chpettit19

Are fans seeing other organizations saying more than the Twins do? I'm seriously surprised every time I see these kinds of comments. The fans want the Twins to win, but they also want them to give all their secrets away publicly so they have an idea of what's going on. Why in the world would Rocco come out before a game and say Buxton, or any player, isn't feeling 100% that day so that's why he won't be stealing bases today? Why would you ever come out and tell your competitors which players are struggling with what during the season? Why would you ever tell your competitors what your team building strategy is? I seriously don't understand why fans think the Twins should, or would, do this. "Hey, be more competitive, but also tell the whole world how you're going to do it!" is a weird stance to me. Seriously don't understand what fans think the team would gain from that.

Interesting counter to the "Trading Gio Was a Mistake" article from yesterday. Even if it wasn't planned that way. That doesn't look a like team with no hopes against lefties because the roster was so horribly mismanaged by having Gallo instead of Gio! It's nice to have some real numbers shown instead of just mentioning which hand a guy hits with as if it's impossible for a lefty to face another lefty successfully. Edit to add: It'd be interesting to see what the league has done lefty on lefty since the new 3 hitter rule. There are far fewer LOOGYs now than there used to be since lefties need to be able to get righties out as well now. So I'd be curious if the splits have lowered and lefties are actually becoming more successful against LHPs. I don't know if I'd predict that's happened, but it'd be an interesting look.

There really is a lot going on in there. But to me it sounds like pretty normal "we literally broke, and then shaved down, your bone" stuff. I'd think soreness is to be expected. 50-60 swings a day is encouraging. "Pain" would be a scarier word to me than "soreness," but that just may be my brain trying to make the best of it all. This is probably it for him so I really hope this surgery worked and he's back to hitting lasers all over the field this year!

I hope they put Polanco between Buxton and Correa due to his pretty severe splits. I want him facing as many righties as possible and putting him between those 2 would pretty much guarantee the other team is never using their lefty relievers against that part of the order. I also think Larnach starts the year higher in the order than Kirilloff, and hopefully Kepler. I'm not sure how much faith I have in them being willing to sit Kepler or Gallo early, but I hope this spring training means more than most and there's a true competition for those corner OF and DH spots. Not necessarily spring stats, but who's hitting the ball the hardest, and looking best prepared to start the season. The IF, and Buxton, look pretty well set right now, but the cOF and DH jobs should be a true spring competition in my eyes. Love the Lee and Lewis idea, although I'd split the 2 lefty bats in that lineup for sure. Probably put 2 guys between Polanco, Kirilloff, and Kepler/Gallo/Gordon to put a whole lot more pressure on the other manager to decide when to use their lefty. Many teams only carrying 1 lefty these days with the 3 hitter rule so not sure why you'd make it so easy on them by stacking your lefties in that order. It'd also be interesting to see who is jettisoned in that roster configuration. Farmer is under control for 2024 as well, I believe, while Gallo isn't. I think I'd rather see them move on from Kepler or Gallo than Farmer. Sunday getaway and massive injury lineups make me sad so I won't even comment on them.

I'm a little confused on people's confusion about trying to get more power out of a guy. The idea isn't to turn a .270-.300 no power hitter into a .200-.230 30 HR guy. The idea is to turn a .270-.300 no power hitter into a .270-.300 guy with some power. It'd be doing the player a disservice if they didn't try to add more tools to his tool belt. It may not have worked with Martin and that's totally fine. Now you let him be the .270-.300 no power hitter and run with that. But taking a high contact guy and trying to add power is draft and development 101. It's what got him drafted #5 overall. Many people on these boards were upset the Twins took Cavaco over Carroll. Carroll was a high average, no power bat with speed. Now he's a high average, with power bat with speed and he's a top 1 or 2 prospect in baseball. It doesn't work with everyone, but 1st round picks are supposed to be your top end talents. It's why we get upset about Sabato type picks. It's, if we're being honest, likely why Brooks Lee fell to 8. He's never going to be the athlete the hitters who went ahead of him will be, and likely won't add much power to his game. Adding tools is the entire idea of the minor leagues. Trying to add power made sense. Just didn't work as completely as they wanted. Although, a .482 slugging in the AFL isn't nothing. So maybe they did boost his power a little and that changes his outlook dramatically. If he slugs .430 in the bigs he's a borderline all star. A right handed Brandon Nimmo. If he slugs in the .300s he's a nice utility player. Not trying to get a little more power out of him would've been a shame.

Yeah, I literally said "or Miranda slides over." I haven't seen a single report that Gallo might platoon with Kirilloff, but you're running with that. I've seen them mention that Gallo can, and has, play(ed) 1B, but nothing that they're planning a platoon. Why would Farmer being the platoon raise the question of Urshela being moved? Farmer can play SS, Urshela can't. Farmer can catch, Urshela can't. Farmer played 1B as recently as last year. He played 2B in 2021. He even played LF in 2021. Urshela isn't doing any of that. Farmer replaced Gio, Gallo didn't. Gallo replaced Garlick. They have a bunch of LH cOF who can't stay healthy, and/or haven't proven themselves. Could they replace 1 of them with a righty? Sure. But you've said "they could have put this roster together a whole lot better" like switching out 1 lefty for 1 righty is some gigantic thing. It's 1 roster spot. Let's keep some perspective here. Gallo might, but that'll be against righties in place of Kirilloff. What do you think Farmer's role is on this team? Bench guy who only sees the field when someone is hurt? They have 4 righty IFers and a switch hitter. Farmer and Miranda are the 1B platoon. Larnach is the opening day DH. That's a position you seem to be ignoring. Gordon is their super utility guy. Is Rocco suddenly going to try to get 160 starts out of 9 guys, or is he still the guy who will give planned rest days to 100% of the players on the roster and make sure he plays everyone a bunch? Why are people concerned about playing time? The most obvious thing the Twins do is rotate players constantly.

Yeah, I don't think it's as big of a concern as others do, but I get the cOF/1B/DH complaint. I just don't get why a 3B is being brought into this. I mean Kyle Garlick fits better into this argument. He's the righty bat who plays cOF/DH and is a pure platoon bat against lefties. He's a better fit on this roster than Gio is. I'm not really even pushing back on the "too many LH cOF" argument. I'm just pushing back on Gio being the comp when he doesn't play that position, and I don't want him as my DH.

Yeah, I don't know if they prefer to keep Miranda at 3B as much as possible or if they'll bounce him back and forth some. I wouldn't be surprised either way. I mentioned Buxton getting a lot of DH days against lefties. I'd guess that's probably the plan now. I won't be surprised at all if they do have some games with Buxton in CF, Taylor in LF, and a catcher at DH, though. Farmer having literally caught games in the majors is a really nice #3 catcher situation to have. They're definitely lefty heavy right now, but I don't think it's outrageous. 2 lefties in a lineup against lefty starters isn't earth shattering stuff.

Gallo will spell Kirilloff, or replace him, against righties, not lefties. Kyle Farmer is the logical platoon role (or Miranda slides over and Farmer mans 3B). I'm really confused by your stance that Gallo is going to platoon with Kirilloff. Larnach, as of today, is the opening day DH. Like you seem to just be making up scenarios to fit your narrative. The argument you could try to make is that Gio would make it so Miranda could DH against lefties. But that's not what you're saying. Gallo is Kirilloff's backup plan, not platoon. I mean your article is literally Gio vs Gallo. "Why sign Joey Gallo at all as opposed to keeping Gio Urshela" is a direct quote from you. That's not making this Gio vs Gallo? You took the Gio trade and Gallo signing and built an article around it. Gallo vs Kepler I get. I think we all expected Kepler to be gone by now. But Gio doesn't play corner OF and Gallo and Kepler don't play 3B. So I don't get why you're pulling him into this. Why not just write that Gallo and Kepler are redundant and stick with that comparison? Why bring in a guy who doesn't play the same position?

Why do you think Gallo is going to have to play 1B for playing time? Who's going to be playing out of position? Vs Righties: C- Vazquez 1B- Kirilloff (he's the last option in the cOF now) 2B- Polanco 3B- Miranda SS- Correa LF- Gallo CF- Buxton RF- Kepler DH- Larnach Bench- Gordon, Farmer, Jeffers, Taylor Vs Lefties C- Jeffers 1B- Farmer 2B- Polanco 3B- Miranda SS- Correa LF- Gallo CF- Buxton RF- Taylor DH- Larnach Bench- Gordon, Kepler, Vazquez, Kirilloff If Gallo is bad Gordon takes LF. Maybe they actually DH Jeffers or Vazquez against lefties since Farmer can hop behind the plate if needed. Or Buxton probably gets a lot of DH days against lefties with Taylor in CF. I don't see the connection between Gio and Gallo. I get the argument that they're too left handed in the corner outfield, but Gallo isn't the platoon with Kirilloff, Farmer is. Gio on this team instead of Gallo doesn't fix anything since they play different positions. Really it's more Gallo over Garlick since Garlick is the guy he actually replaced as a cOFer. But Gallo's ability to step into 1B if Kirilloff can't go actually makes a ton of sense. Otherwise you were looking at Kepler moving there probably. The Arraez trade and the Farmer trade have way, way, way more connection to the Gio trade than the Gallo signing.

Why are we comparing Gio to Gallo? Wasn't the swap really Gio for Farmer?

Just wanted to get everyone's Sunday started on a high note of hope and possibility!

I know, but I realized after I wrote it all out that I'd just written war and didn't want to go back and add f to them all so just used the disclaimer. I don't expect them all to be great. Buxton will be hurt. Kepler won't get any significant boost (the idea that he's going to hit 40 or 50 points higher that some suggest is crazy to me). And Gallo isn't turning back into an all star. I don't think they're banking on significant improvements from those 3. They'd enjoy them, but aren't expecting it. "The plan" is the youth. And if that fails it dooms the team for years. Larnach, Kirilloff, Lewis, Martin, Wallner, and/or Gordon taking Kepler and Gallo's jobs is the plan. And the need. But handing that group all starting spots destroys all depth so you have to start with some veterans. The scary world to imagine for me is Kirilloff's career basically ending because his wrist simply won't work. Larnach being hurt again, and not claiming a starting spot. Gordon turning back into a pumpkin. Lewis not being the same athlete, and thus losing his star potential. Martin being regular season Martin, and not AFL Martin. And Wallner being Gallo with the bat but no defense. Now that's scary.

Isn't that kind of the exact point of their current plan? Instead of having just those 3 guys they have Taylor, Larnach, Kirilloff, Gordon, Martin, Lewis, and Wallner as possibilities. I don't think they have any expectation that the shift ban will lead to Kepler's offense being "saved." I don't think they're expecting Gallo to go back to being Texas Gallo, but they're hoping he's somewhere in between which is a MLB worthy cOFer. 2 WAR out of Kepler (he's been worth that each of the last 2 years even while he's been bad at the plate), 4 out of Buxton (he's been worth that each of the last 2 years even while missing significant time), and 2 WAR out of Gallo (that's between his 4 WAR 2021 and .6 WAR 2022) gives them 8 WAR out of those 3. That would've put them in the top 12 OFs in baseball in 2022. They accumulated 7.8 WAR to finish 13th last year with Cave, Tim Beckham, Celestino, Contreras, and Billy Hamilton getting ABs in their OF. So a pretty reasonable estimate on those 3 is 8 WAR, or a top 12 OF. And their primary backups are no longer AAA or AAAA at best players, but guys with legitimate arguments for being MLB players (plus Martin). Gordon had 1.5 WAR last year so even if Gallo doesn't get 2 he's backed up by Gordon who could get close to it. Even a trio of Buxton, Kepler, and Gordon is 7.5 WAR which would've still been 13th in baseball last year. Larnach got 1.1 WAR in only 51 games, some of which he was injured for. I'm not seeing the "woof" in this scenario. *All WAR numbers are Fangraphs

I think they're hoping for Gallo's 2021 season, and don't care about him hitting .225 vs .200. They'd be pretty happy with him being an All Star and winning a Gold Glove. Like he did in 2021. They traded a veteran to open space for Miranda to be the everyday 3B so I'm pretty sure they're not kicking that can down the road. Kirilloff and Larnach have never stayed healthy in the bigs, did you want them to have 2 guys who can't play more than a month or 2 of healthy ball as their primary cOF? Lewis won't be ready until June and has had back to back ACL surgeries. I'm the biggest Lewis supporter on this site, but not even I think they should clear the way for him before the season even starts. Julien has never played above AA. Martin hasn't either, and he had 1 ok month while he was there. Wallner needs all kinds of defensive work that can be done in AAA while he's the primary depth for the cOF spots in the majors. This is exactly how good teams are run. Handing jobs to Wallner, Martin, Lewis, and Julien would've been the worst possible move they could've made. What happens when one of them (or Larnach or Kirilloff) fails or gets hurt? Call up you and me to cover for them? You want Jake Cave and Tim Backham running around the OF again? Young guys are depth and take jobs. Like Miranda took Urshela's. They aren't handed them. That's an awful way to build a team. Ober got 92 innings in that lost 2021 season. Jax got 82. That was 5th and 6th on the team. Joe Ryan debuted. Lewis Thorpe got another chance. Larnach debuted and got 79 games. Kirilloff got 59. Gordon got 73. Rooker 58. Rortvedt 39. Celestino played 23. It's almost like a whole bunch of young guys debuted and played a pretty decent amount of games in 2021 where they, according to you, refused to play young guys over veterans all season.

Your eyes aren't lying to you about their fundamentals. They were absolutely brutal on the bases last year. I'm hoping there's some real improvement in the fundamentals. Gallo is a good base runner. Correa is actually really bad, but feels like he's smart enough to be better. And there's some better athletes making their way to Minneapolis so I'm hoping overall it's better all around to watch. The rental player stuff is an interesting part I've never really worried much about, because I'm a baseball nerd who pays attention to the entire league far more than the average fan. But it's been brought up by numerous people and I agree it's not ideal for building fan excitement. Wins tend to wipe away a lot of sins, but I do think it's smart to have more homegrown, long-term players that the fans can really connect with. I hope the short-term players has been more out of need than plan. They have a prospect wave arriving that needs to stay healthy and produce. If they do I think we see fewer Gallo signings and Urshela/Sanchez trades. Correa and Buxton leading the way with Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Julien, etc. would give them a nice position player base for us to fall in love with and have around for half a decade plus. Now we just need them all to stay healthy and produce!

In 2022 Larnach saw 4-seamers 31.4% of the time and hit .268 off them. Had a .464 slugging off them. He saw sliders 21.1% of the time and hit .281 off them. Had a .500 slugging off them. So I guess he learned to hit at least 1 kind of breaking ball. He was also one of the top rated cOF defenders in baseball last year. He does really struggle to hit changeups, though. I think you're going to struggle to find any experts who are predicting a 30-40 point bump to any BA from the shift rule. Especially someone who hits as many popups and soft grounders as Kepler. I certainly hope he hits around .260, but I'm going to take Larnach's bat over Kepler's in 2023 without much question at all. Not to mention Larnach was also shifted on quite a bit (72.4% of the time) so wouldn't we expect his numbers to also go up?

I agree there's some real questions on the offensive floor of this outfield, but I think you're selling other teams short on just how bad their OFs are. The Twins played all of September with a bunch of guys who had no business being on a major league field manning the OF grass in Minneapolis. Played most of the season without Kirilloff or Larnach. And still ended with the 16th best wRC+ amongst major league OFs in 2022. Offensive fWAR for the group was -3.6, which I don't think surprises anyone. But that was 19th in baseball. Miami had -41.2 fWAR and Colorado was at -41.4 to bring up the rear. Oakland also brutally bad. Texas, Cinci, Detroit, KC, Bos, Pit, and the White Sox all were worse than the Twins who had Tim freaking Beckham and Billy Hamilton forced into their OF lineup along with world beaters Mark Contreras, Jake Cave, and Kyle Garlick. Their OF offense has the chance of being very bad next year (if injuries are bad and bounce backs don't happen), but nowhere near the worst in baseball. Their defense was good enough to carry that brutal group to 13th best in fWAR for OF groups in baseball last year. If the defense gets up to 7+ fWAR this year like Arizona's was last year it'd make them a top 5 overall unit easy. Seems pretty plausible to me.

I struggle with what I think they'll do with Kepler. It's hard to compare this season to the previous seasons, because the previous seasons had his possible replacements as Cave, Contreras, Celestino, and Garlick types. Larnach and Kirilloff were both getting run even with Kepler around before they got hurt. It's hard to point to those situations and say Rocco/Falvine won't have Kepler as the 4th or 5th OFer early now that his possible replacements are Gordon, Larnach, Taylor, and Kirilloff. I see 4 spots that Kepler, Gallo, Larnach, Gordon, and Kiriloff are battling for in ST. LF, RF, 1B, DH (vs righties). Do I think Kepler likely has a leg up on RF on 2/3/23? Probably. But I don't think it's a huge advantage by any means. I mean it sure sounds like they were actively trying to trade him, but didn't get any good offers. If that's the case I'd think they probably don't see him as the ideal option in RF for a winning team in 2023. I think it's probably a pretty tight race between those 5 for those 4 spots going into ST. Injuries are a real concern with 3 of them (Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff) and I think it actually makes sense to carry Kepler into the season. But I'm not sold on Wallner, and would prefer he starts the year in St Paul. Beyond him I'm not sure who people would be clamoring to have on the roster to start the year. I think the smart thing to do is have real depth in AAA for the first time I can remember. They're trying to win, and trading Kepler only to watch Kirilloff's wrist act up (probably ends his career and I hate even thinking about it), Larnach to go down again, and Gallo not bounce back would be brutal. I think we put too much emphasis on "Opening Day Roster" like that means those 26 guys are going to play 90% of the time or something. They need 50 guys worth of depth. I don't know why we think Gordon, Larnach, Wallner, et al will be held back dramatically by having a 2 WAR player on the roster opening day. They're all going to get time and play plenty.

I think they'll all be allowed to go 80+ right from the start. With a shortened spring training last year Joe Ryan still came out throwing 70 (4 innings), 82 (6), 85 (6), 90 (7) pitches per start in his 4 April starts. Gray threw 76 (4.2) in his first start, but was hurt in his 2nd. Paddack went 73 (4), 71 (5), 87 (5.2), 81 (5.1) in his first 4. That's an average of 79 pitches, and 5.1 innings, per start in April for the 3 guys who were any good in the rotation last year. If they were at basically 80 pitches and 5 innings per start coming off a shortened spring training I hope they can do at least that coming off a full spring training. I don't care what they "owe" Maeda, but you're never signing a guy to an incentive heavy deal again if your stance is "we don't owe you anything and will cost you nearly $10 million by not allowing you any chance at all to reach those incentives." Edit: Sorry, I skipped over the Ober part. But I wouldn't be upset with that Ober plan. He's a really hard decision for me. I don't want to lose another season of his to injury, but I also think he's a good pitcher that would be really nice to have in the rotation. Tough spot for him and Winder for me. Talent, but just can't seem to stay healthy. Canterino is already fully in my "move him to the pen" book, which sucks. But hopefully him and Duran can form a filthy 1-2 punch for the next half decade plus once Canterino is healthy again.

You can't put a guy with Maeda's contract in the pen. At least not at the start of the year. And I trust Lopez. At least enough to start the year with him as my closer. Not saying you have to trust him, but somebody trusts him.

Then what was Maeda's role in the pen? You want 2 long relief guys? I'm not saying that's a terrible idea, just curious. I'd hope the rotation is stable enough this year (and I think they will be) that there shouldn't be a need for 2 long guys in the pen, and an extra 1 inning 6th, 7th, or 8th inning guy would be more valuable. I expect this rotation to get through 5 or 6 innings almost every night based on talent (injuries obviously can screw a game up quick). With 8 pen guys and a rotation that is getting 5 or 6 a night I'd only have 1 long guy in the pen, and mine would actually be Ober (I don't trust him to hold up under a starter's workload) or Pagan (for 2 inning spurts). My spot starter would be the AAA rotation. If/when Ober gets hurt, or is put into the rotation because 1 of them gets hurt, Winder would be first in line (as of now) to take Ober's spot in Minneapolis as the long guy. Rotation: Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda Pen: Duran, Jax, Lopez, Thielbar, Alcala, Moran, Pagan, Ober AAA Rotation: Varland, SWR, Winder, Balazovic, Headrick/Dobnak if Headrick starts at AA Pen: Megill, Sands, Henriquez, Coulombe, De Leon, Dobnak, Ortega, Shulfer That's how I'd have it as of today. The Twins are going to need 10+ starters this year. Like every other team. I'm not worried about forcing the young guys in the rotation to start the season. If they average 25 starts (feels reasonable) between the starters that's 125 starts. That leaves 37 starts for Ober, Varland, SWR, and Winder. Almost 10 starts a guy I think is plenty to get their feet wet and "establish themselves" for 2024. A Paddack style blown elbow 6 starts into the season for someone opens 26 more starts for those young guys. I think the Twins have their rotation setup perfectly to try to win in 2023, and get young guys experience.

Which I don't have a real problem with, except you switched Winder in for him who hasn't ever been as good as Alcala. Seemingly simply because Winder is 26. Alcala has 100% "earned" a spot over Winder on the opening day roster if you're trying to win baseball games.

I mean Alcala is "only" 27 so not sure why he'd be the one to go to AAA over guys like Winder and Varland. I think the expectation should absolutely be a division title and winning some playoff games. Whether those 3 are in the minors or not. They have 4 veterans + Ryan in the rotation. I don't get why you'd move any of them just because Ober, Winder, and Varland are 27, 26, and 25. None of those guys are good enough prospects to make a hole in the rotation for. And 2 of them have a lot to do to show they can stay even reasonably healthy for a year. Ober is the only one I see as having a real gripe about being sent to AAA because of his MLB performance, but he's never stayed healthy in pro ball. Those other 2 are exactly what teams look for in depth pieces because they know they're going to need at least 10 starters on the year.

Maeda isn't going to start the year in the pen, he's in the rotation. More likely Ober starts the year in AAA, or the pen. And I'd be surprised if they had Winder in the big league pen and not the AAA rotation instead of Alcala in the big league pen. But I can also see why they aren't looking to bring in another arm. Although, I'd like to bring in Chafin if it's possible. I'm not sold on Thielbar maintaining his production at 36 and would prefer Moran starts in AAA (even though I think he can be a stud) with Thielbar and Chafin in the bigs to provide a little more depth. But I'd be good waiting until I get Paddack on the 60-day to try to sign Chafin.