sexy signing. When I first heard about it and saw it was 8 mil I wasn't a fan. Deeper diving into his numbers shows its actually a very reasonable deal and Seth was pretty reasonable with saying he's got a real shot at being their #3 and an outside shot at going Maeda on things and being their #1 by having a top of his ability year.

Problem with your reasoning is that you're assuming for him to be the best pitcher on the staff it means the guys you perceive as better than him have to come down to the level you perceive him at. I think Seth was suggesting he has shown the ability to pitch above the level you expect those ahead of him in the rotation to pitch at. And getting out of Yankee stadium should be a natural boost to his stats. I don't know if your comment on the minor leaguers means you think if they can't outperform him this year they're not really prospects, but I hope that isn't the case. These comment sections get so many "call up the young guys and see what we have in them" comments it's insane. You don't take someone with a 7th grade education, put them in college, watch them fail and say "see, not actually that smart." Prospects having missed an entire season shouldn't be relied upon to perform to MLB standards early this year. Calling up prospects to "see what you have in them" is a recipe for disaster. Promoting young players is a very tough balancing act. Everyone wanted Buxton up to "see what he can do" and that was a complete disaster. If your comment on the minor leaguers was referring to Dobnak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer type younger pitchers who have debuted I guess all I can say is they've shown the level they're currently at and relying on them for big roles this year would not be a move many teams with World Series aspirations would make. I'm not thrilled by this signing, but a deeper dive into Happ shows he has been more than serviceable even at his advanced age. Don't agree with Seth that he could be their #1, but #3 Pineda type seems like a reasonable expectation.

Marwin's OPS+ went from below average, but not killing you at 94 in his first year with the Twins and cratered to 68 last year. He isn't a good enough baseball player anymore. And team chemistry in the majors isn't about simply having the same guys in the same clubhouse year after year. These guys are professional athletes who are used to having guys come and go. You definitely want guys who get along and trust the guys next to them, but Marwin leaving will have no effect on the clubhouse chemistry. And running back the same team as last year is not a serious attempt at a WS. It's a team that probably competes for the playoffs, but wouldn't even be the favorite to win the division.

That, or something similar, would be my choice of offseason moves as well. Simmons is my #1 position player signing, and adding 2 starters and 2 bullpen guys would be my move. I'd love to see Cruz back, but his risk of regression mixed with his reported contract desires makes it hard to build out the team around him, unfortunately.

Most recent reports I've seen on Tanaka are that he's looking for 1 year, 15-20 mil. Also rumors that he's more than willing to go back to Japan and end his career there if he can't get that kind of money. Agree he is an intriguing signing, but I don't think he's worth 15-20.

Isn't the opposite actually true? A draft makes it so that only the teams at the top have a chance to sign the "top players." It's the main reason for drafts as it gives the worst teams the first shot at the "best" players if they can scout correctly. This auction format gives teams more options on how they want to play things. As some on here have said it gives teams a choice between quantity and quality. If you're convinced the number 1 guy is going to be a star throw your whole allotment of money at him. Or you can spread it out and try to sign as many as possible and give yourself a bunch of lottery tickets. I actually wish the draft would go to this type of format and give teams more avenues to be strategic and fill their organizations with talent how they see fit.

I think the flexibility Rooker brings is highly overstated. He's a negative defensive asset at a corner OF spot or 1B. He brings nothing defensively beyond being able to stand him out there. Better than Cruz, but not something that outweighs the offensive difference in any meaningful way. Cruz also debuted in the majors at age 24 (where he OPSed .829 if that's the only stat you want to use). That's a super small sample size and worse than Rooker's very small sample size in his age 25 debut. But Cruz's career numbers in the majors (including his very rough first few years) are .278/.347/.529/.876 with a 133 OPS+ and 22% career K rate. Rooker in the minors has slashed .267/.357/.505/.861 with 28% K rate (35% at AAA in that .933 OPS season). Thinking he's going to come into the majors and match Cruz's career numbers is a stretch. Thinking he can come up and match Cruz's numbers from the last 2 years is really out there. Stranger things have happened, but the point of my post is that expecting any of those kids, or combination of them, to come up and do what Cruz has done is bad team building. Especially now that the teams know Rooker will likely be around and will have legit scouting reports on him. If you're legitimately attempting to win a WS you don't come into the season relying on multiple rookies to replace your .308/.394/.626/1.020 168 OPS+ superstar bat. You also don't bank on that bat repeating those numbers at the age of 41. Thus the combination of the rookies and old guy that I suggested. Instead of suggesting, or hoping, a rookie with a sky high minor league K rate will come into the majors and increase his productivity across the board.

Cruz. I don't like the idea of signing long term DH only contracts unless you're getting Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz. And I don't think Ozuna is either of those guys. And while he can technically play the OF, so can I. You can put me out there, but I wouldn't be helping the team. Ozuna is a DH only moving forward and I just don't think he can replicate his 2020 stats for full years moving forward. Cruz is likely not a 162 game DH this year even. I think his end of the year slump was caused largely by his ailing knee, but as you get into your 40s you don't become less likely to have joint pain. I think he still has a good year in him and some classic Boom Stick stretches where he can carry the offense, but don't think I'd pencil him in for all 162. But he's still useful to have in the lineup and in the clubhouse on a 1 year deal. Part of his usefulness is that counting on the young guys to come up and replicate anywhere close to his numbers, or even provide above league average DH numbers, is not a smart plan going into a year you're looking to contend. Rooker has never put up Cruz like numbers in the minors so why would we think he'd suddenly do it in the majors? He looked really good for a week in the majors, but that literally means nothing. The league is going to have scouting reports on him now and he's going to have to adjust from the jump this year. It's time for the young guys to start getting their chances, but don't do it without a safety net. Cruz provides a nice 1 year (throw in an option year again if he really wants it) safety net for the kids. He can get the majority of the DH ABs as long as he's proving to be useful while also helping mentor the young kids. Cruz and Donaldson are both professional hitters who have shown they're more than willing to work with the young guys and disseminate the wisdom that have helped them both produce at very high levels. Put Cruz in the DH spot for 2021, but give him some regular rest while cycling other guys through to keep him as healthy as he can at 41 years old and getting everyone who needs/disserves them regular ABs. Cruz is the perfect veteran safety net as the team works to contend while continuing to look to be competitive for the years to come.

Looks like I'm going to have to post similar things in a lot of posts today. Nelson Cruz is not going to sign anywhere until the league announces if the NL will have a DH. All of his leverage hangs on that decision. The Twins will pay him 10-12 per year now because nobody else is bidding on him. If the NL gets the DH he will have multiple suiters and can demand 15-17 mil per year. Why would the Twins sign him to a deal for more than they have to and why would he accept a lower deal without knowing he has to? Why is the assumption that since no team in the league outside of the just sold Mets has spent any money on the FA market the Twins are somehow being "sure of themselves?" The Padres spent in trades, sure. So 2 teams have spent any real money so far, but somehow the Twins are being ridiculous? Cruz won't sign until the NL announcement is made and no other bats will move until DJ LeMahieu or JT Realmuto sign. The Twins aren't signing those guys so they are waiting the market out like every other team not looking at those guys is doing. Welcome to the business world.

Nelson Cruz is not going to sign anywhere until after the league announces if the NL is going to have the DH. Doesn't make any sense for him to. Has nothing to do with the Twins. Odo isn't going to sign until Bauer does. Makes no sense for him to. Why set the market as a perceived lower level pitcher instead of waiting for Bauer to do it? Especially when Odo has had incredibly similar numbers to Bauer outside of Bauer's 2 outlier years (2020 being the most questionable in a shortened season where his spin rates went through the roof). Bauer isn't going to be a Twin because his 1 short season breakout at the age of 29 is not worth 35+ mil/year. Bauer has had 2 seasons with an ERA+ over 109. And if you listen to him over the years you'd question that 2020 breakout when he has constantly said the only way to increase your spin rate is to put a foreign substance on the ball. Then suddenly in his FA walk year his spin rate goes through the roof for 11 starts? I don't think I'm throwing 35 mil a year at a guy who had only 1 other year under a 4 ERA prior to that. Bauer is name over production and a terrible investment. The pitching market won't move until Bauer does. Every agent out there has their guy's numbers lined up with his and are just waiting for him to get drastically overpaid so they can go into every meeting saying "look what he got, and my guy has had a similar or better career, show me the money." The 3 worth while SS FAs are all looking to get maximum $ while no team wants to overpay to set the market. This is a very predictably slow offseason as teams look to save money and those willing to spend wait til the end to maximize their dollars on cheaper deals than they'd likely have had to do by signing guys early. Business of baseball.

The Clevinger point is that you're changing the rules of the debate to fit your narrative. You said developing is when you draft someone then they make it to the majors with you. Bringing up Celvinger was to question that premise. We don't know yet if they've figured out minor league development, but now is when we find out. They're showing up and we're going to see. They clearly figured things out at the major league level by improving the performance of a number of outside players they've brought in to the tune of the second best ERA in baseball last year and brought in a guy that immediately turned into the Cy Young runner up. You can choose to see that as completely separate from minor league acquisition and development, but I'd argue that, combined with Falvey being very involved in the Cleveland program that continues to churn out front line starters, it provides a reason for hope that they know how to identify and develop pitching talent. We'll find out over the next few years.

Clevinger was drafted by the Dodgers before being traded to Cleveland so does Cleveland not get credit for developing him? Why does it matter if they drafted them in 1st round, drafted them in the 5th round, signed them from Cuba, traded for them, or signed them from the Saints? Taking them from the bottom of the minors to the majors is developing them. The job of the FO is to acquire players, build a staff of development talent to improve those players, and put the best team on the field for the amount of money their owner lets them spend. Claiming Wisler and turning him into a weapon, trading for Maeda and improving his numbers to a Cy Young level, trading for Odo, signing Pineda, bringing back Thielbar, the list goes on. This front office seems to have proven they can identify talent on the field and in the coaching department and mesh them together. That's their job. So Gore for Lewis. That's it? They made 1 mistake on taking a bat over a pitcher? Lewis and Greene were the top 2 guys in that draft pretty unanimously. So, in hindsight, maybe Gore turns into the better major leaguer, but he wouldn't have been the #1 pick it would have been Greene. Would you rather have Greene than Lewis? And, again, Gore hasn't even reached the majors yet despite having been drafted during the Falvine era. So your number 1 example doesn't even fit your criteria. Is there 1 pitcher in the first round that the Twins could have drafted during the time Falvine was running drafts that has been developed into an above average starter? I don't see any. The point of this article is that the Falvine guys are arriving. Now we get to see if they've got minor league pitching development figured out.

Starting Lewis in the bigs and having him play twice a week should get a FO fired. That is an awful way to see if a kid is ready or give them the chance to continue to develop. Put him in the minors where he can get everyday at bats and work on his game until a spot is open due to injury or trade in the majors or he dominates so much he makes it clear he's the best option. Top prospects should never be sitting on your major league bench 5 days a week. Never.

This FO hasn't repeatedly failed in developing top rotation starters. The previous regime did and they got fired for it. This regime took that awful staff and turned it into a pitching staff with the second best ERA in baseball last year. Now the prospects that they have targeted in trade and the draft, or developed in their system as holdovers from the previous regime, are starting to arrive. Alcala, Duran, Balazovic, and Colina all look like they'll be part of the pen or rotation this year or next. Enloy, Canterino, Sands are right behind them next year or the year after. Are any of them destined for greatness? Who knows. Are Gore or McKay? Who knows. McKay is older than all of those guys and hasn't established himself as some great major leaguer yet. Gore clearly hasn't established himself as ready to step into the Padres rotation either or they wouldn't be out there going after guys and he would've likely gotten a look when all their guys were getting hurt last year. So not sure those comps are really proving your point. First round pitchers since Falvine took over (Bold are picks after Twins so they could've taken): Hunter Greene MacKenzie Gore Brendan McKay Kyle Wright Shane Baz Trevor Rogers JB Bukauskas Clarke Schmidt Alex Faedo David Peterson DL Hall Tanner Houck Seth Romero Brendon Little Casey Mize Ryan Weathers Carter Stewart Grayson Rodriguez Logan Gilbert Cole Winn Matthew Liberatore Brady Singer Ryan Rolison Mason Denaburg JT Ginn Nick Lodolo Alek Manoah Jackson Rutledge Quinn Priester Zack Thompson George Kirby Daniel Espino Blake Walston Ryan Jensen Ethan Small Max Meyer Asa Lacy Emerson Hancock Reid Detmers Garret Crochet Mick Abel Bryce Jarvis Cade Cavalli Nick Bitsko Jared Shuster Bobby Miller Not exactly a ton of guys in there you can be terribly upset about them passing on for Lewis, Larnach, Cavaco, Sabato. Meanwhile the great Cleveland pitching machine has turned out Aaron Civale 3rd round. Shane Bieber 4th round. Mike Clevinger 4th round. Zach Plesac 12th round. Now that doesn't mean they shouldn't be looking to add multiple arms to the rotation and pen, but the idea that they haven't proven they can develop pitching and should be using high picks on them to solve that seems pretty far off. I read the point of this article as chasing Bauer for 5 years 150 mil type signings aren't necessary as we have a handful of people knocking on the door with Maeda and Berrios locked up for a little while still. Again, second best ERA in baseball last year. I'm an advanced stats guy, but if the goal is to give up the fewest runs possible second best in ERA is a pretty good place to be. They have work left to do this offseason on the pitching front, but the pitching hasn't let them down the last 2 postseasons, the offense has. I don't care about the previous teams run by previous coaches and FO. They have nothing to do with the current regime. The current regime has done a great job putting together pitching staffs and there is no real argument against it.

I think the frustrating part is that the Twins and the Padres are pretty similar in their payroll abilities. The Pads will be about 150 this year and I think we all would have expected that from the Twins in a normal 2021. The Pads are doing what I think we all wish the Twins would and treating 2020 as an outlier loss year and taking advantage of the most obvious market inefficiency ever...90% of the league trying to cut money. They are mixing their young, cheap talent (to be fair Twins don't have a Tatis Jr) with expensive veterans to build a complete team. If Kiriloff, Larnach, Lewis, Balazovich, and Duran all hit (not likely, unfortunately) they will be in a spot to have 5 uber cheaper core players for the next 3 years and reasonably priced for the 3 or 4 after that. The Pads believed in their system and took swings on Meyers, Hosmer, and Machado before they saw what all their kids could do and now they're doubling down. Would be fun to see the Twins do the same. If you think Kiriloff and Larnach are ready to be above average MLB bats pencil them in and take a chance or 2 on guys to fill other holes. If you think Lewis is ready some point this year don't spend on a utility IF and make a splash with a deal for Castellanos and Castillo. The Twins could do what the Pads are doing. I get why they aren't, but man it must be fun to be a Padre fan today.

If Gordon and a low level flier gets it done I'd be all for the gold glove defense, power bat, and shot of adrenaline attitude Javy would bring for next year. But I'm not a fan of trading anything "significant" for 1 year rentals. I don't see how the Twins could afford him, but if there's a chance they could extend Javy (or Story, Cleveland will never trade us Lindor) I'd be much more willing to give up something a little more substantial. I think the top 5 guys should be untouchable unless you're bringing back a controllable MLB asset, but you could talk me into 2 guys between 5 and 15 and a low level flier or 2 for Baez if there's a realistic chance they'd dish out the dough necessary to lock him up long term. Or in that scenario it'd be interesting to see what else the Cubs may ask for if it was a Javy for Jorge swap. Polanco at his current deal is a steal if he's his usual self so swapping SS with a plan to extend Javy is interesting to me. But I don't see anyway the Twins would pay for an elite SS so at this point I'd prefer to sign Simmons to a 2 year deal and cross my fingers Lewis can stick at short.

I think it's more likely Sabato is DHing in 2024 than the Twins extending Sano. Don't see any reason to think he'll ever get his Ks under control and, even with the mammoth HRs, he won't be worth the price of extending him over paying Sabato, or Larnach/Rooker/Kiriloff/rotating DH, league minimum at the time. Think we'll see someone other than Donaldson at 3B by then, too. Cavaco maybe ready to make his debut at some point in 2024? Probably more likely that Polanco is seeing time there with Lewis at SS (think the Twins are determined to keep him there if it's at all possible as they have way more OF youngsters at this time). If I'm right about Sano and Lewis I think there's a chance Buxton is still roaming CF in 2024 as I think they'd prefer to extend him over Sano if Buxton shows any ability at all to stay healthy and play 130+ games a year. Jeffers, Kiriloff, Arraez, Larnach, Lewis, and Kepler all feel like guys the Twins have no interest in moving and will be the core of the lineup come 2024 with the rest being questionable to still be around and the team being more open to trading or replacing by 2024. I think they want Polanco to be first half of 2019 Polanco and lock him into a spot in the lineup, but just not sure they trust that to happen or that he'll be able to hold down any defensive spot by then. And don't think they'll want to pay the prices for Donaldson or Sano and Buxton is just a total wild card.

Does Semien demand a 2 year deal to avoid the avalanche of FA superstar SS next year? Does he take a discount to get that second year? He's an interesting player as he is the definition of a 1 year wonder, but that 1 year was incredible. I'd personally prefer Simmons as I trust his glove and contact bat over Semien ever reproducing his 2019 numbers, but for the right price I'd take a shot at Semien being a slight upgrade at SS and Polanco being a huge upgrade at utility IF over Marwan or Ehire. But like everything else about the Twins, it comes down to the $.

Yeah, not sure why them having been non-tendered separates them from other free agents. I'd love Archie Bradley and David Dahl. Dahl has 3 years of control left. If you think giving him extra rest can keep him on the field he's absolutely worth going after. Obviously the price has to be right for any free agent, but a blanket statement of not signing non-tendered players doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Carlos Rodon is an interesting piece to add as another lefty in the bullpen if they think a move to the pen and a tweak or 2 can keep him healthy and performing to expectations. Maikel Franco is intriguing as insurance for the oft injured Sano and Donaldson corner IF duo. Kyle Schwarber is worth talking to with the ceiling he has with the bat. Eddie Rosario at a reduced rate is something I think almost every team would be interested in. As far as non-tendered (or FAs in general) hitters go, I think a lot of that comes down to Cruz. If you're bringing him back you don't have the same flexibility to get guys ABs by cycling through the DH spot. If he's not retained signing one of the FA bats as insurance against the early struggles you'd predict for the kids makes a ton of sense. There weren't any great utility guys non-tendered so probably looking at other FAs or trades there. But overall there's no reason not to go after non-tenders the same way you'd go after any other FA. In fact, it may make more sense to go after the right ones who have more years of team control left and can be gotten on the cheap now.

Schwarber is not even close to the K machine Sano is. Not advocating to sign him, but to me it's more about him being LH than about the Ks. SO%: Career: Sano- 37% Schwarber- 28% Best Season: Sano- 35.5% Schwarber- 25.6% Worst Season: Sano- 43.9% Schwarber- 30.9% Schwarber may not be the best fit for the roster (LH hitting corner OF is something we have plenty of), but he is not a strikeout machine.

Well not having to cover player salaries would be a boost to the bottom line I'd think. The Twins can help cover the 20 mil, and I'm sure that's a large part of any negotiations happening. A bad AAA team is still better baseball than any team the Saints have ever run out there. People go now without it being a Twins affiliate and with it being less skilled baseball. I'd think there's a reason teams pay the 20 mil to become affiliated. If being independent like the Saints is the better move why would any team sign on to be affiliated? I can name you 2 dozen minor league affiliates and own merchandise from a half dozen. None of which are Twins affiliates. Being linked to MLB gives you further reach and I'd assume increases merchandise and ad revenue. Not crazy drastically, and maybe not even enough to take on the risk of the Twins kicking you to the curb in 5 years, but I don't think there's any question that not having to pay your players and adding even a little merchandise and ad revenue would be good for any team's bottom line. Just don't get why any team would sign up for it if it's a worse business decision than being independent.

They should certainly be worried about MLB and what moves they may make to control things, but why do you feel $20 mil is too much? I'd assume there's a path to significant revenue increases by being affiliated and having a more national brand while playing in front of larger road crowds and getting Twins fans who don't currently care about the Saints more interested.

I would be shocked if the Mets aren't a major player this winter. They have the bones of a solid team and the new owner will want to make a statement by surrounding those guys with a few splash signings. I'm not predicting the Twins will follow this strategy, but it is one the front office should present to the Pohlads and see if they can sneak a few extra dollars out of them for a big swing this season. The Reds would be another team who desperately wants to be a threat in the playoffs and could look at bringing in a few 1 year guys. The Twins have a playoff caliber core and need to win a playoff game soon. Even the Pohlads understand that. They could definitely lean on the local government and get some assurances that there will be fans in the stands in 2021. If they know they'll have 50% capacity allowed they have to assume they'll fill that capacity every game as fans crave the chance to get back out to games and back to "normal." I'm not suggesting they go out and spend 200 mil on payroll, but if there's ever a year worth taking a risk this is it. They have young players almost ready or ready for the show that they believe in but don't want to rely on completely. They need bridge veterans on 1 year deals to provide insurance and allow for some growing pains. With the market depressed things are lining up perfectly to snag some guys they normally couldn't get on 1 year deals. Nothing in their history suggests the Twins will take a financial risk, but if there was ever a year to do it this is it and I hope Falvine is pushing for something like this.